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Graduate School of Political Management
The PEORIA Project
Early July 2016 Update
Unclosed Deals: What PEORIA Twitter Metr...
Graduate School of Political Management
The PEORIA Project
Early July 2016 Update
Executive Summary
On May 4, Hillary Clin...
Graduate School of Political Management
The PEORIA Project
Early July 2016 Update
Executive Summary (cont’d)
• Clinton had...
Graduate School of Political Management
The PEORIA Project
Early July 2016 Update
Table of Contents
• Introduction: Party ...
Graduate School of Political Management
The PEORIA Project
Early July 2016 Update
Table of Contents (cont’d)
• Suspended C...
Graduate School of Political Management
The PEORIA Project
Early July 2016 Update
Party Consolidation
6
• The time between...
Graduate School of Political Management
The PEORIA Project
Early July 2016 Update
7
Share of Media Volume
May 4 – July 8, ...
Graduate School of Political Management
The PEORIA Project
Early July 2016 Update
8
• Since locking up their
nominations, ...
Graduate School of Political Management
The PEORIA Project
Early July 2016 Update
9
Engagement Peaks
Twitter Engagement: M...
Graduate School of Political Management
The PEORIA Project
Early July 2016 Update
10
• Retweets are exact copies of
what a...
Graduate School of Political Management
The PEORIA Project
Early July 2016 Update
11
• Based on Twitter posts with identif...
Graduate School of Political Management
The PEORIA Project
Early July 2016 Update
12
• Word clouds are based on posts with...
Graduate School of Political Management
The PEORIA Project
Early July 2016 Update
13
• This slide shows there
was no direc...
Graduate School of Political Management
The PEORIA Project
Early July 2016 Update
14
Demographic Consolidation
Identifiabl...
Graduate School of Political Management
The PEORIA Project
Early July 2016 Update
15
Dormant But Still Growing
Suspensions...
Graduate School of Political Management
The PEORIA Project
Early July 2016 Update
16
• The late effort to stop Donald Trum...
Graduate School of Political Management
The PEORIA Project
Early July 2016 Update
Contact
Michael D. Cohen, Ph.D., PEORIA ...
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PEORIA Project Report Unclosed Deals

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Presumptive Democratic and Republican presidential nominees Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump have not yet staked a claim to the online supporters of their felled opponents according to a new Public Echoes Of Rhetoric In America (PEORIA) Project report.

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PEORIA Project Report Unclosed Deals

  1. 1. Graduate School of Political Management The PEORIA Project Early July 2016 Update Unclosed Deals: What PEORIA Twitter Metrics Tell Us About the Presidential Campaigns During the Party Consolidation Period May 4 – July 8, 2016
  2. 2. Graduate School of Political Management The PEORIA Project Early July 2016 Update Executive Summary On May 4, Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump were the presumptive nominees of their respective parties in terms of delegate counts. But over the next 65 days how well did they consolidate support among the highly attentive and active Twitter users who mentioned their names in tweets? Our analysis, performed on data provided by the media monitoring platforms of Crimson Hexagon and Zignal Labs, found that: • Trump's advantage in Twitter impressions roughly paralleled that in newspaper stories, and both those were greater than in television news and publications indexed by Lexis/Nexis. • Trump's follower growth rate slowed but Clinton's did not increase. 2
  3. 3. Graduate School of Political Management The PEORIA Project Early July 2016 Update Executive Summary (cont’d) • Clinton had the most retweeted tweet of the campaign, the Twitter-savvy message "Delete your account," but Trump's response was also popular. • The disengaged but still expanding followers of defeated candidates represents an outreach opportunity for the presumptive nominees. Neither Clinton nor Trump seem to be doing well at staking claim to these pools of politically attentive and active citizens. • The sharp decline of #NeverTrump stands as a warning to those who would interpret a popular hashtag as a sign of growing support. Bear this in mind as the conventions start. 3
  4. 4. Graduate School of Political Management The PEORIA Project Early July 2016 Update Table of Contents • Introduction: Party Consolidation • Clinton vs. Trump on Twitter 1. Trump led in traditional media and Twitter volume. 2. Trump’s Twitter follower growth slowed to a pace even with Clinton’s. 3. Trump had higher Twitter engagement but Clinton had the tweet of the campaign. 4. The candidates differ in user topic interests. 5. Clinton retained her lead in national polling. 4
  5. 5. Graduate School of Political Management The PEORIA Project Early July 2016 Update Table of Contents (cont’d) • Suspended Campaigns 1. Sanders’ exit provides an opportunity for Clinton to consolidate support in key demographics 2. Suspended campaigns continue to grow in followers while engagement goes dormant 3. The #NeverTrump hashtag demonstrates the limits of these campaign moments 5
  6. 6. Graduate School of Political Management The PEORIA Project Early July 2016 Update Party Consolidation 6 • The time between one person becoming the presumptive nominee of the party thanks to a majority or uncatchable lead in delegates and the actual nomination at the party convention is a time when the candidate works to acquire support from the also-ran candidates. Deals are made, endorsements are won, contrasts with the other party's presumptive nominee sharpen. • By examining word frequency patterns and engagement metrics on Twitter, we can gain new kinds of insight as to how well the all-but- certain presidential nominees are doing at this consolidation process. That is the subject of this seventh PEORIA Project report.
  7. 7. Graduate School of Political Management The PEORIA Project Early July 2016 Update 7 Share of Media Volume May 4 – July 8, 2016 57% 43% 54% 46% 58% 42% 56% 44% Trump Clinton Newspaper TV News Lexis/Nexis Twitter Impressions• A candidate’s share is calculated as a percentage of the sum of the two-candidate volume for each media. • Share of traditional media volume is from Zignal Labs, defined as the number of news stories. • Crimson Hexagon calculates Twitter potential impressions by adding the sender’s followers and the followers of all users who have retweeted a post.
  8. 8. Graduate School of Political Management The PEORIA Project Early July 2016 Update 8 • Since locking up their nominations, Clinton and Trump have continued to grow their followers on Twitter. • While Trump caught up and surpassed Clinton before the Indiana primary, his growth in Twitter followers has slowed to the same pace as hers. Similar Growth Twitter Followers: May 4 – July 8, 2016 0 2,000,000 4,000,000 6,000,000 8,000,000 10,000,000 12,000,000 5/4/16 5/11/16 5/18/16 5/25/16 6/1/16 6/8/16 6/15/16 6/22/16 6/29/16 7/6/16 Clinton Trump
  9. 9. Graduate School of Political Management The PEORIA Project Early July 2016 Update 9 Engagement Peaks Twitter Engagement: May 4 – July 8, 2016 • Total engagement on Twitter is the sum of a candidate’s account’s replies, mentions, and retweets. • Trump has led on Twitter engagement throughout most of the 2016 election cycle, and during this party consolidation period. • Hillary Clinton’s top Twitter engagement moment when her team tweeted “Delete Your Account” at Trump on June 9. • Trump’s top Twitter engagement moment was when he tweeted about the Orlando massacre on June 12. 0 100000 200000 300000 400000 500000 600000 700000 800000 900000 5/4/16 5/11/16 5/18/16 5/25/16 6/1/16 6/8/16 6/15/16 6/22/16 6/29/16 7/6/16 Clinton Trump
  10. 10. Graduate School of Political Management The PEORIA Project Early July 2016 Update 10 • Retweets are exact copies of what a candidate’s account posted, which we view as a measure of engagement or enthusiasm. Trump has had more retweets than Clinton consistently throughout the party consolidation period. • Clinton’s “Delete your account” directed at Trump, which was retweeted 413,667 times on June 6. This is a perfect match of angst about Trump and using a common Twitter insult. • Trump’s response, “How long did it take your staff of 823 people to think that up--and where are your 33,000 emails that you deleted?” was retweeted 200,266 times. The Big Echo Number of Retweets: May 4 – July 8, 2016 0 50000 100000 150000 200000 250000 300000 350000 400000 450000 5/4/16 5/11/16 5/18/16 5/25/16 6/1/16 6/8/16 6/15/16 6/22/16 6/29/16 7/6/16 Clinton Trump
  11. 11. Graduate School of Political Management The PEORIA Project Early July 2016 Update 11 • Based on Twitter posts with identifiable interests by Crimson Hexagon • Figures refer to the number of times the user is more interested in the topic Twitter as a whole Interest Topics Twitter Affinities: May 4 – July 8, 2016 Hillary Clinton Bernie Sanders Donald Trump Political Campaigns 279x Bill Maher 360x Political Campaigns 232x Bill Maher 243x Political Campaigns 235x Glenn Beck 126x MSNBC 113x The Daily Show 120x MSNBC 86x Gun Safety 75x Gun Safety 105x Fox News 67x Glenn Beck 74x Chelsea Handler 86x Veterans 51x Democratic Party 16x Democratic Party 18x Republican Party 32x
  12. 12. Graduate School of Political Management The PEORIA Project Early July 2016 Update 12 • Word clouds are based on posts with identifiable interests by Crimson Hexagon; scale shows how much more the user more interested in the topic than Twitter as a whole. • The word clouds dramatize the data in the previous slide’s table. They show that those tweeting about Trump and Clinton are extremely interested in political campaigns relative to the entire Twitter population. • Clinton posts are more focused on gun safety while Trump’s were on veterans (party is the smallest) Interest Topics (cont’d) Twitter Affinities: May 4 – July 8, 2016 Clinton Trump
  13. 13. Graduate School of Political Management The PEORIA Project Early July 2016 Update 13 • This slide shows there was no direct correlation between the Twitter activity we analyze and poll standings. • During this party consolidation period Clinton has led Trump for all but three days (May 22-24). • Despite Bernie Sanders’ late exit from the campaign on July 12, Clinton has unified her party better than Trump before the conventions. Clinton Led Nationally National Polling: May 4 – July 8, 2016
  14. 14. Graduate School of Political Management The PEORIA Project Early July 2016 Update 14 Demographic Consolidation Identifiable Tweets: May 4 – July 8, 2016 • Posts to Sanders were identified as gender-equal and younger than posts to Clinton or Trump. This is an opportunity for Clinton as she consolidates her party with Sanders’ exit. Posts to Trump were more likely to be white than posts to Sanders or Clinton. • Please note that these data do not indicate whether the tweets were positive, negative, or neutral. We do not perform sentiment analysis in this study. 46% 50% 42% 54% 50% 58% C l… S a… T r… Gender ~56% of tweets were identifiable Trump and Clinton 5m posts each Sanders 2m posts Female Male 12% 15% 14% 80% 76% 79% C l… S a… T r… Age ~15% of tweets were identifiable Trump and Clinton 1m posts each Sanders 692k posts 18-34 35+ 33% 34% 29% 67% 66% 71% C l… S a… T r… Race/Ethnicity ~12% of tweets were identifiable Trump 306k Clinton 151k posts Sanders 259k posts Non-White White
  15. 15. Graduate School of Political Management The PEORIA Project Early July 2016 Update 15 Dormant But Still Growing Suspensions, Followers, and Engagement: Candidate Announcements – July 8, 2016 • We think Clinton and Trump entice politically active tweeters who follow former candidates to join theirs; the relatively parallel and gradual growth rates of Trump and Clinton suggest this is not occurring to one side’s advantage over the other. We also recognize that some of the growth are bots and/or marketing/promotional accounts trying to get in front of others who follow those candidates. - 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 Total Engagement on Twitter - Suspended Republican Campaigns Candidate Announcements - July 8, 2016 Cruz Rubio Carson Bush Kasich 0 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000 1,200,000 1,400,000 1,600,000 1,800,000 Twitter Follower Growth - Suspended Repubican Camapigns Candidate Announcements - July 8, 2016 Cruz Rubio Carson Bush Kasich
  16. 16. Graduate School of Political Management The PEORIA Project Early July 2016 Update 16 • The late effort to stop Donald Trump failed to coalesce around an alternative candidate or a strategy to deny him the nomination at the convention. • Reaction to Trump’s victory in the South Carolina primary and the Michigan debate helped fuel a #NeverTrump hashtag which was included in well over 315k U.S. posts. • The #NeverTrump hashtag had one more moment with 94,805 U.S. posts on the day of the Indiana primary, which effectively ended the race for the Republican nomination. While there was talk of a Renegade Party to oppose Trump, David French decided to pass. • The upcoming conventions will likely feature hashtags. We caution against reading too much into them as they reflect a short-lived moment in time rather than long-term shifts in the campaign. Hashtags Don’t Indicate Campaign Growth January 1 – July 8, 2016
  17. 17. Graduate School of Political Management The PEORIA Project Early July 2016 Update Contact Michael D. Cohen, Ph.D., PEORIA Project Chief Data Scientist michaeldcohen@gwu.edu | 202.579.9094 | @MichaelCohen Michael B. Cornfield, Ph.D., PEORIA Project Director corn@gwu.edu | 202.994.9598 | @MBCornfield Lara M. Brown, Ph.D., Graduate School of Political Management Interim Director larambrown@gwu.edu | 202.994.4545 | @LaraMBrown @CrimsonHexagon @ZignalLabs 617.547.1072 202.798.1673 17

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