Successfully reported this slideshow.
We use your LinkedIn profile and activity data to personalize ads and to show you more relevant ads. You can change your ad preferences anytime.

Peoria 1 final

11,451 views

Published on

The inaugural PEORIA Project from George Washington University's Graduate School of Political Management, measuring how presidential candidates' messages are resonating and being echoed by the public.

Published in: Government & Nonprofit
  • Be the first to comment

Peoria 1 final

  1. 1. MEDIA WEEKENDS AT BERNIE’S (AND OTHER HIGHLIGHTS OF THE FIRST WAVE OF PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDAT E ANNOUNCEMENTS) ASSOCIATE PROFESSOR MICHAEL CORNFIELD & ASSOCIATE PROFESSOR LARA BROWN RELEASE DATE: MAY 28, 2015
  2. 2. How do we know who’s winning before the votes come in?
  3. 3. We follow polls, money, and endorsements. Now, we follow
  4. 4. Using Zignal Labs’ platform, GSPM tracks the mainstream and social media echoes of the and their .
  5. 5. PART ONE Summary and comparative metrics of the announced candidates.
  6. 6. TOTAL MENTIONS Candidates Announcement Date Ted Cruz March 23 Rand Paul April 7 Hillary Clinton April 12 Marco Rubio April 13 Bernie Sanders April 30 Ben Carson May 4 Carly Fiorina May 4 Mike Huckabee May 5
  7. 7. Candidates (In announcement order) Announced Only Announced & Likely Candidates Republicans Only Democrats Only Ted Cruz 25 20 33 -- Rand Paul 10 8 14 -- Hillary Clinton 47 38 -- 95 Marco Rubio 11 9 14 -- Bernie Sanders 1 1 -- 2 Ben Carson 3 2 4 -- Carly Fiorina 1 1 1 -- Mike Huckabee 2 2 3 -- Currently unannounced Jeb Bush -- 8 14 -- Scott Walker -- 5 8 -- Chris Christie -- 4 7 -- Rick Perry -- 1 2 -- Martin O’Malley -- 1 -- 2 Jim Webb -- <1 -- 1 Lincoln Chafee -- <1 -- <1 SHARE OF VOICE
  8. 8. SHARE OF VOICE Candidates (In announcement order) Mainstream Media Social Media Ted Cruz 19 27 Rand Paul 14 10 Hillary Clinton 43 47 Marco Rubio 15 10 Bernie Sanders 1 1 Ben Carson 3 3 Carly Fiorina <1 1 Mike Huckabee 5 2
  9. 9. ANNOUNCEMENT ECHO
  10. 10. ANNOUNCEMENT ECHO Candidates (In announcement order) Announcement Echo Dates Total Mentions During Echo Share of Voice During Echo (in %) Positive Mentions During Echo Negative Mentions During Echo Net Sentiment (%positive – %negative, in %) Ted Cruz March 23-28 1,777,644 80 271,682 264,831 1.2 Rand Paul April 7-11 487,545 46 87,775 115,548 -13.6 Hillary Clinton April 12-18 1,970,930 68 466,457 270,145 26.6 Marco Rubio April 13-16 448,956 27 82,157 84,398 -1.4 Bernie Sanders April 30-May2 35 <1 1 0 nd Ben Carson May 4-5 114,772 27 68,546 57,365 8.8 Carly Fiorina May 4-5 21,328 5 4,783 3,545 14.8 Mike Huckabee May 4-5 93,979 26 15,770 21,219 -14.8
  11. 11. ANNOUNCEMENT ECHO
  12. 12. THE CHANGING SHARE OF VOICE
  13. 13. THE CHANGING SENTIMENT
  14. 14. MEDIA WEEKENDS AT BERNIE’S Bernie’s Sunday Show: This Week Appearance (Saturday, May 2 – Monday, May 4) Bernie’s Sunday Show: Face The Nation Appearance (Saturday, May 9 – Monday, May 11) Total Mentions 4,523 15,878 Positive Mentions 718 3,083 Negative Mentions 469 1,666 Net Sentiment (%positive – %negative, in percent) 20 30 Website Shares 1,781 538
  15. 15. POPULAR ECHO TWEET Candidates (In announcement order) Tweet Author Most Popular Tweet During Announcement Echo Tweet Shares Ted Cruz Ted Cruz I'm running for President and I hope to earn your support! http://t.co/0UTqaIoytP @tedcruz 12,547 Rand Paul BBC News Senator Rand Paul becomes second Republican to announce bid for US presidential race http://t.co/VuU1Eyg94m http://t.co/7XkW9g1fgI @BBCBreaking 6,868 Hillary Clinton Hillary Clinton I'm running for president. Everyday Americans need a champion, and I want to be that champion. –H https://t.co/w8Hoe1pbtC @HillaryClinton 94,519 Marco Rubio Daniel Kibblesmith Nice try "Marco Rubio" — or should I say... [rearranges letters] "BIRAC UBOMA" [audience gasps] @kibblesmith 9,482 Bernie Sanders Bernie Sanders I am running for President of the United States because America needs a political revolution. Join our campaign: https://t.co/e7qc6g5Qwf @BernieSanders 1,666 Ben Carson Ben Carson I'm in it! @RealBenCarson 3,064 Carly Fiorina Carly Fiorina I am running for President. http://t.co/TiEAlrWpUc @CarlyFiorina 1,101 Mike Huckabee Dylan Hailey Mike Huckabee breaks the law on day one of his campaign, he can't even follow simple rules, why should we trust him? http://t.co/d1EO8X0VmJ @TibitXimer 2,002
  16. 16. CAMPAIGN WEBSITE SHARES
  17. 17. ECHO CONVERSION RATE – AN IMPORTANT PAYOFF Candidates (In announcement order) Announcement Date Total Mentions (March 15 – May 15) Chatter Volume (# of mentions above/below mean # of mentions, March 15 – May 15) Total Website Shares in 60 days (March 15 – May 15) 60-day Echo Conversion Rate (Total Website Shares/Total Mentions, in %) Ted Cruz March 23 2,583,637 1,294,311 85,355 3.3 Rand Paul April 7 1,068,778 -220,548 23,772 2.2 Hillary Clinton April 12 4,826,745 3,537,419 173,342 3.6 Marco Rubio April 13 1,104,881 -184,445 24,238 2.2 Bernie Sanders April 30 92,270 -1,197,056 8,213 8.9 Ben Carson May 4 318,510 -970,816 1,724 0.5 Carly Fiorina May 4 65,610 -1,223,716 2,670 4.1 Mike Huckabee May 5 254,176 -1,035,150 8,576 3.4
  18. 18. PART TWO Emerging Brands – what word clouds tell us about each announced candidate.
  19. 19. TED CRUZ (3/15-5/15)
  20. 20. RAND PAUL (3/15-5/15)
  21. 21. HILLARY CLINTON (3/15-5/15)
  22. 22. MARCO RUBIO (3/15-5/15)
  23. 23. BERNIE SANDERS (3/15-5/15)
  24. 24. BEN CARSON (3/15–5/15)
  25. 25. CARLY FIORINA (3/15-5/15)
  26. 26. MIKE HUCKABEE (3/15-5/15)
  27. 27. GSPM ECHO RATING MARCH 15 – MAY 15, 2015 Candidates (In announcement order) GSPM Echo Rating (for each candidate’s announcement and for the 60-day period) Ted Cruz 7 Rand Paul 5 Hillary Clinton 8 Marco Rubio 5 Bernie Sanders* 4 Ben Carson 2 Carly Fiorina 3 Mike Huckabee 3 * = Sanders formal announcement was a “1” but his follow-on weekends were highly successful and raised his overall rating to a “4.”
  28. 28. QUESTIONS? Graduate School of Political Management Michael Cornfield Lara Brown Associate Professor Associate Professor corn@gwu.edu larambrown@gwu.edu Zignal Labs Pete Eskew D.J. Waldow Senior Account Executive Director of Marketing peskew@zignallabs.com djwaldow@zignallabs.com

×