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George Karapalidis
VERTICAL LEAP
Predicting keyword revenue
@gkarapalidis
https://www.slideshare.net/GeorgeKarapalidisMBA
mail:
SEO is changing
Embrace the mindset
of a data scientist.
@verticalleap
mail:
SEM is changing
Embrace the mindset
of a data scientist.
@verticalleap
mail:
@verticalleap
“If I had only one hour to save
the world, I would spend fifty-
five minutes defining the
problem, and...
mail:
@verticalleap
1. Exploratory data analysis
2. Time series analysis
3. Predicting the future
Learn from your data!
mail:
@verticalleap
1. Exploratory data analysis
2. Time series analysis
3. Predicting the future
4. Data-driven attributi...
mail:
@verticalleap
What is our future?
mail:
@verticalleap
mail:
@verticalleap
EXPLORATORY
DATA ANALYSIS
TIME SERIES
ANALYSIS
PREDICTIONS
DATA-DRIVEN
ATTRIBUTION
mail:
@verticalleap
Data Science JourneyFrom data to actionable insights
mail:
Client’s request
50% YoY revenue increase from
organic traffic by 2020
@verticalleap
mail:
@verticalleap
Question
everything!
mail:
Exploratory data analysis
Find all metrics relevant to the
problem and exclude those that
generate noise.
@verticall...
mail:
@verticalleap
Where is traffic coming from?
mail:
@verticalleap
Where is traffic coming from?
mail:
@verticalleap
Where are transactions coming from?
mail:
@verticalleap
Explore correlations
mail:
@verticalleap
Explore correlations
Direct
Organic Paid
Referral
mail:
Time series analysis
Try to identify patterns in our data
and frequency of events.
@verticalleap
mail:
@verticalleap
Time series analysis
Do not just look at the overall trends.
Look at the details!
mail:
@verticalleap
Time series decomposition
mail:
@verticalleap
Seasonality trends
mail:
@verticalleap
Seasonality trends
mail:
@verticalleap
Seasonality trends
mail:
@verticalleap
Events and correlations
Find important events that
correlate with traffic changes
and use them to your...
mail:
@verticalleap
Events and correlations
mail:
Predictive analysis
Analysing current and historical
facts to make accurate forecasts
about the future.
@verticalleap
mail:
@verticalleap
Exponential smoothing (ETS)
ETS applies a
higher weight to
recent
observations.
mail:
@verticalleap
Exponential smoothing (ETS)
Import data Search “forecast” Magic
mail:
@verticalleap
ARIMA
http://bit.ly/2G70NtY
Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average
It works well with
non-stationary...
mail:
@verticalleap
ARIMA
http://bit.ly/2D3BdFG http://bit.ly/2U9zcNH
mail:
@verticalleap
Forecasting comparisons
Experiment with data ranges.
Find the one with lowest
MAPE.
http://bit.ly/2VAZ...
mail:
@verticalleap
http://bit.ly/2InYlCf
Documentation
http://bit.ly/2uStcil
Video
mail:
Data-Driven Attribution
Uses data from GA to generate a
custom model for assigning
conversion credit to marketing
to...
mail:
@verticalleap
Heuristic attribution models
mail:
@verticalleap
How to get started?
3x
Custom dimensions
3x
User-defined variables
mail:
@verticalleap
Client ID
mail:
@verticalleap
Client ID
Use the GA custom dimension ID
mail:
@verticalleap
Session ID
mail:
@verticalleap
Timestamp
mail:
@verticalleap
Data per session
mail:
@verticalleap
Data per session
Client ID
Timestamp
Session ID
Medium
Device
Source
Revenue
Landing page
Conversion
mail:
@verticalleap
User sequences
mail:
@verticalleap
Data-driven analytics
mail:
@verticalleap
Model comparison
mail:
@verticalleap
Removal effect
mail:
@verticalleap
Contribution analysis
mail:
@verticalleap
1. Use only valuable data.
2. Identify important events.
3. Be flexible with your predictive models.
4...
mail:
@verticalleap
Thank you!
gkarapalidis@vertical-leap.uk
@verticalleap | @gkarapalidis
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Why data science analysis in better than yours!

3,983 views

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This is my second time presenting at BrightonSEO.

We focused on techniques and approaches on how to analyse data to understand past and future performance, including:

– How to perform historic data exploration like a data scientist
– What we can learn from the past: Time Series Analysis
– How to predict the future: Machine learning techniques
– Data-Driven Attribution models and analysis

Published in: Marketing
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Why data science analysis in better than yours!

  1. 1. George Karapalidis VERTICAL LEAP Predicting keyword revenue @gkarapalidis https://www.slideshare.net/GeorgeKarapalidisMBA
  2. 2. mail: SEO is changing Embrace the mindset of a data scientist. @verticalleap
  3. 3. mail: SEM is changing Embrace the mindset of a data scientist. @verticalleap
  4. 4. mail: @verticalleap “If I had only one hour to save the world, I would spend fifty- five minutes defining the problem, and only five minutes finding the solution.” Some German guy
  5. 5. mail: @verticalleap 1. Exploratory data analysis 2. Time series analysis 3. Predicting the future Learn from your data!
  6. 6. mail: @verticalleap 1. Exploratory data analysis 2. Time series analysis 3. Predicting the future 4. Data-driven attribution Learn from your data!
  7. 7. mail: @verticalleap What is our future?
  8. 8. mail: @verticalleap
  9. 9. mail: @verticalleap EXPLORATORY DATA ANALYSIS TIME SERIES ANALYSIS PREDICTIONS DATA-DRIVEN ATTRIBUTION
  10. 10. mail: @verticalleap Data Science JourneyFrom data to actionable insights
  11. 11. mail: Client’s request 50% YoY revenue increase from organic traffic by 2020 @verticalleap
  12. 12. mail: @verticalleap Question everything!
  13. 13. mail: Exploratory data analysis Find all metrics relevant to the problem and exclude those that generate noise. @verticalleap
  14. 14. mail: @verticalleap Where is traffic coming from?
  15. 15. mail: @verticalleap Where is traffic coming from?
  16. 16. mail: @verticalleap Where are transactions coming from?
  17. 17. mail: @verticalleap Explore correlations
  18. 18. mail: @verticalleap Explore correlations Direct Organic Paid Referral
  19. 19. mail: Time series analysis Try to identify patterns in our data and frequency of events. @verticalleap
  20. 20. mail: @verticalleap Time series analysis Do not just look at the overall trends. Look at the details!
  21. 21. mail: @verticalleap Time series decomposition
  22. 22. mail: @verticalleap Seasonality trends
  23. 23. mail: @verticalleap Seasonality trends
  24. 24. mail: @verticalleap Seasonality trends
  25. 25. mail: @verticalleap Events and correlations Find important events that correlate with traffic changes and use them to your advantage.
  26. 26. mail: @verticalleap Events and correlations
  27. 27. mail: Predictive analysis Analysing current and historical facts to make accurate forecasts about the future. @verticalleap
  28. 28. mail: @verticalleap Exponential smoothing (ETS) ETS applies a higher weight to recent observations.
  29. 29. mail: @verticalleap Exponential smoothing (ETS) Import data Search “forecast” Magic
  30. 30. mail: @verticalleap ARIMA http://bit.ly/2G70NtY Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average It works well with non-stationary datasets.
  31. 31. mail: @verticalleap ARIMA http://bit.ly/2D3BdFG http://bit.ly/2U9zcNH
  32. 32. mail: @verticalleap Forecasting comparisons Experiment with data ranges. Find the one with lowest MAPE. http://bit.ly/2VAZ9Y6
  33. 33. mail: @verticalleap http://bit.ly/2InYlCf Documentation http://bit.ly/2uStcil Video
  34. 34. mail: Data-Driven Attribution Uses data from GA to generate a custom model for assigning conversion credit to marketing touchpoints throughout the user journey. @verticalleap
  35. 35. mail: @verticalleap Heuristic attribution models
  36. 36. mail: @verticalleap How to get started? 3x Custom dimensions 3x User-defined variables
  37. 37. mail: @verticalleap Client ID
  38. 38. mail: @verticalleap Client ID Use the GA custom dimension ID
  39. 39. mail: @verticalleap Session ID
  40. 40. mail: @verticalleap Timestamp
  41. 41. mail: @verticalleap Data per session
  42. 42. mail: @verticalleap Data per session Client ID Timestamp Session ID Medium Device Source Revenue Landing page Conversion
  43. 43. mail: @verticalleap User sequences
  44. 44. mail: @verticalleap Data-driven analytics
  45. 45. mail: @verticalleap Model comparison
  46. 46. mail: @verticalleap Removal effect
  47. 47. mail: @verticalleap Contribution analysis
  48. 48. mail: @verticalleap 1. Use only valuable data. 2. Identify important events. 3. Be flexible with your predictive models. 4. Perform multichannel attribution analysis. Think like a data scientist
  49. 49. mail: @verticalleap Thank you! gkarapalidis@vertical-leap.uk @verticalleap | @gkarapalidis

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