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Decisions, Decisions, Decisions!!!

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Decisions, Decisions, Decisions!
“Architecture represents the significant design decisions that shape a system, where significant is measured by cost of change. – Grady Booch On Design 2006”. If this is true then the unit of progress in architecture is the ‘decision’. If decisions are that important why are we so bad at making them. We fall victim to a range of decision pitfalls
• our own cognitive biases
• organisation cultural context
• absence of clear decision rights& authority structures
• poor decision processes
• little traceability, feedback loops or reflection cycles
In this talk Clare & Gar will explain why we are so bad at decision-making & outline some steps we can take to trap, catch and avoid the pitfalls. Finally we will take a wander into the future of decision-making – flow, neuropharmacology, AI/ML & intelligent assistants.

Published in: Business
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Decisions, Decisions, Decisions!!!

  1. 1. How we got here today!
  2. 2. “We're blind to our blindness.We have very little idea of how little we know.We're not designed to know how little we know” Daniel Kahneman Author:Thinking Fast & Slow
  3. 3. Just how bad are we at making decisions?
  4. 4. encounter a choice analyze options choose a path revisit if it doesn’t workout Ideal-world decision process
  5. 5. Real-world decision process encounter a choice pick the first or most convenient option choose that option no criteria, no timely re-evaluation we get emotionally a attached to the option
  6. 6. 188 Cognitive Biases Identified
  7. 7. How biased are you?
  8. 8. 18 Cognitive Biases Causing Havoc in Business
  9. 9. We’re not rational!
  10. 10. We’re not rational!!!
  11. 11. We are just a big bag of chemicals serotonin dopamine norepinephrine anandamide oxytocin endorphins testosterone
  12. 12. What’s happening inside our heads?
  13. 13. Antagonistic Neural Networks
  14. 14. V - Volatile U - Uncertain C - Complex A - Ambiguous
  15. 15. OK… we’re that bad! What can you do about it?
  16. 16. Decision making basics From “A Decision Architecture White Paper”, Dr. David G Ullman, 2016
  17. 17. Decision making basics From “A Decision Architecture White Paper”, Dr. David G Ullman, 2016 1. Organisation’s Attitude 2. Stakeholders & Ownership 3. Objectives & Criteria Clear 4. Alternative Space 5. Information & Analysis 6. Appropriate Decision Process 7. Risk Consideration 8. Clear when decision is made 9. Record, Review & Reuse 10.Decision Buy-in
  18. 18. Understanding Decision Dynamics
  19. 19. Imagination is a must!!! no imagination == no options
  20. 20. Engage in probabilistic reasoning & understand risk tolerance % probability of penalty % probability of expected value
  21. 21. Factor in believability, assign credibility scores But don’t forget about bias 96% 50% 20% Dunning Kruger Semmelweiss Effect Silent Disagreement
  22. 22. Antidote to Antagonistic Nets
  23. 23. …Looking To The Future
  24. 24. AI-powered Boards?
  25. 25. AI-powered Boards? • Information & Risk Analysis • Stakeholder Engagement • Bias Alerts • Optimal environments Checks • Reviewing & Recording • Communicating
  26. 26. Ambient Intelligence & the Answer Cloud
  27. 27. Flow-hacking
  28. 28. Smart, Quantified & Connected
  29. 29. Micro-dosing
  30. 30. Diversity is key to good decision making
  31. 31. Good luck! The future is murky & unclear!!!
  32. 32. Appendix & References
  33. 33. Wiki - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cognitive_biases CogLode - http://coglode.com/ Thinking Fast & Slow –Daniel Kahneman https://www.amazon.com/Thinking-Fast-Slow-Daniel- Kahneman/dp/0374533555 Hooked - Nir Eyal - https://read.amazon.com/kp/embed?asin=B00NW01MKM&preview=newtab&linkCode=kpe&ref_ =cm_sw_r_kb_dp_kSj-AbG3WSKA5 Satir - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virginia_Satir Your Brain at Work – David Rock - https://www.amazon.com/Your-Brain-Work-Strategies- Distraction/dp/0061771295 Danny Kahneman & Sam Harris - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iKLE3TmtFhY
  34. 34. Jeff Bezos Shareholders Letter - https://www.scribd.com/book/344982413/Amazon-2016-Letter-to- Shareholders Decisive – Chip & Dan Heath - https://www.scribd.com/book/344982413/Amazon-2016-Letter-to- Shareholders Delegation Boards & Delegation Cards - https://management30.com/practice/delegation-board/ HBR - https://hbr.org/2010/06/the-decision-driven-organization Choice Architecture - https://www.sas.upenn.edu/~baron/475/choice.architecture.pdf WRAP Process - http://heathbrothers.com/ot/wp- content/uploads/2013/03/The_WRAP_Process_one_pager.pdf Decision Making White Paper – Dr. David G Ullman - https://eapj.org/wp- content/uploads/2017/06/Decision-Architecture-Whitepaper-Part-1.pdf AI in the boardroom:- https://slate.com/technology/2019/03/artificial-intelligence-corporate- board-algorithm.html

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