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The Green Lab - [07-B] Hypothesis Testing

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This presentation is about a lecture I gave within the "Green Lab" course of the Computer Science master, Software Engineering and Green IT track of the Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam: http://masters.vu.nl/en/programmes/computer-science-software-engineering-green-it/index.aspx
http://www.procaccianti.me

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The Green Lab - [07-B] Hypothesis Testing

1. 1. Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam Hypothesis: a formal statement about a phenomenon ● Null hypothesis H0 : no real trends or patterns in the experiment setting (aka ~Q) ● Alternative hypothesis Ha : there are real trends or patterns in the experiment setting (aka Q)
2. 2. Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam ● We aim at verifying the null hypothesis (~Q) ○ we test the null hypothesis H0 We can reject the null hypothesis → we can draw conclusions This comes from Popper (1959): any statement in a scientific field is true until anybody can contradict it ● Aiming at verifying Q is WRONG ○ Provides no insight on the conjecture
3. 3. Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam ● ● ●
4. 4. Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam
5. 5. Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam ● ○ "P-value in statistical significance testing" by User:Repapetilto @ Wikipedia & User:Chen-Pan Liao @ Wikipedia - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:P_value.png. Licensed under CC BY-SA 3.0 via Wikimedia Commons
6. 6. Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam ● ●
7. 7. Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam ● ○ ○ α ● ○ ○ β
8. 8. Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam
9. 9. Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam ● ○ β ●
10. 10. Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam
11. 11. Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam ● α ○ α ○ ● β ○ ○ ●
12. 12. Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam ● ● ● ○ ○ ■ α
13. 13. Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam ● ● ○ ● ○ ○
14. 14. Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam α 0.38
15. 15. Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam α ● α ○ ● 0.38 α
16. 16. Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam ● ○ ● ○ ○ ● ○
17. 17. Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam ● ●
18. 18. Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam ● ○ ●
19. 19. Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam ● Analysis and Interpretation: Chapter 10 Experimentation in SE, Wohlin et al. (Blackboard) ● Hypothesis Testing: Chapter 10, Section 3 Experimentation in SE, Wohlin et al. (Blackboard) ● "It's the effect size, stupid" (Coe, R.) ● Plenty of online resourcestutorials
20. 20. Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam ● Coin toss example and other content from Empirical Methods in Software Engineering, Marco Torchiano, Politecnico di Torino - http://softeng.polito.it/EMSE/ ● Effect Size from Basics of Empirical Software Engineering, Massimiliano Di Penta, University of Sannio, Italy
21. 21. Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam g.procaccianti@vu.nl i.malavolta@vu.nl