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Acknowledgments
It gives me great pleasure to acknowledge the guidance and support I have received during the
study. At th...
Acronyms
ANRS

Amhara National Regional State

BCS

Bahir Dar City Service

BCSO

Bahir Dar City Service Office

BDIDP

Ba...
Table of contents

Page Number

Acknowledgments .............................................................................
2.5.1.1 Urbanization in Ethiopia
2.5.2. Demographic trends of urbanization
2.5.3. Views of urbanization
2.5.4 Causes and c...
3.3.1.2 Method of data analysis
3.3.2 Socio-economic and environmental study
3.3.2.1 Data acquisition
3.3.2.1.1 Interviewi...
4.6.1.2. Impact of urban expansion on environment
4.6.2 Response of farmer households affected by urban expansion
4.6.2.1 ...
List of tables
Table 1: Population size and growth rate of Bahir Dar town ...................................................
List of figures
Figure 1: Map of the study area .............................................................................
Chapter One
1. Introduction
1.1 Background and statement of problem
Land cover describes vegetation and man-made features,...
or more, and about seventy percent of them are found in the developing world. By 2007, for the
first time in human history...
of the rapidly growing cities in the country. Early before foundation of the surrounding area was
occupied by dense forest...
change and its impact on carrying capacity and food security in Southern Wollo. Moreover,
Belayneh (2007) evaluated effect...
Chapter Two
2. Literature review
2.1 The concept of land use land cover change
2.1.1 Land use land cover
A global agreemen...
change. Similarly, Fan et al., (2007) explained that land use and land cover change is a major
issue in global environment...
proximate causes (Lambin and Geist, 2003). The conceptual understanding of proximate causes
and underlying forces help to ...
cover. The variations of tropical forests, temperate forests, boreal forests and tropical savanna,
and their feedbacks und...
2.3 Consequences of land use/ land cover change
2.3.1. Impact of land use land /cover change in forests dynamics
The world...
biological diversity (Sala and others 2000), contribute to local and regional climate change as
well as to global climate ...
Study conducted in Burkina Faso (Fisher et al., 2008) also shows that, increased population
growth and climate variability...
including forests and shrub lands (Selamyihun, 2004; Girmay, 2003; Belay, 2002; Gete and
Hurni 2001; and Solomon, 1994 as ...
Moreover, urban communities can be defined in any number of ways including by population
size, population density, adminis...
2.5.1 History of urbanization
The natural history of urbanization has not yet been written, for only a small part of the
p...
city from the village was made possible by the improvements in plant cultivation and stockbreeding that came with Neolithi...
the 1967-75 periods, whereas natural population growth may have been mostly responsible for
urban expansion during the 197...
Africa, which used to be known as the continent of villages, the urban population is expanding at
an average rate of almos...
economic opportunities in urban areas attract rural workers, who gain directly and there, may
also be positive feedback ef...
As some studies indicate that, paradoxically in a few developed countries the urban population
will decrease. Despite the ...
the urban areas offer few jobs for the youth, they are often attracted there by the amenities of
urban life (Tarver, 1996)...
of urban population growth worldwide is caused by natural increase, with migration accounting
for only 25% of growth in Af...
As study conducted in North America the residential expansion allowed in the unconstrained
development scenario increases ...
is associated with widespread removal of vegetation to support urban ecosystem and put
additional pressure on nearby areas...
Reducing or even reversing the flow of rural-urban migrants has been the most common policy
pursued by Governments wishing...
currently urban development policy of Ethiopia is attempting to implement two extremely
different strategies, the first is...
Chapter Three
3. Materials and methods
3.1 Description of the study area
3.1.1 Physical
3.1 .1.1 Location
Bahir Dar, the c...
Bahir Dar town and surrounding kebelles

Figure 1: Map of the study area
Source: BoFED Amhara Region, 2009
3.1.1.2 Topography
Topographically, the town lies on a flat level of unnoticeable slope change except small raise in
easte...
3.1.1.3.1 Temperature
Temperature variation spatially and seasonally depends on latitude, altitude, humidity and wind
regi...
3.1.1.3.2 Rainfall
The average annual rainfall of the area is 1445.5 mm. Four months (January, February, March
and Decembe...
the town and its vicinity. The first type represents red clay soils the color of which is the result of
reduction of mafic...
3.1.2.2 Ethnic composition
Table 2: Major ethnic groups of Bahir Dar town
Major ethnic group

1984

1994

Agew/Awingi

0.8...
shown fast development by attracting foreign and national visitors. For example, in 2008/09,
from 41155 visitors (both dom...
Table 4: Manufacturing industries in Bahir Dar town

Ownership of
industry
Government
Private
Total

Types of industry
Tex...
6 health officers. The ratio of doctor to patient for the hospital is about 1:30. Currently it is
serving for about 300-50...
water bodies of the surrounding (Lake Tana and River Abay). It means periphery of a water
body, which may be a periphery t...
construction of Abay River Bridge and the opening of all weather roads that connected Bahir Dar
with important towns like ...
questionnaire, observation, and interviews. Secondary data have been collected from census
results, documents, published a...
the accuracy of rectification was cheeked by using ground truth; and considering residual errors
at the time of rectificat...
from population and housing census results, and for the year 1957 and 2009 population size was
generated by projection. Ba...
Sources of Data

Aerial photographs in
1957, 1984 and1994

Delineation
of the town
for the year
2009

Scanning aerial
phot...
3.3.2 Socio-economic and environmental study
3.3.2.1 Data acquisition
3.3.2.1.1 Interviewing key –informants in the town
U...
3.3.2.1.3 Questionnaire
To estimate the total population of farmer households who have been affected by urban
expansion, t...
urban expansion and its impact on surrounding rural communities. The final analysis, however,
is done on the basis of 271 ...
assigned. Enumerators were chosen from the area of the sample farmer households and thus,
assigned to their respective sit...
Chapter Four
4. Results and discussion
4.1 The aerial extent and direction of urban expansion
According to interview made ...
Abay River for easy accessibility of water. Moreover, in the three directions urban expansion
was mainly taken place, in f...
Figure 5: Physical expansion trends of Bahir Dar town (1957-2009)
Urban expansion change between the year 1994 and 2009 wa...
Tana different lodges, restaurants, hotels and coffee houses were established and being
constructing due to investment opp...
4.2.1 Land use /land cover change as result of horizontal expansion
The following four land use land cover categories: bui...
hand, forest land and water bodies also increased by 5.44 and 15.35 ha per year, respectively.
This is mainly due to expan...
and water bodies by 35.57 ha per year. The possible factor that contributed for urban expansion
may be population growth a...
Figure 8: Land use of Bahir Dar town, 1984

Figure 9: Land use of Bahir Dar town, 1994
%

1984

6.02

21.99

171.53

279.04

Forest land

Water bodies

Others

Total area(ha)

100

61.47

7.88

2.16

28.49

11...
4.2.2 Land use/ land cover change as a result of intensification
4.2.2.1 Land use/ land cover intensification from 1957 to...
was 3.15 ha per year. Moreover, forestland decreased by 2.32 ha (38.54%). Water bodies also
decreased by 1.96 ha (8.91%), ...
Figure 10: Land use of Bahir Dar town in 1957, [1984 and 1994] clipped by 1957 boundary
4.2.2.2 Land use/ land cover intensification from 1984 to 1994
Land cover of 1984 shows that built up area was 625.87 ha (...
Figure 11: Land use of Bahir Dar town in 1984 and 1994, clipped by 1984 boundary
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Genetu thesis

  1. 1. Acknowledgments It gives me great pleasure to acknowledge the guidance and support I have received during the study. At the beginning, I would like to express my heartfelt thanks and profound sense of gratitude to Dr. Nigussie Hargeweyn for his constructive comments, guidance and suggestions from the beginning to the end of the study, without whom this work was difficult to come to an end. I would also like to thank my parents and family for the support they provided me throughout my entire life especially for my mother W/o Azalech Endalew, My father Ato Fekadu Akalu and my brother Desalgn Fekadu. A Very special thank goes out to Tilay Bitew, Belayneh Bogale, Dagnew Fekadu, Girma Eshite, Alebachew Biadigie, Abebe Birhanu and Adeiam Bazezew for their moral and material support during study. I would like to extend my thanks to workers of Bahir Dar City service who assisted me in providing valuable information during data collection. Finally, it is great interest of me to thank my friends whom they helped me during the study.
  2. 2. Acronyms ANRS Amhara National Regional State BCS Bahir Dar City Service BCSO Bahir Dar City Service Office BDIDP Bahir Dar Integrated Development Plan BoFED Bureau of Finance and Economic Development BMA Bureau of Metropolitan Administration BSZ Bahir Dar Special Zone BWUD Bureau of Works and Urban Development CSA Central Statistical Authority DA Development Agent E.C Ethiopian Calendar EMA Ethiopian Mapping Authority ERDAS Earth Resources Data Analysis System ESA Ecological Society of America FAO Food and Agricultural Organization FGD Focused Group Discussion FUPI Federal Urban Planning Institute GCPs Ground Control Points GDP Gross Domestic Product GIS Geographic Information System GNP Gross National Product GPS Global Positioning System ha hectare ILO International Labor Organization N North NGO Non Government Organization UN United Nations UTM Universal Transfer Mercator y Year
  3. 3. Table of contents Page Number Acknowledgments ........................................................................................................................ i Acronyms ...................................................................................................................................... iii List of tables.................................................................................................................................. ix List of figures ................................................................................................................................. x Chapter One .................................................................................................................................. 1 1. Introduction ............................................................................................................................... 1 1.1 BACKGROUND AND STATEMENT OF PROBLEM 1.2 HYPOTHESIS 1.3 OBJECTIVES 1.3.1 General objective 1.3.2 Specific objectives Chapter Two .................................................................................................................................. 5 2. Literature review ...................................................................................................................... 5 2.1 THE CONCEPT OF LAND USE LAND COVER CHANGE 2.1.1 Land use land cover 2.1.2 Land use land cover change 2.2 PROXIMATE VERSUS UNDERLYING CAUSES OF LAND USE /LAND COVER CHANGE 2.3 CONSEQUENCES OF LAND USE/ LAND COVER CHANGE 2.3.1. Impact of land use land /cover change in forests dynamics 2.3.2 Impact of land use/ land cover change on biodiversity 2.3.3 Impact of land use/ land cover change in cultivated land 2.4. LAND USE/ LAND COVER CHANGES IN ETHIOPIA 2.5. URBANIZATION 2.5.1 History of urbanization
  4. 4. 2.5.1.1 Urbanization in Ethiopia 2.5.2. Demographic trends of urbanization 2.5.3. Views of urbanization 2.5.4 Causes and consequences of urban expansion 2.5.4.1 Causes of urban expansion 2.5.4.2 Consequences of urban expansion 2.5.4.2.1. The effects of urban expansion on farmlands 2.5.4.2.2 The effects of urban expansion on environment 2.5.5. Urban expansion policies 3. Materials and methods ........................................................................................................... 26 3.1 DESCRIPTION OF THE STUDY AREA 3.1.1 Physical 3.1 .1.1 Location 3.1.1.2 Topography 3.1.1.3 Climate 3.1.1.3.1 Temperature 3.1.1.3.2 Rainfall 3.1.1.4 Soil 3.1.2 Demographic characteristics 3.1.2.1 Population size and trends in Bahir Dar town 3.1.2.2 Ethnic composition 3.1.3 Socio-economic characteristics 3.1.3.1 Economic activities in Bahir Dar town 3.1.3.2 Physical and social infrastructures 3.1.4 Historical development of Bahir Dar town 3.2 MATERIALS 3.3 DATA ACQUISITION AND METHODS OF ANALYSIS 3.3.1 Land use/ land cover change study 3.3.1.1 Data acquisition and classification
  5. 5. 3.3.1.2 Method of data analysis 3.3.2 Socio-economic and environmental study 3.3.2.1 Data acquisition 3.3.2.1.1 Interviewing key –informants in the town 3.3.2.1.2 Focus group discussions 3.3.2.1.3 Questionnaire 3.3.2.1.3.1 Data gathering procedures from dispossessed farmer households 3.3.2.1.3.2 Variables used for questionnaire 3.3.2.2 Methods of data analysis Chapter Four ............................................................................................................................... 46 4. Results and discussion ............................................................................................................ 46 4.1 THE AERIAL EXTENT AND DIRECTION OF URBAN EXPANSION 4.2 LAND USE/ LAND COVER CHANGE ANALYSIS 4.2.1 Land use /land cover change as result of horizontal expansion 4.2.1.1 Land use /land cover change from 1957 -1984 4.2.1.2 Land use /land cover change from 1984 -1994 4.2.1.3 Land use /land cover change from 1957 -1994 4.2.2 Land use/ land cover change as a result of intensification 4.2.2.1 Land use/ land cover intensification from 1957 to 1994 4.2.2.2 Land use/ land cover intensification from 1984 to 1994 4.3 CAUSES OF URBAN EXPANSION 4.3.1 Population growth 4.3.2 Increment for housing demand 4.3.3 Urban development policy 4.4 LAND CONSUMPTION RATE AND ABSORPTION COEFFICIENT OF BAHIR DAR TOWN 4.5 FUTURE EXPANSION TRENDS OF THE TOWN AND PREDICTED LAND LOSS 4.6 SOCIO-ECONOMIC AND ENVIRONMENTAL DATA ANALYSES 4.6.1 Response of urban dwellers on urban expansion 4.6.1.1 Impacts of urban expansion on access to social services
  6. 6. 4.6.1.2. Impact of urban expansion on environment 4.6.2 Response of farmer households affected by urban expansion 4.6.2.1 Compensation payment, utilization and farmers attitude 4.6.2.1.1 Procedures for compensation payment 4.6.2.1.2 Utilization of compensation 4.6.2.1.3. Farmer households’ attitude on compensation paid by income 4.6.2.2 Farmer households’ response on adaptation to urban way of life 4.6.2.3 Consequences of urban expansion on surrounding rural communities 4.6.2.3.1 Impacts of urban expansion on land holding size and permanent trees 4.6.2.3.2 Impact of urban expansion on livestock 4.6.2.3.3 Impacts of urban expansion on access to social services 4.6.2.3.4 Impact of urban expansion on occupation 4.6.2.3.5 Impact of urban expansion on environment 4.6.2.3.6 Impact of urban expansion on social affairs 4.6.3 Attitude of non-affected rural communities on urban expansion 4.6.4 Impact of urban expansion on affected and non-affected farmer households Chapter Five ................................................................................................................................ 87 5. Conclusion and Recommendations ....................................................................................... 87 5.1 CONCLUSION 5.2 RECOMMENDATIONS References .................................................................................................................................... 90 Appendix ...................................................................................................................................... 98
  7. 7. List of tables Table 1: Population size and growth rate of Bahir Dar town ....................................................... 31 Table 2: Major ethnic groups of Bahir Dar town .......................................................................... 32 Table 3: Tourists visited Bahir Dar and amount of money collected in birr ................................ 33 Table 4: Manufacturing industries in Bahir Dar town .................................................................. 34 Table 5: Distribution of sample farmer households ..................................................................... 43 Table 6: Area and average annual expansion rate of Bahir Dar town from 1957 to 2009 ........... 47 Table 7: Land use cover distribution and annual rate of change from 1957 to 1994 ................... 54 Table 8: Intensification of land use land cover change [1957-1994 and 1984-1994] .................. 60 Table 9: Land Consumption Rate (LCR) and Land Absorption Coefficient (LAC) .................... 64 Table 10: Population growth estimates and projected urban expansion from 2007 to 2024 ........ 67 Table 11: Benefits promised and given for farmers who dislocated from their land ................... 72 Table 12: Farmers’ utilization of money compensation ............................................................... 75 Table 13: Farmers’ response on compensation paid by income ................................................... 76 Table 14: Types of properties before and after land expropriation .............................................. 78 Table 15: Livestock population before and after land expropriation ........................................... 79 Table 16: Household heads benefited social services by kebele .................................................. 81 Table 17 : Farmer household’s occupation after land expropriation ............................................ 82 Table 18: Farmers response on impact of urban expansion.......................................................... 86
  8. 8. List of figures Figure 1: Map of the study area .................................................................................................... 27 Figure 2: Temperature data for 48 years (1961-2008) .................................................................. 29 Figure 3: Rainfall data for 48 years (1961-2008) ......................................................................... 30 Figure 4: Flow chart that shows procedures followed during data collection and analysis ......... 41 Figure 5: Physical expansion trends of Bahir Dar town (1957-2009) .......................................... 48 Figure 6: Physical expansion trends of Bahir Dar town/Superimposed/ [1957-2009] ................. 49 Figure 7: Land use of Bahir Dar town, 1957 ................................................................................ 52 Figure 8: Land use of Bahir Dar town, 1984 ................................................................................ 53 Figure 9: Land use of Bahir Dar town, 1994 ................................................................................ 53 Figure 10: Land use of Bahir Dar town in 1957, [1984 and 1994] clipped by 1957 boundary ... 57 Figure 11: Land use of Bahir Dar town in 1984 and 1994, clipped by 1984 boundary ............... 59 Figure 12: Members of focused group discussion with researcher............................................... 73 Figure 13: Solid wastes disposed at Gordima land fill site in Bahir Dar town ............................ 84
  9. 9. Chapter One 1. Introduction 1.1 Background and statement of problem Land cover describes vegetation and man-made features, whereas land use is characterized by the arrangements, activities and inputs people undertake in a certain land cover type to produce, change or maintain it (FAO 2005 as cited in FAO, 2008). Information on land use land cover is essential for the selection, planning and implementation of land use schemes to meet the increasing demands for basic human needs and welfare. Moreover, land use and land cover change has become a central component in current strategies for managing natural resources and monitoring environmental changes (Zubair, 2006). There are some factors that influence land use land cover change, these factors are driving forces. Driving forces are generally subdivided into two broad categories: proximate causes and underlying causes (Bedru, 2006). Proximate causes are the activities and actions which directly affect land use. Underlying causes are factors that trigger the proximate causes, including demographic pressure, economic policy, technological development, institutional and cultural factors (Geist and Lambin, 2002). Nowadays urbanization has also been contributing for land use land cover change. Urbanization is the outcome of social, economic and political developments that lead to urban concentration and growth of large cities, changes in land use, and transformation from rural to metropolitan patterns of organization and governance (Satterthwaite, 2005). At the beginning of the twentieth century, just 16 cities in the world, the vast majority in advanced industrial countries contained a million people or more. Today, almost 400 cities contain a million people
  10. 10. or more, and about seventy percent of them are found in the developing world. By 2007, for the first time in human history, more people in the world will be living in cities and towns than will be living in rural areas and by 2017 the developing world is likely to have become more urban in character than rural (Cohen, 2005). Another study also indicates that, population size that lives in towns and cities is expected to rise to almost five billion by 2030 (Sherbinin and Martine, 2007). There is variation of urbanization in developing and developed countries by percentage of population live in cities and town, and in the way in which urbanization is occurring. For instance, African urbanization starts with the introduction of foreign religions [Christianity and Islam], slave trade, colonialism, and neo-colonialism (Achankeng, 2003). Even these factors have brought sub-regional and national variations within Africa. North African sub-region is most urbanized and has an average urban population of 54 percent. The other sub-regions are as follows: West Africa (40 %), Southern Africa (39 %), Central Africa (36 %), Western Indian Ocean Islands (36 %), and East Africa, the least (23 %). Urbanization in Ethiopia is a recent phenomenon that came into being around the end of 19th and the beginning of 20th century although there were some braked indications before this time backwards (FUPI,2006). According to three successive census years, the urban population of Ethiopia was 12.21% (1984), 13.69 % (1994) and 16.17 % (2007) of the total population of the country. Between the first two successive population and housing census results demonstrate that national urban population size increased by 1.48% [more than two million people]. However, comparison of the 1994 census results with 2007 shows that the urban population of the country increased by 2.48% [more than four million persons] over the last 13 years (CSA, 1984, 1994 and 2007). Currently, many cities in Ethiopia manifest rapid urban expansion. Bahir Dar is one
  11. 11. of the rapidly growing cities in the country. Early before foundation of the surrounding area was occupied by dense forests and inhabited by various wild animal species although at far side peripheries there were wooden walled grass roofed huts. The land occupied by settlers estimated not more than three hectares and the population was 3,000 – 5,000 (http://campus.iss.nl/~group6/501607984? was Read=1). Beginning from that time as a rural village onwards, it has developed into one of the current largest cities of the country. This rapid expansion of the town has its own benefits and problems. Among problems, the major once are occupation of fertile agricultural lands, social instability and environmental pollution. Study shows that rapid urbanization in the poorest countries is straining the capacity of cities to provide basic amenities, degrading the quality of life, and impoverishing the environment (Sherbinin and Martine, 2007). To detect the land consumption rate, land use and land cover change and; to predict some possible changes that may occur in the future urban planners and policy makers must have basic tools, Geographic Information System and Remotely Sensed Data, for planning. In addition to, data collection at the field by manual delineation is too much time consuming and not accurate unlike that of remotely sensed data. The collection of remotely sensed data facilitates the synoptic analysis of Earth system, function, patterning, and change at local, regional and global scales over time (Wilkie and Finn, 1996). This makes planning very simple and the most reliable. Many researchers have conducted research on land use land cover changes by using Geographic Information Systems and Remote Sensing Data in Ethiopia. Among studies conducted on land use/ land cover changes, Belay (2002) conducted study on land cover land use changes in Derekolli catchment of the South Wollo. Tesfay (2007) also tried to analyze land use-land cover
  12. 12. change and its impact on carrying capacity and food security in Southern Wollo. Moreover, Belayneh (2007) evaluated effects of land use land cover on selected soil physico chemical properties in southern Gondor. However, emphasis was not yet given on land use and land cover change due to urbanization in the country at large and in the study area in particular. Hence, conducting on land use land cover change study helps to know the magnitude and extent of change as well as associated problems of a growing and expanding city at the expense of very productive arable land. 1.2 Hypothesis Physical expansion of Bihar Dar town has brought significant socio-economic and environmental consequences on the livelihood of the surrounding local people. 1.3 Objectives 1.3.1 General objective To evaluate the extent of urbanization and its impact on the surrounding rural communities of Bahir Bar town 1.3.2 Specific objectives o To determine the extent and direction of the expansion o To identify factors responsible for urban expansion o To generate data on land consumption rate and adsorption coefficient for the town o To predict the future expansion trends of the town o To evaluate socio-economic and environmental consequences of urbanization on the surrounding rural dwellers
  13. 13. Chapter Two 2. Literature review 2.1 The concept of land use land cover change 2.1.1 Land use land cover A global agreement on the definition and classification of both land use and land cover does not exist (FAO, 1997). It is also stated that, there is no one ideal classification of land use and land cover, and it is unlikely that one could ever be developed (Anderson et al., 1976). As a result many classification systems and innumerable map legends exist, and maps and statistics from different countries, and in many cases even from the same country, are incompatible with each other. However, the land cover is defined by the attributes of the earth’s land surface and immediate subsurface, including [biota, soil, topography, surface and groundwater, and human structures] whereas land use is more explained by the purposes for which humans exploit the land cover (Lambin et al., 2003). 2.1.2 Land use land cover change Today, virtually no land surface remains untouched in some way by humankind and about 50 percent of the ice free surface of Earth is considered significantly modified by human action (Turner, 2001). Land-use and land-cover change is one cornerstone of the science of global environmental change, sustainability, and increasingly, environment and development (Turner, 2002). Shi (2008) also explained that land-use and land-cover changes are local and place specific, and they currently become one of the most important facets of global environmental
  14. 14. change. Similarly, Fan et al., (2007) explained that land use and land cover change is a major issue in global environment change, and is especially significant in rapidly developing regions in the world. The focus has long been on the global aspect of land cover change because data were needed as input for carbon cycle analysis and global change modeling; today the local and regional aspects of land-use and land-cover change are also of concern (Lambin and Geist, 2003). Moreover, it is now well recognized, that at local, regional, and global scales, land use changes are significantly altering land cover, perhaps at an accelerating pace (Walsh et al., 2004 ). Knowledge about land use and land cover has become increasingly important for any country’s plans to overcome the problems of haphazard, uncontrolled development, deteriorating environmental quality, loss of prime agricultural lands, destruction of important wetlands, and loss of fish and wildlife habitat (James et al., 1976). However, understanding of the causes of land-use change has moved from simplistic representations of two or three driving forces to a much more profound understanding that involves situation-specific interactions among a large number of factors at different spatial and temporal scales (Lambin et al., 2003). In addition, land-use and land-cover changes are highly varied in kind, and follow from multiple and complex processes (Walsh et al., 2004.) 2.2 Proximate versus underlying causes of land use /land cover change Land use change is always caused by multiple interacting factors originating from different levels of organization of the coupled human environment systems (Lambin et al., 2003). Land use constantly changes in response to the dynamic interaction between underlying drivers and
  15. 15. proximate causes (Lambin and Geist, 2003). The conceptual understanding of proximate causes and underlying forces help to identify the causes of land-use and land-cover changes (Turner and Meyer, 1994 as cited in Solomon, 2005). Proximate causes of land use change constitute human activities or immediate actions that originate from intended land use and directly affect land cover while; underlying causes are fundamental forces that underpin the more proximate causes of land cover change (Lambin et al., 2003). Underlying driving forces are fundamental socio-economic and political processes that push proximate causes into immediate action on land use and land cover (Geist and Lambin, 2002). The underlying driving forces include demographic pressure, economic status, technological and institutional factors that influence land use land cover in combination, rather than as single causations (Turner et al., 1994). Proximate causes generally operate at the local level (individual farms, households, or communities) however; underlying causes may originate from the regional (districts, provinces, or country) or even global levels, with complex interplays between levels of organization (Lambin et al., 2003). Localized changes around the world added up to massive impacts (Fan et al., 2007). Land-use and land-cover change induced by both human activities and natural feedbacks have converted large proportion of the planet’s land surface (Shi, 2008). These landuse changes have important implications for future changes in the Earth’s climate and, consequently, great implications for subsequent land use change (Agarwal et al., 2001). It has been also reported that, historically the driving force for most land use change is a population growth (Ramankutty et al., 2002). As number of population increases from time to time, the exploitation of land resources also increases. This leads to change of land use and land
  16. 16. cover. The variations of tropical forests, temperate forests, boreal forests and tropical savanna, and their feedbacks under current climate change are results of human induced land use land cover changes (Shi, 2008). Consequently, this land use cover change has been recognized as an important driver of environmental change on all spatial and temporal scales (Turner et al., 1994). However, all impacts are not negative though, as many forms of land use and land cover changes are associated with continuing increases in food and fiber production, in resource use efficiency, and in wealth and well-being (Lambin et al., 2003). Now a day’s urbanization became one of the major causes for land use land cover change. Over the last 20 years, many urban areas have experienced dramatic growth, because of rapid population growth, and as the world’s economy have been transformed by a combination of rapid technological and political change (Cohen, 2005). The effect of urbanization on land use land cover change varies mainly on development of a country. Study indicates that urban consumption of agricultural land is partly due to the growing urban population and it is partly due to higher land consumption by each new urban dwelling (Hofmann ,2001). Land use and land cover in Shanghai have been greatly altered over the past three decades, as a result of the rapid expansion of urban areas, the area of urban land increased from 159.1 km2 in 1975 to 1179.3 km2 in 2005 (Zhao et al.,2006). Similarly, the conversion of other types of land to urban land use due to urbanization is a main type of land use and land cover change in human history (Weng, 2001).
  17. 17. 2.3 Consequences of land use/ land cover change 2.3.1. Impact of land use land /cover change in forests dynamics The world’s forests cover 42 million km2 areas in tropical, temperate, and boreal lands, 30% of the land surface (Shi, 2008). However, these world’s forests have been converted by human activities significantly. In-migration into forested, low-population density areas is the main demographic driver behind extensification processes, leading to initial or frontier conversion of forest cover (Lambin and Geist, 2003). Forest area decreased from 5000–6200 million ha in 1700 to 4300–5300 million ha in 1990 (Lambin et al., 2003). Moreover, recent figures indicate that approximately 9, 400, 000 ha forest per annum were lost during 1990–2000 (FAO, 2001). According to EFAP (1993), only 2.7 percent of Ethiopia’s land mass is currently estimated to be under forest cover, with a loss of 150,000 to 200,000 hectare of natural forest per annum. 2.3.2 Impact of land use/ land cover change on biodiversity Land-use changes that alter natural-disturbance regimes or initiate new disturbances are likely to cause changes in species, abundance and distribution, community composition, and ecosystem function (ESA, 2000). According to Ellis (2007), when land is transformed from a primary forest to a farm, the loss of forest species within deforested areas is immediate and complete. Similarly, land-cover change has led to, or is leading to, significant losses in species numbers and varieties worldwide (Turner et al., 1995). As study conducted in America (Parmenter et al., 2003), indicates the conversion of wild lands to rural residential and urban land uses may be detrimental to legally protected wildlife or to economically valuable game species. Land-use and land-cover changes directly impact
  18. 18. biological diversity (Sala and others 2000), contribute to local and regional climate change as well as to global climate warming (Chase and others 1999, Houghton and others 1999), and may cause land degradation by altering ecosystem services and livelihood support systems, thereby disrupting the socio cultural practices and institutions associated with managing those biophysical systems (Vitousek and others 1997) as cited in (Jianchu et al., 2005). In Ethiopia, 85 percent of domestic energy consumption is derived from forest products (EFAP, 1994) and this clearing land without selection to expand agricultural lands is the main cause of loss of biodiversity (Girma. et al., 2002). 2.3.3 Impact of land use/ land cover change in cultivated land The relationship between land use and soils is two dimensional i.e. land use affects soils and in reverse soils affect land use (Kahsay, 2004). Historically, humans have increased agricultural output mainly by bringing more land into production (Lambin et al., 2003). As a result of this, the area of cropland has increased globally from an estimated 300–400 million ha in 1700 to 1500–1800 million ha in 1990, about 4.5 to fivefold increase in three centuries and a 50% net increase just in the twentieth century (Lambin et al., 2003). Today, cropland conversion and, perhaps, intensification are most rapid in the less industrialized portions of the world, while the area of cropland has decreased in Europe (Richards, 1990). According to Turner et al. (1995), by the end of this century, most of the world's land area will be intensively and formally managed, and "open” lands will no longer exist. On the other hand, intensified production relies on significant chemical and fossil fuel inputs as well as irrigation, in some cases stressing catchment hydrology and leading to significant releases of N2O to the atmosphere (Turner, 2001).
  19. 19. Study conducted in Burkina Faso (Fisher et al., 2008) also shows that, increased population growth and climate variability were perceived to have pushed a formerly sustainable practice into a driver of land degradation. Similarly, vegetation removal for agriculture leaves soils vulnerable to massive increases in soil erosion by wind and water, especially on steep terrain, and when accompanied by fire (Ellis, 2007). 2.4. Land use/ land cover changes in Ethiopia The need to conduct research on historical Land Use and Land Cover change is that by understanding the past, it could be possible to make projections for the future (Kahsay, 2004). Similarly, land-cover analysis provides the baseline data required for proper understanding of how land was used in the past and what types of changes are to be expected in the future (Belay, 2002). The same study shows that, studies of land-cover changes also yield valuable information for analysis of the environmental impacts of human activities, climate change, and other forces. As many studies indicate that, among the land use changes occurring, the most significant historical change in land cover has been the expansion of agricultural lands. From 1700 to the mid 1980s, the largest land-cover change involved cropland, which increased globally by 392% to 466%, depending on the means of estimation, or from an area roughly the size of Argentina to that of the South American continent (Richards, 1990). Another study also indicates that, humans have been altering land cover since pre-history through the clearance of patches of land for agriculture and livestock (Shi, 2008). Different studies conducted using remotely sensed data of different years, for some parts of Ethiopia; also indicate that croplands have expanded at the expense of natural vegetation,
  20. 20. including forests and shrub lands (Selamyihun, 2004; Girmay, 2003; Belay, 2002; Gete and Hurni 2001; and Solomon, 1994 as cited in Kahsay, 2004). While the study conducted by Tadele and Förch (2007), shows that farmlands and settlements class has expanded which is mostly associated with the decrease in forest class for the years from 1975-2004. According to Solomon (2005), an increasing demand for cultivable land, rural settlement and farmland and grassland was the cause for change of forest land. This study shows that, almost 42% of the forest land was converted into cultivated land and 17.3% into farm land and settlement. Only 29.3% of the original forest remained unchanged. Girmay (2003) in his study, in Southern Wello, reported the decline of natural forests and grazing lands due to conversion to croplands. Similarly, Feoli et al., (2002) also reported the expansion of bush land and evergreen vegetation with population increases. 2.5. Urbanization The development of economy and society needs more and more land and promotes the change from rural region to urban region (Xiaoqing and Jianlan, 2007). Urbanization is a development phenomenon that comes about with the development of a country's economy in general and industrialization in particular (Tesfaye, 2007). Urbanization can be also viewed as a characteristic of the population, as a characteristic of particular kinds of land uses and land covers, as well as a characteristic of social and economic processes and interactions affecting both population and land (McIntyre et al., 2000). However, social scientists, demographers generally, but also urban policy analysts, geographers, and others generally define urbanization in terms of population densities (Long et al., 2001). In the same study physical scientists, mainly ecologists approach definitions of urbanization from the standpoint of the built environment.
  21. 21. Moreover, urban communities can be defined in any number of ways including by population size, population density, administrative or political boundaries, or economic function (Choen, 2005). On other hand, urban communities may be defined by physical borders, population size, geographic limits associated with administrative responsibilities or governance (Keiser et al., 2004). According to the same study, in Botswana, urban areas are defined as agglomerations of 5,000 or more inhabitants, with the majority depending on non-agricultural activities. In Ethiopia, however, localities of 2,000 or more people are classified as urban, and in Malawi all townships, town planning areas, and all district centers are defined as urban. Another study (Cohen, 2005) also shows that, in Angola, Argentina, and Ethiopia localities with 2000 inhabitants or more are considered urban, while in Benin only localities with 10,000 inhabitants or more are classified as urban. This indicates that, there is no global standard for the classification of urban environments. Due to, national differences in the definition of urbanization and the dependence of those definitions on administrative designations of political subunits have always made cross national comparisons difficult (Long et al., 2001). However, the United Nations defines urban populations as “localities with 20,000 or more inhabitants,” A country is said to become more urbanized as its cities grow in number, its urban populations increase in size, and the proportion of its population living in urban areas rises. Emily and Kedir (2009), spatially allocate urban versus non-urban areas by creating specific thresholds following two criteria whereby locations are categorized as urban if populations have: a population density greater than 150 people per km2; and are located within one hour travel time from a city of at least 50,000 people.
  22. 22. 2.5.1 History of urbanization The natural history of urbanization has not yet been written, for only a small part of the preliminary work has been done (Mumford, 1956). However as some studies indicate, the urban revolution appears to have happened first from about 5500 to 3500 BC., in Mesopotamia, which is now Iraq, southwestern Iran, and Eastern Syria (Redman, 2009). The people were called Sumerians, who built the world’s first cities in Mesopotamia. Similar study shows that, in the following millennia, similar changes occurred in the Indus Valley of South Asia, the Yellow River Valley of China, and eventually in the Valley of Mexico. Moreover, in the first period from 753–509 BC, the city of Rome developed from a village to a city (Mellor, 2009). Three spaces [Mesopotamia, Egypt (the Nile Valley), and the Indus Valley] those are sparsely populated, yet well watered and fertile, in a time before written history (Keita, 2009). Towns and cities have always been the driving force behind economic growth and the birthplace of innovations which generate major impetus for the development of technology, industry, society and culture (Meinert and Feix, 2005). Urban development in the ancient period reached its peak in the Roman Empire, particularly during the first through the 3rd centuries A.D (Hawley, 1964). Egypt and Indus are river valleys, where as Mesopotamia lies between two rivers [Euphrates and Tigris] forming a rich plain. Humans settle in these regions and domesticate plants and animals. The domestication made possible by these riverine territories and the success of domestication, farming and grazing, attract increasingly greater human and animal migration to these spaces. As these populations increase, so do their needs. These needs give rise to the social and political economic formations that characterize the ancient urban spaces and states of Mesopotamia and the Indus and Nile valleys (Keita, 2009). According to Mumford (1956), the emergence of the
  23. 23. city from the village was made possible by the improvements in plant cultivation and stockbreeding that came with Neolithic culture; in particular, the cultivation of the hard grains that could be produced in abundance and kept over from year to year without spoiling. Starting about 6,000 years ago in various parts of the world, large towns, and eventually cities, grew out of what were formerly agrarian village societies (Redman, 2009). In Africa, many cities were developed as colonial administrative or trading centers rather than industrial and commercial zones equipped to support large populations (Keiser et al., 2004). The area of the biggest cities, before the nineteenth century, could be measured in hundreds of acres; the areas of our new conurbations must now be measured in thousands of square miles (Mumford, 1956). Over the last 20 years many urban areas have experienced dramatic growth, as a result of rapid population growth and as the world’s economy have been transformed by a combination of rapid technological and political change (Choen, 2005). 2.5.1.1 Urbanization in Ethiopia Urbanization rates differ according to methodologies and data base utilized: the United Nations classifies Ethiopia as 14.9% urban, while the Central Statistical Agency of Ethiopia reports a 16% urbanization rate (Emily and Kedir 2009). In addition, the trend of urbanization in Ethiopia manifested different forms in different regimes. Urbanization has steadily been increasing in Ethiopia, with two periods of significantly rapid growth. First, in 1936-1941 during the Italian occupation of Mussolini’s fascist regime, and from 1967-1975 when the populations of urban centers tripled. The second period of growth was from 1967-1975 when rural populations migrated to urban centers seeking work and better living conditions (Ofcansky and Berry, 1991). Moreover, rural-to-urban migration had been largely responsible for the rapid expansion during
  24. 24. the 1967-75 periods, whereas natural population growth may have been mostly responsible for urban expansion during the 1975-84 periods (Http://countrystudies.us/ethiopia/44.htm Ethiopia). In the same study, in 1970 there were 171 towns with populations of 2,000 to 20,000; this total had grown to 229 by 1980.In the late 1980s, only about 11 percent of the population lived in urban areas of Italian occupation period at least 2,000 residents(http/www:countrystudies.com/ethiopia/urbanization.html). Solomon (1999), also explicitly stated that Ethiopia has been experiencing a rapid urban population growth over the last three decades, with significant differentials among individual urban areas and relatively uneven distribution among the regions. Moreover, Solomon and Rein fried (2003), estimated the rate of Ethiopian urbanization for the year 1960, 1975, 1987 and 1997 was 4%, 7%, 10%, and 12%, respectively. This implies that a trend of urbanization was increasing. Similarly, the three successive census results show that, the urban population of Ethiopia was 12.21% (1984), 13.69 % (1994) and 16.17 % (2007) of the total population of the country (CSA, 1984, 1994 and 2007). 2.5.2. Demographic trends of urbanization Urbanization has been the dominant demographic trend in the entire world, during the last half century (Ichimura, 2003). At mid-century, only two cities had populations over 10 million; namely London and New York. Today there are 14 cities with populations over 10 million, 10 of which are in developing countries (ILO, 1996). In 1950 there were only around 733 million people living in urban areas around the world and eighty-three cities in the world that could boast a million or more residents (Cohen, 2005). In the aggregate, cities in the developing world are growing by an estimated 160,000 persons per day (Gizewski and Dixon, 1995). Similarly, in
  25. 25. Africa, which used to be known as the continent of villages, the urban population is expanding at an average rate of almost 5% a year (Meinert and Feix, 2005). According to UN (2008), 74 per cent of the inhabitants of more developed regions lived in urban areas in 2007, whereas just 44 per cent of those in the less developed regions. Between 2005 and 2030, the world’s urban population is expected to grow at an average annual rate of 1.78 per cent, almost twice the growth rate of the world’s total population (UN Habitat, 2006). At the present time, some 3.2 billion people already live in towns and cities; this is expected to rise to almost five billion by 2030 (Sherbinin and Martine, 2007). The same study shows that on the contrary, the world’s rural population is expected to decrease by some 28 million between 2005 and 2030. Moreover, current trends predict the number of urban dwellers will keep rising, reaching almost five billion by 2030 (UN Habitat, 2006). Another study states that, the number of cities with a million or more inhabitants will rise to about 500 by 2030, with more than half of these huge conurbations in Asia (Meinert and Feix, 2005). This study indicates that, two of every three children born today in developing countries will grow up in an urban environment. Moreover, urbanization is expected to continue rising in both the more developed and the less developed regions so that, by 2050, urban dwellers will likely account for 86 per cent of the population in the more developed regions and for 67 per cent of that in the less developed regions (UN, 2008). 2.5.3. Views of urbanization The urbanization of the developing world’s population has been viewed in different ways by different observers. To some, it has been seen as a positive force in economic development, as economic activity shifts out of agriculture to more remunerative activities. By this view, new
  26. 26. economic opportunities in urban areas attract rural workers, who gain directly and there, may also be positive feedback effects in rural areas. It has been also stated that, urbanization has historically been associated with declining birth rates, which reduces population pressure on land and natural resources (Ichimura, 2003).Moreover; many cities in developing countries generate a large share of national income. For example, Mexico City, with 14% of Mexico’s population, accounts for 34% of its GNP. Sao Paulo, with just over 10% of Brazil’s population produces 40% of its GDP. Shanghai, with just 1.2% of China’s population, generates over 12% of China’s GNP. Bangkok has only 10% of Thailand’s total population but contributes nearly 40% of its GDP (Tibaijuka, 2008). To others, urbanization has been viewed in a somewhat less positive light, a largely unwelcome forbearer of new poverty problems. Advocates of this view often point to negative externalities of geographically concentrated poverty and irreversibility due to various costs of migration, which can mean that migrants to urban areas cannot easily return to their old standard of living in rural areas (Ravallion et al., 2007). The growth of large cities, particularly in developing countries, has been accompanied by an increase in urban poverty which tends to be concentrated in certain social groups and in particular locations (Ichimura, 2003). According to report of UN Habitat (2006), with one out of three city dwellers, nearly one billion people, currently living in slums which questions the whole notion of urban sustainability. Similarly, environmental sensitive sites such as steep hillsides, flood plains, dryland or the most polluted sites near solid waste dumps and next to open drains and sewers are often the only places where low-income groups can live without the fear of eviction (Ichimura, 2003). On the other hand, in the developing world, there has been a trend toward “informalization” of the urban economy, with increasing shares of incomes earned in unregulated employment (UN Habitat, 2006).
  27. 27. As some studies indicate that, paradoxically in a few developed countries the urban population will decrease. Despite the projected increases in the level of urbanization in developed nations, overall population decline in several countries will lead to a reduction in the number of urban dwellers (UN, 2008). However, in terms of contribution to economic output, cities drive national economies in the industrialized countries (Tibaijuka, 2008). In addition, in developed countries, cities generate over 80 per cent of national economic output (UN Habitat, 2006). 2.5.4 Causes and consequences of urban expansion 2.5.4.1 Causes of urban expansion The expansion of urban areas is determined by the interaction of three broad phenomena: the physical constraints of geography and environment; the demand for land by the households and firms who inhabit the city; and the policy constraints that govern land use and spatial interactions in the city (Xiaoqing and Jianlan, 2007). Before the introduction of automobiles, employment in urban areas was concentrated in the central core and houses were located on small lots often within walking distance to shopping, work and other amenities. By the mid 1900s, this trend began to change, largely due to the use of automobiles and the development of related infrastructure (Hofmann, 2001). Since then, urban dwellers started to live away from the central core and relied on their automobiles for many daily activities. This new urban form is dominated by single detached dwellings, which consume more land than other dwelling types such as apartments and townhouses (Hofmann, 2001). On another hand, people are likely to be earning an income and, in creating some wealth, contribute to rural economies by sending vital remittances to family members (Ellis and Harris, 2004). Even though in many African countries
  28. 28. the urban areas offer few jobs for the youth, they are often attracted there by the amenities of urban life (Tarver, 1996), consequently cause urban expansion. Another study shows that, urban expansion is caused by a number of different factors including rural–urban migration, natural population increase, and annexation (Cohen, 2005). Rural-urban migration is still a determining factor, and a potentially menacing one, in large areas of the developing world (ILO, 1996). According to Ward (1998), during the early decades of the Mexico City’s growth, when the demand from industry was high, migration flows accounted for around 60 per cent of the population expansion, with the remainder the result of natural increase. Another study that supports migration as a cause for urban expansion states that, there are strong rural-urban economically driven migrations with people seeking education and job opportunities outside subsistence farming (Keiser et al., 2004). In addition, the major reasons for increasing urban population are rural to urban migration, including international migration to a lesser extent, and the re-classification or expansion of existing city boundaries to include populations that were hitherto classified as being resident outside the city limits (Ichimura, 2003). High rates of overall population growth, together with significant rural–urban migration, have contributed to the rapid and unplanned expansion of low-income settlements on the outskirts of many large cities, which has occurred without a concomitant expansion of public services and facilities (Cohen, 2005). Natural population increase and migration are significant factors in the growth of cities in the developing countries (Tarver, 1996). In many countries, natural increase accounts for 60 per cent or more of urban population growth (UN, 2008). Similarly study also indicates that, about 60%
  29. 29. of urban population growth worldwide is caused by natural increase, with migration accounting for only 25% of growth in Africa and 34% in Latin America (Simms, 2008). 2.5.4.2 Consequences of urban expansion 2.5.4.2.1. The effects of urban expansion on farmlands The quantity of dependable agricultural land that is available for agriculture has been declining in recent decades, due to the consumption of agricultural land for urban uses and other nonagricultural uses (Hofmann, 2001). This rapid loss of agricultural lands is prevalent throughout the world (Mason, 2010) as a result of urban expansion. For instance, Canada’s cities and towns expanded steadily between 1971 and 1996, consuming more than12 thousand square kilometers in this 25-year period (Hofmann, 2001). This urban consumption of agricultural land is partly due to the growing urban population and it is partly due to higher land consumption by each new urban dwelling. According to study conducted in Puerto Rico, agricultural censuses show that rapid losses of agricultural lands have occurred since 1950, with the highest rate of change occurring between 1964 and 1974 (López, 2001) due to urban expansion. This loss of potential agricultural lands to irreversible nonagricultural uses reduces its capacity for the future. The surface area of built up districts in the cities more than doubled between 1990 and 2002,and about 6.36 million ha of farming had reverted to other forms of land use since the first land resource survey, leading to a net cultivated land loss of 4.11 million ha (http://www.mtt.fi/met/pdf/articles/met68_p313-327.pdf). It is also true in Ethiopia, the cities of Debre Zeit and Nazareth also illustrate the desolation created by urban expansion: on each side of the main highway, rows of ugly and disorganized buildings are rising up to replace hectare after hectare of fertile agricultural land (Sahlu, 2004).
  30. 30. As study conducted in North America the residential expansion allowed in the unconstrained development scenario increases the built-up area by 29%, agriculture decreases from 18.1% of the study area to 3.9 % (Guzy et al., 2008). As a consequence of the loss of large areas of cropland due to their conversion to urban uses, several countries have gone from being largely self-sufficient to net grain importers. In a period of 44 years 1950–1994 Japan lost more than half of its cropland which contributed to greater dependence on grain imports 70% in 1985, 25% in 1950 ( López, 2001). Even for the future many countries will face shortage of arable land to feed their people. For example, by comparing the 2030 urban envelope to the 1995 cultivated land, it was estimated that more than 37,000 acres of the existing cultivated land in the Tricounty area is at risk from potential urban conversion (Allen and Lu, 2000). According to study made in Egypt by Stover et al. (1986) ,actions that can be taken to offset the crop loss due to urban expansion include : replacing lost production through imports and increasing yields; with annual losses of 30,000 to 40,000 feddans/year (1 feddan = .42 hectares). 2.5.4.2.2 The effects of urban expansion on environment Expansion of human settlements and accompanying activities, especially the rapid urbanization occurring in the developing countries, play an important role in global land use and cover change, causing changes to ecological processes on a local and global scale (Zhang, 2008). Similarly another study also states that, urbanization does not have only local environmental impacts but also large so-called ‘ecological footprints’ beyond their immediate vicinity (Ichimura, 2003). Urban expansion continues to accelerate and herewith changes profoundly the Earth surface and results in many environmental consequences, such as affecting ecological sustainability in the rapid urbanized area of China (Tao et al., 2004). In addition, conversion of agricultural land and forest, as well as reclaiming of wetlands, for urban uses and infrastructure,
  31. 31. is associated with widespread removal of vegetation to support urban ecosystem and put additional pressure on nearby areas that may be even more ecologically sensitive (Ichimura,2003). By covering with buildings, roads and other impervious surfaces (Weng, 2001), urban areas generally have higher solar radiation absorption, and a greater thermal capacity and conductivity, so that heat is stored during the day and released by night. Therefore, urban areas tend to experience a relatively higher temperature compared with the surrounding rural areas. Poor periurban areas are also characterized by lack of sanitation and the consequent pollution of rivers and streams (Torres, 2007). Solid waste disposal systems are also generally lacking in low income country cities, which contribute to the spread of infectious diseases (Sherbinin and Martine, 2007). Moreover, high and rapid levels of urbanization have led to major problems such as traffic congestion resulting from poor infrastructure, contributing to environmental pollution and urban decay (Simms, 2008). 2.5.5. Urban expansion policies There is no consensus among scholars, policy makers or urban residents themselves about whether further development should be restricted or encouraged. According to Angel et al. (2005), there are three groups of policy areas that have a bearing on shaping urban expansion: 1. Policies that affect rural-urban (international) migration, both directly and indirectly; 2. Policies that affect or seek to affect the distribution of urban populations among cities; and 3. Policies that affect or seek to affect the process of urban development in individual cities and metropolitan areas
  32. 32. Reducing or even reversing the flow of rural-urban migrants has been the most common policy pursued by Governments wishing to change the spatial distribution of the population. Strategies used to retain the population in rural areas include: establishing internal migration controls, undertaking land redistribution, creating regional development zones and, more recently, promoting the economic diversification and competitiveness in rural areas through the mobilization of investment and the improvement of rural livelihoods (United Nations Population Division, 2008). In the same study, the second most common policy aims at reducing migrant flows to large cities. Among developed countries, the proportion of those with policies to reduce flows to large cities declined from 55 per cent in 1975 to 26 per cent in 1996 and has since rebounded to reach 39 percent in 2007. According to Ichimura (2003), a variety of options in terms of policy responses and tools to cope effectively with the urbanization transition has been proposed and discussed for several decades; these options may be categorized in the following four strategic steps. a. National planning to control urbanization to manageable levels b. Regional / Urban planning to guide urbanization to manageable situation c. Intra-urban management to cope with urbanization problems d. Participation, Partnership and Governance Although there are encouraging initiatives being taken by key players in various cities and countries, we do not yet have a consolidated approach to an inclusive urban policy and governance (Iwamoto, 2006). With regard to Ethiopia there are no published documents that dictate about urban expansion policies. However, as stated in unpublished document of BDIDP ,
  33. 33. currently urban development policy of Ethiopia is attempting to implement two extremely different strategies, the first is the “growth pole approach” and the second is the “agro-politian approach” (FUPI 2006). The former one encourages the growth and development of the largest cities while the latter one encourages the development of small market centers.
  34. 34. Chapter Three 3. Materials and methods 3.1 Description of the study area 3.1.1 Physical 3.1 .1.1 Location Bahir Dar, the capital of Amhara National Regional State, is located in the North Western part of Ethiopia (Figure, 1). Besides, it also serves as the administrative center for both West Gojam Zone and Bahir Dar Special Zone. It is located at 11038' N latitude and 37010' E longitude with an average elevation of 1801 m above mean sea level (BSZ Information Office, 2009; BCS; 2009). It is 565 kilometers away from Addis Ababa, the capital city of Ethiopia. It is accessible from Addis Ababa via both Motta and Bure high ways. The route through Motta is 80 kms less from the total distance covering 565 kms through Bure from Addis Ababa. The two high ways share more than 237 kms in common before the road to Motta departs west direction, after seven kms from Dejen (FUPI, 2006).
  35. 35. Bahir Dar town and surrounding kebelles Figure 1: Map of the study area Source: BoFED Amhara Region, 2009
  36. 36. 3.1.1.2 Topography Topographically, the town lies on a flat level of unnoticeable slope change except small raise in eastern and western peripheries. FUPI (2006) clearly stated that the altitude of Bahir Dar town ranges from 1,786 meter above sea level near Lake Tana shore to 1,886 meter above sea level at Bezawit hill with 100m altitude difference. The existing built up areas of the town almost lies within an elevation not more than 1820 meter above sea level (Gebre, 2009). Flat land topography ranging from 0 to 2 % slope gradient better describes the landscape of the town though some spots and/or pockets of land have a gradient that reach up to 20% slope (FUPI, 2006). There is also scattered, depressed terrain, which forms swamps here and there inside the built-up area of the town. With regard to drainage system of the Bahir Dar, Lake Tana and Abay River are found in its vicinity that determines the flow of water system in and around the city. The town has been affected by flood problems because of its extreme flatness and soil condition. During the rainy season shallow depressions usually changed into big ponds which create difficulties in traffic movement. 3.1.1.3 Climate Lying in Lake Tana Depression with an average elevation of about 1801 meter above sea level, Bahir Dar falls in ‘Woina Dega’ or Sub-Tropical Agro-Ecological Zone taking altitude as a criteria ranging from 1500-2300 meter above sea level. The climatic data mainly rainfall and temperature for the study area were collected based on data from Bahir Dar meteorological station which is located ,west of Bahir Dar Rural Road Authority, along the street of Ginbot 20 International Air Port.
  37. 37. 3.1.1.3.1 Temperature Temperature variation spatially and seasonally depends on latitude, altitude, humidity and wind regime (Solomon, 2005). In Ethiopia the mean maximum and minimum temperature vary significantly by season and area; the annual variation ranges from 2 to 6ºC (Sanchez, 1976 as cited in Solomon, 2005). Comparison of temperature data within the time frame considered in this study, i.e. between 1961 and 2008, shows that the average minimum and maximum temperatures to be 7.8ºC (in 1978) and 28.3ºC (in 2003), respectively. The highest mean monthly temperature was recorded for the month April (29.1ºC), while the lowest mean monthly temperature was recorded on month December (7 ºC) (Figure 2). Figure 2: Temperature data for 48 years (1961-2008)
  38. 38. 3.1.1.3.2 Rainfall The average annual rainfall of the area is 1445.5 mm. Four months (January, February, March and December) receive the least amount of rainfall. About 84% of the total rainfall occurs between June and September (Kiremt season), when cropping normally takes place. Fifteen percent of the total amount of rainfall occurs in the months of April, May, October and November; and less than 2% occurs in January, February, March and December. The highest and lowest rainfall occurred in the years 1973 and 1982 with annual rainfall of 2036.9 mm and 894.6 mm, respectively (Figure 3). Figure 3: Rainfall data for 48 years (1961-2008) 3.1.1.4 Soil The soils occurring in Bahir Dar area mainly represent residual fine soils (i.e. clays and silty clays) developed on basaltic bedrocks (FUPI, 2006). There are no coarser soils found either in out crops or in the deep-water well logs. Two main types of soils can be specifically identified in
  39. 39. the town and its vicinity. The first type represents red clay soils the color of which is the result of reduction of mafic minerals. Almost all the coast of the lake, starting from the (Blue Nile) bridge and on the way to Gondar is covered by red soil. The town itself is mostly covered on red soils. The soils northwest of the town, around airport and beyond, are basically reddish. 3.1.2 Demographic characteristics 3.1.2.1 Population size and trends in Bahir Dar town According to the Central Statistical Authority the total population of Bahir Dar was 54766, 96140 and 180094 in the three consecutive population and housing census results of 1984, 1994 and 2007, respectively. Moreover, results of population projection reveals that the total population for the year 1957 and 2009 are 2777 and 197449, respectively. As information obtained from Bureau of Finance and Economic Development, Amhara Region; Central Statistical Authority recommends exponential growth rate formula to project population growth in Ethiopia within inter censual periods. Hence, 1956 population with 10.5 annual growth rate used for 1957 population projection; 2007 population with 4.6 annual growth rate also used for population projection of 2009. Table 1: Population size and growth rate of Bahir Dar town 1957 Total population 2,777 - 1984 54,766 - 1994 96,140 5.8 2007 180,094 4.6 . 2009 197,449 - Year Annual growth rate (%) Source: CSA, 1984, 1994 and 2007; Projection for 1957 and 2009
  40. 40. 3.1.2.2 Ethnic composition Table 2: Major ethnic groups of Bahir Dar town Major ethnic group 1984 1994 Agew/Awingi 0.8 0.69 Amhara 90.0 93.2 Gurage 0.1 0.37 Oromo 0.9 0.71 Tigrawi 5.9 3.98 Others 2.1 1.05 Not stated 0.2 - Total (%) 100 100 Source: CSA, 1984 and 1994 The population of Bahir dar is composed of more than five ethnic and linguistic groups. According to the 1984 population and housing census, as shown in Table 3.4, Amhara constituted the largest ethnic group 90% of the total ethnic group followed by Tigrawi, 5.9%. The other ethnic groups altogether account for the remaining 4.1%. In the case of 1994 population and housing census also Amhara constituted the bulk of ethnic composition 93.2% followed by Tigrawi 3.98%. The other ethnic groups form 2.82 %. 3.1.3 Socio-economic characteristics 3.1.3.1 Economic activities in Bahir Dar town The major economic activities practiced in the town include trade, tourism and recreation, informal sector involvement, urban agriculture, etc. Due to the proximity of the town to Lake Tana with its historic churches and monasteries and scenic beauties, the tourism sector has
  41. 41. shown fast development by attracting foreign and national visitors. For example, in 2008/09, from 41155 visitors (both domestic and foreign) 57,167,918.00 birr was collected by the office (BSZ, Culture and Tourism Office, 2009). Such an increase in tourism has a forward linkage to stimulate local business activities which has a positive effect to the growth of the town. Table 3: Tourists visited Bahir Dar and amount of money collected in birr Year 1995/6 1996/7 1997/8 1998/9 1999/0 2000/1 2001/2 2002/3 2003/4 2004/5 2005/6 2006/7 2007/8 2008/9 Total Domestic tourists visited Bahir Dar 3858 12874 15712 11587 12854 16813 17608 17613 15555 14700 18960 23561 26765 28542 237002 Amount of money collected in birr 13,208.00 42,780.00 58,115.00 41,766.00 54,798.00 69,264.00 74,289.00 73,348.00 60,421.00 51,036.00 55,296.00 82,609.00 24,828,541.00 26,867,515.00 52,372,986.00 Foreign tourists visited Bahir Dar 2970 8014 8938 4167 5167 5308 7474 8864 7955 8675 8824 10083 11774 12613 110826 Amount of money collected in birr 51,990.00 140,710.00 158,013.00 68,455.00 94,345.00 93,680.00 136,844.00 152,865.00 137,470.00 142,705.00 149,178.00 168,025.00 26,216,971.00 30,300,403.00 58,011,654.00 Source: BSZ, Culture and Tourism Office (2009) According to Bahir Dar Special Zone Trade, Industry and Investment Promotion Office, the town has shown development in the area of commerce using the opportunities created by the free market economic system. Accordingly, a total of 1679 people in service, 1702 people in retailer, and 79 people in wholesale and the rest 850 people are engaged in different business sectors (BSZ, 2009). With regard to manufacturing industries, currently there are five factories by type namely Textile, agro processing, food oil, plastic shoe and leather; and seven in number.
  42. 42. Table 4: Manufacturing industries in Bahir Dar town Ownership of industry Government Private Total Types of industry Textile 1 1 2 Agro proc. 1 1 Oil 1 1 Plastic shoe Leather 1 1 2 2 Total 2 5 7 Source: BSZ Trade, Industry, Investment and Promotion Office (2009) 3.1.3.2 Physical and social infrastructures Bahir Dar is a town where road, water and air transport services are available. Till to the Italian occupation, it was almost inaccessible by all modes of modern transport. Today the town is linked with various corners of the country. The total length of roads was 269.43 kms of which about 39.2 km (14.55%) asphalt, 9.41 km (3.49%) Cobblestone, 78.39 (29.1%) km mud and the remaining 142.43 km (52.86%) was gravel (BSZ Information Office, 2009; BCS Project Coordination and Monitoring Team, 2009). This indicates that the bulk of the coverage is weathered road and it needs further construction of asphalt road for maintaining beauty of the town and to attract tourists. With regard to health facilities Bahir Dar has a hospital, health centers, regional laboratory, clinics, pharmacies, health posts, drug stores and vendors which are owned by the government and the private sector. The Felege-Hiowt hospital, which was established in 1955 in collaboration with Germany, currently gives services to the population of the town and the surrounding regions as a whole. The hospital has 413 staffs of which 223 are health professionals but 190 are administrative workers. The hospital is equipped with 174 beds, 22 doctors, 13 specialists ,104 nurses, 3 pharmacists, 6 radiologists, 18 laboratory technicians, 15 druggists, and
  43. 43. 6 health officers. The ratio of doctor to patient for the hospital is about 1:30. Currently it is serving for about 300-500 patients per day (Felege Hiowt Hospital, 2009). The town has all level of educational institutions, that is, kindergarten (31), elementary (50), general secondary (11), preparatory (5), collage (10), TVET (1) and one higher institution, Bahir Dar university, which offers first and second degree in different faculties and departments for students coming from the region and the country as a whole (BSZ, Education Office, 2009). The town receives hydroelectric power generated from the Tis-Isat power station at Blue Nile falls, located some 30 kilometers south east of Bahir Dar and as a result the town is getting 24 hours of electric power supply service. The sources of water supply for the town are Infranze stream which is situated behind the Bahir Dar Airport, and ground water taped. Currently there are five water tankers in different parts of the town. According to Planning and Programming Office of Bahir Dar City Service (2009), about 89.67 % of total population of the town has access of tap water. The major problem of water in the town is not the shortage of drinking water but people use drinking water for construction and investment purpose. Currently Bahir dar town has endowed with several numbers of hotels and shops, eleven banks [five governments and six private], six insurances [one government and five private], one credit and saving union, fourteen printing presses [one government and thirteen private]. 3.1.4 Historical development of Bahir Dar town The historical foundation of Bahir Dar City is associated with the establishment of Kidane Miheret church in the present site of St. Giorgis church in the 14th century (FUPI, BWUD and BMA, 2006). The naming of the city, Bahir Dar, has a connection with its proximity to the two
  44. 44. water bodies of the surrounding (Lake Tana and River Abay). It means periphery of a water body, which may be a periphery to one of them or both of them that is a lake or a river. The availability of these two water bodies and the foundation of Kidane Miheret Church in the area are the major possible reasons for foundation of the town. Beginning from that time as a rural village on wards it has developed in to one of the current largest city of the country. Its fast development and transformation in to a modern township was made during the Italian occupation period of 1928-1933 since it was used as a major military base for their expeditions in the region (http://campus.iss.nl/~group6/501607984? was Read=1). They turned it into military center and established a secular administration system. They had also changed the land holding system forcefully and different land use systems were implemented to introduce residential and commercial places. Moreover, they introduced modern means of transport, such as plane, motor boat and motor car with other towns and settlements in Gojam and Begemidir. As indicated in Planning and Programming Office of Bahir Dar City Service document right after Italians evacuation subsequently feudal nobles were very much eager and had posed their intention at Bahir Dar. Consequently, it had been selected as a wereda capital by a man who was named as Zewdu Zemedagegnhu in 1935 E.C. Likewise, in 1948 E.C the then governor of Gojam Region, Aemiroselassie Abebe, had selected Bahir Dar as Awuraja capital (Bahir Dar City Service Planning and Programming Office,2009). The beginning of Blue Nile Basin study in the 1950’s by the government of Ethiopia in collaboration with the United States of America contributed paramount role to the development of Bahir Dar. The aim of the study was to identify the irrigation and hydroelectric potential of the Blue Nile and Lake Tana water resources for the north western part of Ethiopia. Besides, the
  45. 45. construction of Abay River Bridge and the opening of all weather roads that connected Bahir Dar with important towns like Addis Ababa, Gonder and Asmera accompanied by other public transport systems like plane and motor boat facilitated the easy flow of goods, information and people to and from Bahir Dar. According to (FUPI, BWUD and BMA, 2006) ,other government initiatives that could be considered as framework for the rapid growth of the town were the installation of water pipe line in 1951 and the establishment of Felege Hiwot Hospital in 1955 by the help of Germany, the opening up of Polytechnic Institute with the assistance of Soviet Union 1955 , the construction of hydro electric power in Tis Abay in 1956 by Yugoslavian Government and the establishment of Bahir Dar textile factory in 1954, the construction of the Commercial Bank of Ethiopia in 1958 were the major reasons for the development of Bahir Dar town . 3.2 Materials The following materials have been used for the research: Quick Bird image of 2004 Bahir Dar town; Aerial Photo with scale 1:50,000 for 1957 and 1984 and 1:10,000 for 1994 from EMA; GPS for ground truth delineation of 2009 data and mapping; ERDAS Imagine 9.1 for land use classification and interpretation; Arc view 3.2a for displaying and subsequent processing and enhancement of image; Arc GIS 9.2 to display and processing of data; and SAS (JMP5) to calculate statistical data. 3.3 Data acquisition and methods of analysis The study has employed a wide range of data sources. Consequently, data for the study included are primary and secondary sources in nature. Primary data have been collected through
  46. 46. questionnaire, observation, and interviews. Secondary data have been collected from census results, documents, published and unpublished books, and internet web sites which are related to the problem under study. Besides to these sources remotely sensed data, aerial photographs, with GIS techniques have been employed. 3.3.1 Land use/ land cover change study 3.3.1.1 Data acquisition and classification Four pieces of black and white aerial photographs for each year [1957 and 1984] with scale of 1:50,000 and; for the year 1994 twenty one pieces of black and white aerial photographs with scale of 1:10,000 were obtained from the Ethiopian Mapping Authority (EMA) to generate the land cover and land use change for the study area. GPS reading was also taken to delineate the current, 2009 existing built up area of the town. Aerial photographs which have different scales were adjusted to similar scales by adjusting resolution or pixel size by resampling method during pre-processing of aerial photographs. Moreover, scales for maps obtained from aerial photographs and GPS delineation had been corrected to similar scales. To analyze the aerial photographs, each piece was first scanned independently (Figure, 4). The digital aerial photographs of the 1957, 1984 and 1994 were also projected [UTM projection, Clarke 1880 spheroid, Adindan (datum) in Zone 37 N]. The rectification and registration process were done by using ERDAS IMAGINE 9.1 software. The type of rectification was image-toaerial photo registration. For registration GCPs were selected from geometrically corrected Quick Bird image of 2004 Bahir Dar Town and image to be rectified (aerial photo). Ground control points used were churches, canal that stretches from Debanky hill to Bahir Dar university main campus, Islands in Abay River and some other physical features like large trees. Moreover,
  47. 47. the accuracy of rectification was cheeked by using ground truth; and considering residual errors at the time of rectification using GCPs. After rectification, geo-referencing in to a map coordinate system was done using the ERDAS Imagine 9.1. Moreover after, mosaicking the aerial photographs together; subsets for each study year were clipped out. Land use and land cover categories from the series of aerial photos were obtained from systematic interpretations by manual digitization and visual interpretation depending on characteristics of aerial photos (tone, texture, shape, pattern, aspect and etc). Finally, the result of interpretation of aerial photographs was checked by ground truth like physical features and GPS reading points. 3.3.1.2 Method of data analysis From visual and digital interpretations of the aerial photos, different land use and land cover categories were distinguished. Since emphasis was mainly given for urban expansion and its impact on surrounding rural communities of Bahir Dar town the land use and land cover classes analyzed for changes were: built-up, forestland, water bodies and others. Built-up: all types of man-made surfaces including residential, commercial, industrial, transportation, etc Forestland: includes dense vegetation cover and tree planting in the town Water bodies: physical features including lake ,river, pond and marshland Others: greening area, vacant areas, wetlands, grazing land, cultivated land and etc. Moreover, areas for land uses were calculated in hectares and subsequently the results were compared for each year 1957, 1984 and 1994. However, for the year 2009 to know the area, the researcher used GPS technique. The population size for the year 1984 and 1994 was obtained
  48. 48. from population and housing census results, and for the year 1957 and 2009 population size was generated by projection. Based on area and population data, land consumption rate and adsorption coefficient were calculated for the town and the results were analyzed accordingly. The Land Consumption Rate and Absorption Coefficient formula are given below as follows: Land consumption rate is a measure of compactness, which indicates a progressive spatial expansion of a city. L.C.R = A/p ……………………………………….................................. Equation 3.1 Where; A = aerial extent of the city in hectares P = population Land absorption coefficient is a measure of change in consumption of new urban land by each unit increase in urban population. L.A.C = (A2 – A1/ P2 – P1) …………………………………………………. Equation 3.2 Where; A1 and A2 are the aerial extents (in hectares) for the early and later years, and P1 and P2 are population figure for the early and later years, respectively (Yeates and Garner, 1976) Superimposition of maps using GIS techniques were employed to show physical expansion trends of the town for the year 1957, 1984, 1994 and 2009. The simple linear regression model was also used to predict the future agricultural land loss due to urban expansion by considering population growth as a major factor. Moreover, descriptive statistics is used to analyze land use land cover change data. Tables, maps, percentiles and ratios were used to analyze the data.
  49. 49. Sources of Data Aerial photographs in 1957, 1984 and1994 Delineation of the town for the year 2009 Scanning aerial photos Population size for years: • • • • 1957 1984 1994 2009 • • • • Projection and georeferencing Focused group discussion Interview from urban dwellers, Farmers affected and non affected by urban expansion, Officials from Bahir Dar City Service Creating subset and digitizing Land use and land cover map of 1957, 1984 and 1994 • Land use land cover change analysis • Socio economic and environmental data analysis Figure 4: Flow chart that shows procedures followed during data collection and analysis
  50. 50. 3.3.2 Socio-economic and environmental study 3.3.2.1 Data acquisition 3.3.2.1.1 Interviewing key –informants in the town Urban dwellers for the year 1957, 1984 and 1994 were interviewed after delineating aerial photographs using GIS techniques. These people were interviewed about historical development of the town, socio-economic and environmental issues as well as factors contributed for urban expansion. Urban dwellers were also interviewed about the year 2009, from different occupation [government employee, people who are engaged in business, unemployed urban dwellers]. Four officials were also interviewed in Bahir Dar City Service [land provision and administration head, two officials that work in compensation study department and one expert]. 3.3.2.1.2 Focus group discussions Moreover, to investigate the impact of urban expansion on surrounding rural communities as well as to confirm the data gathered with questionnaire in four rural areas where major urban expansion is going on, the study involved one FGDs session with a total of six farmer household heads [three men and three women]. So as, to select members for FGDs, the following criteria have been employed during focused group discussions: farmers who are elders of the community; farmers who are willing to provide information; farmers who lived there for at least the last 20-30 years continuously; and farmers who are considered as knowledgeable enough about urban expansion and its impact on the surrounding rural community
  51. 51. 3.3.2.1.3 Questionnaire To estimate the total population of farmer households who have been affected by urban expansion, the researcher has consulted officials from Bahir Dar City Service Office. The list and site of households who have been affected by urban expansion were found from compensation list in Bahir Dar City Service of Land Provision and Administration office. To know the number of population size, it was challenging. The major problems were disorganized documentation of compensation list of farmers, difficulty of identifying farmers who have been paid compensation or not, repeation of farmers name in the list and absence of willingness to give the file. Finally, 2878 household heads were listed for the purpose of land compensation whose agricultural lands, totally or partially had been affected due to urban expansion until October 2009. Table 5: Distribution of sample farmer households Rural Kebele Total number of Site Households a Addisalem Woramit 1441 1994 Woreb Zenzelema Total 2353 2598 8,386 Motta outlet Merawi outlet Air port Abaymado Total Dispossessed Sample farmers b dispossessed farmers (10%) 212 21 1193 119 72 1401 2,878 8 140 288.0 Source: a- Bahir Dar city service office documentation planning and program office b- Compensation list from Bahir Dar city service land provision office After identifying the population, the procedures were selecting four rural kebeles where major urban expansion is going on. From each Kebele, representative sample (10%) households were chosen based on its population size proportionally. Accordingly, 288 farmer household heads were chosen for questionnaire administration and to collect relevant information regarding up on
  52. 52. urban expansion and its impact on surrounding rural communities. The final analysis, however, is done on the basis of 271 sample farmer household heads because seventeen sample respondents [six from Addisalem and 11 from Woramit] were not available although repeated visits were made during data collection. Respondents background indicates that, by sex 217 (80.1%) and 54 (19.95%) are male and female, respectively. Educational status shows that 61.6% are illiterate, while 27.3% can read and write, the remaining 11.1% are primary and above. Regarding the age, majority of respondents 53.9% fall in 15-45 years. Moreover, 38.7% of households’ age is within 46-65 years, but 7.4% of samples’ age fall 65 years and above. In addition, 30 farmer households in both sexes who are not affected by urban expansion were interviewed randomly in surrounding rural communities [Zenzelema, Woramit, Addisalem and Woreb]. This was done mainly to check whether urban expansion has impact on these communities or not and; to assess their attitude on urban expansion. 3.3.2.1.3.1 Data gathering procedures from dispossessed farmer households Prior to the actual data gathering preliminary survey in the study sites was conducted in the respective kebeles. Moreover, since the first draft of the questionnaire was prepared in English, it was translated in to Amharic version to avoid misunderstanding of the questionnaire by the enumerators. After the questionnaire has been translated in to the local language of the respondents, eight affected farmer household heads have been randomly selected from Zenzelema and Woramit rural Kebeles and a pre-test of the questionnaire was administered prior to formal data collection. The aim of pre-test was to check whether there is misunderstanding or gap between enumerators and farmer households to be interviewed. For data collection, four enumerators who have been working as DA ‘executive’ in their respective kebeles were
  53. 53. assigned. Enumerators were chosen from the area of the sample farmer households and thus, assigned to their respective sites as the sample households knew and trusted them to give information than a strange face. Above all, before the actual field work, enumerators have been given a day training on questionnaire, how to approach and ask respondents, and handle the challenges that may come across during the field work. Each question was explained and clarified in detail to them with adequate explanation and they were given chances for suggestions and remark that might think helpful to look up the questionnaire. Having done all these preconditions, official supporting letters for enumerators were prepared from Bahir Dar mayor office to make sure that they are legal enumerators on the time of emergence request during enumeration. Besides, the enumerators had the lists of the names of sample farmer households for which the data is to be collected. Finally, the data was collected between 2nd of December to 23rd of December, 2009. 3.3.2.1.3.2 Variables used for questionnaire Socio-economic data from surrounding rural communities were collected based on the following variables: back ground of respondents, compensation, factors that determine compensation, household property, services obtained by farmers during urban expansion and others. 3.3.2.2 Methods of data analysis The socio-economic and environmental data obtained from the survey were analyzed using Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS version 16, 2007). To analyze the data, the researcher employed descriptive statistics. Tables, percentiles and frequency distribution were also used to organize, present and analyze the data. Moreover, Pearson correlation was used to analyze data pertaining to relationship between households’ income and properties.
  54. 54. Chapter Four 4. Results and discussion 4.1 The aerial extent and direction of urban expansion According to interview made with 70 years old person ( Ato Dege) regarding expansion trends of Bahir Dar town, he replied that in 1945 Bahir Dar town became capital of Woreda and, different offices were built and the town has got attention, this caused gradual expansion. Moreover, in 1946 for the first time municipality was established for Bahir Dar town. A year later in 1947, construction of roads, residential, commercial houses and some institutions began. Similarly in 1947 land provision was also commenced. The cost for 25 m x 25 m [625m2/.063ha] land was 2.50 Ethiopian Birr. In 1956, the town developed into Awraja including woredas like [Yilma Na Densa, Mecha and Achefere] and at this time the street from Bahir Dar to Tis Abay was opened for tourists and local people. In 1961 master plan was prepared by eight Ethiopian and eight foreign engineers by governor of the town, Fetawrari Habtemariam. According to Ato Dege, at this time the town was planned to be extended on Gonder outlet to Abune Hara, to West Woramit Gebrieal, and to South Gordema Gebrieal. The total area of Bahir Dar town in 1957 was 279.02 ha, but in the year 1984 its area reached to 1159.64 ha (Table, 6). This shows that between 1957 and 1984 there was net 880.62 ha of additional urban land. And, the average annual rate of expansion per year was 11.69 ha. The major expansion sites were East [Gondor outlet], West [Airport and Hospital Street] and South [Merawi and Mota outlet], but not in North direction due to Lake Tana. In this period the bulk of expansion was took place in Gonder outlet (Figure, 6), the reason might be due to presence of
  55. 55. Abay River for easy accessibility of water. Moreover, in the three directions urban expansion was mainly taken place, in fertile land which is suitable for various crops. Between the year 1984 and 1994 the change of urban land was 1617.56 ha. Accordingly, average annual rate of expansion for the town was 13.95 ha per year. In this time the major rate of urban expansion was taken place than other time series. The main reason is that in 1992 Bahir Dar town became the capital of Amhara Regional State. Since then, many development activities like, offices, residential houses, infrastructure, institutions were constructed. Besides, different NGOs were also commenced their office in the town. This was also confirmed by interview made with elderly people of Bahir Dar town and during FGD with people who are living in the surrounding rural communities of Bahir Dar town. : Area and average annual expansion rate of Bahir Dar town from 1957 to 2009 Year Area (ha) Absolute change of urban expansion (ha) Average annual rate of urban expansion (ha/year) 1957 279.02 - - 1984 1159.64 880.62 11.69 1994 2777.2 1617.56 13.95 2009 4829.87 2052.67 4.93 Source: Extracted from aerial photo of Bahir [1957, 1984, 1994], GPS reading, 2009
  56. 56. Figure 5: Physical expansion trends of Bahir Dar town (1957-2009) Urban expansion change between the year 1994 and 2009 was 2052.67 ha. Moreover, the average annual rate of change was 4.93 ha per year. Between, these periods urban expansion was lower than others, the possible reason might be intensification of urban land use rather than horizontal expansion. The major expansion sites were similar like other previous time series. Moreover, in this period major modification was also taken place towards to Lake Tana. According to elderly people in the town and personal observation during the study, near Lake
  57. 57. Tana different lodges, restaurants, hotels and coffee houses were established and being constructing due to investment opportunities. This can be also explicitly seen on Figure 6. Figure 6: Physical expansion trends of Bahir Dar town/Superimposed/ [1957-2009] 4.2 Land use/ land cover change analysis Land use land cover change had been taken place in Bahir Dar town. The two forms of urban expansion that occurred were: horizontal urban expansion and intensification of urban land use. Horizontal expansion shows that the town expanded from time to time horizontally and engulfed agricultural lands from surrounding rural communities of Bahir Dar town. However, intensification shows internal land use conversion, mainly conversion of built up areas from other land use categories.
  58. 58. 4.2.1 Land use /land cover change as result of horizontal expansion The following four land use land cover categories: built-up, forestland, water bodies and others were identified for the year 1957, 1984 and 1994 (Table, 7). The land cover analysis for 1957 from aerial photos (Figure, 7) showed that majority of the study area was under other categories which include [greening area, vacant areas waiting for construction, wetlands, grazing land, cultivated land and etc..] accounting for 171.53 ha (61.47%), while built-up, water bodies and forestland accounted for 79.5 ha (28.49%), 21.99 ha (7.88%) and 6.02 ha (2.16%), respectively. For the year 1984 land cover analysis from aerial photo (Figure, 8) depicts that the bulk of land cover was under built up i.e. 625.87 ha (53.97%), whereas other categories, water bodies and forestland covered 405.77 ha (34.99%), 113.13 ha (9.76 %) and 14.87 ha (1.28%), respectively. Moreover, in the year 1994 as indicated on aerial photo analysis (Figure, 9) other land cover categories contained 1519.42 ha (54.71), while built-up, water bodies and forestland accounted for 847.9 ha (30.53%), 311.39 ha (11.21%), and 98.49 ha (3.55%), respectively. 4.2.1.1 Land use /land cover change from 1957 -1984 Land covers between 1957 and 1984 on Table 7, shows that there was a major change of built up i.e. 546.37 ha (62.05%). This indicates that, in this period different infrastructures were constructed in Bahir Dar town. This is also confirmed by the interview of elderly who lived in Bahir Dar for the last 50 years. At the same time the amount of forest land has also increased by 8.85 ha (1%) the reason is that, annexation of forest lands mainly around Abay River due to expansion of the town. Moreover, the magnitude of water bodies also increased by 91.14 ha (10.35%) due to expansion of the town towards to Abay River. The average annual rate of expansion depicts that, built up area increased by 25.45 ha per year for 27 years. On the other
  59. 59. hand, forest land and water bodies also increased by 5.44 and 15.35 ha per year, respectively. This is mainly due to expansion of the town towards to Abay River and inclusion of water bodies and forestland. On the other hand, the rate of others’ land cover category also increased by 5.06 ha per year. 4.2.1.2 Land use /land cover change from 1984 -1994 The land cover changes for Bahir Dar town between 1984 and 1994 shows that (Table, 7), the bulk of change comprises other land use categories 1113.65 ha (68.85%) followed by built up 222.03 ha (13.73%). Water bodies and forestland were also increased by 198.26 ha (12.26%) and 83.62 ha (5.17%), respectively. The average annual rate of land cover change has also increased. Accordingly, the annual rate of change of built up increased by 3.55 ha per year while forestland and water bodies increased by 56.23 % and 17.52 ha per annum, respectively. Forestland increment is mainly due to expansion of the town towards to Abay River and inclusion of Bezawit hill which is forestland. Moreover, afforestation programs were also undertaken. The rate of change for others land cover category also increased by 27.45 ha per for the town. 4.2.1.3 Land use /land cover change from 1957 -1994 Within 37 years [1957-1994] there was a great change of land cover for the town (Table, 7). The built up area of the town increased by 768.4 ha (30.76%), while water bodies increased by 289.4 ha (11.58%). Moreover, forestland for the town also increased by 92.47 ha (3.7%). However, more than half of the change accounted for other land use categories. Average annual rate of change depicts that built up areas increased by 26.12 ha per year, forestland by 41.51 ha per year,
  60. 60. and water bodies by 35.57 ha per year. The possible factor that contributed for urban expansion may be population growth and related factors like establishment of institutions, service sectors, residential and recreational areas, and others. Figure 7: Land use of Bahir Dar town, 1957
  61. 61. Figure 8: Land use of Bahir Dar town, 1984 Figure 9: Land use of Bahir Dar town, 1994
  62. 62. % 1984 6.02 21.99 171.53 279.04 Forest land Water bodies Others Total area(ha) 100 61.47 7.88 2.16 28.49 1159.64 405.77 113.13 14.87 625.87 ha 79.50 ha 1957 Built up Categories Land use Land cover 100 34.99 9.76 1.28 53.97 % 2777.20 1519.42 311.39 98.49 847.90 ha 1994 100 54.71 11.21 3.55 30.53 % 880.6 234.24 91.14 8.85 546.37 ha 100 26.6 10.35 1 62.05 % 1957-1984 Land cover change 1617.56 1113.65 198.26 83.62 222.03 ha 1984-1994 : Land use cover distribution and annual rate of change from 1957 to 1994 100 68.85 12.26 5.17 13.73 % 2498.16 1347.89 289.4 92.47 768.4 ha 1957-1994 100 53.96 11.58 3.7 30.76 % 1984-1994 5.44 17.52 56.23 25.45 27.45 15.35 3.55 1957-1984 5.06 21.24 35.57 41.51 26.12 1957-1994 Average annual expansion rate (ha/year)
  63. 63. 4.2.2 Land use/ land cover change as a result of intensification 4.2.2.1 Land use/ land cover intensification from 1957 to 1994 Land use land cover intensification had been taken place in Bahir Dar town since 1957 to 1994. Based on 1957 boundary, clipping was done for 1984 and 1994 land use to compare intensification of land use/ land cover. However, it was found to be difficult to calculate conversion matrices for land use land cover of Bahir dar town since overlay analysis had not been employed for aerial photographs. According to aerial photo interpretation of 1957 the area of built up was 79.5 ha (28.49%). The rest land uses; forestland, water bodies and other land use categories were 6.02 ha (2.16%), 21.99 ha (7.88%) and 171.53 ha (61.47%), respectively (Table 8). For the same area of the town like 1957, in the year 1984 built up area was 229.67 ha (82.31%), which is the bulk of land cover (Figure, 10). In addition, forestland, water bodies and others’ land use category covered 3.7 ha (1.33%), 20.03 ha (7.18%), and 25.64 ha (9.19%), respectively. Land cover for the year 1994 depicts that, built up area contained 234.56 ha (84.06%). Forestland, water bodies and other land use categories also covered 4.79 ha (1.72%), 19.05 ha (6.83%) and 20.64 ha (7.4%), respectively (Table 8). 1. Land use/ land cover change due to intensification from 1957 -1984 Land cover for Bahir Dar town between 1957 and 1984 (Table, 8) shows that there was significant conversion of land cover from one type to another; for example, built up area increased by 150.17 ha. The average annual rate of increment illustrates that, built up area increased by seven ha per year. This increment was due to conversion of land cover particularly from other land use categories to built-up areas. On the contrary, other land use categories decreased by 145.89 ha, this shows that the average annual rate of decrement for this land use
  64. 64. was 3.15 ha per year. Moreover, forestland decreased by 2.32 ha (38.54%). Water bodies also decreased by 1.96 ha (8.91%), the reason might be shrinking of water bodies and use of land for built up areas. 2. Land use/ land cover change due to intensification from 1984-1994 The land cover change reveals that, built up area increased but its change was not a significant. Built up area increased by 4.89 ha (2.13%) in 10 years. This does not mean that at this time urban expansion was insignificant rather there was also horizontal urban expansion (Table, 7). Likewise, forestland increased by 1.09 ha (29.46%). This might be due to practices of different tree planting activities in the town by communities as well as households. On the other hand, water bodies decreased by 0.98 ha (4.89%) for the town. Moreover, the land cover of other land use category decreased by seven ha (19.5%) mainly as result of increment of built up areas. 3. Land use/ land cover change due to intensification from 1957-1994 Based on 1957 boundary clipping for 1994 boundary was done (Figure, 10). The results were compared to evaluate whether intensification of land use was taken place or not. Consequently, the land cover change depicts that built up area increased by 155.06 ha (195%) in 37 years. This change of increment of land cover for the town was almost twice higher than the 1957 land cover. The average annual rate of increment was 5.27 ha per year. On the other hand, other land cover category decreased by 150.89 ha. This shows that about seven times its land cover decreased from 1957 to 1994 for the town, this was mainly as result of expansion of built up areas in the town. Moreover, land cover of forestland and water bodies decreased by 20.43% and 13.37%, respectively in 37 years.
  65. 65. Figure 10: Land use of Bahir Dar town in 1957, [1984 and 1994] clipped by 1957 boundary
  66. 66. 4.2.2.2 Land use/ land cover intensification from 1984 to 1994 Land cover of 1984 shows that built up area was 625.87 ha (53.97%). Others land use category covered 405.77 ha (34.99%). Moreover, water bodies and forestland contained 113.13 ha (9.76%) and 14.87 ha (1.28%), respectively. Based on 1994 land cover of the town, it illustrates that built up area covered 647.42 ha (55.83%) while others land cover contained 375.85 ha (32.41%). The land covers of water bodies and forestland were 107.43 ha (9.26%) and 28.94 ha (2.5%). Land cover change analysis of Bahir Dar town for 10 years describes that built up area increased by 21.55 ha (3.44%). The intensification of land cover of built up area was small between 1984 and 1994 (Table, 8). It does not mean that the expansion of the town was low but at this time there was also high horizontal expansion of the town. Moreover, land cover of forestland increased by 14.07 ha (94.62%). This signifies that there might be tree planting programs in the town either individually or by community in the town. However, water bodies land cover decreased by 5.7 ha (5.04%). This is due to shrinking of Lake Tana and replacement of the land use by built up and urban agriculture such as fruits and vegetables. Moreover, other land cover categories decreased by 29.92 ha (7.37%). This was principally due to conversion of land cover in to build up areas in the town (Figure, 11).
  67. 67. Figure 11: Land use of Bahir Dar town in 1984 and 1994, clipped by 1984 boundary

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