Waiting for Exascale


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By current estimates, we’re about a decade away from having exascale computing capability. That’s a pretty long time – especially in our world of HPC. What will the world be like in 2022? What form will exascale computing take when it’s real? These are difficult questions to answer. Never before has the HPC community focused so intensely on a machine so far beyond its grasp. Nevertheless, stalwart cadres around the globe are drafting strategies, plans, and roadmaps to get from here to exascale. So, what about the rest of us? Are there useful things we could do while waiting - or instead of waiting - for exascale? Perhaps there are. In this talk we’ll take a look at a few possibilities, including:
• Education
• eScience
• Big Data
• Broad HPC Deployment
• Computing in Industry
• Public Engagement
• Infrastructure Development and Build Out
• Success Metrics
Exascale computing may be a decade away, but there’s a lot to accomplish to be ready to exploit it. We’ll explore a few options here. We make no claim that these constitute the right agenda for the coming decade – nor do we suggest that we’ve given an exhaustive to-do list. Our intention is rather to open the conversation about what we should do while “waiting” for exascale.

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Waiting for Exascale

  1. 1. Waiting for Exascale University of Washington 13 February 2013 Gary M. Johnson Computational Science Solutions GMJ@ComputationalScienceSolutions.com
  2. 2. OutlineWe’ve got a decade to wait for exascale computing capability.  What should we do in the meanwhile? • Education • eScience • Big Data Let’s explore a few  • Effective Use of Petascale Computing possibilities: • Broad HPC Deployment • Computing in Industry • Marginalization Risk • Public Engagement • Infrastructure Refresh • Success MetricsComputational Science Solutions 2
  3. 3. Education African kids learn to read, hack Android on OLPC fondleslab Why your next sysadmin could be Ethiopian By Iain Thomson in San Francisco 1 November 2012 22:52 GMT One Laptop Per Child founder Nicholas Negroponte has said children are not only teaching themselves to read without teachers by using fondleslabs he provided, but they are learning how to hack Android as well. In an experiment, the OLPC dropped off Motorola Xoom tablets with solar chargers in two Ethiopian villages and trained the local adult population how to charge them up. Children were also given sealed boxes containing fondleslabs that were preloaded with educational software and a memory card that tracks how the kids got on with the new technology. "I thought the kids would play with the boxes. Within four minutes, one kid not only opened the box, found the on-off switch ... powered it up," Negroponte told MIT Review. "Within five days, they were using 47 apps per child, per day. Within two weeks, they were singing ABC songs in the village, and within five months, they had hacked Android.“ But what shocked the OLPC team was just how good the kids proved at understanding and changing the tablets operating system. "The kids had completely customized the desktop - so every kids tablet looked different. We had installed software to prevent them from doing that," said Ed McNierney, OLPCs CTO. "And the fact they worked around it was clearly the kind of creativity, the kind of inquiry, the kind of discovery that we think is essential to learning.“ http://one.laptop.org/ It wasnt just the desktop that the children learned to subvert. The cameras on the tablet had been disabled by an OLPC worker, but the children managed to get around that and turn them back on again with no instruction. http://www.theregister.co.uk/2012/11/01/kids_learn_hacking_android/Computational Science Solutions 3
  4. 4. Education • Education is key – We  have  no  real  idea  about  what  skills  will  be  needed  a  decade  from  now – Education  is  crucial  to  future  US  competitiveness  ‐ and  to  our  well  being  as  a  society – If  we  learn  how  to  learn,  then  we  can  adapt  to  whatever  the  future  may  hold • Dont just port the box, think outside it – New  applications  areas – Fundamental  reformulations  of  problems – New  math  and  algorithms  ‐ not  just  bigger  hammers • New modes of education – The  exascalers of  tomorrow  are  now  in  high  school – MOOCs • Coursera • Udacity • edX – An  exaMOOC...? – The  OLPC  model…? • Rewards & Recognition – High‐prestige  (open)  publication  venues – Prizes  for  courseware – New  attitudes  about  promotion  and  tenure – New  views  about  education  altogetherComputational Science Solutions 4
  5. 5. eScience Jim Gray Michael Nielsen 2009 2011 http://research.microsoft.com/en-us/collaboration/fourthparadigm/ http://michaelnielsen.org/blog/michael-a-nielsen/Computational Science Solutions 5
  6. 6. eScience• All of science is becoming eScience – Observational,  experimental  and  computational  facilities  and  science  databases  are  geographically  dispersed – Its a connected  world – Science is moving from  being a spectator sport to one  where  anyone with "cognitive  surplus"  can  play• Shift from Facility‐Centric to Scientist‐Centric computing model – Scientists  should  determine  what  happens  – not  facility  operators• Create an open marketplace for computing cycles and services – Computing  “facilities”  have  very  different  character  from  observational  and  experimental  ones  (see Jailbreaking HPC)• Adopt the "app" mentality – Is there an (exascale) app for that?Computational Science Solutions 6
  7. 7. Big Data Data Scientist: The Sexiest Job of the 21st Century by Thomas H. Davenport and D.J. Patil October 2012 http://hbr.org/2012/10/data-scientist-the-sexiest-job-of-the-21st-century/ Dilbert - 5 September 2012 http://dilbert.com/strips/comic/2012-09-05/Computational Science Solutions 7
  8. 8. Big Data• All data is "Big" and all computing is "High Performance" – Lake Wobegone effect...• The year 2012 saw exascale stall and big data surge• The ascendance of big data will continue – Especially for unstructured data and its analysis and visualization tools• Big Data is HPC – It’s time to broaden our understanding of HPC and bring big data into the fold – Embracing it will open HPC up to a slew of new and interesting applications – It will also help us prepare for dealing with the data that exascale simulations will produce – See Big Data Is HPC – Lets Embrace It Computational Science Solutions 8
  9. 9. Effective Use of Petascale Computing An Analysis of Computational Workloads for the ORNL Jaguar System http://dl.acm.org/citation.cfm?id=2304611Computational Science Solutions 9
  10. 10. Effective Use of Petascale Computing 4 applications sustain 1 petaflop on Blue Waters released 01.29.13 Four large-scale science applications (VPIC, PPM, QMCPACK and SPECFEM3DGLOBE) have sustained performance of 1 petaflop or more on the Blue Waters supercomputer, and the Weather Research & Forecasting (WRF) run on Blue Waters is the largest WRF simulation ever documented. These applications are part of the NCSA Blue Waters Sustained Petascale Performance (SPP) suite and represent valid scientific workloads. http://www.ncsa.illinois.edu/News/Stories/PFapps/Computational Science Solutions 10
  11. 11. Effective Use of Petascale Computing Stanford Lights Up One Million Sequoia Cores January 28, 2013 Tiffany Trader The 20 petaflop, third-generation IBM BlueGene system, Sequoia, may be the number two supercomputer according to the latest TOP500 rankings, but when it comes to max core usage, Sequoia has apparently set a new record. A team of Stanford engineers harnessed one million of Sequoias nearly 1.6 CPUs in parallel to solve a sophisticated fluid dynamics problem. Sequoia, the crown jewel of Lawrence Livermore National Laboratories (LLNL), was the fastest supercomputer in the world from June 2012 until November 2012, when it was knocked from its perch by another DOE machine, Titan, theJet noise simulation. A new design for an engine nozzle is 27 petaflop (peak) Cray XK7 system installed at Oak Ridgeshown in gray at left. Exhaust temperatures are in National Lab. Sequoias 96 racks house 98,304 computered/orange. The sound field is blue/cyan. (Source: the nodes, nearly 1.6 million cores and 1.6 petabytes ofCenter for Turbulence Research, Stanford University) memory, connected by a 5-dimensional torus interconnect. http://www.hpcwire.com/hpcwire/2013-01-28/stanford_lights_up_one_million_sequoia_cores.html?featured=topComputational Science Solutions 11
  12. 12. Effective Use of Petascale Computing The short version of the story is that we’re not  effectively  using  petascale computing  – but we ought to be…Computational Science Solutions 12
  13. 13. Broad HPC Deployment January 11, 2013 It seems like just yesterday that Encanto – thats Spanish for "enchantment" – was launched as the pride (and potential salvation) of New Mexico, primed to spur economic development by attracting high- tech companies to the state. But money troubles have plagued the system since its launch in 2008. Last summer the State of New Mexico repossessed Encanto from the non-profit that managed it, the New Mexico Computing Applications Center. The system had racked up substantial debt, and there was little funding for Encantos maintenance and operation. Now, according to a story in the Albuquerque Journal, this former Salvaging Encanto number-three superstar is headed to the chopping block. The state is planning to sell off parts of the system to local research universities – the University of New Mexico, New Mexico State University, and the New Mexico Institute of Mining and Technology – to recoup some of http://www.hpcwire.com/hpcwire/2013-01-11/salvaging_encanto.html?featured=top its investment and pay off outstanding debts. "Barring someone offering to buy the whole machine, we can still get piecemeal use from it," state Information Technology Secretary Darryl Ackley told the paper. "The universities have proposed to cannibalize it to put some of the assets back into service." The project was troubled from the start as the New Mexico government made the unusual decision that the computer should pay for itself by selling cycles to interested parties. Proponents of limited government lambasted the project as a waste of taxpayer money, while researchers expressed doubt over the sustainability of the supercomputer-as-revenue-generator business model.Computational Science Solutions 13
  14. 14. Broad HPC Deployment• Among those working at the leading edge of HPC, petascale computing is seen as a  done deal – Making exascale happen is where the action is – We tend to forget that most of the computing world is operating at terascale or below• HPC is a tool – Ultimately, its success must be measured through its adoption and use – Focusing so strongly on a performance target that is a factor of a million higher than the performance level currently  experienced by the majority of HPC users may not be a good idea• Pushing the peak higher will not be useful unless we broaden the HPC base – We need to bring more people into active HPC use – We need to help users migrate upward in performance from terascale apps to petascale and beyond• How might this be accomplished? – Through the sort of educational activities mentioned previously – By committing strongly to the development of new apps (see Meet the Exascale Apps), rather than just continuing to  port the same old legacy apps into environments for which they were not designed and to which they are unsuited – By making petascale computing ubiquitous (see Petaflop In a Box) Computational Science Solutions 14
  15. 15. Computing in Industry INCITE PRACE Most Innovative Industrial HPC End-User Application in Europe - Open Competition in conjunction with 5th PRACE Executive Industrial Seminar LOCATION Stuttgart, Germany, 15th and 16th April 2013 PRACE are pleased to announce the launch of the second round of its Competition for the Most Innovative HPC End- User Application in Europe. This competition is organised in conjunction with the 5th PRACE Industrial Seminar that will take place on 15th and 16th of April 2013 in Stuttgart in Germany. The theme of the 2013 event is ‘HPC Changing Europe’s Industrial Landscape’. The objective of this contest is to award the boldest industrial HPC end-user application – we want to see how far one can take this technology in changing the present paradigms of HPC use by European industry. This competition is open to all fields of HPC and industrial sectors. http://www.prace-ri.eu/open-competition-2013Computational Science Solutions 15
  16. 16. Computing in Industry• “Enhancing our economic competitiveness” is a standard justification for  pushing the HPC performance envelope• We are told that there’s a “missing middle” in HPC• Most industrial users compute at terascale• INCITE is not addressing this issue• PRACE is doing somewhat better• The US has no “technology agency” – No one is clearly in charge of advancing computation and its uses in science and  engineering• DOE should do for energy applications what NASA did for aerospace Computational Science Solutions 16
  17. 17. Marginalization  RiskComputational Science Solutions 17
  18. 18. Marginalization  Risk Pinoccio Microcontroller to Crowdfund the Internet of Things By Nathan Hurst 01.12.13 Enter Pinoccio, an Indiegogo-funded microcontroller designed to let you build and link projects to each other and to the web. It’s http://www.wired.com/design/2013/01/pinoccio-indiegogo/ essentially a DIY “Internet of Things” controller in a tiny, programmable package. With comparable specs to the Arduino Mega, Pinoccio joins a host of Android-based and Android-inspired packages available on the most popular crowdfunding platforms. It is battery powered, includes a temperature sensor, and Wi-Fi enabled (so long as you have at least one with a Wi-Fi shield). Pinoccio is programmable using Arduino- compatible software, and linkable in a sort of daisy chain via a low- power radio signal. “Our kind of overall mission with this whole project is to glue the virtual and the physical together,” said Eric Jennings, Pinoccio co- founder, on a live Q&A session on Friday. “If we can build all the plumbing and the glue between that, so that things are connected physically and virtually, as easy as they are right now between mobile and web, then we feel like we’ve accomplished what we’ve been trying to do.”Computational Science Solutions 18
  19. 19. Marginalization  Risk The Internet of You: How the future of computing became screens and sensors on every appendage By Christopher Mims January 10, 2013 wearable computing Quartz.com http://qz.com/42632/the-internet-of-you-how-the-future-of-computing-became-screens-and-sensors-on-every-appendage/Computational Science Solutions 19
  20. 20. Marginalization  RiskComputational Science Solutions 20
  21. 21. Marginalization  Risk• The computing and communications landscape is changing quickly• The distinction between data crunching and number crunching is blurring• The “internet of things” and the “internet of us” are emerging• The initiative in computing is passing from organizations to individuals• Publishing has been radically changed by this• Higher education appears to be next in the queue• The funding model for science could also be impacted• We need to adapt – or science as we currently  know it could become a marginal activity Computational Science Solutions 21
  22. 22. Public  Engagement Darpa Open Sources Code for Building Your Own Amphibious Tank By Robert McMillan 01.10.13 http://www.wired.com/wiredenterprise/2013/01/darpa-fang/ Two years ago, Defense Secretary Robert Gates killed off the Marines’ Expeditionary Fighting Vehicle — a $13 billion misfire of an attempt to build an armored boat that could make landfall and still get around on the beach. But on Monday, the Department of Defense will give you the chance to design something better. The DoD’s forward-thinking Darpa group plans to release open- source software that will let anyone design and run virtual tests on their own swimming tank. And more than that, it will kick off the first phase of a contest where you can pit your amphibious tank design against everyone else’s. The prize: $1 million.Computational Science Solutions 22
  23. 23. Public  Engagement OpenStreetMap Reaches 1 Million Users, Will Rival Google Maps In 2 Years Carl Franzen January 12, 2013 TPMIdeaLab OpenStreetMap is on a roll: Over eight years after it was founded by a single computer engineer in the UK, the free digital map assembled by volunteers around the globe crossed 1 million registered users as of early this week, the start of 2013. http://idealab.talkingpointsmemo.com/2013/01/openstreetmap-reaches-1- million-users-will-rival-google-maps-in-2-years.phpComputational Science Solutions 23
  24. 24. Public  Engagement 3 Kickstarter‐Backed Films Earn Oscar Nods Brian Anthony Hernandez 10 January 2013 Mashable Sprinkled among the high-budget films nominated for Oscars this year are three with humble financial beginnings. Inocente, Kings Point and Buzkashi Boys got monetary boosts from crowdfunding platform Kickstarter long before the Academy granted them nods at Thursdays nominations event. The flicks raised more than $90,000 from 558 http://mashable.com/2013/01/10/kickstart-films-oscars-nominations/ backers on Kickstarter. Those projects creators are just a few of the filmmakers who have raked in $102.7 million in pledges since 2009. "These are the fourth, fifth and sixth Kickstarter projects to be nominated for Oscars," said Kickstarter in a statement. "Incident in New Baghdad, Sun Come Up, and The Barber of Birmingham were all nominated in the past."Computational Science Solutions 24
  25. 25. Public  Engagement• Will HPC still be an exclusive club a decade from now? – In any case, should it be? – Might we not be better off to engage as many people as possible in our enterprise?• The “public” is part of the solution – The more that people are engaged in computing, the better they will understand it – and support it• Cognitive surplus – Think of science activities like the Christmas Bird Count, NASA’s Zooniverse, or Foldit, just to name a few – Between now and exascale, let’s get major citizen involvement in computational science and HPC• Crowd sourcing – We could try crowd sourcing some software and hardware development. • On the software side, crowd sourcing has already gained some popularity (e.g., TopCoder) • Given the widespread availability of components, like GPUs, prototyping platforms (e.g., Arduino & Raspberry Pi), and other components (e.g., Adafruit Industries), hardware development doesn’t need to be just a spectator sport• Crowd funding – Those who choose not to participate in crowd sourcing might like to try crowd funding • The general public currently funds creative projects of many types through sites like Kickstarter, Indiegogo and Petridish • Perhaps there’s room for sites that focus on topics related to HPC• “Apps Populi” – Let’s use the interconnectedness of our science to create distributed apps that engage the public directly Computational Science Solutions 25
  26. 26. Infrastructure  Refresh Why Is Google Fiber the Country’s Only Super-Speed Internet? By Klint Finley 01.11.13 Google Fiber was supposed to be a shaming exercise. But any shame felt by the country’s big-name ISPs has yet to produce the sort of ultra-high-speed internet services we’ve all been hoping for. http://www.wired.com/wiredenterprise/2013/01/google-fiber-shaming-exercise/Computational Science Solutions 26
  27. 27. Infrastructure  Refresh Charles Arthur 7 February 2013 Mobile internet devices will outnumber humans this year Cisco report says number of smartphones, tablets, laptops and internet-capable phones will exceed number of humans in 2013 http://www.guardian.co.uk/technology/2013/feb/07/mobile-internet-outnumber-peopleCisco Forecasts 11.2 Exabytes per Month ofMobile Data Traffic by 2017http://www.cisco.com/en/US/solutions/collateral/ns341/ns525/ns537/ns705/ns827/white_paper_c11-520862.htmlComputational Science Solutions 27
  28. 28. Infrastructure  Refresh Your Gadgets Are Slowly Breaking the Internet The Internet isn’t robust enough for the ongoing explosion of connected devices. Now labs around the country are scrambling for solutions. By David Talbot January 9, 2013 http://www.technologyreview.com/news/509721/your-gadgets-are-slowly-breaking-the-internet/ The grand challenge is to overhaul the Internet to better serve an expected flood of 15 billion network-connected devices by 2015—many of them mobile—up from five billion today, according to Intel estimates. The Internet was designed in the 1960s to dispatch data to fixed addresses of static PCs connected to a single network, but today it connects a riot of diverse gadgets that can zip from place to place and connect to many different networks. As the underlying networks have been reworked to make way for new technologies, some serious inefficiencies and security problems have arisen (see “The Internet is Broken”). “Nobody really expects the network to crash when you add one more device,” says Peter Steenkiste, computer scientist at Carnegie Mellon University. “But I do have a sense this is more of a creeping problem of complexity.” Over the past year, fundamentally new network designs have taken shape and are being tested at universities around the United States under the National Science Foundation’s Future Internet Architecture Program, launched in 2010.Computational Science Solutions 28
  29. 29. Infrastructure  Refresh http://www.infrastructurereportcard.org/Computational Science Solutions 29
  30. 30. Infrastructure  Refresh • Between now and exascale, we need to do a whole lot of infrastructure development  and build out • No matter what we’ll be calling the cloud by then, everything will be in it, from  personal  devices  and internet‐enabled things up through  those  exascale computers • Robustness,  connectivity and communications bandwidth will be keys  to the success of  this  environment • In a recent report  card for  America’s  infrastructure, the American Society of Civil  Engineers (ASCE) gave the US an overall grade of D • The  ASCE  didn’t  specifically  address  computing  and  communications  infrastructure,  but the Technology  CEO  Council asserts  that “The national information and  telecommunications  infrastructure  currently  deployed  for  today’s  technological  applications is not robust enough to support the technological advancements of the  future.”  • Clearly there are lots of things we need to start doing now in order to have the  necessary  infrastructure  to exploit exascale laterComputational Science Solutions 30
  31. 31. Success Metrics Top problems with the TOP500 http://www.ncsa.illinois.edu/News/Stories/TOP500problem/ 2013: Time to stop talking about Exascale https://docs.google.com/open?id=0B8QCZ3jIFMVlMDdRS243RzdEcmsComputational Science Solutions 31
  32. 32. Success Metrics• In moving forward with HPC there’s also a lot of rethinking we need to devote to our success  metrics• Kudos go to Bill Kramer  at the National Center  for  Supercomputing Applications (NCSA)  for  taking the courageous  step of opening the conversation  on this topic (see Top  problems  with  the  TOP500 and Blue Waters Opts Out of TOP500)• More  recently,  Bill Gropp,  also from  NCSA, has joined this conversation  (see 2013:Time  to  stop  talking about  Exascale)• Alongside  the TOP500, the Green500 and Graph  500 lists have gained in popularity in recent  years  and other  possibilities have been  suggested  (see HPC Lists We’d Like to See), but the  success metric  issue remains an open one• Computers are tools and we need to measure their success by how well they enable  discovery  and  solve  problems• We’re not there yet, but maybe we can get a bit closer before 2022 Computational Science Solutions 32
  33. 33. Let’s Not Wait• Exascale computing may be a decade away, but there’s a lot to accomplish to be  ready to exploit it• We’ve explored a few options here• We make no claim that these constitute the right agenda for the coming decade,  nor do we suggest that we’ve given an exhaustive to‐do list• Our intention is rather to open the conversation about what we should do while  “waiting” for exascale• So, let us know what you think – Contribute to the conversation here: Waiting for Exascale Computational Science Solutions 33
  34. 34. Thank You for  Your Attention Contribute to the Conversation  at the Google Plus Community: Waiting for Exascale Please also see the HPCwire article Waiting  for  ExascaleComputational Science Solutions 34
  35. 35. Computational Science Solutions Solutions for a Connected WorldMission:• Develop, advocate, and implement solutions for the global computational science and engineering communityExecution:• Exploit computing and networking technologies to develop new directions in education, research, applications and outreach• Consider both information-based and physical sciences-based problems.• Partner with others to develop synergies and build mutual strengths• Provide education, training and outreach servicesContact:Computational Science SolutionsPO Box 270953Fort Collins, CO 80527-0953Phone : 970 225-3794Info@ComputationalScienceSolutions.com