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The fifth edition of the PEORIA Project, "The Year in Echoes" looks back at the year in political conversations and seeks to find the winners and losers in the battle to get campaign messages heard and echoed by the general public. This report includes all social and mainstream media conversations of the 2016 election from March 15, 2015 to January 17, 2016.

The fifth edition of the PEORIA Project, "The Year in Echoes" looks back at the year in political conversations and seeks to find the winners and losers in the battle to get campaign messages heard and echoed by the general public. This report includes all social and mainstream media conversations of the 2016 election from March 15, 2015 to January 17, 2016.

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Peoria 5 final

  1. 1. THE YEAR IN ECHOES (AND OTHER HIGHLIGHTS OF THE PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN CONVERSATION) ASSOCIATE PROFESSOR MICHAEL CORNFIELD AND ASSOCIATE PROFESSOR LARA BROWN RELEASE DATE: JANUARY 21, 2016
  2. 2. Using Zignal Labs’ platform, GSPM tracks the mainstream and social media echoes of the and their .
  3. 3. PART ONE Presidential Chatter
  4. 4. THE “SEMI-VISIBLE” PRIMARY WINNERS? MARCH 15, 2015 – JANUARY 17, 2016 Candidates (Alphabetical Order, by Party) Total Mentions Net Sentiment (%, most positive) Mainstream Media Mentions Social Media Mentions Website Shares Echo Conversion Jeb Bush 5 14 3 5 9 12 Ben Carson 6 1 7 6 11 11 Chris Christie 10 12 8 10 12 14 Ted Cruz 4 7 5 4 1 1 Carly Fiorina 9 5 10 9 10 10 Mike Huckabee 12 13 12 12 8 6 John Kasich 11 3 11 11 7 7 Rand Paul 8 11 9 8 4 2 Marco Rubio 7 8 6 7 5 4 Rick Santorum 13 4 14 13 14 3 Donald Trump 1 6 1 1 6 13 Hillary Clinton 2 10 2 2 3 8 Bernie Sanders 3 2 4 3 2 5 Martin O’Malley 14 9 13 14 13 9
  5. 5. THE “SEMI-VISIBLE” PRIMARY WINNERS? MARCH 15, 2015 – JANUARY 17, 2016 Republican Candidates (Descending Order) Winners (total points, lowest points = best) Democratic Candidates (Descending Order) Winners (total points, lowest points = best) Ted Cruz 1 (22 pts.) Bernie Sanders 1 (19 pts.) Donald Trump 2 (28 pts.) Hillary Clinton 2 (27 pts.) Marco Rubio 3 (37 pts.) Martin O’Malley 3 (72 pts.) Rand Paul 4 – tie (42 pts.) Ben Carson 4 – tie (42 pts.) Jeb Bush 5 (48 pts.) John Kasich 6 (50 pts.) Carly Fiorina 7 (53 pts.) Rick Santorum 8 (61 pts.) Mike Huckabee 9 (63 pts.) Chris Christie 10 (66 pts.)
  6. 6. Candidates (Descending Order) Total Mentions March 15, 2015 – January 17, 2016 All Current Candidates (share of voice, in %) Republicans Only (share of voice, in %) Donald Trump 57,427,624 37.7 54.2 Hillary Clinton 24,550,084 16.1 -- Bernie Sanders 20,993,263 13.7 -- Ted Cruz 12,645,053 8.3 11.9 Jeb Bush 7,770,771 5.1 7.3 Ben Carson 6,571,776 4.3 6.2 Marco Rubio 5,473,165 3.6 5.2 Rand Paul 4,499,443 3.0 4.3 Carly Fiorina 3,234,045 2.1 3.1 Chris Christie 2,940,475 1.9 2.8 John Kasich 2,228,874 1.5 2.1 Mike Huckabee 2,070,280 1.4 2.0 Rick Santorum 1,054,703 0.7 1.0 Martin O’Malley 820,495 0.5 1.8 CONVERSATION LEADERS
  7. 7. TRUMP DOMINATED 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 All Candidates Share of Voice (%) March 15, 2015 - January 17, 2016
  8. 8. CLINTON & TRUMP 53% 45% 2% Democratic Share of Voice (%) March 15, 2015 - January 17, 2016 Clinton Sanders O'Malley 8% 6% 3% 12% 3% 2% 2% 4% 5% 1% 54% Republican Share of Voice (%) March 15, 2015 - January 17, 2016 Bush Carson Christie Cruz Fiorina Huckabee Kasich Paul Rubio Santorum Trump
  9. 9. DEMOCRATIC TIME SERIES 4/12: Clinton announces 10/11: Sanders “MTP” 12/13: Sanders in IA “Weekend of Action” 1/10: Sanders new WSJ/NBC poll showing tight IA race
  10. 10. DEMOCRATIC NET SENTIMENT Note: Net sentiment is measured as the percentage of positive mentions minus the percentage of negative mentions (similar to “net approval” or “net favorability”). Still, NLP does not capture sentiment all that indiscriminately. As such, sarcasm (“that’s sick”), disappointment (“that sucks”), or even descriptive facts (“drops out”) may be included in the mentions count. Net sentiment should, therefore, be seen as a directional and relational indicator rather than an absolute measure. -30.0 -20.0 -10.0 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 Clinton Sanders O'Malley Net Sentiment of Democratic Candidate Mentions (%) March 15, 2015 - January 17, 2016
  11. 11. REPUBLICAN TIME SERIES Note: Legend omits Mike Huckabee (˜2M mentions) & Rick Santorum (˜1M mentions). 12/6: Trump Muslim ban 8/23: Trump on “FTN” 3/23: Cruz announces
  12. 12. REPUBLICAN NET SENTIMENT -25.0 -20.0 -15.0 -10.0 -5.0 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 Bush Carson Christie Cruz Fiorina Huckabee Kasich Paul Rubio Santorum Trump Net Sentiment of Republican Candidate Mentions (%) March 15, 2015 - January 17, 2016 Note: Net sentiment is measured as the percentage of positive mentions minus the percentage of negative mentions (similar to “net approval” or “net favorability”). Still, NLP does not capture sentiment all that indiscriminately. As such, sarcasm (“that’s sick”), disappointment (“that sucks”), or even descriptive facts (“drops out”) may be included in the mentions count. Net sentiment should, therefore, be seen as a directional and relational indicator rather than an absolute measure.
  13. 13. DEMOCRATS: WHO IS TALKING ABOUT WHOM? Candidates Mainstream Media March 15, 2015– January 17, 2016 Social Media March 15, 2015– January 17, 2016 Hillary Clinton 2,904,724 22,142,360 Bernie Sanders 946,176 20,047,087 Martin O’Malley 299,421 521,074 0 5,000,000 10,000,000 15,000,000 20,000,000 25,000,000 Clinton Sanders O'Malley TotalMentions Total Media Mentions March 15, 2015 - January 17, 2016 Mainstream Media Social Media
  14. 14. REPUBLICANS: WHO IS TALKING ABOUT WHOM? Candidates Mainstream Media March 15, 2015- January 17, 2016 Social Media March 15, 2015- January 17, 2016 Jeb Bush 1,278,863 6,491,908 Ben Carson 822,954 5,748,822 Chris Christie 547,942 2,392,533 Ted Cruz 942,931 11,702,122 Carly Fiorina 466,409 2,767,636 Mike Huckabee 326,490 1,743,790 John Kasich 354,065 1,874,809 Rand Paul 538,738 3,992,459 Marco Rubio 889,780 4,583,385 Rick Santorum 177,156 877,547 Donald Trump 2,844,943 54,582,681 Trump: Off the chart again (see table) 0.00 2,000,000.00 4,000,000.00 6,000,000.00 8,000,000.00 10,000,000.00 12,000,000.00 14,000,000.00 TotalMentions Total Media Mentions March 15, 2015 - January 17, 2016 Mainstream Media Social Media
  15. 15. PART TWO Social media activity by the candidates and their campaigns.
  16. 16. TRUMP ON TOP? ECHO CONVERSION RATES Candidates (Descending Order) Echo Conversion (total number of website shares/total number of social media mentions, in % for March 15, 2015 – January 17, 2016) Ted Cruz 5.0 Rand Paul 3.7 Rick Santorum 2.9 Marco Rubio 2.8 Bernie Sanders 2.2 Mike Huckabee 2.1 John Kasich 2.0 Hillary Clinton 1.9 Martin O’Malley 1.5 Carly Fiorina 1.1 Ben Carson 0.5 Jeb Bush 0.5 Donald Trump 0.1 Chris Christie nd Again, Trump is “off the chart.” His social media mentions were over 54M, but his website shares were 61,479 – he comes in second to last on this measure. 0 5,000,000 10,000,000 15,000,000 20,000,000 25,000,000 Social Media Mentions & Website Shares March 15, 2015 - January 17, 2016 Social Media Mentions Website Shares
  17. 17. CANDIDATES SOCIAL MEDIA ACTIVITY 0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 700,000 Social Media Activity of the Candidate/Campaign March 15, 2015 - January 17, 2016 Website Shares Top Campaign Tweet (RTs) Note: Trump did not have one of his own Tweets in the “top Tweet by RT” category. All of the top Tweets involving Trump were negative comments about Trump, and each earned more 30,000 RTs.
  18. 18. QUESTIONS? Graduate School of Political Management @GSPMGWU John Brandt Media Relations johnbrandt@gwu.edu Michael Cornfield Lara Brown Associate Professor Associate Professor corn@gwu.edu larambrown@gwu.edu Zignal Labs @ZignalLabs Pete Eskew D.J. Waldow Head of East Coast Sales Director of Marketing peskew@zignallabs.com djwaldow@zignallabs.com

Editor's Notes

  • Words can affect elections as well as reflect pre-election trends -- to the extent words circulate society and penetrate public consciousness (e.g., 47%).

    Today, whenever words travel online, they can be converted into data. We can measure words circulation:  by volume, over time, across news and social media channels, as connected to other words, even (roughly) according to the sentiment (positive/negative) attached to them.

    Importantly, candidates say many words and campaigns are built around messages. This project is about understanding how those words and messages “play in Peoria.”

    The PEORIA Project follows the candidates and their campaign messages, measuring the public echoes that surface in all types of media.

    The primary research question is: what’s being said about the candidates and their campaigns?
  • Ranking the candidates on all of these metrics.

    Note – highlighted the candidates who have 1s or 2s in RED – basically, Trump wins the “volume” category; Cruz wins the “engagement” category; Carson wins the “sentiment” category. Clinton and Sanders take the 2nd place on all metrics except echo conversion where the two campaigns “underperform” and Rand Paul punches above his weight.
  • This slide – we total the rank that each candidate received on the prior slide – and we have our “semi-visible” primary winners – Cruz & Sanders; runners up are Trump and Clinton. We’ll find out in less than two weeks whether “media volume” (the #2s) bests “online campaign organizing/activist engagement” (the #1s).

    To see the details – scroll through the rest of the deck and its findings.
  • Social media dwarfs mainstream media – and but, it is also fascinating that Clinton received about three times the number of mainstream media mentions as Sanders – whereas, on social media the two were nearly even (Clinton had about 10% more mentions than Sanders).
  • Trump’s numbers too large to include in chart. Notably, Cruz far surpasses his colleagues in terms of social media mentions, yet Bush continued to surpass Cruz in terms of mainstream media mentions.
  • Note – Echo conversion rate is the total # of website shares for the candidate’s website divided by the total number of social media mentions for the candidate. Ted Cruz performed strongly on this engagement-seeking metric. Interestingly, Rand Paul also appears to done well. Of course, it may be better to have 61K website shares than 25K (as Santorum did), than have a higher conversion rate. In essence, perhaps, total number of shots on goal, more important than goals made. A question for our research going forward.
  • In short, were Trump’s 54M mentions on social media a good thing, if his message wasn’t the one being echoed? Also, note, Trump comes in 6th of all the candidates in terms of total number of website shares.
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