Under the lens-audio_slides-10-17-11-sub-frantic_four_weeks

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  • I fear there may be no really plausible solution to Europe’s crisis. Frankly, the structural damage has already gone too far. If you look at each component of the Grand Plan, every one creates a secondary chain of consequences that may ultimately prove self-defeating.Angela Merkel and Nicolas Sarkozy have bowed to pressure from Washington and the International Monetary Fund for bank recapitalizations, by compulsion if necessary. Lenders must raise core Tier I capital ratios to 9pc or 10pc. THIS IS GOING TO HAVE MAJOR UNINTENTED CONSEQUENCES – It likely will mean 1) a stream of assets coming on to the markets, 2) coupled with constrained lending, as some institutions are forced to try to shrink their way to compliance. European banks look to Middle East for asset buyersEurope's grand plan risks slow death by a thousand cutsJeremy Warner (Telegraph)There seemed to be scarcely a person in the room (Association for Financial Markets in Europe (AFME) annual dinner in London) who thought the grand plan to recapitalise the European banking system would do the trick. Indeed, many took the same view as Josef Ackermann, chief executive of Deutsche Bank, that it's likely to be outright counter-productive. The overwhelming message was: We don't need this new capital. And if regulators really are going to force us to mark sovereign debt to market and backstop capital to 9pc, then we'll be doing it by shrinking the balance sheet, not by raising new equity at today's penalty rates. Thanks very much, but no thanks.
  • “France is behind the curve in terms of structural reforms, and has done little in the way of austerity." "The increasing costs from the bankswill be painful"If the EFSF isn't used to recapitalize banks, the French government may have to foot part of the bill. "Limited prospects of the EFSF playing a big role to help banks could thus be seen as a negative for France“France’s banking liabilities are 409%of GDP (ECB data), compared to 338pc for Spain, 331pc for Germany, 250pc for Italy, 213pc for GreeceSPREADSThe extra yield demanded by investors to buy French bonds instead of German bunds Friday rose to its widest levels on record on concerns that the country will come under pressure if it ends up shoring up its banking system. The 10-year French/German yield spread widened seven basis points to 92 basis points, the highest since the inception of the euro. The yield on the benchmark 10-year French bond rose 16 basis points to 3.11%. A European Union source told Dow Jones Newswires Friday that France had agreed not to tap the EFSF for its banks. Instead, the idea of having the EFSF insure a portion of some euro-zone countries' sovereign bonds is said to be gaining favor. This means France "will have to rely on itself [as opposed to German EFSF money] to support its large banks in case something goes wrong," [MarchelAlexandrovich, European Financial Economist at Jefferies International Ltd in London, said in a note] SELLINGBut people are selling everything except Germany at the moment." "The move is a product of the market asking how much trouble different countries' banks are in," said one trader. "The widening versus Germany is large, and might not be justified if you think German banks also have problems.
  • It will be an ice-cold douche for the world. European banks have $3.4 trillion of cross-border loans to emerging markets (BIS data), 75% of the total. They account for 46% in Asia, 63% in Latin America, and 90% in Eastern Europe. Either these banks will cut funding to Eastern Europe, or they will curtail loans at home. Most likely they will do both. Mr Jen said a lot of nasty "feedback loops" will blight the whole European region for a long timeAUSTRIAN BANKS (Remember the Erst Bank Bombshell 2 weeeks ago)Austria as it struggles with a wave of fresh woes in Hungary, Ukraine, and the Balkans. This sets off its own treacherous dynamic. Erste Group Reveals Stunner: Reports Billions In Previously Undisclosed Underwater Sovereign CDS - Austrian mega bank Erste, which issued an ad hoc and very unexpected press release, in which it warned that losses in its Hungarian and Romanian books would lead to a 14% hit, or €1.1 billion, to tangible book value, something that in itself is not a surprise to anyone (except the stress test). After all, since early 2010, most have known that due to Swiss Franc-based mortgage exposure, Hungary is next to follow in the PIIGS footsteps, and its collapse has so far been delayed due to lower overall public and private sector leverage. What was, however not only a surprise, but a shock, was that Erste disclosed some major losses on its €5.2 billion CDS portfolio, consisting of "EUR 2.4 billion related to financial institution exposures, and EUR 2.8 billion related sovereign exposures"
  • Under the lens-audio_slides-10-17-11-sub-frantic_four_weeks

    1. 1. Global Macro Tipping PointsOctober 17th, 2011<br />A FRANTIC FOUR WEEKS<br />Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLens<br />The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.<br />
    2. 2. Global Macro Tipping PointsOctober 17th, 2011<br />A FRANTIC FOUR WEEKS<br />Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLens<br />The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.<br />
    3. 3. Global Macro Tipping PointsOctober 17th, 2011<br />A FRANTIC FOUR WEEKS<br />Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLens<br />The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.<br />
    4. 4. Global Macro Tipping PointsOctober 17th, 2011<br />A FRANTIC FOUR WEEKS<br />Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLens<br />The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.<br />
    5. 5. Global Macro Tipping PointsOctober 17th, 2011<br />A FRANTIC FOUR WEEKS<br />Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLens<br />The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.<br />
    6. 6. Global Macro Tipping PointsOctober 17th, 2011<br />A FRANTIC FOUR WEEKS<br />Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLens<br />The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.<br />
    7. 7. Global Macro Tipping PointsOctober 17th, 2011<br />A FRANTIC FOUR WEEKS<br />Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLens<br />The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.<br />
    8. 8. Global Macro Tipping PointsOctober 17th, 2011<br />A FRANTIC FOUR WEEKS<br />Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLens<br />The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.<br />
    9. 9. Global Macro Tipping PointsOctober 17th, 2011<br />A FRANTIC FOUR WEEKS<br />Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLens<br />The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.<br />
    10. 10. Global Macro Tipping PointsOctober 17th, 2011<br />A FRANTIC FOUR WEEKS<br />Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLens<br />The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.<br />
    11. 11. Global Macro Tipping PointsOctober 17th, 2011<br />A FRANTIC FOUR WEEKS<br />Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLens<br />The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.<br />
    12. 12. Global Macro Tipping PointsOctober 17th, 2011<br />A FRANTIC FOUR WEEKS<br />Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLens<br />The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.<br />
    13. 13. Global Macro Tipping PointsOctober 17th, 2011<br />A FRANTIC FOUR WEEKS<br />Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLens<br />The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.<br />
    14. 14. Global Macro Tipping PointsOctober 17th, 2011<br />A FRANTIC FOUR WEEKS<br /> ANYTHING OVER 5 SHOULD BE CONSIDERED SERIOUSLY ELEVATED<br />Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLens<br />The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.<br />
    15. 15. Global Macro Tipping PointsOctober 17th, 2011<br />A FRANTIC FOUR WEEKS<br />Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLens<br />The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.<br />
    16. 16. Global Macro Tipping PointsOctober 17th, 2011<br />A FRANTIC FOUR WEEKS<br />Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLens<br />The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.<br />
    17. 17. Global Macro Tipping PointsOctober 17th, 2011<br />A FRANTIC FOUR WEEKS<br />Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLens<br />The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.<br />
    18. 18. Global Macro Tipping PointsOctober 17th, 2011<br />A FRANTIC FOUR WEEKS<br />Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLens<br />The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.<br />
    19. 19. Global Macro Tipping PointsOctober 17th, 2011<br />A FRANTIC FOUR WEEKS<br />Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLens<br />The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.<br />
    20. 20. Global Macro Tipping PointsOctober 17th, 2011<br />A FRANTIC FOUR WEEKS<br />Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLens<br />The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.<br />
    21. 21. Global Macro Tipping PointsOctober 17th, 2011<br />A FRANTIC FOUR WEEKS<br />Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLens<br />The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.<br />
    22. 22. Global Macro Tipping PointsOctober 17th, 2011<br />A FRANTIC FOUR WEEKS<br />Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLens<br />The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.<br />
    23. 23. Global Macro Tipping PointsOctober 17th, 2011<br />A FRANTIC FOUR WEEKS<br />Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLens<br />The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.<br />
    24. 24. This chart accompanies the podcast recordedOctober 14th, 2011<br />WEEKLY WRAP<br />Listen to the original podcast for this slide at eitherwww.GordonTLong.com/GlobalInsightsorwww.TraderView.com/GlobalInsights<br />The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.<br />
    25. 25. Global Macro Tipping PointsOctober 17th, 2011<br />A FRANTIC FOUR WEEKS<br />Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLens<br />The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.<br />
    26. 26. Global Macro Tipping PointsOctober 17th, 2011<br />A FRANTIC FOUR WEEKS<br />Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLens<br />The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.<br />
    27. 27. Global Macro Tipping PointsOctober 17th, 2011<br />A FRANTIC FOUR WEEKS<br />Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLens<br />The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.<br />
    28. 28. Global Macro Tipping PointsOctober 17th, 2011<br />A FRANTIC FOUR WEEKS<br />Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLens<br />The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.<br />
    29. 29. Global Macro Tipping PointsOctober 17th, 2011<br />A FRANTIC FOUR WEEKS<br />Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLens<br />The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.<br />
    30. 30. This chart accompanies the podcast recordedOctober 17th, 2011<br />CHART TITLE HERE<br />Listen to the original podcast for this slide at eitherwww.GordonTLong.com/GlobalInsightsorwww.TraderView.com/GlobalInsights<br />The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.<br />
    31. 31. Global Macro Tipping PointsOctober 17th, 2011<br />A FRANTIC FOUR WEEKS<br />Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLens<br />The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.<br />
    32. 32. Global Macro Tipping PointsOctober 17th, 2011<br />A FRANTIC FOUR WEEKS<br />Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLens<br />The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.<br />
    33. 33. DISCLOSURE STATEMENT AND TERMS OF USE<br />THE CONTENT OF THIS SLIDE PRESENTATION AND ITS ACCOMPANYING RECORDED AUDIO DISCUSSION ARE INTENDED FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY.This slide presentation and its accompanying recorded audio discussion are not a solicitation to trade or invest, and any analysis is the opinion of the author and is not to be used or relied upon as investment advice. Trading and investing can involve substantial risk of loss. Past performance is no guarantee of future returns/results. Commentary is only the opinions of the authors and should not to be used for investment decisions. You must carefully examine the risks associated with investing of any sort and whether investment programs are suitable for you. You should never invest or consider investments without a complete set of disclosure documents, and should consider the risks prior to investing. This slide presentation and its accompanying recorded audio discussion are not in any way a substitution for disclosure. Suitability of investing decisions rests solely with the investor. Your acknowledgement of this Disclosure and Term of Use Statement is a condition of access to it. Furthermore, any investments you may make are your sole responsibility. THERE IS RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING AND INVESTING OF ANY KIND. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.<br />Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLens<br />

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