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The purpose of our forecasting projects at GemSeek is to provide a forward looking picture of how the market size of different markets (a.k.a.modalities) would develop in the future. The model provides three different techniques each bringing a choice in finding more accurate forecasts with regards to various factors, local market specifics, data distribution etc. In summary, these are:
Linear Trend Regression (a.k.a Time extrapolation) captures the linear trend of the Time Series Data on Imports per Segment & Total Market
Exponential Smoothing uses the linear trend and fluctuations of time of the Time Series Data on Imports and applies different weights to actual values so the data looks more smoothed. Also, uses smoothed values to extrapolate future levels
Multi Regression binds the actual values of Imports to a set of external predictors. Uses forecasted data on selected macroeconomic indicators to estimate future values of the market size.