Robust decisions in uncertain times
WFSF: 21st World Conference
8/4/2013 www.samiconsulting.co.uk 1
“Here be Dragons”
Conn...
Robust decisions in uncertain times
Here be dragons ------
04/08/2013 www.samiconsulting.co.uk 2
©2009 Ringland
Robust decisions in uncertain times
WEF Global Risks 2011
04/08/2013 www.samiconsulting.co.uk 3
1000
100
PerceivedimpactUS...
Robust decisions in uncertain times
04/08/2013 www.samiconsulting.co.uk 4
Energy pressures
400
300
200
100
0
Gigajoules pe...
Robust decisions in uncertain times
The logarithm of the ratio of the current situation to the probable
long term sustaina...
Robust decisions in uncertain times
Effective at renewal ?
Efficiency
04/08/2013 www.samiconsulting.co.uk 6
Asset allocati...
Robust decisions in uncertain times
Role of futurists ?
8/4/2013 www.samiconsulting.co.uk 7
Organisation
knows the answer ...
Robust decisions in uncertain times
Futures Council, TCBE
8/4/2013 www.samiconsulting.co.uk 8
Consultant Line manager
Robust decisions in uncertain times
Line manager, Corporate Strategist Scenarios Future
Engineer manager thinker
Early ind...
Robust decisions in uncertain times
Foxes and hedgehogs
04/08/2013 www.samiconsulting.co.uk 10
Robust decisions in uncertain times
Effective at renewal,
foxes
Efficiency, hedgehogs
Asset allocation
Traditional hierarc...
Robust decisions in uncertain times
Applying to the EC
04/08/2013 www.samiconsulting.co.uk 12
©2009 Ringland
• EFFLA (Euro...
Robust decisions in uncertain times
Necessary elements of the future EU strategic process
Foresight (I) > Insight (II) > S...
Robust decisions in uncertain times
EC DG RTD context
• Strategic process:
– Strategic Intelligence – cast wide
– Stronger...
Robust decisions in uncertain times
Horizon scanning
SS
ANZ
HSN
Meta AJASN
RAHS
Risk Assessment
& Horizon
Scanning
SS
Sigm...
Robust decisions in uncertain times
Sense making steps
• Need for sponsor – what question are we trying
to answer?
– Explo...
Robust decisions in uncertain times
8/4/2013 www.samiconsulting.co.uk 17
How to integrate the process into real life?
Exam...
Robust decisions in uncertain times
Thank you!
www.samiconsulting.co.uk 18
If you would like to get our monthly enewslette...
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“Here be Dragons”, connecting a changing world to strategic decisions through futures thinking

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This presentation to the World Future Studies Federation in Bucharest in June tackles the issue of how futurists can be effective in helping organisations anticipate and prepare for the future. Based on the work published in "Here be Dragons" and using the work of the European Forum on Forward Looking Activities in developing the ability of the European Commission to anticipate the future, it scopes some of the hurdles and suggests ways of tackling them.

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“Here be Dragons”, connecting a changing world to strategic decisions through futures thinking

  1. 1. Robust decisions in uncertain times WFSF: 21st World Conference 8/4/2013 www.samiconsulting.co.uk 1 “Here be Dragons” Connecting a changing world to strategic decisions Gill Ringland CEO & Fellow, SAMI Consulting June 2013
  2. 2. Robust decisions in uncertain times Here be dragons ------ 04/08/2013 www.samiconsulting.co.uk 2 ©2009 Ringland
  3. 3. Robust decisions in uncertain times WEF Global Risks 2011 04/08/2013 www.samiconsulting.co.uk 3 1000 100 PerceivedimpactUSBN$ Perceived likelihood in next 10 years
  4. 4. Robust decisions in uncertain times 04/08/2013 www.samiconsulting.co.uk 4 Energy pressures 400 300 200 100 0 Gigajoules per capita 0 10 20 30 40 GDP per capita USA Europe, Japan, Korea China, India
  5. 5. Robust decisions in uncertain times The logarithm of the ratio of the current situation to the probable long term sustainable limit: these have been breached already 0 Carbon dioxide Species extinction rate Nitrogen cycle Phosphorus cycle Stratospheric ozone depletion Ocean acidification Freshwater use Change in land use Sustainable limit Environmental pressures ©Beyond Crisis, Lustig, Ringland, Sparrow, John Wiley 2010 04/08/2013 www.samiconsulting.co.uk 5
  6. 6. Robust decisions in uncertain times Effective at renewal ? Efficiency 04/08/2013 www.samiconsulting.co.uk 6 Asset allocation Traditional hierarchy ©2009 Lustig, Ringland, Sparrow Ad hoc activities, lobbying etc Present and future operating environment Organisations facing change
  7. 7. Robust decisions in uncertain times Role of futurists ? 8/4/2013 www.samiconsulting.co.uk 7 Organisation knows the answer doesn’t know the answer Individual Knowstheanswerdoesn’tknowtheanswer
  8. 8. Robust decisions in uncertain times Futures Council, TCBE 8/4/2013 www.samiconsulting.co.uk 8 Consultant Line manager
  9. 9. Robust decisions in uncertain times Line manager, Corporate Strategist Scenarios Future Engineer manager thinker Early indicators Portfolio Ideas & systems Alternate “843” trends Decisions, management Planning worlds interconnected Timelines Options Decisions Thinking styles 04/08/2013 9www.samiconsulting.co.uk
  10. 10. Robust decisions in uncertain times Foxes and hedgehogs 04/08/2013 www.samiconsulting.co.uk 10
  11. 11. Robust decisions in uncertain times Effective at renewal, foxes Efficiency, hedgehogs Asset allocation Traditional hierarchy ©2009 Lustig, Ringland, Sparrow Planning and ensuring renewal machinery works Present and future operating environment Organisations and change
  12. 12. Robust decisions in uncertain times Applying to the EC 04/08/2013 www.samiconsulting.co.uk 12 ©2009 Ringland • EFFLA (European Forum on Forward Looking Activities) set up to – aggregate existing forward looking studies and data – and involve public and private stakeholders to improve the evidence base of future (R&I) policies • Advisory Board to DG RTD, set up in September 2011 • Adopted a strategy cycle from TEKES in Finland as the basis for aligning to DG RTD cycle
  13. 13. Robust decisions in uncertain times Necessary elements of the future EU strategic process Foresight (I) > Insight (II) > Strategy (III) > Action (IV)
  14. 14. Robust decisions in uncertain times EC DG RTD context • Strategic process: – Strategic Intelligence – cast wide – Stronger systematic sense-making using SI data – role of experts and individuals – Sense making strong link to Selecting priorities – Political dynamics & Member States important in Selecting Priorities • “Hub” – NODE (close to decision-makers) to give access and be an anchor for effectiveness; – also to act as an INTERFACE to translate issues and engage at the right time – NETWORK to provide a broad range of outside sources, antennas across EU and beyond; increasingly involves semi- automated scanning
  15. 15. Robust decisions in uncertain times Horizon scanning SS ANZ HSN Meta AJASN RAHS Risk Assessment & Horizon Scanning SS Sigma Scan ANZ HSN Aus & NZ Horizon Scanning Network Meta Metafore/ SemaDyson AJASN Aus Joint Agencies scanning Network RAHS iK iKNow iK
  16. 16. Robust decisions in uncertain times Sense making steps • Need for sponsor – what question are we trying to answer? – Exploring different visions – Analysing trends – Analysing drivers – Creating different scenarios – Building the strategy options – Selection of priorities • Links from Strategic Intelligence and to Selecting Priorities 8/4/2013 www.samiconsulting.co.uk 16
  17. 17. Robust decisions in uncertain times 8/4/2013 www.samiconsulting.co.uk 17 How to integrate the process into real life? Example – preparing H2030 Activity 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Process management Phase I Strategic intelligence Phase II Sense-making Phase III Selecting priorities Phase IV Implementation Start Mid-term evaluation of H2020 Involves input from knowledge stakeholders and MS The process is NOT linear but cyclic with constant feedback (Ref. Slide No 3). Involves MS and Commission. Involves European Parliament and Commission. Involves Council. Involves MS and Commission.
  18. 18. Robust decisions in uncertain times Thank you! www.samiconsulting.co.uk 18 If you would like to get our monthly enewsletter eSAMI ---- please ask – esami@samiconsulting.co.uk. For details of our training courses (with the Horizon Scanning Centre of the Foresight Unit) see www.samiconsulting.co.uk. For details of our Blowing the Cobwebs off our Mind events, please ask, cobwebs@samiconsulting.co.uk. Questions and comments??

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