Wireless Systems (ppt, 32 slides, 518 Kb)

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Wireless Systems (ppt, 32 slides, 518 Kb)

  1. 1. Wireless Systems Roadmap 2005-2010 June 2005 Bo Karlson, Östen Mäkitalo, Mats Nilsson, Jens Zander
  2. 2. Contents <ul><li>About the Study </li></ul><ul><li>The Wireless Environment </li></ul><ul><li>Background Trends </li></ul><ul><li>Societal development </li></ul><ul><li>Users and usage </li></ul><ul><li>Wireless services </li></ul><ul><li>Regulative </li></ul><ul><li>Trends in a 3-5 year Perspective </li></ul><ul><li>Technology </li></ul><ul><li>Industry </li></ul><ul><li>Open questions </li></ul><ul><li>Potential Showstoppers </li></ul><ul><li>The Wireless World in 2015 and Beyond </li></ul><ul><li>Competitive Advantage of the Swedish Wireless Industry </li></ul><ul><li>Conclusions </li></ul>
  3. 3. About the study <ul><li>This study has been carried out by Wireless@KTH under commission from Invest in Sweden Agency (ISA) during April and May 2005 </li></ul><ul><li>The focus is on “Wireless Systems”, including: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Cellular systems </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>WiMax and WLAN systems </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Ad hoc Wireless Networks </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Multi-network convergence terminals </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Time horizon: 2005 - 2010 </li></ul><ul><li>Parallel ISA-studies focus on roadmaps for mobile terminals and photonic systems </li></ul>
  4. 4. The Wireless Environment Services: Communication, My Car, Voice chat, Remote surgery, See What I See… Networks MSC PSTN IP Research and Development areas: Transparent, Multi Mode, Low Cost Infrastructure, Antennas… USER Wireless Technology Demands: Quality, Coverage, Security, Cost…
  5. 5. Radio Skog Mobil 3G - UMTS Mobitex NMT450 NMT900 GSM 3G - CDMA2000 MTD W-LAN ” Wireless DSL” TREND: Higher frequencies, higher bitrates and less coverage Iridium Wireless System Generations YEAR 1985 1995 2005
  6. 6. User bit rates in practice User data bit rate  Bandwidth for a service Mobitex 1 kbit/s Iridium 2.4 kbits/s NMT450 10 kbit/s GSM CSD 10 kbit/s GSM GPRS 40 kbit/s GSM EDGE 100 kbit/s 3G Mobile 200 kbits/s 3G Semi mobile 2 000 kbit/s Radio LAN 50 000 kbits/s
  7. 7. Bit rates VS Coverage <ul><li>New radio technologies are no direct replacement for 2/3G systems </li></ul><ul><li>Bit rate not limited by technology – but by deployment density </li></ul>Bit rate Coverage/mobility 10K 100K 1M 10M 100M Indoor Local Wide area Global GSM UMTS Satellite WLAN BT Equicost/Equipower line Broadcast systems HSDPA ? More received power Super 3G ” 4G” Radios
  8. 8. Background trends – Societal development <ul><li>Society will gradually move towards a more mobile environment for its citizens and workers </li></ul><ul><li>Environmental issues increase in importance </li></ul><ul><li>Globalization continues </li></ul><ul><li>Increased economic importance of large NIC-economies (China, India, and also Russia) </li></ul><ul><li>Continued shift towards “knowledge based economy” </li></ul><ul><li>Aging population in the western world </li></ul>
  9. 9. Background trends – Users and usage <ul><li>Increased user mobility </li></ul><ul><li>Bandwidth (bit rate) demands from users will increase </li></ul><ul><li>Differentiation of users into distinct groups with different demands will increase </li></ul><ul><li>Basic service quality parameters will increase in importance </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Service reliability (low rate of interruptions, errors etc.) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Coverage </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Ease of use </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>High enough data bit rate to and from the user </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Security, integrity, privacy </li></ul></ul><ul><li>But in a novel way </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Different quality of service demands from different users </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Quality of service traded against low price </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Caching and storing of content change usage patterns </li></ul></ul>
  10. 10. Background trends – Wireless Services (1) <ul><li>The demand for wireless services will increase, but not explode! </li></ul><ul><li>Continued prize drop on services due to </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Excess wireless capacity in the early part of the studied period </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Competition between operators and technologies </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>User owned and operated networks complementing operator networks to reduce cost </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Increased focus on easy to use services </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Usage of new Man-Machine-Interfaces, e.g. voice control </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Content need to be developed for small screens, at least during the first part of the studied period </li></ul></ul>
  11. 11. Background trends – Wireless Services (2) <ul><li>Communication services will continue to dominate, at least during the first part of the studied period </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Voice </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Messaging (SMS, MMS, email etc.) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>High quality images </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>” See what I see” </li></ul></ul><ul><li>New affordable everyday services for the mass market (applications and content) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Wireless Wallet </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Finding information </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Scheduling and booking </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>etc. </li></ul></ul>
  12. 12. Background trends – Wireless Services (3) <ul><li>Increase usage of entertainment and media services </li></ul><ul><li>Fast increase in terminal memory will lead to new services based on caching content </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Extensive downloading now – Usage later </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Growth of Machine-to-Machine (M2M) based services </li></ul><ul><li>Tailored and specialized applications for large customers and specific consumer segments will increase in importance </li></ul>
  13. 13. Background trends – Regulative <ul><li>Increased flexibility and response from authorities (licensing etc.) </li></ul><ul><li>Increased technology independence and neutrality </li></ul>f [MHz] Nomadic Radio LAN FWA/Mobile FWA 3G+ Radio LAN UMTS FDD/TDD GSM1800 Iridium GSM900 CDMA2000 NMT450 Mobitex Radio Skog Mobil More bandwidth for mobile services 100 1000 2000 3500 5500
  14. 14. Trends in a 3-5 year Perspective <ul><li>Speed of change will not be drastic over the period </li></ul><ul><ul><li>It takes several years to launch new wireless services to a mass market </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Infrastructures change slowly </li></ul></ul><ul><li>3G and the new wireless data networks in Sweden will maintain world class in terms of wide area coverage and quality of service (UMTS, EDGE, CDMA2000/450) </li></ul><ul><li>There will be fierce competition between 3G evolution and other networks (e.g. IEEE802.xx), especially during 2007–2010 </li></ul><ul><li>Different starting points and development paths in different parts of the world </li></ul>
  15. 15. Trends – Technology (1) <ul><li>Increasingly complex and heterogeneous network environment </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Many different types of networks, from simple to complex, operated by different types of operators </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Many different access technologies - but several of those developed today will not survive </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>More “niche” wireless standards – no single “4G” radio standard </li></ul></ul>Gradual shift towards multi-standard “Ambient Networks”
  16. 16. A multi-standards wireless future Iridum CDMA2000/450 GSM/GPRS/EDGE UMTS FDD/TDD HSDPA Super 3G Zigbee Bluetooth WLAN WIMAX I-burst Flash OFDM Wibro Ripwave IEEE 802.xx UWB … . Wide-area (cellular) Hot spots Hot regions Satellites …
  17. 17. Voodoofone ® UMTS BS&S ® Hotspot service Sams Home WLAN Alice’s PAN Sams PAN T-stabil ® GSM Wide Area Ambient Networks
  18. 18. Trends - Technology (2) <ul><li>Network standards and technology </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Fixed-Mobile-Wideband data convergence e.g. the UMA standard, triple play </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>New networks will be introduced </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Alternative low cost infrastructures </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Providing wide-area coverage (e.g. digital 450 MHz and others) </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Providing local access (e.g. IEE802.XX) </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Wireless DSL increases in importance as a complement to existing copper lines and as 3G complement </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>The ”All IP” vision develops further </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>User bit rates improves gradually, in a staircase without drastic steps </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Increased up link demands from users will lead to more symmetrical bandwidth capability </li></ul></ul>
  19. 19. Trends – Technology (3) <ul><li>Terminals </li></ul><ul><ul><li>More multimode terminals (in particular WLAN/Cellular) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Megapixel cameras as well as high-resolution video cameras </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Large storage facilities in terminals (+Gigabytes) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Improved screens and eventually “virtual screens” </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Specific technology developments </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Network components and subsystems </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Antenna technology in the form of multiple ports (MIMO), smart units, etc. </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Man-Machine-Interfaces (MMI) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>e.g. Speech recognition and synthesis </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Dynamic Spectrum Access (DSA) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Solutions for Digital Rights Management (DRM) </li></ul></ul>
  20. 20. Trends – Industry (1) <ul><li>Wireless will continue to be an important industrial sector for Sweden </li></ul><ul><ul><li>The wireless clusters, e.g. Kista/Stockholm, will grow further </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>More foreign companies establish in these clusters </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Two distinct markets evolve with different technologies and paradigms </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Wide-area (traditional cellular) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Local access </li></ul></ul>
  21. 21. The Battleground Wide area wireless Local access wireless <ul><li>Seamless mobility </li></ul><ul><li>High speeds </li></ul><ul><li>Any-time anywhere </li></ul><ul><li>Moderate data rates </li></ul><ul><li>” Cordless” access </li></ul><ul><li>Stationary use </li></ul><ul><li>High data rates </li></ul>
  22. 22. Trends – Industry (2) <ul><li>The Wide-area wireless industry </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Increased consolidation in the operator segment </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Continue to be heavily affected by political decisions </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Licensing </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Regulation regarding e.g. competition </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Both national and EU regulation </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Ericsson continues to be a very important engine </li></ul></ul><ul><li>The Local access wireless industry </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Hotspot and “Hot Region” (non-cellular) technologies will take significant part of revenue for personal communication in local business, home applications and as “wireless XDSL” (wide band in non-urban areas) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Unclear which and what type of actors in Sweden will address emerging local access needs </li></ul></ul>
  23. 23. Trends – Industry (3) <ul><li>Thus, unclear how successful 3G will be </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Regulatory and spectrum issues </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Strong competition from other technologies in indoor/local access </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Continued globalization leads to increased competition </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Outsourcing of both manufacturing and R&D to Asia and Eastern Europe continues </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>China, India, and later Russia will dominate as the most important markets </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>China, India, and Russia will become increasingly important as industrial players as well </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>South Korea and Japan will be strong markets for new wireless services and applications </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Defense and consumer technology merge </li></ul>
  24. 24. Trends - Open questions <ul><li>Multi-hop coverage extension: Using terminals as transfer nodes </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Single hop functionality already on the market and will spread further </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>True multi-hop systems (using more than one terminal to transfer information) will change the mobile communications market, but most likely not within 3-5 years </li></ul></ul><ul><li>The role of satellite services </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Usage of space communications will probably expand but only slowly </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Fixed Wireless Access (FWA) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Most of these technologies offer mobile or semi mobile services although often used as fixed </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>The regulative trend is to allow mobility, not to limit access to fixed applications </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Man Machine Interfaces (MMI) for terminals </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Advanced input units </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Screen development: Very thin, flexible, low cost screens will change industry </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>When will this type of equipment be available? </li></ul></ul>
  25. 25. Potential Showstoppers <ul><li>Collapse in managing of increasingly complex networks as well as service and usage environment </li></ul><ul><li>Power consumption in terminal leads to short usage time (battery capacity increases slower than power consumption) </li></ul><ul><li>Biological effects of radiation </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Real effects </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Perceived effects by the public </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Chaos around Digital Rights Management (DRM) </li></ul><ul><li>Difficulties guaranteeing security/integrity/privacy in networks and services </li></ul>
  26. 26. The Wireless world in 2015 and beyond (1) <ul><li>Highly heterogeneous wireless environment with a multitude of technologies </li></ul><ul><li>Abundance of easily accessible, affordable, and reliable services and terminals for all uses </li></ul><ul><li>Context and location aware information and entertainment services dominate </li></ul><ul><li>Fierce competition and many business actors offering services and local access </li></ul><ul><li>Local access infrastructure deployed and maintained by janitors, electricians, and consumers </li></ul>
  27. 27. The Wireless world in 2015 and beyond (2) <ul><li>Global wide area coverage (with location variant quality of service) </li></ul><ul><li>More spectrum for mobile/nomadic communications </li></ul><ul><ul><li>In lower bands for coverage (470-600 MHz) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>In higher bands for high bit rates and full mobility services (2.7-6.0 GHz) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>In even higher bands for bit rates over 100 Mbs for nomadic services (6-70 GHz) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Exact allocations visible by 2010 </li></ul></ul>Wireless gradually becomes a ”disappearing technology”
  28. 28. The Wireless Vision: A Disappearing Technology An example: The light bulb Penetration Time Exclusive ” Everyone” has it Vanishing technology In almost every home Why isn’t there an outlet here? In a few homes 1900 1950 2000
  29. 29. Competitive Advantage of the Swedish Wireless Industry (1) <ul><li>The Swedish Wireless industry is growing again after the recession 2000–2003 </li></ul><ul><li>World-class 3G and other wireless data networks in terms of wide area coverage and quality of service </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Mix of 3G, Hotspots, Wireless ADSL etc. supported by excellent fiber and wire-line infrastructures </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Can be used for test bed and early market activities </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Low cost for wireless access in the future, due to </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Excess capacity in the cellular networks in the first part of the period </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Increased competition between operators and technologies </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Excellent opportunities for service development and provisioning </li></ul></ul>
  30. 30. Competitive Advantage of the Swedish Wireless Industry (2) <ul><li>Nationwide availability of excellent engineering competence </li></ul><ul><li>Highly competent wireless clusters </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Strong links between industrial activities and academic research </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Areas of particular strength, both in industry and academia </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Network architectures for a highly complex and heterogeneous future </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Radio technology </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Antenna subsystems </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Audio recognition and synthesis </li></ul></ul>
  31. 31. Competitive Advantage of the Swedish Wireless Industry (3) <ul><li>Home market for the leading infrastructure manufacturer for wide area wireless networks </li></ul><ul><li>An increase of new entrepreneurial companies in the wireless industry </li></ul>An excellent ability to develop complex systems and components
  32. 32. Conclusions <ul><li>It is quite clear how wireless will develop during the next 3-5 years: Evolution not Revolution! </li></ul><ul><li>The Wireless industry and the business environment in Sweden are well equipped and will play a major role in the global development for years to come </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Strong clusters </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>High technological competence </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Both world-leading manufacturers and small entrepreneurial companies </li></ul></ul>

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