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One Health As A Tool to Strengthen Interactions Between Risk Modelling And Veterinary And Human Public Health

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GRF 2nd One Health Summit 2013: Presentation by VANWAMBEKE, Sophie O, Université catholique de Louvain

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One Health As A Tool to Strengthen Interactions Between Risk Modelling And Veterinary And Human Public Health

  1. 1. One health as a tool to strengthen interactions between risk modelling and veterinary and human public health Sophie O. Vanwambeke, UCLouvain Katrien Tersago, Uantwerp Luigi Sedda, UOxford
  2. 2. Needs for public health • Accurate info in summarized form, eg: early warning, risk vs. non risk,… accounting for changing human behaviour • Rapid and excellent interconnections between all actors: practitioners, PH agencies, modellers
  3. 3. Modelling today AUC? ROC? GLM? GWR? AIC? BIC? • Modellers absorbed by modelling • Entry points into modelling often diverse • Modelling methods and data sets, while more broadly accessible, are also getting more complex. • Diversity of outcomes (eg maximise info vs. Minimise error)
  4. 4. An example: hantavirus Minimize error strategy: prediction Sedda and Tersago, in progress Maximise information: explore environmental determinants Zeimes et al, 2012 EDENext steering committee meeting, Budapest, 31 March 2011 5
  5. 5. How can one health help • Support interpretation of factors and complex processes represented in models for zoonotic diseases • Facilitate communication across disciplines • Optimise use of resources for surveillance and control • EDENext!
  6. 6. Lessons learned • Modellers should communicate better, from the onset, on PH knowledge of the system, and on information content of modelling results. • Modellers should highlight better the PH relevant information of model outputs Questions asked • How do modellers need to change their modelling practice? • What does risk -as a modelling output- mean? How to come up with model outputs relevant to risk assessment?

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