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Health and flood plan


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Health and flood plan

  1. 1. SECTION I
  2. 2. PART A:
  3. 3. 1-IIM MBA CNAM Project Consulting P.B.S. PD Flood Scenario Product description choice MBA Products Organization Products (World Water Week 200, SIWI) Solution Content: Product Breakdown Structure (PBS) PFD GS RADJOU
  5. 5. 2-Product Flow Description Scenario PBS Product Description Product Flow Diagram Solution Product Description choices GS Radjou
  8. 8. a)General definitions <ul><li>Strategy : </li></ul><ul><li>A set of tactics, consider the high strategy (politics) and low strategy (Policies). Also, a tactic can be </li></ul><ul><li>high or low. These are the operations in the supply chain management. Also, in some planning a lower level </li></ul><ul><li>of the strategy can be the top level of the tactic. </li></ul><ul><li>Scenario : </li></ul><ul><li>Production of rose tinted or apocalytic predictions (Ref.: Michel Godet, from anticipation to </li></ul><ul><li>action, A handbook of strategic prospective, UNESCO Publishing, p.58 and « the future is multiple and </li></ul><ul><li>several potential futures are possible… », p. 57) </li></ul><ul><li>An event : </li></ul><ul><li>E. Borel definition, … { « abstract entity, whose characteristic is to happen (status =1) or not </li></ul><ul><li>to happen  --isolated event (status=0) »--p.59…} </li></ul><ul><li>Data : </li></ul><ul><li>Raw Data from a supermarket check out counter can be processed and organizes to produce </li></ul><ul><li>meanningful information such a the total unit of sales of… </li></ul><ul><li>[ Data :…331 Brite Dish Soap 1.29, 863 BL Hill Coffee 4.69, 113 Ginger Root .85…. 331 Brite Dish Soap 1.29… </li></ul><ul><li>I nformation : Sales Region: Northwest, Store: superstore # 122 , </li></ul><ul><li>Item : 331, </li></ul><ul><li>Description : Brite Dish Soap, </li></ul><ul><li>Units Sold : 7156, </li></ul><ul><li>YTD Sales: $9,231.24 </li></ul>( Kenneth Laudon, Management Information System (MIS), Managing the Digital firm, Chapter 1, p.15) Useful for deployment Useful for starters Useful for binary systems Useful for societies
  9. 9. b)Water H 2 O 2 Water properties linked with the free electronic doublet O-- H+ H+ d+ d+ 2d- 2d- O-- H+ H+ 2d-
  10. 10. As a rule, project management goals are to induce changes in organizations, and because changes deal with ressources, processes and ouputs. It would be nicer to understand these forces that are shaping the present environment in order to take a rational decision (manage with full rational controls). For instance, if these ressources are water in all their contexts, an expertise in water would help. Similarly, if it is a business activity, some knowledge of Market theories (Michael Porter,...) would help to master the dynamic of changes in a rational way. Embedding my project organization GS RADJOU Addition: 05/04/2010
  11. 11. Basic box process Process inputs Ouputs Feed-back Very cybernetics way to organise matters and energies in all kind of organization. All, businesses are organized in that way in order to sustain production activities, product and services orientations whether results porientate or not. With a driver toppling the whole basic box (either the: chief, boss,...or committe). It at the base of the creative engineering and the knowledge of the interactive forces betwwen all these elements GS RADJOU Addition: 05/04/2010
  12. 12. c)Samples of Time Bombs for the Sustainability Development 98% 2% Hazards Water scarcity No sanitation No Safe water 3 1 3 3 billion individuals Water Borne diseases 80% diseases Asia 4/5 Water related disasters 20 second Child + Contaminated water Drougth Flood Water issues Energy crisis Food crisis Population growth Environment Development Financial crisis Climate change US/EU rest of the world Few facts and data H20 Solid Liquid Gas Bio diversity CO2 reduction US$ Oil crisis War for Water ? Washington Consensus Water traded good Asian Delta Africa Coasts Islands Artic Global Warming
  13. 13. e)Pareto Analysis (I) Flood Earthquake Volcanic eruption Tsunami Landslide Hurricane Snow melt Surge Rain … .. Interesting points with WAER project: the waste water treatment during a disaster Most disasters include a flood
  14. 14. d) Water need contexts in flood prone regions Urban and rural zones/ Disaster Natural WAR Technology Industrial Others 20 litres 2 litres. ? Disaster Technology Geography Human geography Physical geography Risk= asset x probability x vulnerability
  15. 15. f)Pareto analysis (II) Water Malaria Thyphoid Poisoning Cholera … . Interesting points with WAER project: the vector disease reduction Water the source of most of our diseases
  16. 16. g)Water needs in towns and fields in disaster zones WATER AERO EMERGENCY RELIEF OR PROJECT WAER IS A WATER SUPPLY FOR PEOPLE AT RISK OF FLOOD (AND A STRATEGY ACCESS TO FRESH WATER) ___________________________________________ +It is a Project benchmarking as no corporates ever try before to deliver fresh water from aircrafts through 2 oz pocket water purifier air drops over flooded lands by using drones, microlights,.... +It is in the right new thinking and the innovation proned by the UN to reduce flood increases in a world of global warming
  18. 18. a)Project sources
  19. 19. b)Main business sources World Co : - Business: Japanese women’s apparel retailer World Co Ltd (« World ») - President, Hidezo Teri, believes in speed and responsiveness for his business -Championing the SPARC , the Super –Production- Apparel Retail –Consumer- Satisfaction -Start with new Brands and monitor them, then improve the production system , -Insure coordination with planning, production, development and marketing , and allows each store keeping units (SKU) to make better production: lead-times and volumes -Importance of cost in the space (Real Estate): influencing the retailer organization: independant – stand alone stores -, shops in fashion malls –grouping of stores in a building, or shops within Department stores . Stores are targeting different kind customers, implying various brands (40) - Lead-time for replenishment (from the order to the delivery: 2 weeks - Design, produce and ship new products to the retail stores within 6 weeks -Interesting point: WORLD produces on forecasted demands. The reference store for the Forecast is Obermeyer (OberMeyer forecast method) –forecasts based on previous season, then through adaption with P-D-C-A and also the annual meeting in Japan. (OberMeyer Vote meeting) - Dream project: cost cutting, reduction of inventory and the quality of the SPARC network [Ref.: Dr Schallembaum IIM MBA CNAM, Havard Business Cases, Operation Management Case Book]
  20. 20. c)No waste Production Principle Energy Information Products Waste Recharge Reuse Retention 3R System
  21. 21. d) Sample of production on forecast Water crisis unit mangement Prediction and outputs P-D-C-A Annual meeting Idea: nobody can manage water stocks, but if we know where water is in quantity and quality, we may be able to make something Forecast like the Ober Meyer method Raw material/ labor inspectorate Lead-times, Communication Management Transport Start Checked forecasts Water locations: look-out point Base, MIS) New deci- sion to pro- duce for next year forecast H E A D - Q U A R T E R S Lead-times, Communication Management Transport IFM branches Overseas Vertical integration Out sourcing home Foreign country End Lead-times, Communication Management Transport Lead-times, Communication Management Transport Needs and representation GS RADJOU
  22. 22. e)Business source: CEMEX (dealing with changes: diversity & sustainability) CEMEX : 98 years old Mexican multinational, Ready Mix Concrete and Cement, (based in Monterrey), 53 Plants around the World (including USA,…, Phillipines) - Business characteristics: Cemex: concrete business asset intensive and of low efficiency with umpredictable demands - 8000 grades of mixed concretes and forward them to 6 regional mixing plants, each with its own fleet of trucks . - customer routinely changed ½ of their orders , sometimes only hours before delivery and it may be re-routed because of weather changes, trafic jams or problems with building permits, Cemex’phone lines were often jammed as customers, truckers and dispatchers tried to get orders strait… - Boss: Laurenzo, Zambrano grand son of the founder.1985 implement IT in the business From no technology to the use of a build in system to link trucks with GPS to monitor dispatchers for location, direction, speed of every vehicules. - Customers, distributors and suppliers can use internet to place orders directly, check Shipment delivery times, and review payement records without having to telephone A customer representative services (Source: Kenneth Laudon, Management Information System)
  23. 23. Note: What is humanitarian is looking like CEMEX dealing with customer uncertainties Criticisms on humanitarian actions for not being proactive, reacting to events, the lack of anticipatory mangement The world of hazard management like the CEMEX business is full Of sources of risks and uncertainties WAER project is a possible model of fresh water delivery to manage these sources of uncertainties to the supply of fresh water during the flood
  24. 24. f)Today firm Management Information System Management Organization Technology MIS Business solution Business challenges Develop fast fashion strategy Develop design and production processes Deploy inventory replesnishement process (Source adaptation: Kenneth Laudon—MIS--) Water Aero Emergency Relief Information System [Source adaptation: MIS] Environment Cost cutting Energy saving Job creation CRS Water infiltration Malaria reduction Water trucking Flood people Their expectations
  25. 25. Real time versus forecast (new: 10/06/2010) Idea origin: development of i-pod -> into i-pad allied with google earth make it a usefull tool for huanitarin actions on the disaster fields I gave it is new name: open field virtual classrom (ofvc) It describes the life of a master of emergency at headquarters instructing or educating (perhaps simply a mean of the daily environment) staffs or citizens at very remote places -in these disaster zones – how to survive in the real time. There is no forecasts or predictions (this tool could be under construction) or software modelling , but all instructions are in real time.
  26. 26. g)Project Business Model Water trucking Drone C U S T O M E R B A S E CRM Flood Event Water supply Decoupling More than one alternative to Water trucking Data base Schools Hospitals Businesses Tourists Armies Households disabling enabling 2 oz Pocket Water Purifier GS RADJOU
  27. 27. h)Planning ressources (a conciliatory match betwen needs and supplies) Planning Resources Space Time Calendar Assumptions on flood types Classes of activities or standard Work ? Coverage of the dark zones (uneasy to forecast) Flood increase Product Base Planning Finish with tasks And allocate resources: Manpower per hours Materials GS RADJOU
  28. 28. i)Contacts linked with the project <ul><li>List location s or contact s for specification (or other related documents) here for teamwork </li></ul><ul><li>SIWI or UN Contacts: </li></ul><ul><li>+ SIWI: Administration: pernilla.konto@ </li></ul><ul><li>+ SIWI CEO: Anders Berntell, anders.berntell@siwi. org </li></ul><ul><li>+ Project Manager: katarina.andrzejewska@ </li></ul><ul><li>+ Dave trouba: </li></ul><ul><li>+ Joshia Paglia: </li></ul><ul><li>+ Dr. Ahmadzai Husamuddin, Tel: + 46-8-698 1145, www. </li></ul><ul><li>+ Director of the Flood division (IFR HelpDesk): Avinash C. Tyagi </li></ul><ul><li>+ Dyamashita: technician at WMO (Flood division) </li></ul><ul><li>+ Joachim Saalmueller, Technical Support Unit, Helpdesk for Integrated Flood Management </li></ul><ul><li>+ Follow the link: WMO homepage  Integrated Flood Resource  IFR HelpDesk   </li></ul><ul><li> various links: Flood policy and Flood measures in link with the project windows </li></ul><ul><li>Contacts Outside SIWI </li></ul><ul><li>IBM Chief Technology Officer (Mr Williams) </li></ul><ul><li>The Federal Emergency Management Assistance </li></ul><ul><li>US Geology Dept (Flood Marketing and training division) </li></ul><ul><li>US Rothchild Fondation for Education </li></ul><ul><li>Other various contacts </li></ul>
  29. 29. j)For more info: reference Mains 1-Institute International of Management (IIM CNAM MBA) =>Lectures of MBA topics representing the real world of Corporate multinationals 2-Stockholm Water International Institute (SIWI): =>World Water Making policy organization and my last participation in 2009 for the consulting project (SIWI Administration, communication officer Joshia Paglia: 3-World Meteorological Organization (WMO): =>about forecasts and better predictions (influence of lead-times), meeting in Costa Rica in 2006 NOAA, USAID and WMO and (WMO Homepage) 4-IFR HelpDesk (WMO/GWP Flood division): =>about IFR HelpDesk (Director C. Avanashi of the flood division or type directly on the internet « GS RADJOU » for my individual contribution with Dyamashita) 5-Water subsidies and Water Human rights => Collective participation in decision making process: SIWI Administration, Dr. Ahmadaza Husamuddin and UN expert on Water Human rights In addition FEMA (US Federal Emergency Management Assistance): =>I am registered in their database and I have regular contacts with the Flood assistance, adaptation and mitigations services. US Fed Geology Survey Department: => Through their Marketing department, I learned about their flood software International Business Machine (IBM): => Mr William, Chief Technology Officer, I shared through emails with the CFO a common vision of a water infrastructure service: IBM Water leadership, really. GreenBizz (Green Business): =>Organization that runs a Webmedia front runner in matter of discovery new entries in the world of green stewardship in all framework of activities
  31. 31. a)Project Media attention <ul><li>Emotions and sadness </li></ul><ul><li>Country crisis </li></ul><ul><li>Crisis management </li></ul><ul><li>Time management </li></ul><ul><li>Weather and hydrology </li></ul><ul><li>People activities </li></ul><ul><li>Taking decision </li></ul><ul><li>Looking for new horizons </li></ul><ul><li>Drowning people </li></ul><ul><li>Terrorism </li></ul><ul><li>… . </li></ul><ul><li>Business and investment </li></ul>
  32. 32. b)Data on Natural disasters 2009 : 55 millions people suffer severe stresses with disasters (Mr J. M. Jarraud, WMO President Ref: WMO website) 2008 : -214 millions humans affected by natural disasters, -235 000 killed ones - Total Billing: $190 billions in damages -Disaster Costs increase since 1960 -Number of dead stabilized at: 200 000/year -United Nations warned to take specific actions since 2005, if not there is a risk to jeopardize development A few disaster figures <ul><li>International community tools against disasters </li></ul><ul><li>a) Sattelites: </li></ul><ul><li>-give the alert (raise the alarm) </li></ul><ul><li>-inform the rescuers of disater places </li></ul><ul><li>-play a major role in dispatching the aids </li></ul><ul><li>b) Computers: </li></ul><ul><li>-phenomenal speeds of the calulators help to deal with the need to treat huge flux of data. – </li></ul><ul><li>(For instance Meteo France 2007, Net SX 6R, treats 2300 billions of operations per second.) </li></ul><ul><li>c) Sattelite network: </li></ul><ul><li>250 sattelites with tools to observe the Earth –up to 10 tools- </li></ul><ul><li>d)Forecast improvement: </li></ul><ul><li>A 4 day forecast is equivalent to a 1 day forecast , 15 years ago </li></ul>Environment Research « Le Monde, Special Science », Nov-Dec 2009 p-42
  33. 33. b)Project flood communication DRINKING WATER SUPPLY AND FLOOD PLAN
  34. 34. Project description in non technical terms <ul><li>(Personal description from what is known through the media attention </li></ul><ul><li>-probably, it is not too different from the real world of flood experiences) </li></ul><ul><li>When there is a flood, it can takes a long-time before the international </li></ul><ul><li>community reacts, when it should act to supply water to people at risk </li></ul><ul><li>of flood (for instance when an international assistance is possible). </li></ul><ul><li>Meanwhile, the death tolls increase. People dies not from the disaster </li></ul><ul><li>itself , but the aftermath of the disaster by drinking contaminated water. </li></ul><ul><li>Also, the queueing of refugees on roads (land, sea and air) is a media </li></ul><ul><li>attention and real with unexpected globalization movments where people </li></ul><ul><li>participation is very low. </li></ul><ul><li>It is a case for humanitarian actions. Specifically through the light of </li></ul><ul><li>UN policies to substitute faulty governments to supply assistance to their own citizens. </li></ul>
  35. 35. Description in non technical terms [From rejection factors  to the engineering needs] <ul><ul><li>Negative reasons </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>A lack of autonomy: in the community survival, but instead dependance and assistance </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Due to the short term anticipation. Good flood plans should advocate for self-sufficiency, </li></ul></ul><ul><li> reliance and independance. Not same causes imply same answers </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Technical e.g. water trucking is disabled, infrastructures are out of order… </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Political: conflicts, authorisations… </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Legal proceedings: Orders (emergency evacuations, executive decret, Emergency </li></ul></ul><ul><li> Alert Warnings… </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Environmental: sand bags, walls are environmental uncompatible </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Cultural: drones and water purifiers are technologies for everybody –developped or </li></ul></ul><ul><li>emerging countries </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Economy: drone: $30, pocket water purifier: $10 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>GDP: diseases and deaths reduce the country task force and revenues </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>International projects: in principle, some water project horizon lines are too long (it is </li></ul></ul><ul><li>one option of the vicious cycle of the pover chain) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Displacement: increase of refugees during a disaster fleeing the flood zones </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Urbanism: impervious surface and mass productions. Flat surfaces </li></ul></ul>
  36. 36. Description of the project in non-technical terms I think, there is an analogy to be drawn with what François Careme, Programme Network and Energy Management Director at EDF-The French National Energy Company- when he said in Environment Research « Le Monde, Special Science », Nov-Dec 2009 p-41 the following points helping me to comment for debating of my project orientation, and, again by analogy. 1°-…«  Recours grandissant aux énergies renouvelables pourraient conduire à un accroissement des perturbations du réseau Électrique  »… Due to the fact that the wind flows are not continuous –wind is an intermediate energy, illimited but variable in flows- (I think it is correct, because networks may be compatible to a certain limit) 2 °-….also, the text adds …« Germany is number one in the world for the electricity generated from wind mills- Decentralized production units-, but supplies are often disrupted. There is great disavantadge, when the wind falls down, the electrical power supply would be annuled if the germans did not introduce a kind of compensation In the ways of more traditonal ways to produce electricity  »…(I think it is correct, we are never sure when the wind will stop blowing-there are still a solution with batteries to stock energy, I suppose) As I understood the text, german households proeminently –firstly- use electricity generated from soft supplies (not nuclear or oil electricity generated power supplies), then when there is a potential/real defiency in the soft supply sources, there are tops-up energy contributions by national more traditional centred energy firms -sourcing with hard energies. The delivery of electricity needs match an in-ward process- orientation from the peripherial drives –mission unit organizations eg households, firms..- supplying its own electrical energy, and afterward if households/firms lack of electricity, there is an external assistance call made for more traditional sources, this time, I suppose, in charge of the German Federal State companies to deliver from and above the insufficiences
  37. 37. Description of the project in non-technical terms 3°- The Programme Network and Energy Managing director at EDF added :  « … in France electricity network architecture are heading only one way, as well as power supply framed – I suppose EDF monopolistic (?) electricity state company, with all the good willing to advocate for decentralization cannot deliver on the promise of set a perfect network of self autonomous ways to produce electricity at decentralized scale levels – your own facility to produce your own electricity, with your own sources to my knowledge are still inexisting or not developped, today. One reason is what the Progamme Network and Energy Managing director had suggested in the text eg. the bottlenecks of past energy infrastructure options, which would render uneasy decentralized electricity production units –therefore keeping a more functional way to produce electricity in France (maybe not the case in Germany) The other reason is about expenditures raising from diversification of sources -from the mission units. Theret would be a Cost to pay for the policy energy diversification. The energy fragmentations with no correlation with people needs. And again, the french Electricity society may end-up with the need to another kind of concentration or centralization. My conclusion is , « I think, France is a small country in size, with a small population with an influence based on the use of technological prowesses to produce electricity generated from traditional forms of energy – the dominant way is Nuclear energy, which shaped the network infrastructure and development options, reversely for germany with another production option, which may be difficult to reverse because of the small size of the population, also. A centralized way to generate electricity matters for France –as a decentralized way for Germany. Now what direction for the future of electrical networks, when addressing large scale organizations with significant population sizes. In fact, as the Programme Network and Energy Managing Director at EDF is questionning, in « Le Monde »: …  «Can we introduce a large Scale decentralized production? » …
  38. 38. Description of the project in non-technical terms My project contribution tends to answer positively to the question of large scale organizations and I am taking to illustrate my debate on qualified flood organizations that have a long history of fighting floods. I have already described in the project paper (ref.: Wateter needs in towns and fields in disasater zones) the case of America, with FEMA-the US Fedal Emergency Management Assistance and the State of California flood organization. There is an obvious relationship between weather and hydrology services linked to the nature of the commerce of weather and hydrology. NOAA –National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration- is in charge of this service and NOAA is a branch of the US Federal Dept of trade. I felt, coming from the media attention –Katarina or Mexico gulf hurricane predictions-, emergency trends tend to be a rather centralized oriented way to solve flood issues under control of FEMA. The role model of the service and the Emergency infrastructures, options are probably attached to the particular characteristic of the population nature and the size, which FEMA is serving. Now, comparing to Holland or Bangladesh, which have different flood strategies, I would qualified more adaptative and decentralized. They helped me in a way to illustrate my flood model partly for the emergency rescue builders with a participation approach focus on decentralized forecast production units, using firstly basic local resources before applying to external assistance -as I felt more predictions need more acccess to data, in turn there is a need for more traditional investment in hard material in order to capture these software needs (for the forecast simulation) Instead - like Germany for electricity supply network (and also Bangladesh and/or Holland applying adaptation using Basic networking, I have fancied much more a model of flood fighting based on decentralized unit of forecast productions –first. I found these models more appropriate to international agenda and perhaps may avoid future bottlenecks in network Infrastructure –my viewpoint taking into account the experience of electricity supply network and energy source Diversification described in the text:  « Environment Research, Le Monde special science, Nov-Dec 2009.
  39. 39. c)Floodplan –including drinking water supply- and Health plan In principle, factors that favour diseases –germs- development are the hazards –physical, chemical and biological and their drivers: For instance, factors that can fuse germ multiplications are: -Water temperature, -Water pH and water contaminants -Germ types and behaviors (carriers and pests) -People hygiene and vaccines -People –including staffs- motivation and training -Architecture, design and urbanism of the environment -Health system performance (collectivity, private or hybrid) -Water physical appearance (cleanliness, turbidity, presence of soil) -Water flow speeds (speed up or slow down flows) -Water treatment and waste water treatment -Research & development on cross contaminations during floods -Price of medicaments and affordability during disasters -The hygiene laws, principles and guidelines and pervasions ....... - A full project Picture is about correcting all these Source of risks
  40. 40. Project Sub-goals (i) <ul><ul><li>U LTIMATE (I) : </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Answer to a need : water treatment during a flood </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Fresh water supply </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>More than one alternative to water trucking (in the WAER Project) </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>+the Pocket Water Purifier [analogous to a pocket water waste </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><li>treatment] </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>+the shopping on-line and the retail infrastructures </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>+the flood detector network for short lead-times </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>+the look-out point network targets sensible flood places </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>+the assembly bases with the warehouses: analogous to a </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><li>market place- exchange zone. </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>+the 2 oz Pocket Water Purifier drops from aircrafts </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>+the ultimate automation business engineered system: inputs, </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><li>processes and outputs </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>+the water corne handy desalination unit (from the NGO Care) </li></ul></ul></ul></ul>
  41. 41. Project Sub-goals (ii) <ul><li>Utimate Goals (II) : </li></ul><ul><li>The spate would be analogous to the US engineer Corps works. (Same spirit for civilian engineering organizations) </li></ul><ul><li>Strengthen the house an also, disease (Malaria) reduction </li></ul><ul><ul><li>« Spate engineering » helps to make water re-circulates (or prevents to go inside the house) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>+Scaffolding the house: modular scaffolds </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>+Water pumping: mechanical pumps </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>+Safety boats: pneumatic boats </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>+Aqueduc leveling: bricks and mortar </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>+Isolate the house: use of buoys filled with the flood water </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>+Use of barges: dry feet points, sanitation space, emergency evacuation </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>+Water canals: to channel flood flows or use for barges </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>+Elevation points: preparadness and shelter </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>+Raising houses: dry feet during the flood </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>+Filtration fences: stop for the unwanted materials: trees, cars…. </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>+Elevation walls: defence </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>+Digging pools: adaptation </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>+Water Piping: drain, pollution control and dryer for disease reductions </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>+Platforms and asembly bases: water purifier service either on land or at sea (or in the pond) </li></ul></ul></ul>
  43. 43. a)Lab 1: Flood type influences [rather risk orientate] (Severity, Influences on the people expectations, options and planning) Flash floods In few hours with great Impact on the water elevations River floods Water Flowing out of the river banks Monsoon Create great Damages in case of flat/ coastal countries Melting snow Surprisingly specially with climate changes Soil perviousness Influence of cities and urbanism Tidal Sea water Huge impacts on the coastal lines with possibility to penetrate far inner lands Natural disasters Giant waves With a mega flood. Also, landslides and hurricanes Man made disasters Landslides wars and dam ruptures Tsupoles Water droning … . Defences: Walls Abstracts … . Raising the house The salvation comes from the ability to be above Flood water Going against Water, Which is a fluid Mitigations: enforcement Quality, Planning … Technical preventive measures to avoid the damages Adaptations: Strategy, Waterscape, Digging … Organizing the space to live rooms for water expansion Politics, policies and police Land planning, Environmental controls, Tree planting evacuation orders … Shelters Refugees Appeals Compensations Insurances … . Human activities to help
  44. 44. b)Lab 2: Flood type influences [rather spatial orientate] Flood from the sea The Sea Inland flood from surge Rain waters River Flood Country Y Country X A river Water elevation outside the river bed flash flood Rain Country Z
  45. 45. c)Lab 3: Flood Plan (Timing) (Ref.: project flowchart slides) Base Prototype preparadness Long-term Planning (Policy, access to base) Flexible Planning (strategy Deploy ment) Instant planning (operation) -Adaptation Strategy -Long-term mitigation- Water Supply During flood Within a year (1day) 3 days Week 15 days 1 month 3 months Key symbols Capacity building Preparadness Prototyping operation Flood detector Look-out point RFID 1 to 3 years Medium Range plan S3 S2 S1 Long-term preparedness Medium term preparedness Emergency Ref.: from the flowchart
  46. 46. Preparedness cycles S1:Preparadness Long-term S2:Preparedness Medium term S3: Emergency Capacity building Need analysis And engineering Sampling Activation Production Tests M A N D A T E Forecast 25 days-to 4 months 60’ 72 hours
  47. 47. Tasks and timing of the mission works Engineering works adapted to the sufferer needs-types of contractual agreements with the customers 1-All engineering works-all around the year 2-Weekly works-emergency rescue 3-Holidays works-individual household or small communities with possibility of discounted prices 4-Dream works to cater customer needs-all phases of the project Lists of tasks : T1: MIS implementation T2: Warning Alarm/alert communication T3: Process for membership T4: Flood surveillance T5: Flood reporting and communication T6: translation T7: Business and trade T8: Preparedness for the emergency T9: Call centre, Webdesk and Telephone alert T10: kid preparedness
  48. 48. e)Lab 5: Mission plans 3 days 5 days 7 days 15 days Mon Tue Wen Thu Fri Sat Sun W1 1 day W2 W3 W4 W5
  50. 50. a)Sustainable Development (SD) SD Brundtland MDGs IWRM Copenhagen Kyoto, Rio, Johannesburg Agenda 21 Decisions
  51. 51. b)Lab 1: Brundtland Commission and Millenium Development Goals Mrs Gro Harlem Brundtland (formerly WHO Chairwoman) +Deterioration of human habitat +Our common futur +Long-term perpective for development (>2000) + UN Resolution: A/RES/38/161 +(UN GA 1983, prepares the commission) Brundtland Report : full version, it is about sustainable development and the policy change engagement for achievement, a Centre for the World balance) --Report accepted in A/Res/42/187--. MDGs: 1, 7, 8 [Ref.: Wikipedia]
  52. 52. c)Lab 2: UN-Water and the concept of Integrated Water Resource Management (IWRM) a spur a mountain crest a river course + + + + + + a sea a delta a village house a reef (or an artificial island) a lake IWRM a road Scenario case: 1 river basin=1 IWRM (Influence zone on the life of the community around the River. Comprehensive changes occurs in a package of solutions that harmonize/integrate the whole river basin activities.
  53. 53. d)The same concept applies in flood management ( Integrated Flood Management --IFM) Sea rises Spurs + + + + + Water penetrations into the land Mountains Village (Houses) IFM IWRM IFM Flood
  54. 54. e)Sustainable development - taking decisions- Cultural values Free discussion Clear decison Full support New choice Contractual Agreement (laws) Conflict zone Individual (Market) DEPENDANCE I N D E P E D A N C E More or less…. Source: High Output Management
  55. 55. Agenda 21
  57. 57. a)Lab 1: Living with floods (Waterscape orientations) Putting people over flood waters at all times Leaving water to its natural expansion river Rooms for expansion Pools Canals Parks Tunnels Artificial rivers Drains Refill aquifers -Islands -Boats -Shelter -Dry feets -Elevation houses … New architectures Tower Cathedral Water castle Light houses Scaffolders Platforms Sky scrapers … . debordement Water is a fluid, when it is blocked, water comes somewhere where it is unexpected.. Creating Dry feetconditions
  58. 58. PART B
  60. 60. a)Lab 1: The flood concept (Source: WMO flood programme) The rain Run-offs Pollutions Floods Sediments The land The river The Sea [Source adaptation: WMO Flood program] FLOOD IS GOOD FLOOD AND/OR BAD
  61. 61. b)Lab 2- Measuring run-offs and forecasting: -the hydrograph- <ul><li>Discharge curve </li></ul>Flow (cfs: cubic feet second) 2,400 0 Time (Days) Peak of the discharge (for a strench of a river) 6 Type II 24-hr Rainfall=5.20’’ Runoff Area=768.000 ac Runoff Volume=167.195 af Runoff Depth > 2.61’’ Tc=20.0min CN=75 [Source adaptation: EROSION CONTROL US WATER SURVEY] A sample of simulation for IFMA1 (Pond 3) -See slide in project WBS for explanation- Pond 2 Pond 1 Pond 3 Analogy System: pond collectors
  62. 62. c)Lab 3-The soil water infiltration capacity (« The flood laws ») Transmission zones Wetling front soil with Antecedent water context Saturated zones Water supply to soil surfaces Theoritical zonation fo to fc tc Infiltration Capacity Maximum of water Time Decline of infiltration capacity During rainfall events (Sources: Joseph Holden-(J.H.) John Anthony Allan (J.A.A.), ILEA, SIWI) Impervious surfaces due to : -urbanism, -no adaptation -unfunctional waste treatment -no trees … .. Soil structure: Cracks in the soil Soil moistures Soil texture Soil compaction … . 100km (J.H.) (J.A.A.) (ILEA) (SIWI)
  63. 63. d)Lab 4: The project reporting reference: -World Water Week 2009- Natural water features (Naturally contaminated) 100km Look-out point Best places were a watch person can contemplate a flood Directly –no technology- or with the flood indicator. Boundary land/ water feature [ More flood Indicators (sensors) in the 100 km Where the likelyhood of flood is important (Balancing act between benefits, costs for risks)] 100 km boundary A water feature (river, lake,...,sea) The pollution risk area on land Sensors on the ground help to map these Advance of the flood front and assess location and speeds (See slide on flood detector map for the redeploiement strategy of flood stations Source: World Water Week 2009 Uncertainty distance for hazards due to water flows either at subsurfaces or underground infiltrations Sensors Hazard Early Warning System Source Issue Detection
  64. 64. e)Lab 5 - Flood crisis monitor - 100km risk zone - 100km Run-off curve (normal) crisis Return to base line (Statistics) Aquifer Flood Prevention Mitigation Adaptation Engineering Works, maintenance (Time) Distances Drone flight distances June Nov Jan 0 km Sea Other networks Hh Discharge lines Flood Predicitions from forecasts (International Organizations, Weather forecasts) WAER Flood predictions (Or WAER confirmed floods Through its own network) Long lead-times Short lead-times Recommendation 1 WAER Stand-by WAER Activation Risk run-off curve (deviation) WMO, IHO, IMO Other networks Legend -WMO: World Meteorological Organization -IHO: International Hydrology Organization -IMO International Maritime Organization -Hh : house location 100km line helps to find likelyhood flood locations  installation of the look-out points Validation Model In density population areas Drone activity + Business Model [Ref: SIWI, adaptation of World Water Week 2009 Reporting-see the annex-] Dec Land
  65. 65. f)Ref.: Numbers of validations models behind the science from World Water Week 2009 +The 100 km zonation from a water feature is significant for preventing pollution damages -Ref.: Swedish Enforcement Dept, +The 2 oz Pocket Water Purifier deals with a high number of populations -Ref.:World Meteorological Organization, Flood Division, Technical Unit, in the authorization process to place my main project business component in the Integrated Flood Resource Management Helpdesk. +The blue line is a monitor curve—a sample of flood water elevation with the period of the year—it is an expectation from forecasts, a contemplation of river feature water run- offs, synonymous of river discharges at certain points in time in the wonder world free of flood disasters.What should be if mitigations were perfect to avoid negative impacts occuring during a flood (deviation curve): loss of lives, destructions of properties and the livelihood, various casualties and injuries, deathtoll increases and disease spreads up to certain deaths… + The flood seasons: assumptions are based on the hurricane starts in June in the USA and ends in Nov-Dec --Ref.: World Bank i.e. worst Hurricane in Haiti ever was end of November 2008– and, the drougth period in Phillipines is between January and May of the year —Ref.: WMO and the dam discharges in the Phillipines.
  66. 66. h)Lab 7: Environmental significance of the 100 km boundary zone of water features 100 km boundary zones of water features are likely to be impacted more severely by pollutions. Aquifer/sub-surface waters can travel far away enough from their original sources with good soil facilitation Factors: infiltration capacity, structures, perviousness and soil surfaces. Floodwaters infiltrated into the land combines their pollutions with the ones carried by natural water courses during normal conditions. Loads of pollutants are: the soil unwanted materials, germs, others… Flood events are the most common disaster (with the highest predictability), still predictions are unreliable. For instance, if there is a strong rain, an earthquake, the municipality water supply disruption,…most places – except in places with serious flood indicators -- have no reliable flood plan and cannot control them. The pollution context in 100 km risk zone, add ambiguity to the cultural aspect of flood. For such reasons, the importance of good quality predictions has a higher significance in the 100 km . Physical Chemical Biologocal Types of Pollutions GS RADJOU
  67. 67. i)Lab 8: important remark on the 100 km (flood is good, flood is bad) Normally, the flood prone regions and floods are very relevant to the development of most country economies (GDP). In principle, the soil natural sedimention process due to flood run-off waters contain the natural ingredients for the soil fertilization. It is a crucial/trivial cultural agreement/ingredient for flood sediment inputs for small or large farms (Ref.: FAO, UNDP, WMO…). With the increase pressure of development drivers, pollutions with floods are complex and impacting traditional mode of productions. In the project, the flood water will never be as good as willing so, thus supply of fresh water sources are very likely to be contaminated by the fertilizers –and also, artificial pollutants- The rational assumption is water supply unfit for the human consumption during a flood. And, if there is no evidence based policies that secondary sources are well mitigated, all waters in the flood prone region are perillous to drink. The project business case is an alternative way to supply drinking water in emergency conditions. Thus, making the 100 km zonation irrelevant for drinking water.
  69. 69. a)Project strategy THE IDEA IS A LEVERAGE SYSTEM THAT SPEEDS UP AND INTRODUCE SOME SHORT-CUTS INTO THE SUPPLY OF FRESH WATER DURING EXTREM WEATHER/HYDROLOGY CONDITIONS LIKE A HURRICANE, FLOODS… Starting point of the strategy + Rare are the cases when you can move people outside their cities during a flood predicted time. (because lead-times are always uncertain –nearly, and emergency evacuations when started are never 100% successfull at completion). + The municipality water supply is disrupted and water trucking cannot go to deliver fresh water to citizen at risk of flood. +Harvesting water from wells or other water alternatives are impossible. + We have to realize than nobody can stay without drinking over 3 days. People would not stand alone and refrain drinking dirty water. Vision : World free of water poisoning during a flood. Statements : reduction of death tolls and maalria reduction in the aftermath of the flood. Development based on mission organizations. Missions : +More than one alternative to water trucking and emergency +Building green and the sustainable environment +facilitate the water flow through adaptative strategies +Use of modular scaffold to improve infrastructures
  70. 70. LOCAL BASE SIDE (DRONE) FLOOD SIDE (IFM) Retailing structure Energy Power Supply Households WAER WATER AERO EMERGENCY RELIEF (WAER) COUNTRY ASSISTANCE MODEL Local (Or Parcel delivery On-line Shopping) 2 oz Pocket water purifier b)Partnering for retail infrastructures & trade Traditional purchase, supply and delivery system Capacity building (IF 1, NO 2) Order Supply Flood detector Assembly base Data collection MIS MIS Delivery GS RADJOU 1 2 RELIABILITY PRINCIPLE
  71. 71. LOCAL MANAGEMENT INFORMATION SYSTEM HOUSEHOLDS MIS MIS W.A.E.R. MIS BASE SIDE HOUSEHOLD SIDE c)Plant partnering for flood information system MIS : -Internet access -Computer -Mobile phone -Flood detector -RFID … Existence of a MIS community Capacity building Boundary
  72. 72. WAER ACTIVATION MIS MIS RETAILING ON-LINE SHOPPING ENERGY POWER SUPPLY FLOOD SEASON Households d)Country activity break-down structures flood Capacity building Flood Management Information System (FMIS) MIS boundary Assistance cell Country cell
  73. 73. WAER IN STAND-BY QUIET SITUATION HOUSEHOLDS ARE NOT AT RISK OR THE FORECAST HAS NOT BEEN YET CONFIRMED WATER TRUCKING COMPARING NPV > 0 OF BOTH SYSTEMS CHOICE ? e)More than one alternative to supply fresh water Drone In principle, water trucking is disabled during a flood disaste and WAER is enabling the fresh water Capacity building
  74. 74. f) Firm organization Air IFM zones water Drone Assembly base Flood detector Parcel delivery On-line shoping Trade Domestic Spate Tree planting Pipes (Soft, hard) reservoir Scaffolds Water pumps House elevation Stone Aqueduc Look-out points Forecast no detector Walls GPS Camera Phone RFID Internet Telecom. Depart. Geography Retailing WAER MULTINATIONAL: MULTI PRODUCT/SERVICE BUSINESS BLOBAL CORPORATE, BUT NOT A CONGLOMERATE --ONLY ONE BUSINESS WATER SUPLLY DURING A FLOOD-- Executive Board Finance Non executive board Inter national Project Technology Orthodox Non Orthodox Disaster and hazards Insurance Assessment CSR Hub Technical Barges Canals Project components
  76. 76. a)The basic of production Operational Drone ready Manufacturing flows Selling process Inputs Progress Drone assemble with water purifiers Prepredness Flood ? Alert confirmed Pre-alert Assembly Warehouse Drone Water purifier Preparedness Prediction (6-7 days) (60’ responsiveness In day 0 of the preparedness) Assembly authorized order selling prospect Drone Flights 2 oz pocket water purifier/ good quality drops Flood identified zone Households Drinking water Water trucking disabled Forecast (deliverable: weather bulletin) Production on forecast demands Control/Monitor zone Deliverable (happy people) A project starts with a deliverable and finisheswith a deliverable. Manufacturing flow is the project operation Output Inputs Materials Labors Data Flood MIS Base Look-out Points (IFM) ‘ flood
  77. 77. b)The Project Life Cycle (Preparedness and Emergency) Project starts Project ends Meeting Investment decision Gas phase R & D of the business system +Flood forecasts +Flood mitigations +Scaffold resistance +Lead-times +alternatives +project benchmarks +project funding +project equity Decisions Growth Time Birth date development phase Maturity phase Death phase decaying phase ascent phase launch phase NPV>0, project viability Planning the project Execution Directing the project
  78. 78. c)Project Product PLC 2 oz Pocket Water Purifier Modular scaffolds ULM Balloon Helicopter Drone Delta wing Assembly Launcher Supports Car Scooter Bike Truck Van Rails Aircraft carrier Air drop products Sea drop products Canoe Boat Raft Speed boat Water bike Water scooter Local stores On-line shopping Household purchase Fresh water During a flood Before flooding During flooding 2 4 4 1 2 6 4 Tracks n° Hydrocraft Hoovercraft Water scooter Water cycle
  79. 79. d)Sustainable development (CSR&Change Management) Initial stage Indirect Direct old Combining system (reliance on both for a while) new Transitory period Final choice Business Engineering System that could match environment and regulation for changes constraints Time Help to Understand The choice Of the technology Linked with The sustainability development Economy, society and the environment Firm choices T-2 T-1 T-0 c’’ c<c’<c’’ c’ c
  80. 80. e)The building a flood process Data Centres UNDP Flood zones Sustainable World National Governments Spates UN UN- Habitat Centre for the World Balance: focus on flood zones ABS
  81. 81. SECTION II
  82. 82. PART A:
  83. 83. A1-MANDATE
  84. 84. a)Ref case: Haiti, Nov 2008 –Worst flood in a century ever- Worldbank grants/IDA financing the recovery
  85. 85. b)WAER Project Mandate (1) (PROJECT BASE LINE BUDGET FOR THE FIRST YEAR IN OPERATION) <ul><li>Project estimate for the first year is a projected amount based on the number of water related disaters. This is the base-line budget for the initial investment during the 1rst year for the 10.000 « base-vies » also called segements, bases or platforms and look-out points . These contain the following components: drones, 2 oz water purifiers and the daily overheads and costs for running the project (items). </li></ul><ul><li>Cost of 2 oz water purifier: $10 </li></ul><ul><li>Cost of a drone: $30 </li></ul>Revenues in multiple of 250 million (Source: Sample estimate based on multinational earnings. For instance, Walmart 2 first quaters net profit in 2009 Equalled $1.5 billion
  86. 86. c)WAER Project Mandate (2) - Millenium Development Goals (MDGs) -Based science -Sustainable development -Environmental change -Energy conservation -Bio-diversity -Job creations -Innovation -Crisis integration: finance and disaster -Park development: flood zone, planting trees and clean water -Geneva zones: flood zone improvement for protection of women and kids -Partnerships -Task force: EAP (Eastern Europe, Caucasus and central Asia (Note in EUWI EU Water Initiative) -Tax, trade and transfer. … .
  89. 89. a)People needs (1) Psychology Security/safety Society Self-Esteem Actualization Old theories based on fears from bottom-up to top down fxplains people needs and drivers of our behavioral motivations Modern theories explain there is no only one unique way into the need Pyramid. It is illustrated with lots examples in life: money, water…
  90. 90. b)People needs (2) + It is an engineering need : it is about the component one would need to ensure the project success. It is going beyond the 2 oz pocket water purifier only (single project). +In order to drink water. Users may need the water purifier--of course– but firstly, before drinking the water, one should ensure, the household is not drowning, for instance the flood sufferer has a senior house. It does not crumble with the flood flow. +The 2 oz Pocket Water Purifier is directing the project (cut people thirst within 72 hours of the flood arrival time and refraining people to drink dirty water within this period of time). + Also, how do you market the need …. It is the Portofolio project management that would answer this question in the WAER project. So, there are lots of business components –products and services- to satisfy fresh water supply needs. My favorite solutions are on next slide and they are composing the ultimate goal of the WAER project
  91. 91. Water needs in town and field during a flood. Engineering needs required : A- single project : drop of pocket water purifiers to cut people thirst in a safe way. B- Portofolio project : it may not be enough to ensure that people do get access to fresh water, WAER needs to contribute more than just drops to help: ensure people are safe ideally look after maturity of their houses (senior houses) and the presence of an MIS for communication purpose. Pocket water purifier drops still required during the emergency. c)The business case
  92. 92. d)The project goals Ensure : self-sufficience reliance and independance when facing flood adversities based on the sustainable strategies. Also, achievement of the MDG and the building of a new urbanism (the adaptation strategies and the mitigations) cooping with flood in the 21rst century.
  93. 93. e)The projects of various organizations Demand for Assistance Providers of Flood products and Services The Flood Platform WAER PROJECT FLOOD DIVISION WMO Weather/Hydrology FORECASTS (Bulletins,…) Assumption: easy distinction, but not so strict, as all of them needs each others: evidence based: global changes; environment, finance,… NOAA is a branch Of the US Dept of commerce WMO: provider of weather/hydrology services to individuals/ businesses Project components: Deliverables Forecast Networks IFR HelpDesk Bases Look-out points
  95. 95. c)Deliverables Weather/Hydrology deliverables Bulletins Outlooks Warnings Forecasts Country Executive Organization deliverables Country president speech Federal states executive orders Emergency Evacuation orders UN/UN related Organisations resolutions Peace keeping forces MINUTASH Appeals Various deliverables during a water hazard (Source: internet) Construction Utility Permit
  96. 96. d)Mailing list from my own network People participation (prospectives, contacts, partnerships) UN Firms Fondation Others WMO Flood division UNDP World Bank US Federal Governments IBM Water Rockyfeller Education FEMA Geology Survey SIWI IIM MBA CNAM Pole Emploi Cadres Including: 2 oz Pocket Water purifier and Technology Pole against tsunamis WHO ITDG U.K. Taxes Abbey bank Friends Starting from (The tsunami* in South East Asia– December 26 th , 2004) Like a flood, a tsunami is a giant wave with a mega flood. I have already described, in various papers, a technology against tsunamies (Ref.: SIWI 2007-08 and CNAM University and the following contacts)
  97. 97. PART B
  99. 99. a)Product Base Planning Product Base Planning Product Breakdown Structures Work Breakdown Structures Flow Diagram
  100. 100. b)Lab 1: Project Product for Break Down Structures (P.B.S.) Drones 2 oz Pocket Water Purifier Flood detectors Assembly bases M.I.S. P.B.S. (Main components) Look-out points Retails and On-line shopping Electro Mechanical Nuclear Gauging Speed Self False Dry feet
  101. 101. c)Lab 2: PBS definitions
  102. 102. d)Project P.B.S. types PBS Single Intermediate Integration Grouping 2 oz Pocket water purifier Typhoon season Planting trees Water aerator machine Water droning Supply chain Flood detection network Households’ Flood Information System Strategy access to bases Detection buoys Flood detectors Flood data stations Drone launchers Mobile phone camera Internet (landline, wi-fi) Retail infrastructure/ trade capacity Civilian Flood platforms
  103. 103. e)Single project It is called single project because the project it-self cannot be breakdown further The business system engineering of the project is about supplying fresh water during a flood: +either directly through the use of the 2 oz pocket water purifier , +or indirectly , in addition flying objects (drones, helicopters, balloons, Ultra light motorized, wings…) will support the delivery. --Also, speed boats in the case accessing to flood zone is through river corridors-- of the 2 oz Pocket Water Purifiers to users. Still, the main product remains 2 oz pocket water purifier, which can be found at the local store, on-line shopping before the flood predicted arrival time, or with the drone Delivered during emergnecy situations (flash floods, hurricanes, unpredictable floods…. A sample of practice for the flood preparadness if the house can crumble under the flood: water reserve and food for 3 days, a secure safety boat for the emergency evacuation, safety blankets to keep warm, safety belt, plastic sheet to protect the boat against the rain water inflitration, a pot to clear the excess water from the boat, a rope to tighten the Boat to a fix point…--non exhaustive list--
  104. 104. f)Integration
  105. 105. g)Grouping
  107. 107. a)Lab 1: PBS- 2oz Pocket Water Purifier- H2O H2O Bacteria A Bacteria D Bacteria B Bacteria C (Global Architecture and Specification) Plastic case Active part Hazardous water side User’s mouth side Manufacturer Claims Claim 1 Claim 2 Claim 3 Claim 4 Digesting process Water waste treatment principle Water hazards eats Legend: Bacteria eats eats eats eats Hazards Bacteria D- eats Bacteria C -eats Bacteria B -eats Bacteria A- eats hazards Bacteria Levels Level A Level B Level C Level D Single Project
  108. 108. b)Performance: 2oz Pocket Water Purifier (Interface specification) Flood water 2oz Pocket water purifier Sufferer can’t refrain to drink dirty water During 72 hours This time the water purifier saved his life The water purifier helped him to re-discover the loss water quality. The 2oz pocket water purifier Placed on the water cycle, as it is cleaning The water, it is a real pocket waste treatment during the flood Clouds
  109. 109. c)Drinking water supply - Water Safety Health Plan (Global architecture) ( Source: WHO internet) Water Resource And sources Treatment Drinking System Consumer system Structure assessment Monitoring Management communication All these components are in WAER project 2 oz Pocket Water Purifier Water sources Drinking system treatment Consumer system
  110. 110. III-PBS: THE DRONES
  111. 111. Drone base definition An effective drone base equals: Compulsory items (flood data measures are outsourced) - Item 1 : a drone launch pad : a small size real estate, vehicule or vessel equipped with a drone launcher, - Item 2 : a warehouse to shelter/keep water purifiers and basic recoding tools and The drone operator dash board and computer and radio transmittor, - Item 3 : the flood station to send flood signals captured by the flood detectors, Transmitted by long distance RFID in order to activate the drone launches Additional -Item 4: the flood detector (flood data measures are insourced) Note 1: Flood detectors can be replaced by the look out points. These are special elevation features, artificials or natural equipped with RFID. Flood Detection means or an observator –flood watch person– could anticipate without technology the likelihood of a flood (forecast without technology) Note 2 : A base (grounded) can be replaced with a mobile vector (indirect for the water purifier: a truck, a car, a train, a boat for the drone Launchers or indirect incase water purifiers are dropped from an helicopters or transported by shuttle or speed boats to households)
  112. 112. PBS for a drone (Easy one!) (Terrain Identification Equipment In-board drone) (Drone Inboard Global positioning System) An Optical Flux system Real Drone (it owns inboard navigational devices) False Drone (non autonomous) Drone* (flying robot) *Also known as unmanned aircraft (Ground floor Radio Control Equipment) (Help of operators to assist the flight)
  113. 113. IV-PBS & GLOBAL ARCHITECTURE: RIFD (Easy one!)
  114. 114. a) A definition & history of the RFID 1-Definition - RFID : R adio F requency Id entification. Also, synonymous of tagging. -Nano technologies (using radio wave frequencies) -For the: ->emission, ->transmittion and, ->detection of signals The code bar is the simplest one -for identifying objects/carriers with RFID- (tagging) 2-History : Code bar: use to track a mobile living being by emissions of radio waves (ref.: internet) Other places of randomization of code bar: items (fruit juices, cloths…) in stores are marked (identified) with RFID tags 3-Samples of RFID products -Code bar –passive tagging- -Ingecom RFID -Model IP 65 aquaproof
  115. 115. b) The tagging Principle <ul><li>The carrier of the tag can be identify by: </li></ul><ul><li>+ the receiver (tag controller) during a transmission process. It is either passive if the bearer pass is just reflecting the tag controller identification signal. The bearer tag can be self power with its own identifcation ( active tagging) and energy supply. </li></ul><ul><li>+ mission box , active part have the same electronic performance and characteritics when supplying the radio waves. </li></ul>
  116. 116. c)Lab 1: the code bar PBS
  117. 117. d)Lab 2: the code bar - global architecture- <ul><li>Interface specifications </li></ul><ul><li>Tagging people or object: purpose: tracking device using </li></ul><ul><li>Performance specifications </li></ul><ul><li>nano technologies; 2.45 GHz </li></ul><ul><li>Technology 0.18 micrometer CMOS with no energy </li></ul><ul><li>consumption nearly. </li></ul><ul><li>It helps the miniaturization and low power performance. </li></ul><ul><li>Cell life duration: 4 years </li></ul>
  118. 118. e) Lab 3: Ingecom product (product scope) <ul><li>INGECOM product, </li></ul><ul><li>Controlleur Tag Actif 2.45 GHZ </li></ul><ul><li>trading firm : </li></ul><ul><li>Nomadic solutions, </li></ul><ul><li>1015 rue du Marechal Juin </li></ul><ul><li>– ZI Vaux le Penil, 77000 Melun </li></ul><ul><li>1-PBS </li></ul><ul><li>2 parts of the tag controller : </li></ul><ul><ul><li>A fiix-active part e.g a transponder box emitting the radio wave recognition signal, and </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>A mobile part is called the interrogator- e.g. a credit card or badge shape responding to the </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>active part signal emission (identification) within the RFID electromagnetic environment distance. </li></ul></ul><ul><li>2-Global architecture </li></ul><ul><ul><li>In fact, the transponder box is like a hotspot –analogous to the wi-fi pole for the internet waves – </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>It is radiating RFID waves in the surrounding environment. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Short distance RFID emissions are powered within a distance range of 30-50 meters. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Interrogator parts are not just reflecting the transponder –passive component- signal, but they </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>can produce their own identification signals –active interrogator- </li></ul></ul>
  119. 119. f) Ingecom product -Detailed global architecture- <ul><li>Performance specification </li></ul><ul><li>Dim : 126x104x28 mm, </li></ul><ul><li>alimentation: 5-12 V CD, 100mA </li></ul><ul><li>Bandweight : ( 2.4GHZ-2.48GHZ , no licensing fees, international coverage) </li></ul><ul><li>Temperature of utilization : between –10 and 55°C (In operation) and –40 and 70°C (storage temperature). </li></ul><ul><li>Interface specifications </li></ul><ul><li>Health : limit to human exposure to electromagnetism field. </li></ul><ul><li>Compatibility : WIFI, GSM, Bluetooh, DECT with no perturbation </li></ul><ul><li>Application : Tracking, medical use, animal tagging, detection networks, airports, hydroelectricity and nuslear power plants, supply chain, stock management, geo location, security. </li></ul><ul><li>Current applications : </li></ul><ul><li>chips, road tolls with no stops, park entrances… </li></ul>
  120. 120. g) Model IP65/aquaproof (product scope) <ul><li>RFID Model IP65/Aquaproof </li></ul><ul><li>(active tagging) : </li></ul><ul><li>1- PBS : </li></ul><ul><li>Badge shape or credit card shape. </li></ul><ul><li>2- Performance specifications </li></ul><ul><li>Detection range: 30-50 meters </li></ul><ul><li>Cost : reduce and the size, also. </li></ul><ul><li>3-Interface specifications </li></ul><ul><li>Working environment </li></ul><ul><li>Works in highly constraint environment </li></ul><ul><li>(walls, metal, water,…, hostile waves). </li></ul>[Ref: internet]
  121. 121. h)Long distance RFID The use of screen antenae increases the power of transmission
  122. 122. i)Lab 2: RFID Global architecture Flood Management Information System Long transmittance detector via RFID or cable or internet The choices of linkage between a flood prone region and the households will depens on the type of Management Information System (MIS) and their connectivity with the environment. Regulatory roles of national/government trade and telecom departments in facilitating the technology development to protect their citizens. Anyway, I think such system efficiency would be based on: -wifi -telephone -access to bases -detector facilities -computer networks -television -RFID … .
  123. 123. j)Household MIS/Flood Detection Network Service (Global architecture) Mobile Phone Camera Flood detector Flood base RFID Socio-media event Water quality Water speed Water elevation Treament Internet Computer Broadband GPS Visual data Flood context capture F L O O D Water station Drone base Households Flood process World Meteorological Organization Network Weather and hydrology forecasts RFID hydrology forecast Network service Network powered with nanotechnologies, mobile phone cameras, internet, wi-fi and GPS for flood event captures/media
  125. 125. a)Lab 1: PBS - Flood Indicator Components- (Active parts) Water flows Rotating wheel beam A float Water ascent Float mobilization Up-lift Vertical rotating wheel configuration
  126. 126. b)PBS: Flood Indicator components (distal parts- (Cyclometer type) Rotating wheel Detector mast (pole) bottom To top beam Side slopes 3.6m/s mA Speedometer Mode A (Speed) Mode C (Elevation) Aluminium pole Cables Also, wireless Configuration (RFID) Flood height Sited in the house environment Cyclo computer Internet GPS Mobile Data centers x=vt RFID H (cm) Mode B (Time) -Clock -Chrono
  127. 127. c)PBS: flood indicator components (Performance and interface specifications) mast Wheel Stand Solar Panel Cell battery RFID Box For signal transmittance Flood computer Power Cable Data cable Cell -Speed -Elevation -time -location WAER PLAN Flood detector Configuration With a solar panel A stand And a vertical rotating wheel Warning system Flow
  128. 128. d)Lab 1: PBS - Flood Indicator, fixing ends and stands: various configurations - Modular scaffolds A rotating wheel -with palettes- moves up and down when the flood flow tides Various configurations for the ground part of the Detector mast Mast (tube) b) A stand shape for flat surfaces a) Cone shape to (Pick the earth soil) c) Nailing on a piece of wood To a computer For speed and Water elevation Transmittance uses the RFID. Wheel Palettes Mast (or pole) Configuration management Tide down Tide up
  129. 129. e)New versions and configurations for the flood detectors Empty tube section with a ruler bottom To top Float Flood water flows penetrating inside the tube through the window section lift a float. The water elevation in the tube can be read manually or electronically Ball Ascent Increasing layers of water is an Indication of the flood arrival Ruler stick Ho H2 Water ascent Ground: initially without water Calibrated Stones with Light Electoluminescent Diods (LED) for flood night detections The disappearance of the stone light means that water Subsurface reached the warning level New configurations New versions H1 H2>H2>H1 New versions
  130. 130. f)Lab 3: New configuration of flood indicators a water level subsurface a float a water feature bed ° a fix a variable line With the water elevation a rising flag as an indicator shows the importance of the flood safe low high medium danger Water tucking Water droning Flood Tsunami 0 1 2 3 4
  131. 131. g)Flood Indicator (New version) Gamma source Receptor transmittance Signal transmission Flood water h Signal strength Linked to gamma numbers New version The dash line represents the receptor support Cable or RFID for long Transmitance Signals: N(t) (Radio waves, RFID, internet, GPS..) Geiger comptor principle: Detection of number impact N(t) = k (h) on the receptor is a variable of the flood water thicknesses (h) To data centres for analysis, Forecasts and Decision making
  132. 132. PART C
  135. 135. b)Lab 2: Flood Indicator / global architecture (Interface specification ) Flood Indicator House RFID transmission 30m-50m Alimentation: Solar energy Flood In development Sited in the garden Security zone (x) Possible Solution: WAER Preparedness (needs) Emergency-Evacuation (needs) x=v.t t=x/v Solution planning Hh Hf Hf-Hh= 30 to 50m Data captures
  136. 136. c)Lab 3: House unit coordinates (Look-out points) D µ H O d H=dsinµ D=dcosµ Tgµ=H/D tgµ = sin µ/cosµ [0<µ<90°] House height (Hh ) Hmax D’ H’ H’Hmax = HHh = tgµ OD’ OD _______ __ ___ __
  137. 137. d)Lab 4: The flood detector and the slope influence Land 100km Flood detector h1 h2 h3 H0=h0 HM Hm H Risk areas RM Rm R d0 d1 d2 d3 100% Safe Conclusion : as long as the house is in the safety zones: no worry a bout flood whatever the season. The house location is function of the season: Hh > Hf and detector not too far from The house. 100km is relevant only if the soil is flat HM: Maximum water Hm:Minimum water H :Average water elevation Hf:Flood elevation Hh:House location Di=hi, with i=1,2,3 house Location (hi) & detector Location (di) with 30-50 Meters variation for the RFID House 100% secure Boundary* 100% safe House at risk depending on the flood water elevation and the house mitigations: walls, piloti, fencing,… Max. risk Min. risk Average risk d0: Flood calibration (Ref:point, GPS location) water Tower zone Piloti house New urbanism Floating house 100% safe House mitigations Low Medium High *Except for flood prone regions
  138. 138. e)Lab 5: The extrem scenarios Saint Michael Mount bay Sea: water elevation at the speed of a horse (60 km/h) Maximum risk house Owner needs a perfect mitigation Himalayian mountains Flood safe house Water rises (8km/h) but the house is safe being located on the mountain slope No need of particular flood mitigations except building high In the mountain Out of reach house The flood trajectory is not a strait line. The real –apparent- flood speed in direction and intensity combines various speed components to culminate to the horse race speed-60 km/h-
  139. 139. A sample of Speeds Body or system Speed (average) walking 10 km/hour (average human walk) Cycling 20 km/hour (flat road) Tsunamy 40km/hour (near the coast) St Michael Mount 60km/hour (Horse race speed) Escape road 80km/hour (From a hazard source)
  140. 140. f)Lab 6: Flood Indicator locations (Global architecture) Along a road (combines with lamp post New version) River bed Crossing a road ( New version 2 ) X=Water elevation µ:time to travel in the water Laser or doppler detection Equation 2 2(d+x) = c[t+µ] d : pole length t : time to travel in the air Equation set 1 D-d= X T=2 (t+µ) c (or v) : speed of light (or sound (doppler)) T : measure between two signals (d,t) Signals 1 2 T Interface specifications In-house Flood indicator Outdoor flood detectors (New version 1) Colorimetry detection (Computer reading in both cases) Cable or RFID transmittance, Also sattelite detection with GPS Flood New versions Based on light waves: 1-the water colometry analysis (opto density: the water thickness) is an indicator of the water depth-elevation- in some cases. 2- Water elevation measures directly -telemetry- the water level
  141. 141. g)Lab 7: Risk drivers (a tool for assessment) (A sample of flood detection influences for forecasts with very reduced lead-times and very fast response) Discharge (flood elevation) Terrain slopes House location Presence of a detector Time Speed Competitors: Increase lead-times Use of software modelling 1 Zone A : Importance of Discharge (6), detector Location (6) and time (ease to solve a flood issue)– easy zone Slopes (2) and house location (2) are minor Flood speed likely to be Medium (3) Discharge : water elevation, strength Location : proximity to the water Time : influenced by the quality of the solution to flood …. In this case it is risky: Flood risk and rupture of water supply, vital For livelyhood and properties flood detector location, senior house with piloti or mitigation. Preparedness for emergency evacuation/water supply individual food ration/safety boat Causes Problems Impacts Zone:importance of slopes only House on a mountain (6.5). It is not at risk-- if not the house is in a flood prone zone = likelihood of danger. For intance a house with a (1) indice House highly perched on the top of a valley slope 2 3 4 5 6 the driver indice For the event intensity The driver type 6 6 5 2 2 For instance: case Zone D
  142. 142. h)Lab 8: Prediction horizon-lines Long range Short-term predictions F O R E C A S T S 6 months to 1 year 1, 2 and 3 years  5-6 years 1 day 3 days 5 days 1 week 1 month Function organization Mission organization Weather Hydrology Medium range
  144. 144. a)Lab 1: Level curves and flood indicator distribution: -the best scenario location- profile A profile B Hm HM Detectors Land sub-surface profiles (topography) 100 km H 0 Plan Profile curves Ho Ho Influence of 100 km Recommendation zone River course Good Water Elevation Average line d 0 dm d Safety beam (100km) Level curve (Profile A) d ’ d’ m d’0 Projection Terrain profile 0 [Ref.note: Spot satellite detection accuracy is 2.5 meters] Profile B
  145. 145. b)Lab 2: PBS: The best location for a flood detector: In search of the look-out points R+ R° Level curve Profile A Hh: house location Hx+=Hx°+dx Hy+=Hy°+dy Hz+=Hz°+dz d µ 100km d0 Hh dM dm Hh 100 km safety range (Likelihood of a pollution zone from a water feature) Radar lectures at various range distances of the water elevations o R° House In danger Flood can be prevented if there is a flood detector And/or mitigations Flood increases and detections Give: speed, timeand distance with RFID mapping d0 dm d dM Flood detectors at various distances: H min, H int., H max The frontline for the rising flood water. The inundation is between 100 km and the d0 Distance line. from the house inside The 100 km zone Flood frontline detectors d
  148. 148. Linkages between flood protections (Personal projects) Technology pole Against tsunami Flood detection mission organized Giant floods Up to 20 meters Speed of the flood –Tsunamy- when crushing the coat line 40 km/hour Detection and warning ten kilometers before the coastline. Emergency evacuation –running fast- towards the Technology pole against tsunamies. Protection system is a 15 minutes emergency preparedness to insumersible safety boats. In approach, they are analogous to those boats found. in Disneyland Parks or the Queen mary safety boats. Capacity: 50 people. The structure is totally covered and waterproof. Boats are attached –linked- to a very high poles (40 meters)-like those found in highways or football stadiums. The cable –like those used for jumping-- are a mix of elastic cable with the property to amortize the crash between the tsunamy wave and the tsunamy safety boat. Flood stations for data communication with civilian protection units Flood detectors based on the use of local resources at look-out points for floodf warning and forecasting coupled to the flood stations with RFID and personal technologies: internet wireless, the mobile phone camera…. The platdorm for water droning. modular scaffolds fixed/raising with the flood elevation. Civilian protection can be extended by using the adap- tation strategies and re- organizing the flood space with buildings analogous to water castles, lighthouses, cathedral architectures, old market places as elevation points-dry feet assembly zones) for civilian protection against flood
  149. 149. I-Civilian protections against floods
  150. 150. PROJECT PLATFORM CONCEPT SCAFOLDING ARCHITECTURE/ PIPES OF VARIOUS SIZES AND STRUCTURES FLOOD Lab1:The Flood Platform: various scaffolds of different sizes Scaffolds: pipes of different Sizes and diameters give more Versatility to the flood architecture Either for strenghteneing a house of Building an instant waste treatment to drain water, or making drone launchers. Modular scaffolds Look-out points Drone bases Water platform House strenghtener Flood detection Launcher station Flood protection House consolidation Vertical scaffold Horizontal Scaffold (waste treatment-pipes) Foundation N
  151. 151. PIPES CLIPS Modular scaffolds (Quick fixing point)
  152. 152. Modular Scaffold (Versatile fixing point) -New configuration- The build-up components for the new architecture –scaffolds and nail scaffolds-- in order to make the house resilient to the flood flow-. Also, modular scaffolds help to make instant elevation points (dry-feet zones) for an affordable price. Pieces of metallic tubes (scaffolds) fixed together or on the bed rock or the house, put people above the flood water like reffinery –oil- platforms Metallic tube (scaffolds) The kneel (gripping part of the scaffold) Scaffold nail A hole in the kneel A ring with holes give 360° flexibility to The flood architecture The scaffold nail into the kneel hole (ring) achieve and maintain rigidity between scaffolds And the flood body architecture A Scaffold 5 m - 10 m kneel
  153. 153. Attachs to fix points: walls, poles… + Supporting body (wall) Scaffold (pipe) screws ( Section view) Scaffold (Axis) (Profile view) To the body architecture (the platform) Bed rock
  154. 154. Scaffolds Liasing with the board + hooks + Horitonzal scaffold Vertical scaffold Hooks + Board (Z) (Z) (Z’) (Z’) (H) (H’)
  155. 155. The flood platform for civilian protection Space lived for flood flows 5m 10m 15m Quick and affordable elevation Points in flood prone regions Kneel and nails Bed rock A wall Details in Slide 137 Scaffold branch Details in Slide 138 Details of the grips
  156. 156. Raising Platform House: elevation house Mini-base for the drones Elevation points Assembly point Refuge-shelter Look-out point Watch Forecasts Flood elevation Flood Indicator for alternative Aids: WAER, Water trucking Local Flood detector RFID GPS Pole Internet GPS Drone + Water purifier computer Mobile phone USB key Cloud technology Optical Flux Assembly Base Surge rain My answer: choice The flood platform
  157. 157. Architecture for important floods – over 10 meters-- Goal : Rendering people more reliant, self-sufficient and independant. Sub-goal 1: Completion of flood adaptation strategies (advocated by ILEA the dutch water architecture and others and various schools, which philosophy orientations are to leave water floods to their natural expansions In digging pools, raising houses/villages with flood tides, building on elevation points or using the fengshui philosophy instead of building walls Sub-goal 2 : Keep a middle trend between adaptation strategies and raising villages in order to get dry feet points during an important flood by changing our representation of ancient buildings like urban/villages cathedrals/ churches, water castles, lighthouses that are vanishing from the countryside landscape for more up to date technologies and organize them for new roles like safety buildings during important floods. (All these building are proeminent buildings, strong and big enough to be assembly building during a flood rescue at predicted arrival times.
  158. 158. New developments for the project (16/12/09) -Ref.: Jean Taricat, Histoires d’architecture, Dessin de Jacques Ziegler, Editions Parenthèses, p.48-- Divisions harmoniques d’un segment de droite 1/2 1/2 2/3 1/3 1/3 2/3 1/4 3/4
  159. 159. New developments for the project (16/12/09)- adaptation from:(Ref.: Jean Taricat, Histoires d’architecture, Dessin de Jacques Ziegler, Editions Parenthèses, p.48) Alberti, proportion de la loge Ruccelai (Florence) d H=9d Modular order: ideally the height is a multiple of the corresponding column diameter kD D k=1,…,n n c N Platform d kd
  160. 160. New developments for the project (16/12/09) (Adaptations from: Ref.: Jean Taricat, Histoires d’architecture, Dessin de Jacques Ziegler, Editions Parenthèses, p.80) A 11 m A A A/2 A/2 A 22 m B B 1 2 3 4 5 6 8 7 The dry feet platform Above the flood water Are towering like islands Surrounding with coral Reefs. People will find a safe flood place at the top of high building like churches, cathedrals or ancient market Places. The building undernith allows water flows to circulate while The top stores (over the water play the role of sheltering floors. Connections between wings of various buildings can Be entirely with the use of Modular scaffolds. (analogous to ancient Market places. Note: whole safety zones could be built with modular scaffolds.
  161. 161. Civilian protection against flood: The water castle. Water castle part (receiving humanes) During a flood Water castle foot Perhaps some castle could be Empty from their natural Water before the flood predicted Arrival. To shelter humans at risk of flood. It means That community castle would Have a system to pump out The water before flood. Stairs Sheltering room: 50 people or more
  162. 162. Island development Flood prone region The flood water (innundation) Safety island (dry feet zone) river The Building of a canal is a trap for water Little bridge island bridge Canal (with more or less a drain)
  163. 163. The light house tower Flood subsurface Lighthouse Entrance door (under water During the flood) road Water elevation 4 th floor window
  166. 166. a)Lab 1: Basic description of the river bed compartments Land surface River bed rbs H 0 (average elevation) River section H 0 min H 0 max Land surface Flow (m3/s) = river section x velocity= (H0) x (w) x (d) Canal width (w) river 1s H 0 w d River bed rock River channel strand
  167. 167. b)Lab 2: Hypothetical river regimes (discharges) H 0 H 0 min H 0 max Time Elevation [H = E(t)] Drougth season Wet season annual mean Jan- Dec- Calendar Equatorial river discharge Tropical river discharges Flood line June E(t)
  169. 169. a)Lab 1: The real work is on tHARhe flood line 90°-- Flood detectors located every 20km, at a specific time frequency gives: the flood water elevation. It is the vertical speed of the flood. 90° ½ village 100km 80km 60km 40km 20km 0km river H (elevation) 5m 2m 2.5m 5m 1m The flood average travel is 10km/h on line 90°. At 6 am, the flood frontline was at 40 km from the village. Flood elevation recorded at that time was 1 meters –local detection using the flood detectors. At 8 am, the flood frontline reached a lowest peak. It means the flood receeded during the Last 4 hours before reaching the village. Certainly it was a flash flood of 2 hours away from the village. Detection 2 Detection 1 0.5 m increases between 100km 80 km and Assumption from previous slide Flood speed =10km/h First detection at 0 h 00 (6 hours trip) 0h00 6h00 Detection of the vertical flood speed ?
  170. 170. b)Lab 2: The real work is on the flood line 90°--It is made by the flood detectors placed every 20km. Data collected along the line gives the flood frontline distance and horizontal flood speed (the flood velocity) 90° ½ village 100km 80km 60km 40km 20km 0km river 6 12 18 0 24 Day hours Case : Flood trip : 6 hours. Travel distance: 60 km (on line 90°) Average flood speed, S = 10 km/hour (at night) [60/6=10] Flood frontline: The flood is at 2 hours out of reach of the village. First detection at 0 hour First detection at 6 o clock What is the flood status expectation in 2 hours or with a detector placed at 20 km from the village? ?
  171. 171. c)Monitor 1: Variance of the flood water level with time -Ref.: average level of run-offs in the flood corridor)- Hours (Height) 1m 1h 2m 2.5m 5m 1m Meter per hour Vertical speed of the flood (Variance per hour) 4h 6h (Time)
  172. 172. d)Monitor 2 :Other representation of the flood elevation -at specific distance points- 0.5 With flood detectors spaced of 20 km, the organization is measuring average results 2.5 4 m Average water increase Between 2 measurements of 20Km (In principle every 2 hours) 100km detection 2 increase detection 3 Increase detection 4 decrease 1m 80km 60km 40km 20km +2 2+0.5=2.5 +2.5+2.5=5 5-4.0=1 2m Detection 1 Increase Variance per hour Multiply by 20km => it is the tranche of debit if multiply by the corridor aperture. ? 1 4 3 2 5 0km >0 <0 +2.0 +0.5 +2.5 +1.0 +6.0 -5.0 +1.0 -5.0 d1 d2 d3 d5? d4 Total Data recorded Database fillings Forecasting
  174. 174. a)The link between sediments and flooding Sediment processing over the river bed rock The river water sediments travel down the river Increase of the thickness of the sediment layer Increasing layers of sediments inducing the flooding portion Volume of water over the sediments The water lifted outside the river bed under the influence of the sediment layer formation Level subsurface 1 Level subsurface 2 Before the sediment process After the Sediment process Water flowing downstream the river
  175. 175. b)Flooding due to canal sediments The sediments in formation creating the flooding portion The flood portion in formation (rise up and eventually flooding) River flows Downwards X X’ P1 (flooding sediment –traceable layers) P2 (After) P1 (Before) Accumulation of Sediment layers
  176. 176. c)The link between sediment layers and the flooding portions Riverbed rock Natural sedimentation of the river bed The sediment top layer Equilibrium 1 (Before the hydrolgy hazard) Equilibrium 2 (After the hydrology hazard) X X’ T=t1 T=t2 Y’2 Y2 Y’1 Y1 A2 (t2) A1 (t1) T: time A: sediment layer F: flow (with the sediment) The sediment top layer Flow 1 Flow 2 Water subsurface 2 Water subsurface 1 Flowstream Flowstream A1-A2- = H1+H2 2 H1 = F1+A1 H2 = F2+A2 F1 =/ F2 F2 = F1+A2
  177. 177. d)Lab 3: Issues from Lab 2:. Overflow = run-off inflitration in excess of water infiltration Initial flow volume Excess (due to rain) Flood zone L70° L115° Village location 00 20km 40km 60km 80km Flood detectors Run-off infiltrations in excess cannot be drained by the flood prone zone during flooding. The local detectors are measuring the speeds and the elevations of an excess of water that cannot be drained by the river canal and the split water from the canal spreads on the strand as run-off infiltrations in excess + Run-off infiltration in excess Flooding portion
  179. 179. a)Lab 1: The water flow mouvement (the flood portion model) A River bed A Section of water from the river River flow (Q= m3./s) Land surface (B:b1, b2, b3) Initial increase : Increase 1 = B. It has 3 components (b1: speed, b2: elevation, b3 flow A section). It is less than the riverbed security (rbs)  rbs – b2 = rbm (river bed margin) room left over before the flood starts. Flood starts if b2 > rbs Second increase : increase 2 = C (C1, C2,C3). This time, b2+c2 > rbs and b2 = b’2 with b’2 = rbs (with b2 + b’2= rbs) (rbs) River canal River bed margin (rbm) River bed security (rbs) Flood portion Debordement formula (rbs-rbm) +d= c+d d c (1) (2) (3) Equilibrium equation rbm = 0 when rb = rbs+a Canal equation rb = A+rbs
  180. 180. b)The study of the flood portion model Flood portion Flowing into land Sediment layer obstructing the canal
  182. 182. a)Lab 6: Project Risk Cause Problem Impact i Impact j Impact n … . (Warning:project risk case: a water hazard –a flood- with one cause and one problem only with various impacts)
  183. 183. b)Various causes for water trucks being disabled. Here, I selected a water infiltration source-flood- Cause Pb Pb Pb Cause Cause Various causes Flood infiltrations Disabled Water trucking Driver killed Impact Impact Impact Impact Hazard Multi-hazard event Hazard Hazard Looting Looting water Van stolen Impact Water House scrambling Sheltering
  184. 184. c)Problem: Disabled water trucking (and project product life cycle -PLC-) H1 H2 Time Flood condition requirement definition => H2 – H1 > h value at which water trucking Is not physically possible h Elevations Average Run-off line Average Run-off line Project starts Project ends (Project life cycle) Water trucking Deviation increases Water discharge curve Control 1 Control 2 -Monitor -Look-out Points -Flood detector -RFID -MIS Production zone Flood Forecast WMO Look-out points Forecast before flood On order during flood >0 Capacity building Manufacturing Drops Preparadness Project operation
  186. 186. Lab 1: Issue on the technological detections -Where to position the first flood detector?- D2 T=t D1 T=0 River Average water rises between 2 detections How long it takes The water—water river) to be 2 m high (elevation 2m) Importance Of the location Of the first detector To inform about the Real water elevation in order To reduce the variance between The real elevation and the average Too close To the river Laws on flood maybe sum up in: -the soil structure, and -the infiltration capacity. 2 cases: predictible and unpredictible flood Predictible :Look-out points, evidence based policies of the very likely places Where statistically the occurrence of robust floods are highly ( In this case one should not leave in this area ) See statistics on standard deviation and risk (1 sigma, 2 sigma….)
  187. 187. Issue with the detection of the first flood: where and when the 0.5 meter water increase occurs, in between the 2 detections. [When does 0.5 meter added to 2 meters ?]--towards a simulation of the first water elevations, non-fixed discharge-- 2m Detection 1 T=0.00 2.5m Detection 2 T=2.00 River The real curve of the flood elevation: The Flood level increases Average water levels through 2 detections at intervals of 2 hours Excess Of water From the 1rst detection Detection 1: Portion of river flow that travels inland and can create the flood.
  188. 188. Issues : What is the appropriate interval of time for 2 flood measurements? – Normally, the simulation of an hypothetical flood trip travel time between 2 detections allow the determination of the flood speed by the relation: x=vt , x being the trip distance travelled by the flood during the time (t). In principle, the distance x is unknown until, it has been measured (or simulated). In our case, it is known when the flood detectors are put in the flood zone for Monitoring purpose. In real works, the implementation of a distance indication with flood detectors preceeds the speed measurement and also, the time delay measurement between 2 detections that suceed. Note: Besides using technologies to record flood speeds, an experienced flood person --from the local environment presumably-- may be able to have a feeling for the flood speeds—as with various monitors, also-- and do the reverse operations to assess several flood parameters.— It is flood forecasting without technologies.
  189. 189. d)Flood portion as open system exchanging with the environment Flooding portion underground soil Bed rock River bed rock Flood occurs if the soil impervious to a certain extent (see slide 68: flood science and the soil water infiltration capacity) Flood prone regions canal wall Sediments obstructing the canal river channel Sub-surface Soil permeability ( K) Water movements in/out K= kh (soil structure) + kv (infiltration capacity/perviousness)
  190. 190. e)Visualization of the run-off infiltration in excess (Horizontal Permeability/perviousness coeff. kh) Flooding Saturated zone Transition zone Impervious surface Pervious soil Wetling front with antecedent water penetration flood Run-off infiltration in excess if too high it is creating a flood Flood risk: H-h > 0 (water trucking cannot go) kv kv : coefficient of perviousity (soil vertical permeability) River canal Soil
  191. 191. h)Flood detectors are measuring 2 kinds of excessive waters (run-off waters in excess) Transition Saturated Wet with antecedent Soil structure by a river stream (underground under-influence of the canal with the permeability Kt ) River canal in and out Water movements Underground Water circulations K: permeability coefficient, K=kv +kh, kv :vertical permeability --when there is the subsurface water that penetrate the soil sourced from the flood (if the surface is not impervious kv=0) kh: horizontal permeability due to infiltration cpacity depending of the soil structure –see slide 68- kv Natural river channel
  192. 192. i)River flow equations River bed characteristic equations rb = A (a1, a2, a3) +rbs rb = a +( b +rbm) rb= a + b + c (equilibrium equation with b+c= rbs) Debordement formula (rbs-rbm) +d= c+d Equilibrium equation rbm = 0 when rb = rbs+a
  193. 193. j)Lab 8: Departure detector (Dd) river Flood indicator (Dd) A B Annual mean rb-A-G = BA __ b= BA __ Gauging capacity Detection (Indicator) G rb Departure Visual check (room left) Flood portion Where the first flood detector should be placed (Departure detector: Dd)?
  194. 194. k)Lab 9: Special cases for the inundation equation Case 1 rbs – rbm = 0  rbs = rbm -river bed of the canal is with the annual mean of water elevation Case 2 rbm – rbs < 0, river flows varied between the average Water elevation and the maximum water elevation
  195. 195. l)Lab 10: Split Over Strand condition (SOS) b2+c2+d2 > rbs  split over strand (sos) I have divided the space over the H 0 in 3 parts: -One part related to variations within the standard deviations (part within the river bed security and such: c2 < rbm) -no debordement- -The part that creates the flood within the rbm that does not split over (sos), when the equilibrium equation is satisfy (desequilibrium equation) The split over condition is validate (sos) for a d2 >0 -Part 3: the sliding part is when the rbs is reduced due to change in the Weather conditions, H varies within the standard deviation outside flood and the river bed security is reduced due to increases of H c [Hmin, Hmax] It is a factor affecting the flood severity H 0 b2 c2 d2 rbs The Sliding theory d2/rbs= [rb – H(t)]/rbs rbm d2
  197. 197. a)Lab 1: Basic models for flooding River bedrock = 0 (elevation) [Maximum height of the river canal= rb (river bed)] rb known Canal charactristics Sub-surface water (average: annual mean) H 0 Notes: 1- Index (0) in H (0 ) is for a specific River, it could be river 1, or river 2 Etc… 2- A means Sum Ai/ n (i=1,2…n) n c N, is the mean of a discret distribution of n measurement for A specific period of time (in the example 1 year. Thus, H 0 the annual mean is a year mean in the region 0 (see slide 90 on various river dischar- ges and standard deviation – variance Of the annual mean of water eleva- Tion in a river canal (Y) River strand River canal (Flood prone area) Land subsurface Y = y(t) variation of the flood portion over time. Also, portion of the river above the river bed Security (rbs) rbs *Normally known through detections of the water advancing inland--flood water raising up, water elevation occurs because of the lack of soil inflitration with the time and soil structures and the distance travelled by the flood from the river channel (see slides 67) Flooding formula (rbs-rbm) +b= a+b rbm
  198. 198. b)Model 1 for flood (improvment):remarks Preliminary remarks Parameters that influence Y= y(t). Y= y(t) is the water elevation due to flooding on the land sub-surface. But does flood occurs? How, When and where? What are the characteristics of the flood? Which elements are influencing the flood characters: -weather types, -river flows, -canal characteritics, -landsurface crossed by the flood. Models presented here and their improvment will attempt to answer these questions in order to find the best detection network.
  199. 199. c)Model 1 for flood (improvment):bis (validation framework) Understanding the basic flood model Conditions for the basic flood model to be applicable. 2 steps process to validate the model: Step one : what are the important data to captures in the flood predicted arrival (or real flood undetected with traditional Means –but could be detected with the new technology) Step two : enouncement of the requirements:
  200. 200. d)Model 1 for flood (improvment):ter (description of the flood with ordinary words) Description of the flood concept (application for the strand of A river –water innundation coming from water flowing over its upper riverbed limit --- called the river strand portion of the river canal facing the land). Perhaps, it can also goes beyond –question to answer later After crossing the river bed, the flood portion travel a distance Variable according to the characteristic of the travel surface on,which it has occured [Intermediate questions? How far the model can be applied beyond the strand? Is the detector well placed at the fringe of the strand?]
  201. 201. e)What happen when water goes beyond its average mean and above the river bed security: Inundation equation (rbs – rbm) + b = a+b –study of the river bed security and flood conditions) H 0 rbs rbm b a
  202. 202. f)Excess of overflow --run-offs in excess in the river due to the rain than cannot be drained and, which is createing the split over the river bed –flood-- River bed security(rbs) River average Normal elevation A (a1, a2, a3) B (b1, b2, b3) Excess of run-off that does not Create flood River bed margin (rbm) b2 a2 Flood detector 1 Flood detector 2 20km C (c1, c2, c3) Excess of run-off that Create flood FlowA FlowB FlowC c3 (rb) flood=c3+b2 -rbs Flood portion FlowP Split of the flood portion ouside the river bed I think it is the portion of water over the river bed that creates the flood over a period of time related to the time being spent by the Water outside the river bed. This portion need to be detected
  203. 203. VII- Sampling Model of the flood portion E (t) E (t): thickness of the flood portion varying with time River width River height rbs Average water discharge (river flow) H 0 Hmin Hmax
  204. 204. A gauging method applied to the river canal dry river (empty) Maximum water river subsurface (or upper limit of the river canal or river bed or strand for the flood event) Strand river bed or canal height H Gauging equation H = rb - rbs rbs Gauging = reading Reading zone on the rulers rb rbs : river bed security Maximum discharge Acceptable in the river bed before flooding (possible flood or innundation) assumption : outside dry bed season, the River bed is not empty
  205. 205. Flood equations for the river flood=c3+b2 –rbs>0 (equation 0) Equation 1: b2 +c2 > b2 + rbm (flood innundation condition) Equation 2: a2+b2+c2 – rb < 0 ( river flow equation) Flood equation: a2 + b2 + c2 - rb > 0 Equation 3: c3 > rbm = rb – (rbs+a2) (2nd equation for flood condition) b2=rbs (identity condition) Equilibrium equation: a2 + b2 +c2 = rb = rbs + margin + a2 Issue with the flood equations: these equations take into account only the elevations factor of the water River flow, in which is our interes : components (2) (a2, b2, c2 of flows A, B and C) of the various flows (normal A, excess B and excess creating the flood C). Component 1 is for speed, and 3 the flow sections. Such basic flood equations supposed that the speed and/or the sections of the flows are unchanged during the riverflow (total river flow) and the various river flows. Later, we will see that only the dimension of the flow (Q) is conserved. It is the volume Of water per time, which can be conserved (with assumption of a fix regime– false Assumption I suppose depending of the type of flood as flood flow is never fixed but Transitory. I may expect to find the time that would help for this fix regime and to Position the flood indicator during the season and the right place on the ground in order To reduce uncertainties though the detections Adventages: good for a first simulations of the flood detection model. Locations of detectors and going Beyond average measure that could be dangerous in assessing flood water speed and elevations
  206. 206. VII-Summary of the flood equations
  208. 208. Lab 8: Assumption on the flood frontline speed
  209. 209. Toward a conclusion A simulation model: transport Travel of a water package That varies with time Start time t= t0, flood occurs Flood portion QF? First flood Initial Flood portion QF = [w (m)] x [y (m) x speed record]
  210. 210. Issue with the flood detection: is it really relevant to differentiate vertical speed (water elevation of the flood/second) and the horizontal speed (the distance travelled on the land by the flood front line? Exploration of the mobile model to simulate flood dy/dt (vertical speed) dx/dth (horizontal speed) dz/dt (lateral speed Flood as a mobile Resp: different casescenario from the flood type classes: 1-flood flows can be very very slow (so slow that one may think there is none, the flood network is not working). This Relative muteness is measlideng as for sur the likelyhood of a flood is high.(emergency evacuation order would fail because of the long lead time for the flood predicted arrival time. 2-Short lead-time: speedy flood with low elevation 3-giant flood/short time responsiveness 4-giant flood long-time to arrive This is related to the flood power P=W/t (robust flood versus non robust flood
  211. 211. This package of water (variation 2.5m X 20km is travelling instantanetly to is new configuration (water package) either new water increases or decreases the total mass of the flood water. In physics it is the flood movement quantity. It help to assess the impact of the flood water during a crash collision on its trip. 20km 0 2.5 meters Line 90°
  212. 212. Assessment of the initial flood flow The first flood flow is different than the first flood portion FT: Flood travel RT: River travel 2 3 1 2 1 TT: Total travel 3 Travel = flow Flow equation 3= 1+2 are supposed To be constant and conservative Flow eq: speed x elevation x width S3V3 – S1V1 = S2V2 With S (section) =W x elevation : x(t) . y(t). z. x y z a (t) b(t) c a(t) . b(t). c C A (t) B(t)
  213. 213. Conservative Equation of flows (Velocity measured during 1 second Section of Flow 1 d(a) d(a): distance travelled for 1 second is the velocity d(b) d(b): total water elevation before flooding dx: quantity loss from flooding (elevation component) dy:quantity loss from flooding (width component) dz: quantity loss from floo