Avoiding extinction Summer School Prague June 2015

Avoiding extinction Summer School Prague June 2015
Avoiding Extinction The Kyoto Protocol Carbon Market - reflections by its author - Graciela Chichilnisky Columbia University & Global Thermostat Summer School - Prague June 2015
Human Dominated World Human Beings are today the largest geological force in the planet We are changing the planet’s atmosphere, its body of waters, and the complex web of species that makes life on earth Climate Change
Global Risks • Climate Change • Biodiversity Extinction • Clean Water scarcity • Life in the Seas going extinct Avoiding Extinction
URGENCY Why are we being called to respond to The Climate Question
Catastrophic Risks • Global sea level raise threatens the survival of 43 island nations • Polar Caps melt - accelerating warming trend • Record breaking tornadoes, floods, droughts and devastating fires • 30 million climate migration in 2011 • National Security at Risk US Pentagon 2009 Oceans - the origin of life – going extinct
Are Humans Next? • Need Action Now • Waited too long • Industrial economies 20% of world population cause most of world’s C02 emissions Energy from fossil fuels is 45% of global emissions Clean Energy is the Only Solution 2014: US Supreme Court reduces emissions from power plants by 30%
The Anthropocene The change we are producing is caused by economic forces – but will be read in rock formations for thousands of years A new geological era - the ‘Anthropocene’ – follows the Holocene – it started in 1945 The Bretton Woods Institutions after WWII led to Globalization of Western Economics World Bank IMF
A Brief History of Western Economics How an individualistic frontier society Grows Interconnections & the Global Commons
So far Western economics • Lacks connections between people • Lacks connections between economy and environment • Lacks connections across generations Sustainable Development requires building connections WHY?
Because humans dominate the planet • For the first time in recorded history • Following an era of rapid globalization Humans dominate Planet Earth • We are connecting and changing the planet’s atmosphere, its bodies of water, and the complex web of species that makes life on Earth
This means natural resource limits • As we reach natural resource and environmental limits The survival of humankind is at stake • Need connections with the ecology, between people and with the future of our species Can Western Economics adjust? Can Markets become Sustainable?
Sustainable Economics How to do it
Changes needed • Change Economics – Sustainable • Change GDP - environmental markets that provide prices - value the global commons. • Change International Law - UNFCCC KP process We CAN DO IT
Changes Articulated by the United Nations Kyoto Protocol
The Missing Signal • If we destroy all trees & make toilet paper our economy improves – why? • Because Toilet Paper has Market Value & Trees do not. We lack Market Prices New Market prices = New Values New costs and New benefits The Carbon Market Provides the Missing Signal • 1997: UN Kyoto Protocol Placed Limits on industrial emissions • 2005: KP Carbon Market became International Law – now in 4 continents
December 2011: Kyoto Protocol extended 3 years in Durban UN COP 17 • Existing KP limits valid until 2015 • New limits pledged for 2020 • UN COP 19 Warsaw 2013 confirms the North South nature of the earth’s climate crisis
Who Should Abate? • The rich nations of the North? 20% of the global population consume most natural resources and caused the majority of the global emissions • The poor nations of the South? 80% of the global population extract most of the world resources and export to rich nations could cause most emissions in the future.
The Carbon Market • What is it? • What it is not
Emission Limits are the basis of Carbon Market How does it Work CHANGES THE ENTIRE GLOBAL ECONOMY $25-60/TON EMITTED CARBON PRICES ARE THE Missing Signal Carbon Makes Clean Energy profitable Dirty Energy expensive and Undesirable Dirty pays clean – ZERO overall costs
The Carbon Market • EU ETS trades $300 Bn/year • Reduced 37% EU emissions since 2005 • Its CDM transferred over $100 Bn for clean energy projects in poor nations
Carbon Market Links to Global Economy Everything is made with energy Economic growth = Energy Use Link to Energy Carbon Market provides Missing Signal New Market Prices = New Values
FOCUS of Carbon Market • Capping Emissions • We can’t get there without emissions reductions Markets for trading a Global Public Good: Using the planet’s Atmosphere Creating Equity with Efficiency
Where are We? What comes Next? GREEN CAPITALISM
Economy, the Earth and our Species • Need to develop connections with the earth’s resources, between people and with the future of our species Basic needs • The Basic Needs of 80% of Humankind who live in developing nations • Undermined by resource intensive economics: over-extraction of raw materials from the poorest nations in Africa and Latin America • Resources exported and over-consumed by 20% of world population in the industrial world
Women and Survival • Women are the only Link to the Future • War on Women: US Congress Law Violence Against Women • Threatens the Survival of the Human Species • Women key to the New Economy • Green Capitalism • Survival of the Human Species
What to do? • Change International Law • Change Economics We just have to do it • For the survival of our Species
Change International Law Basic Needs • In 1974 I created the Bariloche Model of the World Economy • Based on my new concept of Basic Needs • Was the basis of Sustainable Development voted by 150 nations at the 1992 UN Earth Summit in Rio Brazil • Adopted by the G – 20 in 2009 Sustainable Development
Change International Law The Carbon Market • The Carbon Market I designed and wrote into the UN Kyoto Protocol in 1997- international law since 2005 • Productive clean CDM transfers to developing nations $50 Bn since 2005 • EU ETS Trades $300 Bn/year, decreased 37% EU emissions since became law in 2005 • Makes profitable the use of clean energy for the production of all goods and services • Changes the energy foundation of the Global Economy • China ratified the Kyoto Protocol and since 2005 leads the World in Solar and Wind markets • US did not and we are left behind in clean technology
The Green Power Fund 2009 became international law in Durban SA • I proposed it in 2009 Copenhagen COP15 • Was accepted and officially endorsed by Hillary Clinton US Sec of State two days later at COP 15 • It is a $200 Bn per year Fund to build carbon negative power plants in Africa, LA and Small Island States - economic growth that cleans the atmosphere • The technology exists, and the funding exists in the EU ETS trading system - $250Bn/year
Need political support to make my Green Power Fund a reality • It is already international law since Durban COP 17 2011 • Must be linked to UN Kyoto Protocol to use the $250 Bn/year to fund negative power plants in LA Africa and AOSIS Lima 2014 Paris 2015 Key: promote new technology & new economics create growth while cleaning the atmosphere
Changing Economics is Key HOW? • Provide Missing Connections • Between people, with the environment • Between the Present & the Future Sustainable Development
The Present and the Future • Cost Benefit Analysis and Optimal Growth theory exist that do not discount the Future A Formal Theory of Sustainable Development has been developed that provides Equal treatment for future generations Connects the present and the future I created the formal Theory of Sustainable Development in 1996 Sustainable Development (Chichilnisky 1996, 2000, 2006, 2009, 2010)
Formal Theory of Sustainable Development Created in Chichilnisky 1996* Axioms for Sustainable Development A mathematical formulation • 1. No Dictatorship of the Present • 2. No Dictatorship of the Future • 3. Continuity and Linearity * Chichilnisky “What is Sustainable Development” Social Choice and Welfare, 1996
New types of Markets = New GDP • Market economics can be made consistent with sustainable goals • But markets themselves must change • Individualistic markets must evolve into new types of markets that I postulated - markets for public goods – which incorporate connections between people and value Valuing the Global Commons • They are slowly emerging due to new scarcities: carbon market I created within the Kyoto Protocol, international law since 2005 trading $200Bn/year; SO2 markets in CBOT, new markets for water and for biodiversity (Chichilnisky (1992, 1996, 2000, 2002, 2009, 2010, 2011) Global markets that value privately produced public goods the Global Commons
The Carbon Market Changes the measurement of GDP • Carbon Market puts a (new) economic value to a clean atmosphere that changes GDP • With the carbon market, in two identical nations the one that produces clean energy has a much higher GDP
New Markets change Capitalism • Markets trading privately produced public goods are new • They combine equity with efficiency Connecting People • They require limits on resource use Connecting Economics with Ecological Systems
Green Capitalism in the 21st Century • The basis exists: international law and economics • Theoretically and in practice • New markets for the global commons, new growth theory, new cost benefit analysis and new GDP measures, new international law • Need to implement it through carbon market and Green Power Plants through UN COP
The Global Commons New Economics From maximizing profits to economic progress that ensures survival of our species
Technology Urgently Needed • To Reduce Carbon from the Atmosphere • In a Profitable Way The Word needs Energy CLEAN ENERGY FOR DEVELOPING NATIONS
Global Thermostat Pilot Plant, SRI International - Menlo Park California February 2011
What is a Carbon Negative Solution Global Thermostat Company Confidential Page 41 Carbon Neutral is not enough • Neutralizing emissions does not prevent further increases in atmospheric CO2 • Even the most aggressive efficiency improvements and renewables adoption are unlikely to keep CO2 concentration at the generally agreed 450ppm to avoid catastrophic climate risk Negative Carbon is the solution1 • Air capture enables direct and rapid reduction of CO2 concentration • GT allows for the capture of even more CO2 than we are loading into the atmosphere or that the earth’s systems can absorb – Negative Carbon GT’s technology directly reduces carbon concentration in the air, making carbon negative possible 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 CO2PartsperMillion(PPM) Reducing CO2 Concentrations in the Atmosphere Business as Usual Constant Growth Wedges Approach / Stabilization Global Thermostat Hazardous Level 450 ppm 1 United Nations Headquarters, New York, November 12, 2009. Presentation by G. Chichilnisky on"The Rising Tide at Copenhagen: A Win-Win Solution for Industrialized and Developing Nations"
Closing the Carbon Cycle • GT Technology Captures Carbon from Air • Inexpensive: Uses Low Process Heat • Cogenerates Power Production withCarbon Capture • The More Power is Produced – the More Carbon is reduced • Makes Coal Plants Carbon Negative • Makes Solar Power Plants even more Carbon Negative
GT’s Air Capture Technology Three-Step Process Produces Concentrated CO 2 Stream Step 1 Air Input Transport and Injection Compression Other Applications Key to GT’s technology is cogeneration using low temperature process heat to capture CO2 Subsequent steps are shared by all CO2 capture methods though pipelining costs can be reduced by co-locating where CO2 is stored or used Step 2 CO2 Capture Step 3 CO2 Regeneration
Absorbing CO2 Pipes to oil well or algae UP
Releasing CO2 Pipes to oil well or algae ponds DOWN
Applications & Markets for Captured CO2 Global Thermostat Company Confidential Page 46 Storage Enhanced Oil Recovery* Algae-Based Biofuels* Hydrogen- Based Fuels Products cement, fertilizer, plastics, greenhouses *EOR and Algae-based biofuels represent most significant opportunities for commercial applications of CO2 captured using GT’s technology
GT Pilot Plant at SRI - October 1, 2010 Global Thermostat Company Confidential Page 47
2nd GT Carburetor Demo Plant – Commissioned January, 2013 – Uses heat, and captures CO2, from SRI’s power plant 5 Global Thermostat 48Confidential, May 2013
Strategic Partners
Global Thermostat & Algae Biofuels Global Thermostat Company Confidential Page 50 Desalination CO2 Waste water Algae Production Dewatering Fuel Production Fuels, Electricity & Biochar Treated Wastewater Drinking Water • Produces carbon negative transportation fuels (gasoline diesel) • Treats municipal wastewater and produces drinking water • Generates green electricity and biochar fertilizers GT is developing fully-integrated biorefinery Provides critical municipal services while producing energy As Green As It Gets Solar Energy
Closing the Carbon Cycle Carbon Negative Power Plants – reduce 45% of the global CO2 emissions caused by power plants Green Power Fund provides PPA to build Carbon Negative Power Plants Channel EU ETS $250Bn/year funding to poor nations through Carbon Market CDM Carbon negative fuels – the more you drive and fly the cleaner is the atmosphere Economic Growth that cleans the atmosphere
Creating the Future Green Capitalism The carbon market Environmental Markets for Biodiversity and Water Implement Sustainable Development Existing Funding from Carbon Market can build carbon negative power plants and fuels globally

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