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Energizing Successful Economies

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Energizing Successful Economies

  1. 1. ALEXANDER OCHS SENIOR DIRECTOR OF CLIMATE & ENERGY Energizing Successful Economies: How Renewables Are Outperforming Fossil Fuels Germanwatch International Conference FAST FORWARD Bonn, Germany 16th February 2016
  2. 2. 1 Contents Technology & Markets | Renewables Outpacing Conventionals Costs & Benefits | Renewables Outcompeting Conventionals Policy & Strategy | Successful Energy Economies Conclusions
  3. 3. 2 Technology & Markets ---------------------------- RenewablesOutpacing Conventionals
  4. 4. 3 2013 Global Primary Energy Supply by Source Source: IEA 2015.
  5. 5. 4 2013 World Electricity Production Source: IEA 2015.
  6. 6. 5 Annual Global Growth Rates by Energy Source from 2009 - 2014 ©Worldwatch 2016 . Source: REN-21 2015, EIA 2015, IEA 2015, ERCOT 2014. 50.0% 46.0% 18.0% 3.6% 3.5% 1.7% 1.0% 0.9% 0.6% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Solar PV CSP Wind Geothermal Hydropower Natural Gas Nuclear Oil Coal GrowthRate
  7. 7. 6 Source: IRENA 2014. Global Cumulative Installed Renewable Power Generation Capacity, 2000 – 2013
  8. 8. 7 Renewable EnergyTechnology Capacity: Solar PV Source: REN-21 2015.
  9. 9. 8 Renewable EnergyTechnology Capacity: Wind Source: REN-21 2015.
  10. 10. 9 Source: IRENA 2014. Annual New Renewable Power Generation Capacity Additions, 2001 – 2013
  11. 11. 10 Source: REN-21 2015. Global New Investment in Renewable Power and Fuels, Developed and Developing Countries, 2004 -2014
  12. 12. 11 Source: IRENA 2016. RE Power Growth Share &Total Capacity/Generation Share
  13. 13. 12 Costs & Benefits --------------------- RenewablesOutcompeting Conventionals
  14. 14. 13 Source: IRENA 2016. Today’s Costs of Renewables vs. Conventionals
  15. 15. 14 Rapidly Falling Costs of Wind & Solar Source: IRENA 2014.
  16. 16. 15 Global RE Investment Costs, 2012 - 2030 Source:Greenpeace/GWEC/SPE 2015.
  17. 17. 16 Global LCOE, 2014 and 2025 Source: IRENA 2015.
  18. 18. 17 Germany: LCOE 2013 - 2030 Source: Fraunhofer 2013.
  19. 19. 18 Power Generation Capacity Additions Source: BNEF 2015.
  20. 20. 19 Policy & Strategy ---------------------- Successful Energy Economies
  21. 21. 20 Dominican Republic: LCOE+ Source:Worldwatch 2015. Pollution Climate Change Fuel O&M Capital
  22. 22. 21 ©Worldwatch 2016 based on IRENA 2016.
  23. 23. 22 Germany: Gross Electricity Generation 2015 Source: Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy 2015 .
  24. 24. 23 Patent Registrations for Renewable EnergyTechnology in Germany between 2007-2013 Source:Germany EnergyTransition 2014.
  25. 25. 24 Solar PV Capacity and Additions,Top 10 Countries, 2014 Source: REN21 2015.
  26. 26. 25 Source: NREL 2008. Comparison: Photovoltaic Solar Resources in the United States and Germany
  27. 27. 26 Source: BMU 2009. Renewable Electricity in Germany, 1990 - 2007
  28. 28. 27 California Renewable Energy Generation by ResourcesType Source:California Energy Commission 2015.
  29. 29. 28 Denmark: Share of Renewable Energy Considering Government Initiatives Source:The Danish Government 2011.
  30. 30. 29 Denmark: Development in GDP and in Final Energy Consumption Source: Danish EnergyAgency 2012.
  31. 31. 30 Denmark: Consumption of Fossil Fuels and Renewable Energy Source:The Danish Government 2011.
  32. 32. 31 ©Worldwatch Institute 2016 Source:Grup0 ICE 2016.
  33. 33. 32 Conclusions
  34. 34. 33 503 1,600 600 500 250 50 1 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 World Energy Supply Solar Wind Geothermal Biomass Hydropower Ocean EnergyFlow(exajoulesperyear) Global Potential of Renewable Resources Source: IEA, Johansson et al ().
  35. 35. 34 Renewable Energy Potential Source:Greenpeace,GlobalWind Energy Council, Solar Power Europe 2015.
  36. 36. 35 Countries with Renewable Energy Policies andTargets, Early 2015 Source: REN21 2015.
  37. 37. 36 THANKYOU! Contact: aochs@worldwatch.org Worldwatch Institute: http://www.worldwatch.org/ LEDS EnergyWorking Group: http://en.openei.org/wiki/LEDSGP/sector/energy 36/17

Editor's Notes

  • Notes:
    Includes electricity from energy sources not defined above such as non-renewable wastes, peat, oil shale and chemical heat.
    Includes geothermal, wind, solar, tide.

    Notes from Asha:
    Alternative to slide 4.

    Source: http://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/RENTEXT2015_PARTIIExcerpt.pdf





    Asha:
    Source: Development of Renewables and Waste in the World. International Energy Agency. 2015 http://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/RENTEXT2015_PARTIIExcerpt.pdf
    Changes data completely! Not EIA. Just last 5-20 yrs. Past and present
  • Notes from Asha:
    Note: 2015 publication…. But they have 2013 data for global fig. 2014 data for OECD only.

    Source: http://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/RENTEXT2015_PARTIIExcerpt.pdf
  • Sources: REN21 GSR 2015, EIA (n.d.), IEA 2015, ERCOT 2014
    http://www.ren21.net/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/GSR2015_KeyFindings_lowres.pdf
    http://www.morssglobalfinance.com/are-we-in-an-energy-transition-fossil-fuels-nuclear-and-oh-yes-renewables/ - (data in article from IEA and EIA)
    http://www.ercot.com/content/news/presentations/2015/2014%20State_of_the_Grid_Web_21015.pdf
    http://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/KeyWorld_Statistics_2015.pdf
  • Source: Greenpeace, Global Wind Energy Council, Solar Power Europe. Energy Revolution. A Sustainable World Energy Outlook 2015.
  • IRENA 2014-2015: At A Glance report
    Renewable power generation technologies have achieved remarkable improvements in their competitiveness, and are increasingly competing head-to-head with conventional (FF) technologies
  • Source: http://www.irena.org/rethinking/IRENA_REthinking_fullreport_2014.pdf
  • Source: Greenpeace, Global Wind Energy Council, Solar Power Europe. Energy Revolution. A Sustainable World Energy Outlook 2015.
    Projections for 2012 – 2030, Normalized to 2012 Costs Levels
  • Source: http://www.irena.org/documentdownloads/publications/irena_re_power_costs_2014_report.pdf
  • Source: https://www.ise.fraunhofer.de/en/publications/veroeffentlichungen-pdf-dateien-en/studien-und-konzeptpapiere/study-levelized-cost-of-electricity-renewable-energies.pdf
  • Note from Alex: We need successful examples to follow, climate/energy champions
  • Source: IRENA. Renewable Energy Benefits: Measuring the Economics. 2016.

    Note from Celina:
    - Doubling the share of renewables in the global energy mix by 2030 would increase global GDP by up to 1.1% or USD 1.3 trillion. The report shows that such a transition increases global GDP in 2030 between 0.6% and 1.1%, or between around USD 700 billion and USD 1.3 trillion compared to business as usual. Most of these positive impacts on GDP are driven by the increased investment in renewable energy deployment, which triggers ripple effects throughout the economy. If the doubling of the renewable share is achieved through a higher rate of electrification of final energy uses, the increase in global GDP is even higher, amounting to some 1.1%, or USD 1.3 trillion globally.
    Improvements in human well-being and welfare would go far beyond gains in GDP. The benefits of renewables reach well beyond the traditional and limited measurements of economic performance. Doubling the share of renewables by 2030 has a positive impact on global welfare, which increases by 2.7 % compared to a 0.6% GDP improvement. If achieved through higher electrification of heat and transport, global welfare would further rise by 3.7%.
    - Doubling the share of renewables increases direct and indirect employment in the sector to 24.4 million by 2030. Renewable energy jobs will grow across all technologies, with a high concentration in the same technologies that account for a majority of the employment today, namely bioenergy, hydropower and solar. Along the renewable energy value chain, most renewable energy jobs will come from fuel supply (bioenergy feedstocks), installations and equipment manufacturing.
    - Renewable energy deployment affects trade of energy-related equipment and services as well as of fossil fuels. Trade in renewable energy equipment and other investment goods and services will increase as a result of the scaled-up deployment in power and end-use sectors. At the same time, this will result in a decrease in trade of other energy sources, notably fossil fuels.
  • Source: http://www.bmwi.de/EN/Topics/Energy/Renewable-Energy/renewable-energy-at-a-glance,did=667458.html
  • Source: http://energytransition.de/2014/08/renewable-energy-patents-boom-in-germany/
  • Source: Renewables 2015: Global Status Report 2015. REN21. http://www.ren21.net/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/REN12-GSR2015_Onlinebook_low1.pdf
  • So why these different developments between countries.

    Its not because of the size of the countries.

    So there might be another simple reason: the renewable potential . But look at the potential of these two countries. The lighter it gets the better.
  • The reason of course are policies and measures that make investments more attractive, innovation/research/development more likely, and the employment of technologies more likely.

    The need for robust support mechanisms that give renewables a chance to flourish even faster than they already do.
  • Source: http://www.energy.ca.gov/renewables/tracking_progress/documents/renewable.pdf
  • Source: The Danish Government. 2011. http://www.ens.dk/sites/ens.dk/files/policy/danish-climate-energy-policy/our_future_energy.pdf


  • Source: Danish Energy Agency. 2012. http://www.ens.dk/sites/ens.dk/files/dokumenter/publikationer/downloads/energy_policy_in_denmark_-_web.pdf
  • Source: The Danish Government. 2011. http://www.ens.dk/sites/ens.dk/files/policy/danish-climate-energy-policy/our_future_energy.pdf


  • Source: https://www.grupoice.com/wps/wcm/connect/8823524c-7cc7-4cef-abde-a1f06e14da0e/matriz_folleto_web2.pdf?MOD=AJPERES
  • Source: Greenpeace, Global Wind Energy Council, Solar Power Europe. Energy Revolution. A Sustainable World Energy Outlook 2015.
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