Expertseminar LABOUR MIGRATION IN THE BALTIC SEA COUNTRIES: TRENDS AND PROSPECTS 25 April 2013 Constitutional Hall, Parliament of the Republic of Lithuania, Gedimino av. 53, Vilnius

1. Migration, Austerity and New
Challenges to Labour Markets in
the Baltic/Nordic Region
Professor Charles Woolfson
LABOUR MIGRATION IN THE BALTIC SEA COUNTRIES:
TRENDS AND PROSPECTS
25 April 2013
Constitutional Hall, Parliament of the Republic of Lithuania,
Gedimino av. 53, Vilnius

2. Acknowledgments
• Swedish Council for Working Life and Social
Research (FAS) Project Number: 2011-0338,
Svensk modell och baltisk rörlighet:
harmonisering eller social dumpning? En studie
av arbetsmigration mellan Baltikum och Sverige.
• The Swedish Institute, Visby Programme grant
00749/2010 East-West labour migration,
industrial relations and labour standards in a
Swedish-Baltic context.
• Indre Genelyte, REMESO doctoral candidate and
Professor Arunas Juska, University of East
Carolina, prepared key empirical charts.

3. Key Labour Market Indicators

4. Real GDP growth rate compared to previous year (%)
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 (f) 2013 (f)
EU (27 countries) Estonia
Latvia Lithuania

5. Publicsector
Private
sector
Private sector
(low but growing
informalization)
Private sector
(high informalization)
Public
sector
Core EU Countries Peripheral (post-
socialist) countries
Private
sector
Secondarysegment:
laborintensive/low-skill
Primarysegment:high
wage/higheducation/skill
Dual labor markets in Core and Peripheral Countries

6. *Source: LR Finansu Ministerija (2013). ES lėšos Lietuvos biudžete at
http://www.finmin.lt/c/portal/layout?p_l_id=PUB.1.64
10.4
12.1
15.9
17.19
20.46
14.7
13.38
19.91
21.73
1.39 2.003 2.162
3.48
5.1
5.92
7.89
6.92
7.131
11.79%
14.20%
11.97%
16.84%
19.95%
28.71%
37.09%
25.79%
24.71%
0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
20.00%
25.00%
30.00%
35.00%
40.00%
0
5
10
15
20
25
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
%ofBudgetAccountedbyEUTransfers
BillionsofLitas
Lithuanian Government's Budget
(billion Litas, 2004-2012)
Revenue EU funds % budget accounted by EU funds

7. Cartoon by Rytis Daukantas from Jakeliunas, Stasys. 2010. Lietuvos Krizes Anatomija.
Vilnius: UAB Kitos Knygos, p. 91

8. Characteristics of dual labour market
• Primary sector
State and local
administration/high skill/high
education
-Some wage reductions
-Secure employment
-External EU programme
funding support
-High social capital/patronage/
networking/
-Relative employment security
-Reduced labour rights
• Secondary sector
Low wage/low
skill/manufacturing/service
-Large wage reductions
-Mass unemployment
-Increased temporary
contracts, easier dismissal,
longer hours
-Informalization and job
insecurity
-Reduced labour rights

9. Size of Informal Economy % of GDP 1997-2012

10. Real wages (%, YoY)
Source: SEB Baltic Household Outlook April 2013

11. Primary
public
sector
Secondary Private
Bifurcation: Hollowing out of
the middle
Two-thirds earn less than average wage (2,202LT or €637 per month)
Primary
private
(“Oligarchs”)
195 Thousand (18.5%) of workforce earn
minimum wage or less (850 LT or <€250)

12. Key Social and Demographic Indicators

13. 20% Lithuanians live on <€240 per month,
6% live on approximately €90 per month

14. 20.5 20.0 19.10 20.0 20.6 20.2 20.0
26.1 26.6
25.50
27.2
29.4
31.8
33.4
746
918
1188
1512
1746
1472
1452
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
LItas
Percent
Poverty, At Risk of Poverty, and Level of
Poverty in Lithuania (2005-2011)*
Poverty level At Risk of Poverty Level of poverty for 4 persons' houshold
* Source: Statistics Lithuania

15. Life expectancy at birth, men and women
2002 and 2011

16. Demographic projections for Baltic States
2010-2060
Source: Eurosat

17. Population aged 65 years or over (%
of the total population)
Source: Eurostat

18. Migration as “exit”

19. Emigration from Baltic states plus Poland to
Norway, Denmark and Sweden
1813
3573
4810
8069
9257
8737
7881
7135
7141
1116
2389
4439
9279
17305 18333
15172
21011
23418
3708
5098
8360
13725 15686
19146
9666
8741 9024
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Sweden
Norway
Denmark

20. 11,032
15,16515,571
12,602 13,853
17,015
21,970
83,157
53,863
41,100
4,728 5,553 6,789
7,745 8,609 9,297 6,487
5,213
15,685
19,843
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Emigrationper1,000population
Emigrants/Immigrantsinthousands
Emigration, Emigration Rate, and Immigration
Lithuania 2003-2012
Emigrants Immgrants

21. Emigration by age group from Lithuania 2012
12.6%
7.1%
20.5% 20%
12.3%
8.8%
6.5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
0-14 15–19 20–24 25–29 30–34 35–39 40–44

22. Prognosis:
Austerity is the new “normal”

23. Social distance indicators
Lithuania and Sweden compared
(Source: 4th European Social Survey)
Most people can be
trusted or you can't be
too careful; Most
people try to take
advantage of you, or
try to be fair; Most of
the time people
helpful or mostly
looking out for
themselves

24. Things are going in the right direction or in the
wrong direction in your country? (% positive)
Source: Estonia HDR 2011

25. “Most elected officials care what people
like me think”
Percentage Agree
1991 2009 Change
% %
Poland 24 37 +13
Russia 18 26 +8
Ukraine 22 23 +1
Hungary 32 22 -10
Slovakia 21 22 +1
Czech Rep 34 18 -16
Lithuania 30 15 -15
Bulgaria 21 14 -7
(Source: PEW Attitude Survey 2009)

26. Then and Now
“Do you want to be free?” A loud affirmative response
of “YES!” roars over the massed throng attending a pro-
independence rally. Landsbergis continues: “But it will
be hard. Will you persevere?” Again, “YES!” booms
through the crowd. Vytautas Landsbergis, 1990.
“We are living through our second historical trial since
breaking with the Soviet Union. <…> Either we will
persevere or the future (of our nation) will be one of
oblivion. We need more friendliness and brotherliness,
less egoism, less exploitation and more humanity and
sociability in Lithuanian society. Otherwise we will
either destroy ourselves through drink or we will
disappear and be scattered throughout the world.”
Vytautas Landsbergis, 2013.