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Chama Gloriosa Ratings - Champions League - Fase de Grupos

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- Sem surpresa, o modelo aponta, por larga margem, o Real Madrid e o Barcelona como as melhores equipas da fase de grupos da competição. Os gigantes espanhóis serão mesmo os principais candidatos à vitória final, seguindo-se Chelsea e Bayern numa segunda linha.

- O Benfica aparece num excelente 8º lugar no ranking global, fruto de uma fase de grupos bem conseguida, essencialmente a nível defensivo. Segundo o modelo, os encarnados são mesmo a equipa com melhor comportamento quando é preciso defender a sua baliza seguidos de Ajax, Marseille, Real Madrid, Trabzonspor e Chelsea. No ataque, domínio absoluto de Real Madrid e Barcelona com a surpresa a ser a equipa suíça do FC Basel. A nível ofensivo o Benfica não conseguiu mais que um desempenho um pouco abaixo da média.

- O Dinamo Zagreb foi de longe a pior equipa da fase de grupos com uma defesa absolutamente desalinhada do nível médio da competição. As grandes desilusões terão sido o Dortmund (em termos defensivos) e o Villarreal (globalmente) de quem se esperava bastante mais.

- Relativamente à fase de knock-out, o modelo indica Barcelona, Lyon, Benfica, AC Milan, Real Madrid, Chelsea, Bayern e Marseille como favoritos a seguir em frente, esperando-se que os resultados da primeira mão comecem a definir esta tendência.

- Previsão para o primeiro jogo: FC Zenit 0-0 Benfica, com a simulação do resultado da eliminatória a indicar o Benfica como vencedor 56% das vezes (ligeiramente favorito). É provável que sem Criscito e, principalmente, Danny e Malafeev as hipóteses reais do Benfica sejam um pouco superiores.

- As estimativas das probabilidades de vitória e as previsões apresentadas são falíveis e não devem ser usadas para apostar de forma cega nos vencedores ou nos totais dos jogos. Não me responsabilizo por eventuais perdas, nem espero uma percentagem de eventuais ganhos.

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Chama Gloriosa Ratings - Champions League - Fase de Grupos

  1. 1. Chama Gloriosa Ratings – Fase de grupos DEFESA / ATAQUE
  2. 2. Chama Gloriosa Ratings – Fase de grupos DEFESA / ATAQUE
  3. 3. Oitavos de final – 1ª Mão PREVISÕES E PROBABILIDADES <ul><li>Metodologia e Objectivos </li></ul><ul><li>Pretende-se prever o número total de golos marcados por cada equipa através do cálculo de um rating defensivo e ofensivo para cada uma delas, usando a função “Solver” do Excel ® para minimizar o erro quadrático de cada previsão e obter o conjunto de ratings que melhor se adequa às observações (resultados reais). </li></ul><ul><li>Esses ratings são também usados para ordenar as equipas segundo a sua performance defensiva, ofensiva e total (rating ofensivo – rating defensivo) permitindo encerrar ou avivar discussões sobre quem é a melhor equipa, o melhor ataque ou a melhor defesa da competição. </li></ul><ul><li>As previsões acerca do número de golos marcados por cada conjunto são usadas para obter as probabilidades de se vir a verificar cada um dos três resultados possíveis através da distribuição de Poisson. </li></ul>
  4. 4. Oitavos de final – Eliminatória PREVISÕES E PROBABILIDADES

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