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The Public Opinion Landscape: Election 2016

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GPG analysis of publicly-released polls with an eye toward the upcoming primary elections.

Published in: News & Politics
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The Public Opinion Landscape: Election 2016

  1. 1. Election 2016 – A Brief Overview and Analysis March 15, 2016
  2. 2. PAGE 2 S O FA R , T U R NO UT I N T H I S Y E A R’ S P R I M ARI ES R I VA LS 2 0 0 8 R E C O RD Source: Pew Research Center 26% 21% 25% 22% 17% 18% 15% 30% 15% 29% 16% 17% 17% 13% 8% 8% 10% 20% 6% 12% 12% 7% 10% 9% 9% 11% 7% 11% 10% 17% 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 Votes cast in Democratic and Republican primaries as a share of eligible voters in primary states Total Democratic Republican
  3. 3. PAGE 3 O N L I NE C O N VER SATI ONS S P I KE S C A U SE D B Y T H E G O P D E B ATES A N D C A N C EL LED T R U MP R A L LY Source: Brandwatch 0 50000 100000 150000 200000 250000 300000 350000 400000 450000 6-Mar 7-Mar 8-Mar 9-Mar 10-Mar 11-Mar 12-Mar 13-Mar Donald Trump Ted Cruz Marco Rubio John Kasich 66% 23% 8% 3% Donald Trump Ted Cruz Marco Rubio John Kasich Share of VoiceDaily Digital Conversation Volume n= 3,806,849 GOP Debates GOP Debates Trump Rally Cancelled in Chicago Trump Blames Sanders for Cancelled Rally
  4. 4. PAGE 4 D E M O CRAT IC D E B ATES A N D C A N C EL LED T R UM P R A L LY D R O VE O N L I NE C O N VER SATI ONS Source: Brandwatch 60000 80000 100000 120000 140000 160000 180000 6-Mar 7-Mar 8-Mar 9-Mar 10-Mar 11-Mar 12-Mar 13-Mar Bernie Sanders Hillary Clinton Democratic Debates 40% 60% Hillary Clinton Bernie Sanders Share of VoiceDaily Digital Conversation Volume n= 1,765,739 Democratic Debates Trump Blames Sanders for Cancelled Rally
  5. 5. 2 0 1 6 – E L E C T IO N P R E V I E W – T H E P R E S I D E N CY : R E P U B L I CA N N O M I N A T I ON
  6. 6. PAGE 6 R E P U BL ICA N PAT H T O T H E N O M I NATI ON Phase 1 – Winnowing the Field Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Nevada Phase 2 – Super Tuesday (SEC Primary) 653 Delegates (26% of all delegates) Phase 3 – March 15, Winner-take-all Begins Phase 4 – March 16 – June 7 Final Primary Voting Phase 5 – RNC Convention, July 18 – 21, 2016 Key Dates Date Number of Delegates States March 15 367 FL, IL, MO,Northern MarianaIslands,NC,OH March 22 107 American Samoa,AZ,UT April 26 172 CT,DE, MD,PA, RI June 7 331 CA,MT, NJ,NM,SD
  7. 7. PAGE 7 W I N N ER S O F E A C H S TATE P R I MARY /CA UCUS S O FA R DonaldTrump (15) Ted Cruz (8) Marco Rubio (1) Also won DC & Puerto Rico
  8. 8. PAGE 8 T H E N U M B ER O F V O T E S I S L E S S T H A N T H E N U M B ER O F D E L E GAT ES Top-performing candidates get more delegates than their vote totals might suggest. Trump won about 35 percent of all the votes cast through March 8 but earned 43 percent of the delegates available in those contests. 43.3% 34.4% 33.9% 28.6% 16.9% 21.2% 4.1% 6.8% 1.7% 9.0% Portion of all delegates Portion of all votes Trump Cruz Rubio Kasich Others Source: Washington Post
  9. 9. PAGE 9 T R U M P I S W I N N I NG T H E D E L E GATE R A C E S O FA R , B U T C R U Z I S N ’ T FA R B E H I N D Current Delegate Count 2,472 Delegates to the Convention 168 RNC Members/Automatic Delegates (6.8%) 1,237 Needed to Win 469 370 163 63 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 DonaldTrump Ted Cruz Marco Rubio John Kasich Source: Associated Press More than one in 10 delegates will go to the convention in Cleveland either unpledged or pledged to a defunct campaign.
  10. 10. PAGE 10 T H E R AT I ON ALE B E H IN D # N E VE RTRUMP M O V E MEN T Source: Washington Post-ABC News Poll, March 3-6, 2016 In hypothetical two-way matchups, Cruz and Rubio both top Trump. Among non-Trump supporters, 7 in 10 say they’d prefer Cruz, and as many say they’d pick Rubio in head-to-head contests. Just 51 percent say they’d be satisfied with Trump as the Republican nominee. Moreover, 60 percent of Republican and Republican-leaning women say they’d be dissatisfied with Trump as the nominee.
  11. 11. PAGE 11 T R U M P H A S L E D I N N AT I ONA L P O L L I NG S I N C E S E P T EMBE R Trump has been extremely resilient despite pundits constantly predicting his demise. Source: HuffPost Pollster Trend, June 2015-March, 2016 2% 2% 3% 3% 3% 2% 3% 7% 12%6% 5% 6% 6% 8% 13% 18% 17% 24% 11% 8% 6% 9% 10% 15% 10% 17% 13% 5% 15% 31% 28% 28% 34% 39% 43% 42% June July Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb March 2016 Republican Primary Preference Among RepublicanandRepublicanleaning voters Kasich Cruz Rubio Trump
  12. 12. PAGE 12 W H AT ’S AT S TA K E F O R R E P UB LIC ANS O N M A R C H 1 5 T H Source: The Green Papers and Real Clear Politics Polling averages March 15th Primary Details Voter Eligibility Number of Delegates (Allocation) Florida Closed 99 (Winner-Take-All) NorthCarolina Open 72 (Proportional) Illinois Modified** 69 (Winner-Take-Most*) Ohio Modified** 66 (Winner-Take-All) Missouri Open 52 (Proportional*) 5% 13% 10% 23% 36% 18% 11% 10% 20% 26% 29% 19% 33% 35% 41% 42% Ohio Illinois North Carolina Florida Polling Averages for March 15th Primary States Trump Cruz Kasich Rubio *Illinois and Missouri could functionally become winner- take-all too. Both states award their delegates on a congressional-district level. So if Trump (or someone else) sweeps their congressional districts, that candidate will win all the delegates Limited to no polling has been done in Missouri **unaffiliated voters may choose which party primary to vote in, while voters registered with a party may only vote in that party’s primary.
  13. 13. PAGE 13 H O W F L O R I DA A N D O H I O C O U LD M A K E O R B R E A K D O N AL D T R U M P T H I S W E E K Source: Frontloading HQ courtesy of The Washington Post
  14. 14. PAGE 14 S TAT E O F T H E G O P R A C E F O R T H E P R E S IDE NCY • Donald Trump remains in a strong position, at least as long as the field remains divided. • Kasich and Cruz gain, at Rubio’s expense: Marco Rubio cleared 18 percent of the vote in every primary state on Super Tuesday. He hasn’t reached that number since. Both John Kasich and Ted Cruz have benefited. • The Challenge for Anyone but Trump: The results since Super Tuesday suggest that Trump holds around 38 percent of the vote nationally, a number that could allow him to amass a majority of delegates in a three-way race. But they also suggest that he really does have a ceiling: His support hasn’t increased, even as other candidates have left the race or faltered. • Kasich might win Ohio, but even if he does, Trump could amass a majority of delegates without it. Trump could conceivably benefit if Kasich stays in the race, by preventing Cruz from consolidating the “Anyone but Trump” vote.
  15. 15. 2 0 1 6 – E L E C T IO N P R E V I E W – T H E P R E S I D E N CY : D E M O C R A T I C N O M I N A T I O N
  16. 16. PAGE 16 D E M O CRAT IC PAT H T O T H E N O M I NAT ION Phase 1 – Winnowing the Field Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, South Carolina Phase 2 – Early March 1,389 Delegates (29% of all delegates) Phase 3 – Late March 1,113 Delegates (23% of all delegates) Phase 4 – April – June Final Primary Voting Phase 5 – DNC Convention, July 25 – 28, 2016 Key Dates Date Number of Delegates States March 15 691 FL, IL, MO,NC,OH March 26 142 AK, HI, WA April 19 247 NY April 26 384 CT,DE, MD,NE,RI June 7 695 CA,MT, ND,NJ,NM, SD
  17. 17. PAGE 17 W I N N ER S O F E A C H S TATE P R I MARY /CA UCUS S O FA R Bernie Sanders (9) Hillary Clinton (12)
  18. 18. PAGE 18 A LT H OUG H S A N DE RS H A S W O N A L M O ST A S M A N Y S TATE S, C L I N TON H A S S T R ON G L E A D W I T H D E L GATES Source NY Times 768 554 467 26 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 Clinton Sanders Delegates Superdelegates Total:1,235 Total:580 4,763 Delegates to the Convention 4,051 Pledged delegates 712 Superdelegates 2,382 Needed to Win (50% of total) Current Delegate Count
  19. 19. PAGE 19 A LT H OUG H S A N DE RS H A S N A R R OWED T H E L E A D I N T H E P O L L S, P R E D IC TIO N M A R KE TS S T I L L FAV OR C L I N TON S I G N IF ICA NTLY Source: HuffPost Pollster Trend, June 2015-March, 2016 12% 17% 18% 24% 25% 30% 31% 34% 39% 40% 60% 58% 54% 47% 45% 55% 56% 55% 51% 53% June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb March 2016 Democratic Primary Preference Among Democrats and Democratic leaningvoters Sanders Clinton Source: PredictWise 90% 10% Clinton Sanders Chancesofbecomingthe Democratic presidential nominee
  20. 20. PAGE 20 W H AT ’S AT S TA K E F O R D E M OCR ATS O N M A R C H 1 5 T H Source : New York Times, The Green Papers, and Real Clear Politics polling averages Voter Eligibility Delegate Counts (Allocation) Florida Closed 246 (Proportional) Illinois Open 182 (Proportional) Ohio Modified* 159 (Proportional) NorthCarolina Modified* 121 (Proportional) Missouri Open 84 (Proportional) March 15th Primary Details 33% 43% 46% 32% 57% 50% 48% 61% North Carolina Ohio Illinois Florida Polling  Averages  for  March  15th Primary  States Clinton Sanders Limited to no polling has been done in Missouri *unaffiliated voters may choose which party primary to vote in, while voters registered with a party may only vote in that party’s primary.
  21. 21. PAGE 21 S TAT E O F D E M O CR ATIC R A C E F O R T H E P R E S IDE NCY • The headlines have changed for Sanders, but the prediction markets haven’t. Clinton is still the likelier Democratic nominee. • With Sanders victory in Michigan, are the polls off in other Midwestern states that are holding open primaries - specifically Illinois and Ohio? • If Clinton wins 2 states out of the big 3 (Illinois, Florida, and Ohio), she’ll take the wind out of Sanders’ sails. But if Sanders can win two or even three states today, the campaign will remain alive and fighting. • A series of Western states vote between March 22 and April 9, as does Wisconsin.
  22. 22. P O S T - M A R C H 1 5 t h
  23. 23. PAGE 23 I M P O RTAN T P O S T M A R CH 1 5 TH D AT E S ( D E B AT ES/ PRI MARI ES/ CAUC USES ) Upcoming Debate Schedule Date Republican Democrat March 21st ✔ Primaries/Caucuses in late March/early April Date Republican Democrat March 22nd AZ, UT AZ, ID, UT March 26th AK, HI, WA April 5th WI WI April 9th CO WY
  24. 24. 1025 F Street NW, 9th Floor Washington, DC 20004 121 East 24th Street, 10th Floor New York, NY 10010 202.337.0808 | GPG.COM GPG Research The Glover Park Group is a leading strategic communications and government affairs firm. GPG offers an integrated and complementary suite of services to plan, build and execute all manner of communications tactics, campaigns and programs. Our in-house research team is a data and insight-driven outfit. We employ cutting-edge research methodologies, from digital analytics to quantitative and qualitative opinion research, to help our clients understand where the conversation begins and, more importantly, how we can influence it. For more information about this presentation or to find out more about GPG’s research capabilities contact: Jason Boxt (jboxt@gpg.com)

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