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Mark Svoboda - Too Hot, Too Wet, Too Dry: Building Resilient Agroecosystems

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Mark Svoboda - Too Hot, Too Wet, Too Dry: Building Resilient Agroecosystems

  1. 1. The Global Harvest Initiative andRobert B. Daugherty Water for Food Institute Present: Too Hot, Too Wet, Too Dry: Building Resilient Agroecosystems March 20, 2013 #water4food
  2. 2. The Drought of 2012-2013 Mark Svoboda, Climatologist Monitoring Program Area Leader National Drought Mitigation Center School of Natural Resources University of Nebraska-LincolnUNL-WFI -GHI World Water Day Panel Briefing, Washington DC, March 20, 2013
  3. 3. Standard Rainguage
  4. 4. Standard Rainguage –New Nebraska Rainguage
  5. 5. Missouri River Mainstem System Annual Runoff above Sioux City, IAMillion Acre-Feet 2011 Historic Drought PeriodsU.D. 10%U.Q. 25%Median 50% 2012L.Q. 75%L.D. 90% Courtesy: U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Omaha, NE
  6. 6. 2012 Drought RecapWarmest year on record for the Lower 48states, beating 1998 by 1˚F Every state in the contiguous U.S. had above-average annual temperature 19 states had a record warm year 26 states Top 10 warmest Warmest March and July on record for the U.S.15th driest year on record for the U.S. Driest since 1988 NE and WY driest years on record USDM peak of 65% U.S. in drought during September2012 was the 2nd most extreme year onrecord with 11 disasters costing $1B ormore, second only to 1998
  7. 7. 2012 Drought ImpactsEconomic loss estimates $35 billion, Aon Benfield $50 billion, Morgan Stanley $77 billion, Purdue University economistCrop indemnities: $12.4 billion as of January 25th Estimated to increase to $20 billion 2011 the previous record with $10.8 billionState indemnities ($ billion): Illinois (1.8), Iowa(1.4), Kansas (1.2), Nebraska (1.2), Texas (1.2)Crop indemnities ($ billion): corn (7.8), soybeans(1.6)
  8. 8. –15
  9. 9. Looking ahead in 2013….
  10. 10. Seasonal Forecasts
  11. 11. Final Drought 2012-2013 Thoughts2012-13 Fall and Winter none-too-kind for most thusfar! U.S. (contiguous) has seen a 14% decrease in areal drought coverage since its peak (65%) last September, but we still have 51% of the U.S. in drought heading into Spring as compared to 30% last year this time Most improvement seen in the Southeast and eastern Corn Belt Great Lakes very low Snow pack in the Rockies is a big concern (MO Basin) So, recent storms have helped, but…..Spring rains will be critical for soil moisturerecharge (grain/forage prospects tied to this)No buffer/carryover coming into 2013, unlike2012…will be living rain event to event muchearlier…heat waves likely again if below-normal soilmoisture recharge takes place
  12. 12. Mark Svobodamsvoboda2@unl.edu402-472-8238National Drought Mitigation Centerhttp://drought.unl.edu Photo: Cimarron County, Oklahoma Gary McManus, Oklahoma Climatological Survey, late June, 2008
  13. 13. The Global Harvest Initiative andRobert B. Daugherty Water for Food Institute Present: Too Hot, Too Wet, Too Dry: Building Resilient Agroecosystems March 20, 2013 #water4food

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