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  1. 1. Mobile Technologies Network Migration Paul S Dittner, Analyst Jason Chapman, Principal Analyst King-Yew Foong, Principal Analyst September 30, 2003
  2. 2. Wireless Network Migration <ul><li>GSM Network Migration </li></ul><ul><li>CDMA Network Migration </li></ul><ul><li>Standards Evolution </li></ul><ul><li>IMT 2000 and 3G </li></ul><ul><li>Access Technologies Comparison </li></ul><ul><li>WCDMA Deployment in Western Europe </li></ul><ul><li>Asia-Pacific Deployment </li></ul><ul><li>South Korea </li></ul>
  3. 3. Generic Mobile Network Switching Centres Radio Access Network PSTN/ISDN
  4. 4. GSM Mobile Network Base Transceiver Stations (BTS) Base Station Controllers (BSC) Mobile Switching Centre (MSC) PSTN/ISDN Fixed Networks Access Network Core Network
  5. 5. GSM Mobile Network Migration - GPRS PSTN/ISDN MSC BSC BTS Gateway GPRS Support Node (GGSN) Serving GPRS Support Node (SGSN) Packet Control Units (PCU) IP Network Internet Software upgrade to BTS to support GPRS
  6. 6. UMTS & GSM Networks PSTN/ISDN MSC BSC BTS GGSN SGSN IP Network Internet UMSC Radio Network Controllers (RNC) Node Bs
  7. 7. CDMAOne Mobile Network Base Transceiver Stations (BTS) Access Network Core Network Base Station Controllers (BSC) Mobile Switching Centre (MSC) PSTN/ISDN Fixed Networks
  8. 8. CDMA Mobile Network Migration - cdma2000 1X PSTN/ISDN MSC BSC BTS Inter Working Function (IWF) Packet Data Support Node (PDSN) New channel cards in BTS IP Network Internet Software upgrade to BTS to support 1X
  9. 9. CDMA2000 1X EV PSTN/ISDN MSC BSC BTS IWF PDSN New 1X EV channel cards in BTS IP Network Internet
  10. 10. GSM TDMA IS-136 PDC Packet Data CDMA 2000 1x EDGE/ Voice and Data W-CDMA/ TD-SCDMA HSCSD GPRS 7 - 14.4 Kbps 57 - 115 Kbps 144 - 384 Kbps - 2Mbps CDMA IS-95A CDMA IS-95B 3.5G / 4G 1xEV/ DO >2.4M 2Mbps + (1xRTT) 1xEV/ DV > 5.2Mbps Technology Migration Paths
  11. 11. Access Technology- What does it mean <ul><li>Which is the “better” access technology? </li></ul><ul><li>Services and Applications </li></ul><ul><li>Networks and Devices </li></ul><ul><li>WiFi and Wireless Broadband Deployment </li></ul>
  12. 12. IMT-2000 as shown by the ITU Source: ITU
  13. 13. Quarter 1 2003 2004 2005 W-CDMA Launches By Country Quarter 2 Quarter 3 Quarter4 <ul><li>Truly Commercial W-CDMA Networks </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Australia 3 (Hutchison 3G) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Austria 3 (Hutchison 3G) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Austria mobilkom </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Italy 3 (Hutchison 3G) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Japan Foma (NTT DoCoMo) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Sweden 3 (Hutchison 3G) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>UK 3 (Hutchison 3G) </li></ul></ul>Netherlands Sweden Italy Austria Germany Luxembourg Belgium Finland Greece Spain France Switzerland Portugal Norway Denmark Australia Hong Kong Japan Ireland UK Czech Rep Poland
  14. 14. Quarter 1 2003 2004 2005 W-CDMA Commercial Launches By Country in Asia Pacific Quarter 2 Quarter 3 Quarter4 Quarter 1 Quarter 2 Quarter 3 Quarter4 2006 + <ul><li>GSM/GPRS operators with 3G licenses: </li></ul><ul><li>Migrate to W-CDMA. </li></ul><ul><li>GSM/GPRS operators operating in markets where 3G licenses have yet to be awarded or GSM/GPRS operators who failed to secure 3G licenses: </li></ul><ul><li>Migrate to EDGE. Likely candidates are Peoples (Hong Kong), (Malaysia), DTAC (Thailand), Smart (Philippines), and Globe Telecom (Philippines). </li></ul><ul><li>CdmaOne operators or those with existing AMPS spectrum: </li></ul><ul><li>Migrate to CDMA2000 1x e.g., China Unicom (1Q 2003), Telstra (Dec 2002), Telecom New Zealand (Jul 2002), au (Apr 2002), KTF (May 2001), LGT (Apr 2001), SKT (Oct 2000). </li></ul>TD-SCDMA Commercial Prospects Likely to be a niche technology in China, overlaid onto existing GSM network. Commercial in 2005. Asia Pacific Wireless Services Deployment Australia Hong Kong New Zealand South Korea China Singapore Thailand Indonesia Philippines Malaysia India Taiwan Commercial CDMA2000 1x by New Entrants: Hutchison CAT Wireless Multimedia (Feb 2003) Asia Pacific Broadband Wireless (Jul 2003) Pre-2003 W-CDMA Commercial Launches: NTT DoCoMo (FOMA) Oct 2001 J-Phone (Vodafone Global Standard) Dec 2002
  15. 15. Wireless Services Evolution in South Korea 2000 2002 2003 2001 CDMA2000 1x commercial service, 1 Oct 2000 CDMA2000 1x commercial service, May 2001 CDMA2000 1x EV-DO commercial service, May 2002 2004 VOD Service BREW service (MultiPack) W-CDMA Service (likely in Nov 2003) W-CDMA Service (likely in 2H2003) CDMA2000 1x EV-DV Service (?) CDMA2000 1x EV-DV Service (?) Merger of 2G and 3G operators <ul><li>When W-CDMA services start, KTF and SKT will have four different networks: IS95A/B, CDMA2000 1x, CDMA2000 1x EV-DO, and W-CDMA. </li></ul><ul><li>The target market for CDMA2000 1x EV-DO and W-CDMA will overlap. </li></ul><ul><li>Carriers want to postpone investment in W-CDMA as long as possible. However, considering regulator's concern and carriers' propensity to invest, migration to W-CDMA will happen from 2005 quickly. </li></ul>CDMA2000 1x EV-DO commercial service, 28 Jan 2002
  16. 16. Thank You