Successfully reported this slideshow.

PEORIA Project Report 4: Kasich Rising

1

Share

Loading in …3
×
1 of 34
1 of 34

PEORIA Project Report 4: Kasich Rising

1

Share

Download to read offline

The latest edition of the PEORIA Project shows the ways in which lower tier presidential candidates are leveraging social media to gain traction.

The latest edition of the PEORIA Project shows the ways in which lower tier presidential candidates are leveraging social media to gain traction.

More Related Content

Related Audiobooks

Free with a 14 day trial from Scribd

See all

PEORIA Project Report 4: Kasich Rising

  1. 1. KASICH RISING (AND OTHER HIGHLIGHTS OF THE PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE CONVERSATION) ASSOCIATE PROFESSOR MICHAEL CORNFIELD, ASSOCIATE PROFESSOR LARA BROWN, AND DATA SCIENTIST JAMIE CHANDLER RELEASE DATE: NOVEMBER 9, 2015
  2. 2. Using Zignal Labs’ platform, GSPM tracks the mainstream and social media echoes of the and their .
  3. 3. PART ONE Presidential Debate Chatter
  4. 4. Candidates (Descending order) Total Mentions Sept. 21 – Nov. 1 All Current Candidates (share of voice, in %) Republicans Only (share of voice, in %) Donald Trump 9,096,900 35.6 54.0 Hillary Clinton 4,660,264 18.2 -- Bernie Sanders 3,891,131 15.2 -- Ben Carson 1,913,895 7.5 11.4 Ted Cruz 1,555,251 6.1 9.2 Jeb Bush 1,299,325 5.1 7.7 Marco Rubio 917,575 3.6 5.4 John Kasich 409,393 1.6 2.4 Mike Huckabee 332,727 1.3 2.0 Chris Christie 327,396 1.3 1.9 Carly Fiorina 266,054 1.0 1.6 Rand Paul 263,416 1.0 1.6 Martin O’Malley 156,255 0.6 -- Lindsey Graham 142,727 0.6 0.8 Bobby Jindal 137,574 0.5 0.8 Rick Santorum 131,420 0.5 0.8 George Pataki 43,045 0.2 0.3 CONVERSATION LEADERS Note: Omitted candidates who dropped from the nomination contests (i.e., Perry, Walker, Webb, and Chafee).
  5. 5. TRUMP STILL DOMINATES 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 All Candidates Share of Voice (%) September 21 - November 1, 2015
  6. 6. CLINTON & TRUMP? 54% 11% 9% 8% 5% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2%1%1%1%0% Share of Republican Voice (%) September 21 - November 1, 2015 Trump Carson Cruz Bush Rubio Kasich Huckabee Christie Fiorina Paul Graham Jindal Santorum Pataki 46% 39% 2% 4% 2% 7% Share of Democratic Voice (%) September 21 - November 1, 2015 Clinton Sanders O'Malley Webb Chafee Biden* Note: In this and many of the following analyses, we added Biden into the Democratic field because his potential candidacy was a much discussed possibility.
  7. 7. DEMOCRATIC TIME SERIES Note: Omitted candidates who dropped from the nomination contests (i.e., Perry, Walker, Webb, and Chafee).
  8. 8. DEMOCRATIC CONVERSATION 0 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000 1,200,000 1,400,000 1,600,000 1,800,000 Clinton Sanders O'Malley Webb Chafee Biden* Total Mentions Before Debate September 21 - October 12, 2015 0 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000 3,000,000 3,500,000 Clinton Sanders O'Malley Webb Chafee Biden* Total Mentions During/After Debate October 13 - November 1, 2015
  9. 9. DEMOCRATIC NET SENTIMENT -75 -50 -25 0 25 50 75 Clinton Sanders O'Malley Webb Chafee Biden* Net Sentiment of Democratic Candidates Mentions (%) Pre-Debate Net Sentiment (9/21-10/12) Post-Debate Net Sentiment (10/13-11/1) Note: Net sentiment is measured as the percentage of positive mentions minus the percentage of negative mentions (similar to “net approval” or “net favorability”). Still, NLP does not capture sentiment all that indiscriminately. As such, sarcasm (“that’s sick”), disappointment (“that sucks”), or even descriptive facts (“drops out”) may be included in the mentions count. Net sentiment should, therefore, be seen as a directional and relational indicator rather than an absolute measure.
  10. 10. REPUBLICAN TIME SERIES Note: Omitted candidates who dropped from the nomination contests (i.e., Perry, Walker, Webb, and Chafee).
  11. 11. REPUBLICAN CONVERSATION 0 250,000 500,000 750,000 1,000,000 1,250,000 1,500,000 1,750,000 Total Mentions Before Debate September 21 - October 27, 2015 Undercard Debaters 0 75,000 150,000 225,000 300,000 375,000 450,000 Total Mentions During/After Debate October 28 - November 1, 2015 Undercard Debaters “Off the Chart” Total Mentions Sept. 21 – Oct. 27 Total Mentions Oct. 28 – Nov. 1 Donald Trump 8,068,885 1,028,015
  12. 12. REPUBLICAN NET SENTIMENT -75 -50 -25 0 25 50 75 Net Sentiment of Republican Candidates Mentions (%) Pre-Debate Net Sentiment (9/21-10/27) Post-Debate Net Sentiment (10/28-11/1) Undercard Debaters
  13. 13. DEMOCRATS: WHO IS TALKING ABOUT WHOM? Candidates Mainstream Media Sept. 21 – Nov. 1 Social Media Sept. 21 – Nov. 1 Hillary Clinton 511,865 4,148,399 Bernie Sanders 249,741 3,641,490 Martin O’Malley 71,707 84,548 Jim Webb 54,482 365,885 Lincoln Chafee 47,796 183,466 Joe Biden* 212,240 520,748 0 750,000 1,500,000 2,250,000 3,000,000 3,750,000 4,500,000 Clinton Sanders O'Malley Webb Chafee Biden* TotalMentions Total Media Mentions September 21 - November 1, 2015 Mainstream Media Social Media
  14. 14. DEMOCRATS: WHO IS TALKING ABOUT WHOM? 45% 22% 6% 5% 4% 18% Mainstream Media SOV (%) September 21 - November 1, 2015 Clinton Sanders O'Malley Webb Chafee Biden* 46% 41% 1% 4% 2% 6% Social Media SOV (%) September 21 - November 1, 2015 Clinton Sanders O'Malley Webb Chafee Biden*
  15. 15. DEMOCRATS: WHO IS TALKING ABOUT WHOM? 0 250,000 500,000 750,000 1,000,000 1,250,000 1,500,000 Clinton Sanders O'Malley Webb Chafee Biden* TotalMentions Media Mentions Before Debate September 21 - October 12, 2015 Mainstream Media Social Media 0 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000 3,000,000 Clinton Sanders O'Malley Webb Chafee Biden* TotalMentions Media Mentions During/After Debate October 13 - November 1, 2015 Mainstream Media Social Media
  16. 16. REPUBLICANS: WHO IS TALKING ABOUT WHOM? Candidates Mainstream Media Sept. 21 – Nov. 1 Social Media Sept. 21 – Nov. 1 Donald Trump 502,686 8,594,221 Ben Carson 224,731 1,689,170 Jeb Bush 198,198 1,101,138 Marco Rubio 149,926 767,662 Ted Cruz 108,506 1,446,749 Carly Fiorina 90,061 175,993 Chris Christie 78,952 248,453 John Kasich 59,578 349,813 Rand Paul 58,700 204,722 Mike Huckabee 43,637 289,093 Lindsey Graham 38,843 35,511 Bobby Jindal 17,005 33,440 Rick Santorum 31,779 20,689 George Pataki 6,858 13,594 0 250,000 500,000 750,000 1,000,000 1,250,000 1,500,000 1,750,000 TotalMentions Total Media Mentions September 21 - November 1, 2015 Mainstream Media Social Media Trump: Off the chart again . Undercard Debaters
  17. 17. REPUBLICANS: WHO IS TALKING ABOUT WHOM? 33% 15% 13% 10% 7% 6% 5% 4% 4% 3% Mainstream Media SOV (%) September 21 - November 1, 2015 Trump Carson Bush Rubio Cruz Fiorina Christie Kasich Paul Huckabee 58% 11% 8% 5% 10% 1%2%2%1%2% Social Media SOV (%) September 21 - November 1, 2015 Trump Carson Bush Rubio Cruz Fiorina Christie Kasich Paul Huckabee
  18. 18. REPUBLICANS: WHO IS TALKING ABOUT WHOM? 0 250,000 500,000 750,000 1,000,000 1,250,000 1,500,000 TotalMentions Media Mentions Before Debate September 21 - October 27, 2015 Mainstream Media Social Media 0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 TotalMentions Media Mentions During/After Debate October 28 - November 1, 2015 Mainstream Media Social Media Undercard Debaters Undercard Debaters “Off the Charts” Mainstream Media Sept. 21 – Oct. 27 Social Media Sept. 21 – Oct. 27 Mainstrea m Media Oct. 28 – Nov. 1 Social Media Oct. 28 – Nov. 1 Donald Trump 435,134 7,633,758 67,552 960,463
  19. 19. THE WEEK THAT WAS FOR THE DEMOCRATS 52% 28% 14% 1%3% 2% Democratic Share of Voice (%) October 19 - 25, 2015 Clinton Sanders Biden O'Malley Webb Chafee
  20. 20. THE WEEK THAT WAS FOR THE DEMOCRATS 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 Website Shares Top Campaign Tweet (RT) Social Media During the Week October 19 - October 25, 2015 Clinton Sanders
  21. 21. CLINTON’S TOP 3 TWEETS DURING HEARINGS 1,687 Retweets 659Retweets 445 Retweets
  22. 22. TOP GOP RESPONSES TO BENGHAZI HEARINGS #1 #3 Jeb Bush 92 Retweets #1 #1 Donald Trump 1,489 Retweets #1 #5 Chris Christie 22 Retweets #1 #2 Mike Huckabee 130 Retweets #1 #4 Rand Paul 70 Retweets
  23. 23. PART TWO Social media activity by the candidates and their campaigns during the conservational events of the period.
  24. 24. TRUMP ON TOP? ECHO CONVERSION RATES Candidates (in descending order) Echo Conversion (total number of website shares/total number of social media mentions, measured in % for Sept.21-Nov.1, 2015) Cruz 13.8 Kasich 8.5 Fiorina 5.3 Clinton 1.6 Paul 1.5 Sanders 1.0 O'Malley 1.0 Huckabee 0.8 Rubio 0.8 Carson 0.6 Bush 0.5 Christie 0.08 Trump 0.05 0 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000 3,000,000 3,500,000 4,000,000 4,500,000 Social Media Mentions & Website Shares September 21 - November 1, 2015 Social Media Mentions Website Shares Again, Trump is “off the chart.” His social media mentions were over 8.5M, but his website shares were 4,517 – he comes in last on this measure.
  25. 25. DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATES SOCIAL MEDIA ACTIVITY 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 Clinton Sanders O'Malley Webb Chafee Social Media Before Debate September 21 - October 12, 2015 WebsiteShares TopCampaign Tweet (RTs) 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 Clinton Sanders O'Malley Webb Chafee Social Media During/Post Debate October 13 - November 1, 2015 Website Shares Top Campaign Tweet (RTs)
  26. 26. CNN DEBATE: DEMOCRATS TOP RESPONSES (10/13-10/14) #1 Bernie Sanders 4,570 Retweets #1 #2 Hillary Clinton 3,109 Retweets #1 #3 Martin O’Malley 136 Retweets #4 Jim Webb 69 Retweets #5 Lincoln Chafee 69 Retweets
  27. 27. HUCKABEE LIVE-TROLLS DEMOCRATIC DEBATE
  28. 28. TOP 3 RETWEETED GOP RESPONSES (10/13-10/14) #2 Donald Trump 5,759 Retweets #1 Donald Trump 17,378 Retweets #3 Donald Trump 4,699 Retweets
  29. 29. REPUBLICAN CANDIDATES SOCIAL MEDIA ACTIVITY 0 40,000 80,000 120,000 160,000 200,000 Social Media Before Debate September 21 - October 27, 2015 Website Shares Top Campaign Tweet (RTs) 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 Social Media During/Post Debate October 28 - November 1, 2015 Website Shares Top Campaign Tweet (RTs)
  30. 30. KASICH WORKS HIS NETWORK
  31. 31. CNBC DEBATE: REPUBLICANS TOP RESPONSES (10/28-10/29) #1 #1 Donald Trump 3,215 Retweets #1 #3 Ben Carson 2,019Retweets #1 #4 Ted Cruz 1,585 Retweets #1 #2 Marco Rubio 3,103 Retweets #1 #5 Jeb Bush 1,422 Retweets
  32. 32. #1 #10 John Kasich 85 Retweets #1 #9 Mike Huckabee 156 Retweets #1 #8 Chris Christie 357 Retweets #1 #7 Carly Fiorina 432 Retweets #1 #6 Rand Paul 691 Retweets CNBC DEBATE: REPUBLICANS TOP RESPONSES (10/28-10/29)
  33. 33. #1 Hillary Clinton 4,097 Retweets #1 #2 Bernie Sanders 3,396 Retweets #1 #3 Hillary Clinton 3,393 Retweets TOP 3 RETWEETED DEMOCRATS RESPONSES (10/28-10/29)
  34. 34. QUESTIONS? Graduate School of Political Management @GSPMGWU John Brandt Media Relations johnbrandt@gwu.edu Michael Cornfield Lara Brown Associate Professor Associate Professor corn@gwu.edu larambrown@gwu.edu Zignal Labs @ZignalLabs Pete Eskew D.J. Waldow Head of East Coast Sales Director of Marketing peskew@zignallabs.com djwaldow@zignallabs.com

Editor's Notes

  • Words can affect elections as well as reflect pre-election trends -- to the extent words circulate society and penetrate public consciousness (e.g., 47%).

    Today, whenever words travel online, they can be converted into data. We can measure words circulation:  by volume, over time, across news and social media channels, as connected to other words, even (roughly) according to the sentiment (positive/negative) attached to them.

    Importantly, candidates say many words and campaigns are built around messages. This project is about understanding how those words and messages “play in Peoria.”

    The PEORIA Project follows the candidates and their campaign messages, measuring the public echoes that surface in all types of media.

    The primary research question is: what’s being said about the candidates and their campaigns?
  • Being in the undercard debate leads to substantially fewer mentions – both in mainstream and social media
  • As we discussed in our last report, we’re interested in similarities and differences between mainstream and social media voices. While it is too early to understand which way the arrow goes (do the news media cause social, vice versa, or are they independent conversations) we are interested in keeping track of the differences.

    Our questions remain: Will one group identify the eventual party nominee earlier than the other? Who are the darlings in each category?

    But for note, what is clear is that The Donald dominated social media, whereas, Bush captured a large portion of the mainstream media. Interestingly, Donald Trump was covered only slightly more than Jeb Bush by mainstream media. Also, the total numbers between the two sets of media types are very different – about 11.1M of the mentions of these 12 candidates are on social media platforms (Twitter, Facebook, Videos—YouTube, Vimeo, etc., and Blogs), whereas the other 1.1M are on news media (Broadcast TV, LexisNexis, News Sites). Hence, even if the news media are being more responsible in their candidate coverage – they are getting “drown out” by the conversations happening on social media. The volume is hugely different.
  • News of Biden not running garnered more mentions in a shorter period than the Benghazi hearing, but Clinton’s overall share of voice was larger this week than during either the pre- or post- debate periods. In short, the candidate who suffered “lost media oxygen” during the week was Bernie Sanders (down about 10
  • Of note – only HRC and Bernie had any social activity to speak of (all others were under 500 shares/RTs.
    During the Benghazi hearing, Katy Perry was especially helpful to HRC – as was her campaign. Many of the most popular Tweets were from those who stood by and supported her.
  • Note – Echo conversion rate is the total # of website shares for the candidate’s website divided by the total number of social media mentions for the candidate. Ted Cruz continues to perform strongly on this engagement-seeking metric. Kasich and Fiorina impressed, while Clinton and Sanders underperformed given their otherwise strong digital engagement records.
  • The difference in scales is extraordinary (debates = social media events). These are both essentially two week periods, yet prior to the debate the most website shares HRC received were about 15K, but during and after the debate, her numbers reached over 50K. These charts show a great deal of social media activity on the part of Clinton and Sanders, which makes the low echo conversion rates that much more puzzling – but then again, understandable given the volume both are reaching (it’s hard to get more than 1% of nearly 4M people to engage).
  • The top retweets for both Sanders and O’Malley concerned criminal justice, raising the possibility of involvement by #blacklivesmatter.
  • Mike Huckabee enjoyed success live-trolling the Democratic debate.
  • All Trump! The trolling of the Democratic debate attracted far more retweeting than the Democrats’ trumpeting of the debate.
  • Huge variation on the GOP side: Christie no website post-debate shares – Trump had some, but still far, far fewer than Cruz. Rubio did well post-debate, but was non-existent before. Fiorina/Paul small # of RTs. Fiorina did better on website shares, especially post-debate. Cruz lots of website shares. Kasich appears to be “punching above” his weight-class in terms of website shares – though he was stronger before the debate (perhaps because of his comments on the trail about Trump and Carson) than during/after the debate.
  • Kasich’s word cloud and top hashtags show that he is using his social media strategically by targeting early primary states and promoting endorsements (the words “Illinois and Christine refer to an endorsement the governor received from the state senate Republican Leader Christine Radogno).
  • Even though the Ted Cruz line featured here was a stand-out dramatic moment in the debate, three comments by other candidates attracted more retweets.

    Also, Jeb Bush tweeting a picture of his personalized cowboy boots is somewhat like his fantasy football moment, he believes he is connecting (being authentic and perhaps, funny), but it seems awfully forced.
  • This is one metric where Kasich fared poorly, in contrast to others.
  • Clinton’s comments outperformed Sanders in retweeting –and again the stand-out dramatic moment, when Sanders declared enough about Clinton’s email, did not register impressively on this metric.
  • ×