2012 Global Agricultural Productivity Report - Release Event Slideshow

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THE 2012 GLOBAL AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY REPORT®

The Global Harvest Initiative (GHI) is a private sector policy voice for agricultural productivity growth throughout the value chain to sustainably meet the demands of a growing world.

GHI releases an annual Global Agricultural Productivity Report® (GAP Report®) to serve as a benchmark to analyze agricultural productivity growth.

The 2012 GAP Report® focuses on the most recent global agricultural productivity growth rate and compares it to the rate required to meet estimated demand growth. The report also analyzes global and regional productivity, as each region faces unique opportunities and challenges.

In 2010, GHI’s inaugural GAP Report® calculated that global agricultural total factor productivity (TFP) must grow by an average rate of at least 1.75 percent annually to double agricultural output by 2050. Recent findings indicate that global TFP is rising at an average annual rate of 1.84 percent.

But regional differences exist, and achieving necessary food production by 2050 requires improving the productivity of farmers in every major region, and across all scales of agriculture, from the smallholder to the commercial exporter.

Meeting future demand requires improving practices in growing and handling crops and livestock, and improving transportation, processing, and food production through infrastructure and capital investment.

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  • Further trade liberalization can expand market access, improve efficiency and increase investment
  • 2012 Global Agricultural Productivity Report - Release Event Slideshow

    1. 1. Total Factor Productivity
    2. 2. Why We Are Here• We believe the right policies can improve global food and nutrition security• Increasing total factor productivity (TFP) is the sustainable way to meet the demands of 2050• The annual GAP Report® presents required rate of TFP to meet demand vs. actual rate and policies that foster productivity growth
    3. 3. Recent Developments in Global Agricultural Productivity Dr. Keith Fuglie Economic Research Service, USDA The views expressed here are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect official policy of ERS or USDA
    4. 4. Future agricultural growth will rely more on raising yield rather than expanding resourcesOutput growth Yield growth Area growth The views expressed here are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect official policy of ERS or USDA
    5. 5. Yield growth itself may come from input intensification or from technological change (total factor productivity) Total Factor Productivity (TFP) growthOutput growth Yield growth Input intensification Area Area growth growth The views expressed here are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect official policy of ERS or USDA
    6. 6. Yield growth itself may come from input intensification or from technological change (total factor productivity) Research & extension Total Factor Rural education Productivity Resource quality (TFP) Infrastructure growth InstitutionsOutput growth Yield growth Input Resource endowments intensification Prices & costs Ag policies Infrastructure Exchange rates Area Area Institutions growth growth The views expressed here are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect official policy of ERS or USDA
    7. 7. Globally, improvement in total factor productivity accounts for a rising share of agriculture growthSource: ERS The views expressed here are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect official policy of ERS or USDA
    8. 8. Though robust overall, agricultural TFP growth is highly uneven among countriesAverage annual TFP growth > 3% 1-3% < 1% Average annual TFP growth between the mid 1990s and 2008/09Source: ERS The views expressed here are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect official policy of ERS or USDA
    9. 9. Sustaining TFP growth into the future willrequire robust investment in research andinnovation The views expressed here are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect official policy of ERS or USDA
    10. 10. 2012 GAP Report® Conclusions Laura Barringer Senior Associate Global Harvest Initiative
    11. 11. A closer look at demand growth and regional strategies to meet demand Projected Increase in Food Demand• Demand growth and 2000 – 2030 resource distribution are not equal• Opportunities everywhere to increase productivity strategies may be different Source: Calculations based on data from Fischer (2009) and Tweeten and Thompson (2008)
    12. 12. East Asia – If TFP Growth is maintained a gap willexist Est. Food Demand and Between 2000 - 2030 Productivity GrowthEstimated Food 3.6 %Demand / yearTFP Growth / year 3.1%• Increase in food demand is primarily driven by the growing middle class• Trade is vital for increasing the availability of food for urban populations Source: Calculations based on data from Fuglie (2012), Fischer (2009), and Tweeten and Thompson (2008)
    13. 13. South and Southeast Asia - If TFP Growth ismaintained a gap will exist Est. Food Demand and Between 2000 - 2030 Productivity GrowthEstimated Food 2.8 %Demand / yearTFP Growth / year 2.5 %• Asia accounts for 70% world’s land under irrigation – likely to become more water stressed• More trade will be necessary to meet future demands Source: Calculations based on data from Fuglie (2012), Fischer (2009), and Tweeten and Thompson (2008)
    14. 14. Middle East and North Africa - If TFP Growth is maintaineda gap will exist Est. Food Demand and Between 2000 - 2030 Productivity GrowthEstimated Food 2.1 %Demand / yearTFP Growth / year 1.9 %• Increasing water scarcity makes technologies to improve water‐use efficiency important• Nearly half of food in region is imported ‐ a combination of productivity, imports and safety net programs will be required to fill this gap Source: Calculations based on data from Fuglie (2012), Fischer (2009), and Tweeten and Thompson (2008)
    15. 15. Sub‐Saharan Africa needs to dramatically improveproductivity to sustainably meet demand Est. Food Demand and Between 2000 - 2030 Productivity GrowthEstimated Food 2.8 %Demand / yearTFP Growth / year 0.5 %• Increase in food demand primarily driven by population growth• Investment in research and adoption of suitable technologies would make a significant impact on productivity and food security Source: Calculations based on data from Fuglie (2012), Fischer (2009), and Tweeten and Thompson (2008)
    16. 16. Latin America and Caribbean region has potential tobe a larger net exporter Est. Food Demand and Between 2000 - 2030 Productivity GrowthEstimated Food 1.8 %Demand / yearTFP Growth / year 2.7 %• Policies that continue to encourage productivity and invest in infrastructure can create an environment conducive for growth Source: Calculations based on data from Fuglie (2012), Fischer (2009), and Tweeten and Thompson (2008)
    17. 17. Effective Policies Can Enable Growth
    18. 18. Investments will determine environment and to whatextent technologies will be available• Increased public and private sector funding is necessary Public Sector• Development assistance can mobilize private sector Private Sector• Significant on farm capital investment is required Farmer
    19. 19. AG R&D spending and extension is the mostimportant predictor of TFP growth• More investment in public R&D is needed to sustain productivity growth• Investments lead to higher profits for farmers and lower prices for consumers
    20. 20. Science‐ and information‐based technologies are necessaryto improve productivity No-till adoption is increasing• Numerous tools available that not only improve productivity, but also reduce environmental footprint• Need a rules-based and predictable regulatory system
    21. 21. Trade liberalization can be a major contributor toeconomic growth• Agriculture trade is expected to grow to $1 trillion by 2020• Further trade liberalization can expand market access, improve efficiency and increase investment
    22. 22. Key strategies for meeting the demand• Productivity needs to continue to increase in every major part of the world• Close the investment gap to provide sufficient infrastructure• Increase R&D spending to generate needed science- and information- based technologies• Remove barriers to global and regional trade
    23. 23. Panel Discussion Dr. Christopher Delgado Strategy and Policy Adviser World Bank Mr. Rajesh Kumar Farmer Salem, India Dr. Keith Fuglie Branch Chief for Resource, Environmental and Science Policy, Resource and Rural Economic Division Economic Research Service, USDA

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