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Statistical clues to social injustice

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Lecture first given at the Radical Statistics Annual Conference, London, February 27th 2010. Slides created by Benjamin Hennig.

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Statistical clues to social injustice

  1. 1. Statistical clues to social injustice Danny Dorling University of Sheffield Radical Statistics Annual Conference London, February 27 th 2010
  2. 2. Proportions that suffer injustices of different kinds in affluent nations Fraction Subject How Labelled Description of group who suffer the injustice % Year A seventh Children Delinquent Found limited or simple at learning 13 2006 A sixth People Debarred Excluded from society in at least two ways 16 1999/2001 A fifth Adults Debtors Admit not managing to get by financially (if asked) 21 1984-2004 A quarter Households Discarded Have no car where car use has become assumed 26 2006/7 A third Families Depressed Member suffers depression or chronic anxiety disorder 33 2000 A half Citizens Disenfranchised Adults who did not or could not vote in the latest US presidential elections 46 2008
  3. 3. Injustices, social evils, political, philosophical and public labels combined 2010 Injustice 1942 Past 1983 Political 2007 Philosophical 2008 Public Elitism Ignorance 6. Differences in skills and ability 4. Threats to sense, using imagination, and thought 5. Threats to experiencing and expressing emotions freely 3. A decline in values, lack of tolerance, compassion and respect 4. Problems concerning young people, family breakdown and poor parenting Exclusion Want 1. The exploitation of those who work 3. Threats to bodily integrity 9. Threats to play, ability to relax, take Sabbaths and holidays 1. Problems caused by individualism, consumerism, decline in community life 2. Excessive use of drugs and alcohol, both as consequence and causes 5. Inequality and poverty, corrosive evil in an affluent society Prejudice Idleness (sexism and racism) 3. Unemployment 5. The economic subordination of women 6. Threats to being able to use practical reason (to be able to contribute) 7. Threats to affiliation, to belonging, having mutual respect 7. Violence and crime, child abuse and exploitation 8. Gender inequality, inequalities embedded in current thinking 9. Intolerance resulting from the beliefs of many religions, and similar ideas 10. Problems of attitudes to social diversity and immigration Greed Squalor 2. The inheritance of wealth by a minority 10. Threats to having control over one’s environment (to having rights) 8. Threats to other species, lack of concern sure to backfire 6. Problems caused by big business, apathy and a democratic deficit 12. Environmental issues, selfishness and insularity Despair Disease 4. Infirmity and the problems of old age 1. Threats to life 2. Threats to bodily health 11. Health problems, especially lack of care for older people
  4. 4. Children by ability in the Netherlands, according to the OECD, 2006 (%)
  5. 5. Distribution of children by ability, according to the OECD, 2006 (%)
  6. 6. School-leaving age (years) and university entry (%), Britain, 1876-2013 School leaving age University entry % years
  7. 7. Pearson goodness-of-fit test of Nobel prize by sex and subject, 1901–2008     Medicine Physics Chemistry Literature Peace Economics Total Observed men 184 180 149 94 84 62 753 women 8 1.5 2.5 11 12 0 35 total 192 181.5 151.5 105 96 62 788 Expected men 183.5 173.4 144.8 100.3 91.7 59.2 753 women 8.5 8.1 6.7 4.7 4.3 2.8 35 total 192.0 181.5 151.5 105.0 96.0 62.0 788.0 (O-E) men 0.5 6.6 4.2 -6.3 -7.7 2.8 0.0 women -0.5 -6.6 -4.2 6.3 7.7 -2.8 0.0 total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 (O-E)²/E men 0.0015 0.2482 0.1235 0.4001 0.6524 0.1280 1.55 women 0.0327 5.3407 2.6579 8.6087 14.0354 2.7538 33.43 total 0.03 5.59 2.78 9.01 14.69 2.88 34.98
  8. 8. Male and female Nobel (and economics) laureates, by subject, 1901-2008
  9. 9. Female Nobel laureates (%), by decade, worldwide, 1901-2009
  10. 10. Proportion of households poor by different measures (%), Britain, 1999
  11. 11. Pearson goodness-of-fit test of Karl Pearson’s pauper data, 1891 Paupers(P) normal(N) binomial(B) data(D) B-D (B-D)² (B-D)²/B -200 0 0 0 -150 0 0 0 -100 0 0 0 -50 2 0 0 0 4 1 0 * 50 10 4 2   100 19 18 20 1 1 0.043 150 37 44 47 -3 9 0.205 200 63 73 73 0 0 0.000 250 83 90 90 0 0 0.000 300 97 105 100 5 25 0.238 350 97 92 90 2 4 0.043 400 83 75 75 0 0 0.000 450 63 55 55 0 0 0.000 500 37 36 40 -4 16 0.444 550 21 20 21 -1 1 0.050 600 10 12 11 1 1 0.083 650 4 5 5 -1 1 0.143 700 2 1 1   750 0 1 1   800 0 0 0   850 0 0 1 * 900 0 0 0 950 0 0 0 1000 0 0 0 Total 632 632 632 1.250
  12. 12. Geographical distribution of paupers, England and Wales, 1891
  13. 13. Circling from exclusion to inclusion and back again (model) Exclusively Wealthy Core Poor Non-poor non-wealthy Asset wealthy
  14. 14. Distribution of income inequality (US$), worldwide, 2000
  15. 15. Real growth per decade in GDP (%), per person, by continent, 1955-2001
  16. 16. Households’ ability to get by on their income in Britain, 1984-2004
  17. 17. Inequalities of health, privilege and wealth, in Britain , 1918-2005 (%) Mortality inequality of decile groups by area Geographical concentration of national Conservative vote by area [c] National income share of best-off 1% Year   Excess of worse-off 30% (a)   Advantage if best-off 10% (b) pre-tax (d) post-tax (e) 1918 29% 35% 19% 19% 17% 1922 26% 30% 14% 18% 16% 1923 26% 30% 12% 19% 17% 1924 25% 28% 11% 18% 16% 1929 23% 25% 9% 17% 15% 1931 23% 26% 9% 16% 14% 1935 29% 31% 10% 14% 13% 1945 25% 25% 7% 13% 10% 1950 20% 18% 7% 12% 7% 1951 20% 18% 7% 12% 6% 1955 23% 21% 7% 9% 6% 1959 25% 23% 6% 9% 6% 1964 24% 21% 7% 9% 6% 1966 22% 20% 8% 9% 6% 1970 21% 18% 8% 7% 5% 1974 February   20%   17% 8% 7% 4% 1974 October   20%   17% 11% 6% 4% 1979 21% 19% 9% 6% 4% 1983 23% 21% 11% 7% 5% 1987 25% 22% 12% 8% 6% 1992 26% 25% 12% 10% 8% 1997 30% 29% 14% 12% 10% 2001 30% 30% 15% 13% 10% 2005 30% 30% 16% 16% 13%
  18. 18. Inequalities in survival chances to age 65 by area in Britain, 1920-2006
  19. 19. Concentration of Conservative votes, British general elections, 1918-2005
  20. 20. Share of all income received by the richest 1% in Britain, 1918-2005
  21. 21. England and Wales’s net immigration by birth year, 1840-2080
  22. 22. Households by number of cars, and those with no cars in Britain, 2006/07
  23. 23. Additional debt added annually by sector, US, 1977-2008 (US$ billion) Household debt   All debt Home Consumer Total Households Business State & local Federal Financial sectors Date mortgage credit   Debt Total Total governments government Domestic Foreign 1977 86 36 388 128 117 20 56 54 14 1978 106 46 489 160 139 39 53 75 24 1979 117 43 498 170 159 27 36 91 15 1980 90 3 440 108 135 22 77 73 24 1981 67 20 538 106 190 28 86 105 24 1982 47 19 549 84 153 42 161 93 16 1983 105 48 695 176 165 47 185 104 17 1984 127 82 958 219 323 53 197 158 8 1985 182 84 1164 314 256 164 226 204 1 1986 199 56 1185 261 295 74 216 329 10 1987 222 32 1016 264 221 90 144 291 6 1988 216 47 1042 272 307 50 155 250 7 1989 225 47 920 283 208 47 146 225 10 1990 199 15 892 232 131 47 247 211 24 1991 174 -9 641 184 -84 91 278 156 15 1992 171 9 775 199 -7 17 304 239 24 1993 157 61 923 238 10 58 256 292 70 1994 167 135 1029 323 145 -46 156 462 -11 1995 154 147 1197 310 285 -61 144 440 78 1996 206 106 1336 336 273 -21 145 514 88 1997 216 70 1458 301 439 51 23 574 70 1998 302 97 2071 426 567 67 -53 1027 37 1999 380 112 2090 495 582 37 -71 1027 19 2000 386 177 1735 584 560 17 -296 807 63 2001 507 151 2016 672 381 106 -6 874 -11 2002 706 108 2385 831 180 144 258 879 93 2003 860 104 2786 984 177 120 396 1067 42 2004 938 115 3126 1061 455 115 362 978 155 2005 1041 95 3553 1171 677 172 307 1114 113 2006 964 104 4025 1169 889 151 183 1301 331 2007 652 134 4395 849 1228 186 237 1771 124 2008 -46 44 2728 51 507 48 1239 1040 -158 Pearson product-moment correlation coefficients with annual federal government borrowing 0.01 -0.24 0.29 -0.01 0.01 0.20 1.00 0.19 -0.29
  24. 24. Outstanding consumer debt as a proportion of disposable income, US, 1975-2005
  25. 25. Poverty, car exhaust emissions and pollution inhaled in Britain, by area, 1999
  26. 26. Social security and taxation prosecutions, Australia, counts, 1989-2003
  27. 27. Debt payments as a percentage of disposable income, US, 1980-2008
  28. 28. Studies of adolescent depression available for meta-analysis, 1973-2006 Study number Place Year of birth Age at interview Obs Rates (%) Age<13 Rates aged 13-18 (%) Original Study, first author and citation Both Girls Boys 1 *Isle of Wight 54–55 14–15 483 3.2 Rutter (Graham & Rutter, 1973) 2 USA 65–74 10–20 776 2.5 3.7 7.6 1.6 Cohen (Velez, Johnson, & Cohen, 1989) 3 USA 65–74 10–20 776 3.1 Cohen (Velez et al., 1989) 4 USA 66–75 15–24 1769 7 12.4 1.5 Kessler(Kessler & Walters, 1998) 5 USA 66–75 15–24 1769 13 21.5 4.4 Kessler (Kessler & Walters, 1998) 6 Canada 66–79 6–16 2852 .6 1.8 2.3 1.2 Fleming (Fleming, Offord, & Boyle, 1989) 7 Puerto Rico 68–80 4–16 386 Bird (Bird et al., 1988) 8 *USA 69–74 14–18 1710 2.9 3.8 2 Lewinsohn (Lewinsohn et al., 1993) 9 USA 69–74 14–18 1710 3.2 3.7 2.6 Lewinsohn (Lewinsohn, Rohde, & Seeley, 1998) 10 *USA 71–72 13 792 1.8 2.1 2.2 2.1 Anderson (Anderson, Williams, McGee, & Silva, 1987) 11 NZ 71–72 15 792 2.8 4.4 1.2 Hankin (Hankin et al., 1998) 12 USA 71 8 70 1.5 Kashani (Kashani, Orvaschel, Rosenberg, & Reid, 1989) 13 USA 76 12 70 1.5 Kashani (Kashani et al., 1989) 14 USA 80 17 70 5.7 Kashani (Kashani et al., 1989) 15 USA 73–77 7–11 300 .8 Costello (Costello et al., 1988b) 16 USA 73–77 12–17 300 5.4 Costello (Costello, Angold, & Keeler, 1999) 17 USA 73–81 9–17 336 3.4 6 5.6 6.4 Angold (Angold et al., 2002) 18 USA 73–81 9–17 542 .7 2.1 3.4 .8 Angold (Angold et al., 2002) 19 USA 74–82 9–17 1285 Shaffer (Shaffer et al., 1996) 20 USA 74–83 8–16 2762 .4 2.4 2.1 Simonoff (Simonoff et al., 1997) 21 Netherlands 75–80 13–18 780 3.6 Verhulst (Verhulst, van der Ende, Ferdinand, & Kasius, 1997) 22 Canada 75–82 12–19 1847 2.6 12.5 6.2 Cairney (Cairney, 1998) 23 NZ 77 15 986 6.3 9.2 3.3 Fergusson (Fergusson, Horwood, & Lynskey, 1993) 24 NZ 77 18 1011 18.2 26.5 9.7 Fergusson (Fergusson & Horwood, 2001) 25 Switzerland 78–82 15–19 203 .6 5.3 9.8 1.1 Steinhausen (Steinhausen & Winkler Metzke, 2003) 26 USA 78–83 12–17 4023 13.9 7.4 Kilpatrick (Kilpatrick et al., 2003) 27 Switzerland 78–87 7–16 1964 .3 2.4 .0 Steinhausen(Steinhausen & Winkler Metzke, 2003) 28 Sweden 79–81 16–17 231 1.4 2.2 .6 Olsson (Olsson & von Knorring, 1999) 29 *USA-Anglo 79–82 12–15 558 4.3 4.5 4.0 Doi (Doi, Roberts, Takeuchi, & Suzuki, 2001) 30 *USA-African-American 79–82 12–15 665 6.1 6.5 5.7 Doi (Doi et al., 2001) 31 *USA-Mexican-American 79–82 12–15 429 9.0 11.4 6.3 Doi (Doi et al., 2001) 32 *Japan 79–82 12–15 494 1.3 .9 1.8 Doi (Doi et al., 2001) 33 Germany 80–83 14–16, 16–19 1395 8.0 10.2 5.8 Oldehinkel (Oldehinkel, Wittchen, & Schuster, 1999) 34 USA 80–84 9–16 4984 1.9 3.1 4.2 1.9 Costello (Costello et al., 1996) 35 USA 80–84 9–16 1691 1.1 3.0 4.2 1.9 Costello (Costello et al., 1996) 36 Finland 81 8–9 278 3.2 Almqvist (Almqvist, Kumpulainen et al., 1999) 37 Finland 81 8–9 278 5.9 Almqvist (Almqvist, Kumpulainen et al., 1999) 38 Finland 81 8–9 255 7.8 Almqvist (Almqvist, Puura et al., 1999) 39 Finland 81 8–9 180 4.7 Almqvist (Almqvist, Puura et al., 1999) 40 Australia 81–92 6–17 3597 2.3 4.0 4.7 3.4 Sawyer(Sawyer et al., 2001) 41 Puerto Rico 82–96 4–17 1886 2.1 5.8 9.7 2.0 Canino (Canino et al., 2004) (and personal communication) 42 GB 84–94 5–15 10438 .3 2.5 Ford (Ford, Goodman, & Meltzer, 2003) 43 Brazil 86–89 11–14 625 .2 1.9 Fleitlich-Bilyk(Fleitlich-Bilyk & Goodman, 2004) 44 Brazil 90–93 7–10 625 .2 Fleitlich-Bilyk (Fleitlich-Bilyk & Goodman, 2004) 45 *USA 90–93 11–12 508 3.0 Van der Stoep (personal communication) Study number Place Year of birth Age at interview Obs Rates (%) Age<13 Original Study, first author and citation Both Girls Boys
  29. 29. Adolescent girls assessed as depressed (%), North America, 1984-2001
  30. 30. Male/female mortality ratio by age in the rich world, 1850–1999
  31. 31. The fractal nature of geographical divides, North–South/West–East, Britain, 2010
  32. 32. The crash: US mortgage debt, 1977-2009 (% change and US$ billion)
  33. 33. The rate of prescribing anti-depressants by the NHS in Scotland, 1992-2006
  34. 34. Credits <ul><li>Slideshow created by Benjamin Hennig </li></ul><ul><li>The tables and figures from this presentation will soon be available from: http://www.policypress.co.uk/ </li></ul><ul><li>(search for ‘injustice’ in the search box) </li></ul><ul><li>The fully animated version of this slideshow is available as a PowerPoint document on </li></ul><ul><li>http://sheffield.ac.uk/geography/staff/dorling_danny/lectures.html </li></ul>

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