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VERGE 22: What if? Skilling Up on Scenario Analysis for Climate Risk Disclosures

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VERGE 22: What if? Skilling Up on Scenario Analysis for Climate Risk Disclosures
What if? Skilling Up on Scenario Analysis
for Climate Risk Disclosures
Anjali Marok
Head of Global
Responsibility
Corteva
Josh
Fettes
Senior Consultant
PwC
Shally
Venugopal
Director
Vivid Economics
Amy
Senter
Director
WBCSD
From CSR to Sustainability and ESG
Moving from voluntary reporting and "project" requirements to tackling mainstream
sustainability issues and moving towards focused ESG outcomes
Sustainability - Mainstream issues ESG - Focused outcomes
Source: Sustainability is going mainstream, WBCSD (LHS), Examples of ESG criteria used by sustainable
investors, USSIF (RHS)
Sustainability is moving from ad-hoc
voluntary to mandatory disclosures
Financial regulators, including the SEC, embed
climate in corporate reporting frameworks, in a
more harmonized way
Government agencies are directly involved
in the market, sending stronger signals to
the business sector
TCFD Reference Scenarios for Food,
Agriculture and Forest Products
What gaps are we addressing?
Purpose of the Climate Scenario Tool:
• Provide climate transition scenarios that are relevant and specific
to Food, Agriculture and Forest Products companies
• Allow users to visualize climate scenario data and download full
datasets for use in climate scenario analysis
Understand the range of potential climate transition risks and
opportunities relevant to companies, e.g., dietary shifts, carbon
prices, land use restrictions, innovation, etc.
Members of a Corporate Forum guided
development of the scenarios

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VERGE 22: What if? Skilling Up on Scenario Analysis for Climate Risk Disclosures

  • 2. What if? Skilling Up on Scenario Analysis for Climate Risk Disclosures Anjali Marok Head of Global Responsibility Corteva Josh Fettes Senior Consultant PwC Shally Venugopal Director Vivid Economics Amy Senter Director WBCSD
  • 3. From CSR to Sustainability and ESG Moving from voluntary reporting and "project" requirements to tackling mainstream sustainability issues and moving towards focused ESG outcomes Sustainability - Mainstream issues ESG - Focused outcomes Source: Sustainability is going mainstream, WBCSD (LHS), Examples of ESG criteria used by sustainable investors, USSIF (RHS)
  • 4. Sustainability is moving from ad-hoc voluntary to mandatory disclosures Financial regulators, including the SEC, embed climate in corporate reporting frameworks, in a more harmonized way Government agencies are directly involved in the market, sending stronger signals to the business sector
  • 5. TCFD Reference Scenarios for Food, Agriculture and Forest Products What gaps are we addressing? Purpose of the Climate Scenario Tool: • Provide climate transition scenarios that are relevant and specific to Food, Agriculture and Forest Products companies • Allow users to visualize climate scenario data and download full datasets for use in climate scenario analysis Understand the range of potential climate transition risks and opportunities relevant to companies, e.g., dietary shifts, carbon prices, land use restrictions, innovation, etc.
  • 6. Members of a Corporate Forum guided development of the scenarios
  • 7. Advisors from leading scientific institutions and NGOs
  • 10. We developed five scenarios for Food, Agriculture and Forest Products High Medium Low Scenario Scenario description >3°C Historic Trends Scenario >3°C Historic Trends represents a scenario in which climate action remains stable at current levels and the world fails to meet climate targets, causing a substantial increase in temperature and physical risk, but low levels of transition risk (lack of action). <2°C Coordinated Policy Scenario <2°C Coordinated Policy Scenario is a scenario where timely policy and regulation work to curb emissions in an orderly fashion. <2°C Forecast Policy Scenario (IPR) Under <2°C Forecast Policy Scenario (IPR), climate action is disorderly and delayed to 2025-2030.The sudden implementation of GHG prices and area protection regulation result in higher transition risks. 1.5°C Societal Transformation Scenario 1.5°C Societal Transformation Scenario represents strong, coordinated and prompt global policy action, as well as market responses (e.g. diet shifts and lower food waste) that result in widespread carbon pricing and land protection to enable decarbonisation and limited physical impacts of climate change. 1.5°C Innovation Scenario Note: Temperature targets are indicative as we do not model sectors outside land use Under 1.5°C Innovation Scenario, large demands from the energy system for bioenergy (with CCS) coupled with greater-than-historic yield growth in agriculture and government support for R&D enables early decarbonisation and limited physical impacts of climate change. Temperature increase
  • 11. Anjali Marok Head of Global Responsibility Corteva Panel discussion: Applying Scenario Analysis Josh Fettes Senior Consultant PwC Shally Venugopal Director Vivid Economics Amy Senter Director WBCSD MODERATOR
  • 12. Closing questions 1. Do you have a better understanding of scenario analysis and how the scenarios described in this session could help your organization? 2. Based on what you learned in this session, could you see your organization using scenarios at some point in the future?
  • 13. Launch Webinar Join us for the launch webinar to gain access and learn more about the Climate Scenario Tool November 29, 11am – 12pm ET Visit the link to register: For more information about the Climate Scenario Tool, contact whisnant@wbcsd.org
  • 15. Scenario outputs cover 22 commodities and 18 regions Animal Products Forestry Crops Rice Temperate Cereals Tropical Cereals Cotton Seed Groundnuts Oilpalms Other Oil Crops including Rapeseed Maize Soybean Sunflower Sugar beet Sugar cane Tropical Roots Fruits Vegetables Nuts Potatoes Pulses Eggs Dairy Monogastric Meat Ruminant Meat Poultry Meat Timber (directionally informing pulpwood)
  • 16. Scenarios offer 15 outputs covering market sizing, land use, and environment Environment  Prices (% change relative to 2020)  Total Production and Share of Global Production within a specific region (Mt DM/yr)  Yield growth within a specific region (Mt DM/ha)  Market size (% change relative to 2020)  Net Forest Loss (Mha)  CO2 (Mt CO2e)  CH4 (Mt CO2e)  N2O (Mt CO2e)  Forest Carbon Stocks (Mt CO2e) Land use change by:  Forest, in Million hectares (Mha)  Cropland (Mha)  Pastures and Rangeland (Mha)  Urban Area (Mha)  Other Land (Mha) 1. We focus on regions with approximately 5% share of global production because estimates for very small markets are less reliable in the model Land Use Market Sizing & Yield Growth1 Available for the 18 Regions, 22 Commodities Available for the 18 Regions Only
  • 17. The scenario development process involved six steps, including expert input Example 2. Synthesis Analyzed feedback and addressed key comments Expanded crop coverage, but excluded fertilizer and water consumption 1. Initial design feedback Gathered feedback from Corporate Forum and Technical Advisory Group Noted 200+ comments from companies and experts 3. Scenario refinement Refined the scenarios where feasible and prioritized future work Changed bioenergy production in 2050 for 1.5°C scenarios to align with IPCC AR6 5. Smoothing Smoothed unreasonable spikes in future values Harmonized historical and modelled data to avoid inflection in 2020 4. Sense-checking Checked results against existing sources to ensure values are aligned to the real world Compared model projections for soybean production against FAO data 6. Syndication Tested key model outputs with stakeholders Tested outputs with the Technical Advisory Group Scenario Design Scenario Modeling and QA Action
  • 18. Example 1: comparing soybean production in US and Brazil Scenarios with less meat demand and more 2nd generation biofuels result in lower soybean production Soybean production in selected markets 60 0 2020 50 40 20 40 80 30 45 2050 25 10 30 70 35 20 80 25 2020 40 0 30 2050 40 60 100 35 45 10 30 50 90 70 Brazil USA >3⁰C Historic Trends 2⁰C Coordinated Policy 1.5⁰C Societal Transformation 2⁰C Forecast Policy (IPR) 1.5⁰C Innovation Mt DM per year Demand remains similar to today due to soybeans’ versatile use as feed, food and biofuel Demand remains similar to today due to an increase in soy production for biofuels and alt. proteins coupled with a decrease in soy production for animal feed Production falls in Brazil due to a shift towards on 2nd generation bioenergy production and a slight decline in animal feed demand, but remains constant in the US as an increase in biofuel production and alt. proteins balances the decrease in animal feed production Production decreases due to a high decline in animal feed demand and a shift towards 2nd generation bioenergy production 1.5⁰C Innovation 1.5⁰C Societal Transformation >3⁰C Historic Trends <2°C Coordinated Policy <2⁰C Forecast Policy (IPR) Scenarios Scenario-specific values and rationale GHG Prices Input efficiency Diet shifts Protected areas1 Food waste reductions Bioenergy pathway Yield- enhancing tech
  • 19. Example 2: palm oil in Southeast Asia Output per area must increase to ensure a stable supply while reducing the impact of agriculture on the environment 1.5⁰C Innovation 1.5⁰C Societal Transformation >3⁰C Historic Trends <2°C Coordinated Policy <2⁰C Forecast Policy (IPR) Scenarios Scenario-specific values and rationale GHG Prices Input efficiency Diet shifts Protected areas1 Food waste reductions Bioenergy pathway Yield- enhancing tech Demand for vegetable oils for food and fuel production keeps growing with population Food waste reduction decreases palm oil demand. High carbon prices lower production incentives for palm oil around tropical rainforests. Food waste reduction reduces overall food demand. A shift in demand away from livestock products increases demand for plant-based products. Demand from plant-based products keeps palm oil demand high, until it is eventually offset by lower food waste. Ambitious area protection impose additional production constraints. 2050 2020 30 25 350 35 0 40 45 100 200 300 400 500 50 150 250 450 550 Oil palm in Southeast Asia Production (Mt DM per year)
  • 20. Example 3: livestock demand is impacted by diet shifts and GHG pricing Change in livestock demand (2020 = 100) 90 30 2020 25 2050 35 40 80 110 45 100 120 High ambition diet shift Medium ambition diet shift No diet shift -2% Demand change 2020-2050 +18% Market share of alternative protein remains constant at current levels. R&D and policy incentives, such as carbon pricing, lead to taste and cost parity for alternative protein before 2050, thereby increasing consumption -12% Policy incentives and behavioral shifts increase consumption above the levels seen in the Innovation scenario. Rationale Scenario <2⁰C Forecast Policy (IPR) <2°C Coordinated Policy 1.5⁰C Innovation >3⁰C Historic Trends 1.5⁰C Societal Transformation 2050 40 45 25 2020 35 30 0 50 100 150 <2°C Forecast Policy Scenario (IPR) - high-income economies <2°C Forecast Policy Scenario (IPR) - emerging and developing economies 1.5⁰C Innovation 1.5⁰C Societal Transformation >3⁰C Historic Trends <2°C Coordinated Policy <2⁰C Forecast Policy (IPR) Value in 2050 Rationale Scenarios $115 <$3 $75 (pricing begins today) $65 (emerging/developing) $110 (high-income) A GHG price is implemented today and rises to $115/ ton CO2e by 2050, which is the amount needed to limit climate change to under 2⁰C of warming Global GHG price remains the same as today (forestry sector excluded) A global GHG price is implemented today and rises to the amount necessary to limit climate change to 2⁰C of warming by 2050 A GHG price is implemented in 2025 and rises to 1.50C levels in developed countries
  • 21. What are the use cases of the tool? Engagement & Education Reporting & disclosure Strategic adaptation & resilience Starting point for financial impact Public & policy engagement Scenario analysis enables us to explore possible futures, understand goalposts, and assess risks and opportunities. The foundational use case for the tool enables users to engage and educate key stakeholders with varying degrees of background knowledge on the importance and value of undertaking scenario analysis.
  • 22. Anjali Marok Head of Global Responsibility Corteva Hearing from a business user: Corteva