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© Hedgeye Risk Management LLC.
REARVIEW REPORT: JULY = The Peak in the Countertrend Bounce
Data Source: Factset
Is July setting up as a January redux? Yes, (very) Probably
44
JULY
• Peak AI Euphoria
• Peak “Barbenheimer”
• Peak Summer Concert (Swift, Beyonce, etc)
• Sub 7% Mortgage Rates
• Trough In Gas Prices
• Peak in Equity Prices
• 12-month/cycle low in the Savings Rate
….. All of those are either nonrecurring or
have since reversed
7.43%
1.37%
2.58%
2.20%
3.01%
0.00%
1.00%
2.00%
3.00%
4.00%
5.00%
6.00%
7.00%
8.00%
Real PCE, Y/Y %
Cycle
Peak
© Hedgeye Risk Management LLC.
FROM SOFT LANDING → TO STAG-TEMBER
50
Data Source: Factset, ISM
DEMAND ↓, PRICES ↑ has been the prevailing reality since late July
-0.5
5.8
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
ISM New Orders, M/M ISM Prices Paid, M/M
ISM (Aug)
-26.2
4.9
-30.0
-25.0
-20.0
-15.0
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
Philly Fed: New Orders M/M Philly Fed: Prices Paid M/M
Philly Fed (SEP)
-6
4
-7.0
-5.0
-3.0
-1.0
1.0
3.0
5.0
NFIB: Actual Sales, 3M Chg NFIB: Compensation Plans,
3M Chg
NFIB (AUG)
© Hedgeye Risk Management LLC. 51
Data Source: Factset
Base effects are set to push headline CPI higher through January
Energy Price YoY Base Effects
-50%
-30%
-10%
10%
30%
50%
70%
Crude Oil, Y/Y %
Implied Y/Y
Holding Current
Prices Static
R Squared Explanatory Variables
Crude Oil YoY
Headline CPI 0.3950
Headline CPI' (1MFwd) 0.4586
Headline CPI' (2MFwd) 0.4412
Headline CPI' (3MFwd) 0.3922
Headline CPI' (4MFwd) 0.3294
Headline CPI' (5MFwd) 0.2817
Headline CPI' (6MFwd) 0.2463
Headline CPI' (7MFwd) 0.2121
Headline CPI' (8MFwd) 0.1594
Headline CPI' (9MFwd) 0.1121
Headline CPI' (10MFwd) 0.0779
Independent
Variable
© Hedgeye Risk Management LLC. 52
Data Source: Factset
The #Quad3 Pivot Was Exquisite!
1.05
1.15
1.25
1.35
1.45
1.55
1.65
1.20
1.25
1.30
1.35
1.40
1.45
1.50
XLE/XLU (Long Energy/Short Utilities) URA/EWH (Long Uranium/Short Hong Kong)
July 28th
Pivot to Long
XLE/Quad3
Inflation
Pivot to Long
URA & Select
Commodities

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USA Stagflation

  • 1. © Hedgeye Risk Management LLC. REARVIEW REPORT: JULY = The Peak in the Countertrend Bounce Data Source: Factset Is July setting up as a January redux? Yes, (very) Probably 44 JULY • Peak AI Euphoria • Peak “Barbenheimer” • Peak Summer Concert (Swift, Beyonce, etc) • Sub 7% Mortgage Rates • Trough In Gas Prices • Peak in Equity Prices • 12-month/cycle low in the Savings Rate ….. All of those are either nonrecurring or have since reversed 7.43% 1.37% 2.58% 2.20% 3.01% 0.00% 1.00% 2.00% 3.00% 4.00% 5.00% 6.00% 7.00% 8.00% Real PCE, Y/Y % Cycle Peak
  • 2. © Hedgeye Risk Management LLC. FROM SOFT LANDING → TO STAG-TEMBER 50 Data Source: Factset, ISM DEMAND ↓, PRICES ↑ has been the prevailing reality since late July -0.5 5.8 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 ISM New Orders, M/M ISM Prices Paid, M/M ISM (Aug) -26.2 4.9 -30.0 -25.0 -20.0 -15.0 -10.0 -5.0 0.0 5.0 10.0 Philly Fed: New Orders M/M Philly Fed: Prices Paid M/M Philly Fed (SEP) -6 4 -7.0 -5.0 -3.0 -1.0 1.0 3.0 5.0 NFIB: Actual Sales, 3M Chg NFIB: Compensation Plans, 3M Chg NFIB (AUG)
  • 3. © Hedgeye Risk Management LLC. 51 Data Source: Factset Base effects are set to push headline CPI higher through January Energy Price YoY Base Effects -50% -30% -10% 10% 30% 50% 70% Crude Oil, Y/Y % Implied Y/Y Holding Current Prices Static R Squared Explanatory Variables Crude Oil YoY Headline CPI 0.3950 Headline CPI' (1MFwd) 0.4586 Headline CPI' (2MFwd) 0.4412 Headline CPI' (3MFwd) 0.3922 Headline CPI' (4MFwd) 0.3294 Headline CPI' (5MFwd) 0.2817 Headline CPI' (6MFwd) 0.2463 Headline CPI' (7MFwd) 0.2121 Headline CPI' (8MFwd) 0.1594 Headline CPI' (9MFwd) 0.1121 Headline CPI' (10MFwd) 0.0779 Independent Variable
  • 4. © Hedgeye Risk Management LLC. 52 Data Source: Factset The #Quad3 Pivot Was Exquisite! 1.05 1.15 1.25 1.35 1.45 1.55 1.65 1.20 1.25 1.30 1.35 1.40 1.45 1.50 XLE/XLU (Long Energy/Short Utilities) URA/EWH (Long Uranium/Short Hong Kong) July 28th Pivot to Long XLE/Quad3 Inflation Pivot to Long URA & Select Commodities