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© Hedgeye Risk Management LLC.
1W 1M 2M 3M 6M 9M 12M 24M 36M
STOXX Europe 600 Price Index (Eurozone) -2.8% -0.8% -5.1% -1.2% 0.7% 4.6% 15.3% -3.2% 25.9%
DAX Index (Germany) -3.4% -2.5% -7.1% -3.8% 0.8% 9.0% 25.6% -2.1% 22.3%
CAC 40 Index (France) -3.5% -2.1% -5.2% -1.9% 0.0% 8.0% 23.0% 6.4% 49.6%
IBEX 35 Index (Spain) -3.1% 0.1% -3.6% -0.5% 4.9% 13.0% 25.5% 3.8% 41.0%
FTSE MIB Index (Italy) -3.9% -0.5% -5.1% 2.5% 7.1% 17.7% 33.9% 7.4% 50.2%
FTSE 100 (UK) -1.6% 3.7% -1.1% 1.9% 1.8% 1.8% 8.9% 7.7% 30.2%
SHCOMP (China) 0.0% 1.4% -3.4% -2.6% -4.4% 0.4% 0.4% -13.3% -3.5%
129
Data Source: Factset
Equity Performance
Europe Rolling Over
© Hedgeye Risk Management LLC.
131
Data Source: ECB
ECB Rates have risen +400 bps in the last 12 months
ECB Rates - Tightening
0.8
0.9
1
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.7
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
EUR/USD
Rates
The ECB Raises Rates Into A #Quad4 Slowdown
ECB Interest Rates Euro / US Dollar (RHS)
© Hedgeye Risk Management LLC.
50
70
90
110
130
150
170
Sep-19
Oct-19
Nov-19
Dec-19
Jan-20
Feb-20
Mar-20
Apr-20
May-20
Jun-20
Jul-20
Aug-20
Sep-20
Oct-20
Nov-20
Dec-20
Jan-21
Feb-21
Mar-21
Apr-21
May-21
Jun-21
Jul-21
Aug-21
Sep-21
Oct-21
Nov-21
Dec-21
Jan-22
Feb-22
Mar-22
Apr-22
May-22
Jun-22
Jul-22
Aug-22
Sep-22
Oct-22
Nov-22
Dec-22
Jan-23
Feb-23
Mar-23
Apr-23
May-23
Jun-23
Jul-23
Aug-23
Sep-23
Indexed to June 2019
NSE Nifty 50 Index
(India)
Korea Stock
Exchange KOSPI
Index
MSCI AC Asia Pacific
Index
Jakarta Stock
Exchange
Composite Index
(Indonesia)
Nikkei 225 (Japan)
Shanghai Stock
Exchange
Composite Index
(China)
16
Data Source: Factset
Equity Performance
India & Japan Outperforming YTD in the APAC Region
© Hedgeye Risk Management LLC.
1W 1M 2M 3M 6M 9M 12M 24M 36M
MSCI AC Asia Pacific Index -3.1% -0.2% -6.5% -2.9% -1.2% 1.4% 11.2% -21.4% -6.3%
Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI Index -3.8% -2.2% -5.0% -4.6% 2.0% 6.3% 10.9% -21.2% 8.1%
NSE Nifty 50 Index (India) -2.3% 2.1% -0.6% 5.2% 16.0% 9.2% 15.6% 10.1% 78.0%
Jakarta Stock Exchange Composite Index (Indonesia) -0.8% 0.4% -0.4% 3.9% 2.4% 1.3% -2.9% 12.7% 40.0%
Nikkei 225 (Japan) -2.8% 2.2% -1.1% -1.2% 18.0% 22.4% 22.3% 6.8% 39.3%
Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index (China) -0.7% 1.2% -3.7% -1.5% -5.0% 1.2% 1.7% -14.1% -3.6%
161
Data Source: Factset
Equity Performance
India & Japan Outperforming YTD in the APAC Region

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Short European Recession vs. Long Japan/India

  • 1. © Hedgeye Risk Management LLC. 1W 1M 2M 3M 6M 9M 12M 24M 36M STOXX Europe 600 Price Index (Eurozone) -2.8% -0.8% -5.1% -1.2% 0.7% 4.6% 15.3% -3.2% 25.9% DAX Index (Germany) -3.4% -2.5% -7.1% -3.8% 0.8% 9.0% 25.6% -2.1% 22.3% CAC 40 Index (France) -3.5% -2.1% -5.2% -1.9% 0.0% 8.0% 23.0% 6.4% 49.6% IBEX 35 Index (Spain) -3.1% 0.1% -3.6% -0.5% 4.9% 13.0% 25.5% 3.8% 41.0% FTSE MIB Index (Italy) -3.9% -0.5% -5.1% 2.5% 7.1% 17.7% 33.9% 7.4% 50.2% FTSE 100 (UK) -1.6% 3.7% -1.1% 1.9% 1.8% 1.8% 8.9% 7.7% 30.2% SHCOMP (China) 0.0% 1.4% -3.4% -2.6% -4.4% 0.4% 0.4% -13.3% -3.5% 129 Data Source: Factset Equity Performance Europe Rolling Over
  • 2. © Hedgeye Risk Management LLC. 131 Data Source: ECB ECB Rates have risen +400 bps in the last 12 months ECB Rates - Tightening 0.8 0.9 1 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 EUR/USD Rates The ECB Raises Rates Into A #Quad4 Slowdown ECB Interest Rates Euro / US Dollar (RHS)
  • 3. © Hedgeye Risk Management LLC. 50 70 90 110 130 150 170 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21 May-21 Jun-21 Jul-21 Aug-21 Sep-21 Oct-21 Nov-21 Dec-21 Jan-22 Feb-22 Mar-22 Apr-22 May-22 Jun-22 Jul-22 Aug-22 Sep-22 Oct-22 Nov-22 Dec-22 Jan-23 Feb-23 Mar-23 Apr-23 May-23 Jun-23 Jul-23 Aug-23 Sep-23 Indexed to June 2019 NSE Nifty 50 Index (India) Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI Index MSCI AC Asia Pacific Index Jakarta Stock Exchange Composite Index (Indonesia) Nikkei 225 (Japan) Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index (China) 16 Data Source: Factset Equity Performance India & Japan Outperforming YTD in the APAC Region
  • 4. © Hedgeye Risk Management LLC. 1W 1M 2M 3M 6M 9M 12M 24M 36M MSCI AC Asia Pacific Index -3.1% -0.2% -6.5% -2.9% -1.2% 1.4% 11.2% -21.4% -6.3% Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI Index -3.8% -2.2% -5.0% -4.6% 2.0% 6.3% 10.9% -21.2% 8.1% NSE Nifty 50 Index (India) -2.3% 2.1% -0.6% 5.2% 16.0% 9.2% 15.6% 10.1% 78.0% Jakarta Stock Exchange Composite Index (Indonesia) -0.8% 0.4% -0.4% 3.9% 2.4% 1.3% -2.9% 12.7% 40.0% Nikkei 225 (Japan) -2.8% 2.2% -1.1% -1.2% 18.0% 22.4% 22.3% 6.8% 39.3% Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index (China) -0.7% 1.2% -3.7% -1.5% -5.0% 1.2% 1.7% -14.1% -3.6% 161 Data Source: Factset Equity Performance India & Japan Outperforming YTD in the APAC Region