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2012 Global Agricultural Productivity By Region

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Global Agricultural Productivity By Region - East Asia, South and Southeast Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa, Middle East and North Africa, Latin America and Caribbean

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2012 Global Agricultural Productivity By Region

  1. 1. Regional Findings: If TFP growth rate is maintained,East Asia 300 a significant gapRising incomes, not population would need to begrowth, will be the primary driver of 250 met through imports.increasing food demand in East Asia.Food demand is estimated to grow at3.65 percent each year between 2000 74% 200and 2030, outpacing the region’s TFPgrowth of 3.05 percent of thepast decade. 150 of total demand can be met by maintaining the current TFP growth rate.PROJECTED INCREASE IN FOOD DEMAND 2000 - 2030 100 200% 00 05 10 15 20 25 30 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 150% Food Demand Index 100% Agricultural Output View all infographics from the 2012 GAP Report ® and 50% from TFP Growth download the full report at globalharvestinitiative.org/ 0% Projected index.php/2012-gap-report. EAST ASIA SOUTH & Agricultural Output SOUTHEAST from TFP Growth ASIA Source: Calculations based on data from Fuglie (2012), Fischer (2009), and Tweeten and Thompson (2008) INCOME POPULATION Source: Calculations based on data from Fischer (2009) and Tweeten and Thompson (2008) Founded in 2009, the Global Harvest Initiative (GHI) is a private sector voice for productivity growth throughout the agricultural value chain to sustainably meet the demands of a growing world. GHI believes the right policies can improve global food and nutrition security by accelerating agricultural productivity gains while conserving natural resources. http://www.globalharvestinitiative.org/
  2. 2. Regional Findings: If TFP growth rate is maintained,South and Southeast Asia 250 a significant gapRising incomes, not population growth, would need to bewill be the primary driver of increasing 200 met through imports.food demand in South and SoutheastAsia. Food demand is estimated 82%to grow annually by 2.75 percent,outpacing the region’s TFP growth of 1502.48 percent of the past decade. of total demand can be met by maintaining the current TFP growth rate. 100PROJECTED INCREASE IN FOOD DEMAND 00 05 10 15 20 25 30 2000 - 2030 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 200% 150% Food Demand Index 100% Agricultural Output from TFP Growth View all infographics from the 2012 GAP Report ® and 50% download the full report at globalharvestinitiative.org/ Projected index.php/2012-gap-report. 0% Agricultural Output EAST ASIA SOUTH & from TFP Growth SOUTHEAST ASIA Source: Calculations based on data from Fuglie (2012), Fischer (2009), and Tweeten and Thompson (2008) INCOME POPULATION Source: Calculations based on data from Fischer (2009) and Tweeten and Thompson (2008) Founded in 2009, the Global Harvest Initiative (GHI) is a private sector voice for productivity growth throughout the agricultural value chain to sustainably meet the demands of a growing world. GHI believes the right policies can improve global food and nutrition security by accelerating agricultural productivity gains while conserving natural resources. http://www.globalharvestinitiative.org/
  3. 3. Regional Findings: If TFP growth rate is maintained,Middle East and North Africa 200 a significant gapFood demand in the Middle East andNorth Africa (MENA) region is expected would need to beto grow at a rate of 2.14 percent by 2050, met throughoutpacing the region’s TFP growth of 1.9percent of the past decade. 150 imports and safety net programs.Almost half of food in the MENA region isimported and water scarcity is increasing.A growing food gap will need to be met 100 83% 00 05 10 15 20 25 30through productivity increases, imports, 20 20 20 20 20 20 20and government safety net foodassistance programs. Food Demand Index of total demand can be metIncreasing agricultural productivity in by maintaining the current Agricultural Output TFP growth rate.the MENA region will rely on improved from TFP Growthirrigation technologies, such as micro-irrigation. Pioneered by 2012 World Food Projected View all infographics from the 2012 GAP Report ® andPrize Laureate Dr. Daniel Hillel, micro- Agricultural Output download the full report at globalharvestinitiative.org/irrigation is a revolutionary system that from TFP Growth index.php/2012-gap-report.dramatically reduces the amount of waterneeded to nourish crops, maintain crop Source: Calculations based on data from Fuglie (2012), Fischer (2009), and Tweeten and Thompson (2008)health, and increase yields. Founded in 2009, the Global Harvest Initiative (GHI) is a private sector voice for productivity growth throughout the agricultural value chain to sustainably meet the demands of a growing world. GHI believes the right policies can improve global food and nutrition security by accelerating agricultural productivity gains while conserving natural resources. http://www.globalharvestinitiative.org/
  4. 4. Regional Findings: If TFP growth rate is maintained,Sub-Saharan Africa 300 a significant gapSub-Saharan African food demand isprojected to rise by 2.83 percent per would need to be met 200year from 2000 to 2030, primarily through productivitydue to population growth, the most improvements, selectiverapid of any region in the world. With expansion, intensification,TFP growth rates of 0.5 percent onaverage, a significant food demand gap and imports. 100will become much greater unless Sub- 00 05 10 15 20 25 30 Only 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 13%Saharan Africa accelerates productivitygrowth, sustainably expands land, or Food Demand Indexintensifies production. Agricultural Output of total demand would be from TFP Growth met by maintaining thePROJECTED INCREASE IN FOOD DEMAND current TFP growth rate. Projected 2000 - 2030 Agricultural Output 160% from TFP Growth View all infographics from the 2012 GAP Report ® and 120% download the full report at globalharvestinitiative.org/ Source: Calculations based on data 80% from Fuglie (2012), Fischer (2009), index.php/2012-gap-report. and Tweeten and Thompson (2008) 40% 0% SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA INCOME POPULATION Founded in 2009, the Global Harvest Initiative (GHI) is a private sector voice for productivity growth throughout the agricultural Source: Calculations based on data from Fischer (2009) value chain to sustainably meet the demands of a growing world. GHI believes the right policies can improve global food and nutrition and Tweeten and Thompson (2008) security by accelerating agricultural productivity gains while conserving natural resources. http://www.globalharvestinitiative.org/
  5. 5. Regional Findings: If TFP growth rate is maintained,Latin America and Caribbean 250 Food demand will beThe estimated growth in food demandfor the Latin America and Caribbean 200 met and exceeded,(LAC) region is 1.8 percent per year and the region will likelyfrom 2000 to 2030. TFP growth from become a larger exporter.the last decade is 2.74 percent. If thatrate is maintained or accelerated, this 150region may expand exports, increasebiofuels production, or withdraw someland from production for conservationor carbon-credit strategies. 100 00 05 10 15 20 25 30Policies that encourage productivity, 20 20 20 20 20 20 20while sustainably managing water,land, and forest cover, can provide an Food Demand Indexenvironment conducive to future Agricultural Output View all infographics from the 2012 GAP Report ® andfood exports. from TFP Growth download the full report at globalharvestinitiative.org/ ProjectedIn order for the LAC region to realize Agricultural Output index.php/2012-gap-report.its productivity and export trade from TFP Growthpotential, governments must commit to Source: Calculations based on data from Fuglie (2012), Fischer (2009), and Tweeten and Thompson (2008)improvements in infrastructure. Founded in 2009, the Global Harvest Initiative (GHI) is a private sector voice for productivity growth throughout the agricultural value chain to sustainably meet the demands of a growing world. GHI believes the right policies can improve global food and nutrition security by accelerating agricultural productivity gains while conserving natural resources. http://www.globalharvestinitiative.org/
  6. 6. 250 2050 1.751.84 200TFP INDEX 150 Required Rate of TFP Growth 100 Required Current 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042 2043 2044 2045 2046 2047 2048 2049 2050 Actual TFP 125 Rate of TFP Rate of TFP Total Factor Productivity must continue to increase Growth Growth to feed 9 billion by 2050. through 2050 The global level is 100 on target, but we should recognize the 2 0 00 2 0 01 2 0 02 2 0 03 2 0 04 2 0 05 2 0 06 2 0 07 2 0 08 2 0 09 2 0 10 investment and commitment needed to stay on track. Source: Global agricultural TFP growth is from Fuglie, 2012. The required rate of TFP growth to double agricultural supply using existing resources is estimated by GHI. Founded in 2009, the Global Harvest Initiative (GHI) is a private sector voice for productivity growth throughout the agricultural value chain to sustainably meet the demands of a growing world. GHI believes the right policies can improve global food and nutrition security by accelerating agricultural productivity gains while conserving natural resources. http://www.globalharvestinitiative.org/

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