Kann smi 2013 presentation

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Kann smi 2013 presentation

  1. 1. The State and Future of U.S. Solar Shayle Kann Vice President, Research Greentech Media U.S. Solar Market Insight Conference December 2013
  2. 2. 2013: 20 States Over 20 MW 2013 Forecasted U.S. PV Installations by State and Market Segment, Top 20 States Source: GTM Research/SEIA U.S. Solar Market Insight
  3. 3. Who Sells Solar? Car Dealers Home Improvement Home Automation Environmental Groups Electricity Retailers Solar Salespeople Source: GTM Research
  4. 4. An Installation Every Four Minutes 700 600 578 Minutes Per Installation 500 400 300 200 2013: One Installation Every 279 194 125 100 108 78.7 51.8 35.1 18.5 12.2 9.4 5.9 4.0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013E U.S. PV Installation Frequency, 2001-2013 Source: GTM Research
  5. 5. Our Checklist In order to be mainstream, solar must be… a primary source of new electric capacity
  6. 6. U.S. PV Installations by Market Segment >5x Growth in Three Years Quarterly U.S. PV Installations by Market Segment, Q1 2010-Q3 2013 Source: GTM Research/SEIA U.S. Solar Market Insight
  7. 7. Varied Growth by Segment 23x Growth 2.3x Growth 2.3x Growth Quarterly U.S. PV Installations by Market Segment, Q1 2010-Q3 2013 Source: GTM Research/SEIA U.S. Solar Market Insight
  8. 8. We’re Number Two! New Capacity Additions, Q1-Q3 2012 and 2013. FERC figures used for all technologies other than solar, GTM/SEIA figures used for solar Source: FERC, GTM Research/SEIA U.S. Solar Market Insight
  9. 9. U.S.A.! U.S.A! U.S.A.! Cumulative New PV Installations in 2013, U.S. vs. Germany Source: GTM Research
  10. 10. Our Checklist In order to be mainstream, solar must be… a primary source of new electric capacity cost-competitive without reliance on fickle incentives
  11. 11. We are the 82% 2013 U.S. PV Installations by State, Q1-Q3 2013 Source: GTM Research/SEIA U.S. Solar Market Insight
  12. 12. California: No Rebate? No Problem California Residential PV Installations by Source, IOU Territory Source: GTM Research/SEIA U.S. Solar Market Insight
  13. 13. Our Checklist In order to be mainstream, solar must be… a primary source of new electric capacity cost-competitive without reliance on fickle incentives taken seriously by the electricity industry
  14. 14. The Utility Transformation Report Bandwagon
  15. 15. 2013 Net Metering Battlegrounds VT ID VA CO MO CA AZ TX LA GA Source: GTM Research
  16. 16. Utility Investment in Solar Utility Affiliate Purchases VC Investments Competitive Retailer Channel Partnerships Project Investment Source: GTM Research
  17. 17. Our Checklist In order to be mainstream, solar must be… a primary source of new electric capacity cost-competitive without reliance on fickle incentives taken seriously by the electricity industry bankable
  18. 18. Project Finance Milestones Abound Project Finance in Residential Solar Stock Performance: NRG Yield Source: GTM Research, Google Finance
  19. 19. Setting the Precedent: SolarCity’s First Securitized Portfolio Source: GTM Research, Google Finance
  20. 20. Our Checklist In order to be mainstream, solar must be… a primary source of new electric capacity cost-competitive without reliance on fickle incentives taken seriously by the electricity industry bankable
  21. 21. So Where Do We Go From Here? Forecasted Cumulative U.S. PV Installations, 2008-2027 Source: GTM Research
  22. 22. Thank You! Shayle Kann Vice President, Research Greentech Media kann@gtmresearch.com

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