Gartner Perspecitve: IT Spending 2010


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Gartner delivers that insight through unique perspectives on
IT spending, including peer benchmarks, spending forecasts
and budgeting constructs.

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Gartner Perspecitve: IT Spending 2010

  1. 1. GarTner PerSPecTIve: IT Spending
  2. 2. 2010 may be the most important year of your career. 2008 – 2009 witnessed the most severe economic recession in generations, and the IT industry suffered an even greater decline than it did during 2001, following the dot-com bubble. Yet all recessions come to an end, and this one will, too. It is now—as the recession gives way to growth—that there is great opportunity to plan for that growth and enable your organization to take advantage of a recovering economy. Leading the IT organization in 2010 requires a clear vision for melding technology, business process and financial management into a cohesive view of IT investments and priorities.
  3. 3. IT Spending Overview The basis for such vision is insight into which industries, countries and IT priorities will grow fastest, first, giving you the ability to anticipate and innovate rather than react and follow. Gartner delivers that insight through unique perspectives on IT spending, including peer benchmarks, spending forecasts and budgeting constructs. Gartner has the most extensive IT benchmarking database available, enabling clients to assess their IT spending relative to their peer organizations based on size, industry and geography. Gartner also surveys HR and finance professionals to gain their unique perspective on IT. In addition, daily interactions with technology and service providers and investors provide another dimension to our analysis of IT spending. The 3,700 CIOs and senior IT executive who are members of Gartner Executive Programs also provide invaluable insight into the leading practitioners of information technology, further rounding out the nuanced viewpoint only Gartner offers. Gartner analysts are world-renowned experts in their fields, leveraging all of these perspectives to create holistic forecasts of the IT industry. It is this uniquely broad set of inputs, combined with analyst expertise and daily interactions with clients, that enables Gartner to decisively forecast the IT industry across industries, geographies and enterprise size. Simply stated, Gartner delivers the world’s most comprehensive, accurate perspective on IT spending. The “Gartner Perspective: IT Spending” booklet provides an overview of Gartner research on IT spending and functions as a reference guide to top-level statistics and IT spending analysis. It provides a glimpse into the powerful insight Gartner can provide as you navigate through what may be the most important year of your career. Barbara Gomolski Managing Vice President Gartner Research
  4. 4. Table of Contents 3 Worldwide IT Spending Forecast 4 Worldwide Computing Hardware Outlook 6 Worldwide Software Outlook 8 Worldwide Telecommunications Outlook 10 Worldwide IT Services Outlook 12 Worldwide IT Spending by Region 13 IT Spending Trends by Vertical Industry 16 IT Metrics: IT Staffing Levels for 2010 18 CIO Agenda 2010
  5. 5. Worldwide IT Spending Forecast Worldwide IT Spending Forecast Richard Gordon, Vice President, Gartner Research The global economic downturn has continued to weigh on the ability and desire of businesses and consumers to make IT purchases. However, we assume the economy will recover, beginning towards the end of 2009 and tentatively at first. While initial growth in IT spending in 2010 and 2011 may come as the result, directly or indirectly, of the various government stimulus packages announced around the world in recent months, there will be a return to more sustained growth in IT spending in 2012 and 2013 as the economic recovery unfolds. IT budget cuts may have slowed market growth in the short term but, even in the toughest of business environments, enterprises must preserve short-term spending on critical business operations and long-term technology investments. IT vendors should be sensitive to the challenges faced by their customers and plan pricing strategies accordingly. The global economic downturn may be easing, but IT budgets are still being cut and consumers will need more persuading before they feel confident enough to spend more. Worldwide IT spending is forecast to total $3.2 trillion in 2009, a 5.2 percent decrease from 2008 spending of $3.4 trillion (see Table 1). Worldwide IT spending is expected to return to growth in 2010 as revenue is projected to reach $3.3 billion, a 3.3 percent increase from 2009. TaBle 1 Worldwide end-User Spending on IT (Billions of U.S. Dollars) 007 008 009 010 Total Market 3,181 3,372 3,198 3,304 Annual Growth (%) – 6.0 -5.2 3.3 Source: Gartner (September 2009)
  6. 6. Worldwide IT Spending Forecast In addition, during the next two years IT vendors should: – Reassess rapidly changing customer needs and opportunities. For example, social networks are impacting the way in which vendors should communicate with customers. Marketing messages must be managed and controlled more closely. – Rebalance priorities between customer acquisition and retention. As the sales environment has become more challenging, business will have focused much harder on retaining existing customers. – Provide realistic business return on investment statistics, benchmarks and proofs of concept. For example, ensure that products and services deliver tangible and demonstrable business benefits. – Revaluate and refine partnership programs, relationships and strategies. For example, quantify and justify assumptions of the opportunity available to partners, and prepare for new market entry with partners that can provide regional, vertical market and application integration skills. Worldwide Computing Hardware Outlook Jon Hardcastle, Director, Gartner Research Hardware is the easiest segment of IT spend to cut from budgets as there is no ongoing spend to support. Hardware spend is also heavily impacted by the poor access to credit, both for individuals and companies. Hardware will therefore see the steepest decline of all segments during 2009. The weakest segments are PCs and servers. These segments are impacted by delayed replacement activity and very little new investment.
  7. 7. Worldwide Computing Hardware Outlook Worldwide hardware spending is on pace to decline 16.5 percent in 2009 as revenue totals $317 billion (see Table 2). In 2010, hardware spending will be flat with spending totaling $317 billion. TaBle 2 Worldwide end-User Spending on Computing Hardware (Billions of U.S. Dollars) 007 008 009 010 Total Market 370 380 317 317 Annual Growth (%) – 2.5 -16.5 0.0 Source: Gartner (September 2009) The dollar’s rise has also had a very strong effect on the hardware market. As the dollar has risen, like-for-like local revenues have led to lower U.S. dollar revenues. Most hardware pricing follows the dollar, so a rising dollar will also lead to rising local prices. Rising prices in such a poor economic environment will lead to falling sales. Hardware vendors look to offset this by lowering configurations; however, this leads to erosion of U.S. dollar average selling prices (ASPs) and lower U.S. dollar revenues. Users, especially professional users, have increased average hardware lifetimes in response to the ongoing economic slowdown. The most prominent segments to see longer life cycles are professional PC desktops, copiers and multifunction products, and x86-based servers. We expect longer lifetimes to delay roughly 40 million desktop PC replacements and 7 million mobile PC replacements in 2009.
  8. 8. Worldwide Hardware and Systems Outlook Companies are reviewing their deployment strategies and making decisions such as permanently lengthening life cycles, deploying virtualization, consolidating devices, migrating from higher-cost platforms or cutting non-core infrastructure. Meanwhile, while new strategies are developed, there will be further buyer inertia and sales cycles will lengthen. We expect 2010 spending to be at a similar level to 2009. Although we will see an increase in replacement activity, this will take place in a highly cost-constrained environment. Lower configured systems, lower ASPs, virtualization and consolidation will mean that the increase in replacement demand will not necessarily be reflected in increased levels of spend. Worldwide Software Outlook Joanne Correia, Managing Vice President, Gartner Research Cost optimization will benefit alternative software acquisition models as organizations will look for ways to shift spending from capital expenditures to operating expenditures. Because of this, vendors offering software as a service (SaaS), IT asset management, virtualization capabilities and a good open- source strategy will benefit. However, the still-small portion of spending coming from these technology areas does not have the ability to improve the gloomy outlook for the overall software market.
  9. 9. Worldwide Software Outlook Worldwide software spending in 2009 is on pace to total $221 billion—a 2.1 percent decline from 2008 spending of $225 billion (see Table 3). Software spending is projected to return to growth in 2010, with revenue reaching $231 billion, a 4.8 percent increase from 2009. TaBle 3 Worldwide enterprise Spending (Billions of U.S. Dollars) 007 008 009 010 Total Market 209 225 221 231 Annual Growth (%) – 7.9 -2.1 4.8 Source: Gartner (September 2009) Hardware projects continue to be stalled for PCs, servers and storage, further pushing down the new sales of infrastructure software that are dragged by hardware sales. Also, new sales of enterprise application software in the manufacturing and financial sectors have completely stalled as these vertical sectors sort out their long-term viability. Nevertheless, survey research indicates that organizations are looking to the long term by streamlining their IT portfolios and considering new products that help them optimize their IT infrastructure, resulting in smaller but more-strategic purchases. As a consequence, we expect pent-up demand for infrastructural, strategic and enterprisewide deployments to increase, and to materialize at some point when economic recovery begins. Overall enterprise software sales for 2010 look positive, but the drag from the downturn is slowing down the pace of recovery of the annual growth rate (AGR) through the forecast period. 7
  10. 10. Worldwide Telecommunications Outlook Worldwide Telecommunications Outlook Peter Kjeldsen, Director, Gartner Research Gartner expects the telecommunications market to decline nearly $79 billion, or -4 percent in 2009. The market is forecast to grow 3.2 percent in 2010, taking the total market to $1.9 trillion (see Table 4). TaBle 4 Worldwide end-User Spending on Telecommunications (Billions of U.S. Dollars) 007 008 009 010 Total Market 1,854 1,958 1,879 1,940 Annual Growth (%) – 5.6 -4.0 3.2 Source: Gartner (September 2009) Consumers have replaced their mobile handsets less often, and those who have replaced them have spent less money doing so as more aggressively priced devices have reached the market. Smartphones is the fastest-growing segment and is expected to represent 15 percent of overall mobile device sales. Consumer spending on both mobile and fixed services remains fairly resilient to the global economic downturn. However, average revenue per connection will continue to trend down on a global basis in the midterm despite operator attempts to use mobile data to offset price reductions in voice. The enterprise network services segment is being hit by the tight access to capital that will remain in many countries through mid-2010. The recession is lengthening sales cycles, and providers are being forced to offer deeper discounts in the short term to win business. 8
  11. 11. Worldwide Telecommunications Outlook Overall spending in the enterprise network equipment market will be driven by changes in gross domestic product (GDP) and employment through 2011, particularly in mature markets. Spending on areas that promise cost savings, such as WAN optimization and Secure Sockets Layer (SSL) virtual private networks (VPNs), will be less influenced by changes in GDP and employment levels. Within the enterprise communications applications segment, telephony is a mature market that typically grows in line with overall economic growth. Revenue from contact center infrastructure will recover somewhat but will lag overall economic growth until organizations re-staff call centers up to the capacity of their technology deployments. There will be a shift from hardware-based desk phones to shipments of licenses for software clients for PCs, laptops and smartphones. The carrier network infrastructure market is suffering a late cyclical impact from the financial crisis, with negative growth in 2009 and 2010. However, the long-term fundamentals are intact and will drive a moderate rebound of the market from 2011 to 2013. Emerging markets will continue to gain importance throughout the forecast period. New investments in telecom operations and management systems (TOMS) will be primarily driven by business goals of cost savings, revenue generation, as well as improvements in customer experience and churn reduction. In the developed markets, complex TOMS transformation, modernization programs and adoption of new technologies and services will drive growth. In emerging markets, rapid subscriber growth, outsourcing projects and new communications service providers (CSPs) will drive growth for basic end-to-end solutions. 9
  12. 12. Worldwide IT Services Outlook Worldwide IT Services Outlook Kathryn Hale, Vice President, Gartner Research All companies must harness information to create competitive advantage. It is no longer possible to leverage information without technology, and both the information to be managed and the supporting technologies are continuously becoming more complex. Leading-edge IT implementations generally require special expertise from external service providers. Although many businesses are focused on improving internal processes and reducing costs, investing in innovation does continue. Some businesses still have the resources to invest in IT to retain customers and gain competitive advantage; wherever those resources exist, business management recognizes that a downturn can be a perfect time to undertake projects that impact future growth. Worldwide IT services spending is on pace to total $781 billion in 2009, a 3.5 percent decline from 2008. In 2010, worldwide IT services spending is forecast to reach $816 billion, a 4.5 percent increase from 2009 (see Table 5). Many contracts for more-standardized services, such as software support, are multiyear and cannot be readily canceled, which protects revenue in tough times. Global delivery models allow buyers to use less-expensive labor, which simultaneously increases demand for previously unaffordable services while reducing spending growth rates for standardized services that cost less than before. 10
  13. 13. Worldwide IT Services Outlook TaBle 5 Worldwide end-User Spending on IT Services (Billions of U.S. Dollars) 007 008 009 010 Total Market 747 809 781 816 Annual Growth (%) – 8.3 -3.5 4.5 Source: Gartner (September 2009) Government intervention is a “wild card” in the U.S. and Western Europe that is currently assumed to be slightly positive. In the short term, the immediate opportunity is for consulting outside of IT services. However, as new government policies evolve, we expect to see long-term opportunity for IT services deriving from new regulations and governance structures. Most companies are seeking to control labor costs, including IT labor. Turning to external providers can be an immediate solution. The effects of dampened demand for IT services are exacerbated by intense pricing pressure, which is being met with deals that reduce scope, move labor to lower-cost regions, and in the case of Tier 2 providers, reduced rates for existing labor. Overall, we expect price improvements to lag at least a year behind any meaningful economic recovery. 11
  14. 14. Worldwide IT Spending by Region Worldwide IT Spending by Region Richard Gordon, Vice President, Gartner Research All regions experienced a decline in IT spending in 2009, with Western and Eastern Europe recording the biggest declines. Only Japan and Middle East and Africa showed positive and flat growth, respectively (See Table 6). TaBle 6 Worldwide end-User Spending on IT Products and Services by Region (Billions of U.S. Dollars) Region 007 008 009 010 United States 929 957.2 932.1 958.3 Annual Growth (%) – 3.1 -2.6 2.8 Canada 74 77.7 71.3 74.7 Annual Growth (%) – 4.9 -8.2 4.7 Latin America 222 250.7 236.4 257.1 Annual Growth (%) – 13.0 -5.7 8.8 Western Europe 872 906.0 811.9 836.1 Annual Growth (%) – 3.9 -10.4 3.0 Eastern Europe 148 170.2 142.6 140.5 Annual Growth (%) – 14.7 -16.2 -1.5 Middle East and 192 205.7 205.7 217.1 Africa Annual Growth (%) – 7.3 0.0 5.6 Japan 273 301.3 306.7 304.5 Annual Growth (%) – 10.4 1.8 -0.7 Asia/Pacific 472 503.6 490.9 515.6 Annual Growth (%) – 6.8 -2.5 5.0 Total 3,156.0 3,372.2 3,197.6 3,304.0 Annual Growth (%) – 6.0 -5.2 3.3 Source: Gartner (September 2009) 1
  15. 15. IT Spending Trends by Vertical Industry The global economy is expected to begin a gradual recovery before the end of the year. However, the timing and strength of the recovery will still vary across regions, with Asia leading the way, the U.S. following and Europe lagging behind. It will also vary across industries, with consumer markets reviving first, followed by the housing and business equipment sectors. IT Spending Trends by Vertical Industry John-David Lovelock, Vice President, Gartner Research The outlook for IT spending by industry vertical markets remains on par with overall IT spending. All segments are on pace to decline in 2009 with agriculture, mining and construction, financial services and transportation expected to record the lowest growth rates (see Table 7). Over the course of 2009, a number of factors are shaping operational and technology priorities across the major vertical markets. At the forefront, the continuing impact of the economic slowdown has forced companies and governments to reprioritize spending and shorten goals in this period of uncertainty. Similarly, vertical market organizations needed time to assess the impact of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) stimulus legislation and other major government funding programs. The prospect of greater economic stability, and possible recovery, will likely drive an uneven pace of advancement by vertical market and usher in new technology modernization priorities within those industries. 1
  16. 16. IT Spending Trends by Vertical Industry TaBle 7 IT Spending by Industry Vertical Markets Worldwide (Millions of U.S. Dollars) Vertical 007 008 009 010 Financial 524,120 548,025 502,616 515,927 Services Public Sector 438,829 464,288 443,368 459,969 Manufacturing 448,461 470,606 433,244 436,024 Communications 202,325 215,060 201,882 206,386 Retail 216,822 226,815 210,816 214,161 Services 171,459 182,374 172,061 175,046 Utilities 115,562 122,169 114,306 118,218 Transportation 103,522 108,565 99,842 101,711 Healthcare 79,592 85,058 79,798 82,207 Agriculture, 27,509 27,962 25,391 25,805 Mining, and Construction Grand Total 2,328,200 2,450,920 2,283,325 2,335,453 Source: Gartner (October 2009) In the midst of many postponed, canceled or restructured IT projects in financial services, new sets of priorities and strategies will become more coherent toward the end of 2009. Movement toward SaaS and cloud computing, shared services, and more selective outsourcing will take firmer shape as near-term priorities to address constrained IT budgets. 1
  17. 17. IT Spending Trends by Vertical Industry Although federal government IT spending continues to rise, Q409 represents the first quarter of government fiscal 2010. Historically, this represents the second-most-active quarter of government spending, and this will likely continue this year. Major focus on civil side requirements and emerging cybersecurity requirements will drive spending. In the communications sector, next generation networks and mobile broadband initiatives in Long Term Evolution and WiMAX investment will continue as telecom carriers continue to ramp up fourth-generation, high-speed wireless data access services, albeit at a subdued pace. Other areas of spending include BPM, data management, and efforts to increase and deliver enterprise managed services on IP networks. The ARRA stimulus dollars focused on the healthcare market have had an undesired effect on the market as a whole. Many care delivery organizations (CDOs) have put new projects on hold, partly due to cash-flow concerns and partly to ensure that new initiatives will meet meaningful use guidelines yet to be published. Selective thawing in frozen IT budgets will occur by Q409. However, executive pressure on operational budgets and a concentrated focus on cash-flow optimization strategies will remain the norm through the remainder of 2009, with some growth returning to healthcare IT spending in 2010. 1
  18. 18. IT Metrics: IT Staffing Levels for 010 IT Metrics: IT Staffing levels for 2010 Kurt Potter, Director, Gartner Research Because of the worldwide economic recession, many organizations have already cycled through various IT staffing changes that were defensive in nature, often short-sighted and aligned with an IT strategic plan that was misaligned to the realities of recession. Often, IT staffing changes were off plan and related to overreaction to the panic that occurred during the depths of this recession. Since many enterprises choose January 1 as the beginning of their financial fiscal year, July 1 often heralds the official start of the six-month IT budget cycle in preparation for 2010 IT strategic plans. During this annual planning process, many IT leaders will have to live with the shortcomings of previous IT staffing decisions and take corrective action to prepare for the return to growth. Although IT staffing-level planning for 2010 should be far different from the IT staff actions that organizations have taken so far in this recession, it is necessary to put into perspective the typical levels of cuts and increases that enterprises have experienced in 2008 and 2009. We polled 185 decision makers about changes in IT staff due to this economic recession. As shown in Table 8, when we asked, “What is the current impact on your IT workforce (internal FTEs and contract labor) due to this economic recession?” we discovered that the survey showed only 8.1 percent of organizations increased their head count during this recession, with only 0.5 percent stating that they increased head count more than 15 percent. Conversely, 91.9 percent either claimed declining or flat IT staffing levels, with 62.7 percent stating they showed reduced IT staffing levels. The largest response category was 50.3 percent stating they cut IT head count by between 1 percent and 15 percent over previous levels (see Table 8). 1
  19. 19. IT Metrics: IT Staffing Levels for 010 TaBle 8 Impact on IT Workforce Due to This economic Recession IT Staff Change Opinions Percent of Respondents Cutting IT head count by 1% to 1% 50.3 Cutting IT head count by more than 1% 12.4 Increasing IT head count by 1% to 1% 7.6 Increasing IT head count by more than 1% 0.5 No head count increase or decrease 29.2 Source: Gartner (June and July 2009) The severity of this recession may cause a long-term and organic increase in the size of the contract labor workforce in many organizations and result in a permanent decrease in the percentage of their workforce that are internal full-time equivalents (FTEs), which now stands at 77 percent. This is due mostly to continuation of caps on new headcount hiring that is compensated for with use of contract labor. At an average of 36 percent, IT personnel salaries and benefits tend to be the largest line item for IT spending. Due to the recession, those organizations that have policies of preserving staff will show levels as high as 75 percent when combined with rapid declines in other IT budget categories. In knowledge worker-intense industries like professional services, the percentage devoted to IT personnel salaries and benefits will tend to be higher than the norm, even in a recession. CIOs and other IT leaders must consider many other market trends and assumptions during the next six months during the IT planning cycle for 2010. Since each industry has its own dynamics, and comparison of metrics is often more art and politics than a true science, IT leaders should be prudent in how they apply these trends to their planning, and even disregard those trends that do not apply to them. 17
  20. 20. CIO Agenda 010 CIO agenda 2010 Mark McDonald, Group Vice President and Head of Research, Gartner Executive Programs Leading in 2009 was relatively simple as economic conditions headed in one direction. Now CIOs face an array of business, operational, technical and strategic challenges in 2010 as conditions may or may not improve. 88% of enterprises reported reducing the IT budget during 2009. Even with strong increased revenue in 2010, CIOs will face the future with essentially the same resource levels they had in 2006 or 2007. CIOs report that unlike past recessions, they are being pulled in two directions at once. The business needs cost savings to protect financial results—yet it also needs new solutions to retain current and attract new customers. Cost reduction challenges reflect the enterprise’s overall need to better match resources to revenues. Declining revenues, in some cases by more than 30%, require adjusting every resource in the company—including IT. Value creation, particularly of the type created by IT, is actually increasing in this environment for several reasons. First, the business will often turn to IT solutions to help reduce its own cost structure. Second, revenue pressures place a premium on delivering new features to retain current customers and grow market share. Finally, information technologies such as Web 2.0 and analytics continue to make their way into the business, requiring new IT capabilities. The need to improve business performance is changing the shape of business demand for IT to demonstrate its value. Traditional IT measures and metrics related to IT operational performance and cost are increasingly less effective. Executives want to see business impact measures in one or more of these areas. 18
  21. 21. CIO Agenda 010 CIOs should reassess their metrics and scorecards and look to connect their IT operations and solutions to positive changes in these areas. The 2009 CIO Agenda, based on a worldwide survey of 1,527 CIOs, was conducted by Gartner Executive Programs in late 2008 and represents CIO budget plans reported at that time. Flat IT budgets were found across enterprises in North America and Europe, with slight increases in Latin America and a slight decrease in Asia/Pacific. The CIOs surveyed represent more than $138 billion in corporate and public sector IT spending, encompassing 1,527 enterprises across 48 countries and 30 industries. The survey showed that senior enterprise executives recognize that IT’s contribution to economic performance extends beyond managing expenditures. They expect IT to play a role in reducing enterprise costs, not merely with cost cutting but by changing business processes, workforce practices and information use. The business priorities in Table 9 reflect these expectations. TaBle 9 Top 10 Business and Technology Priorities in 2009 Top 10 Business Priorities Ranking Business process improvement 1 Reducing enterprise costs 2 Improving enterprise workforce effectiveness 3 Attracting and retaining new customers 4 Increasing the use of information/analytics 5 Creating new products or services (innovation) 6 Targeting customers and markets more effectively 7 Managing change initiatives 8 Expanding current customer relationships 9 Expanding into new markets and geographies 10 19
  22. 22. CIO Agenda 010 TaBle 9 (contined) Top 10 Business and Technology Priorities in 2009 Top 10 Technology Priorities Ranking Business intelligence 1 Enterprise applications (ERP, CRM and others) 2 Servers and storage technologies (virtualization) 3 Legacy application modernization 4 Collaboration technologies 5 Networking, voice and data communications 6 Technical infrastructure 7 Security technologies 8 Service-oriented applications and architecture 9 Document management 10 Source: Gartner Executive Programs (January 2009) Note: 2010 CIO Agenda survey results to be published in January 2010 Meeting the challenges of 2010 will require CIOs to make harder decisions that impact more than just the IT organization. They will need to lead these resources to create results that go beyond their own productive capacity. The combination of an efficient and responsive IT resource base gives the CIO the ability and capacity to focus on the enterprise, its customers and offerings. This comes in the form of driving sustained financial and operational improvements as well as focused market-based innovation. 0
  23. 23. How Will the Recovery Impact Your IT Spend in 2010? Get the integrated perspective only Gartner can provide! Find out how you can gain access to our in-depth data reports as well as objective, actionable insight to help drive the success of your key initiatives. Visit or e-mail Please note: the market is volatile and Gartner is constantly evaluating the latest market conditions. Many of these statistics are updated quarterly, so we encourage you to check back with Gartner each quarter for the latest research and analysis.
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