Using Disaster Propagation Model to  Study Rainfall Impact on Regional                   Freeway Network   Jiayuan YE, Sai...
Introduction   Transportation       Critical Infrastructure            Essential for the functioning of society and eco...
Concept Model     4th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC Davos 2012    "Integrative Risk Management in a Cha...
Rainfall Impactmm 8              Hourly Precipitation                                                                     ...
Recovery Process & Impact Propagation              1                      2                      3                      4...
Case Study on Traffic Network             Model Assessment
Data & Process - Precipitation   Precipitation Data       Hourly precipitation intensity       6-hourly precipitation i...
Data & Process – Travel time     4th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC Davos 2012    "Integrative Risk Mana...
Model Result Analysis  12:02:18 AM                     Passenger Cars  12:02:01 AM  12:01:44 AM  12:01:26 AMTravel Time  ...
Model Result Analysis  12:02:36 AM                     Trucks  12:02:18 AM  12:02:01 AM  12:01:44 AMTravel Time  12:01:26...
Discussion & Conclusion   Discussion       Regional Travel Time Estimation       Time Penalty Risk Analysis           ...
Using disaster propagation model to study rainfall impact on regional freeway network
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Using disaster propagation model to study rainfall impact on regional freeway network

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Jiayuan YE1, Saini YANG1, Xuechi ZHANG2, Shuai HE1

1State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, China, People's Republic of; 2College of Information Science and Technology, Beijing Normal University, China, People's Republic of

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Using disaster propagation model to study rainfall impact on regional freeway network

  1. 1. Using Disaster Propagation Model to Study Rainfall Impact on Regional Freeway Network Jiayuan YE, Saini YANG, Xuechi ZHANG, Shuai HE Beijing Normal University
  2. 2. Introduction Transportation  Critical Infrastructure  Essential for the functioning of society and economy  Heavily impacted by disastrous event causing direct and indirect losses Rainfall Impact on Highway Traffic Network  Typical hazard in Southeast China  Modeling rainfall impact on travel time  System interdependency  Accumulated effects of rainfall impact  Travel delay analysis and estimation 4th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC Davos 2012 "Integrative Risk Management in a Changing World - Pathways to a Resilient Society" 26-30 August 2012 Davos, Switzerland
  3. 3. Concept Model 4th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC Davos 2012 "Integrative Risk Management in a Changing World - Pathways to a Resilient Society" 26-30 August 2012 Davos, Switzerland
  4. 4. Rainfall Impactmm 8 Hourly Precipitation 10% Hourly Rainfall Impact Rainfall impact 6 8% 4 6% 2 4% 2% 0 Precipitation 1 2 3 0% Time series 1 Time 2 series 3 Assumption (Uniform distributed) 1.8%mm Sub-hourly Rainfall Impact0.7 Sub-hourly Precipitation 1.6%0.6 1.4%0.5 1.2%0.4 1.0% 0.8%0.3 0.6%0.2 0.4%0.1 0.2% 0 0.0% 1.1 1.5 1.9 2.3 2.7 3.1 3.5 3.9 1.1 1.5 1.9 2.3 2.7 3.1 3.5 3.9 Time Series Time Series 4th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC Davos 2012 "Integrative Risk Management in a Changing World - Pathways to a Resilient Society" 26-30 August 2012 Davos, Switzerland
  5. 5. Recovery Process & Impact Propagation 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Traffic flow direction 4th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC Davos 2012 "Integrative Risk Management in a Changing World - Pathways to a Resilient Society" 26-30 August 2012 Davos, Switzerland
  6. 6. Case Study on Traffic Network Model Assessment
  7. 7. Data & Process - Precipitation Precipitation Data  Hourly precipitation intensity  6-hourly precipitation intensity Spatial interpolation of Precipitation  Inverse Distance Weight Method (IDWM)  Ordinary Kriging Method (OKM) Meteorological IDWM OKM Station No. MAE MSE MAE MSE 59287 5.77 107.48 6.09 102.77 59478 5.00 56.61 4.98 56.15 59271 5.57 113.66 6.70 144.37 59462 4.23 40.27 5.07 52.47 Mean 5.14 79.50 5.71 88.94 4th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC Davos 2012 "Integrative Risk Management in a Changing World - Pathways to a Resilient Society" 26-30 August 2012 Davos, Switzerland
  8. 8. Data & Process – Travel time 4th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC Davos 2012 "Integrative Risk Management in a Changing World - Pathways to a Resilient Society" 26-30 August 2012 Davos, Switzerland
  9. 9. Model Result Analysis 12:02:18 AM  Passenger Cars 12:02:01 AM 12:01:44 AM 12:01:26 AMTravel Time 12:01:09 AM Error 12:00:52 AM Upper Bound of 95% confidence Interval Lower Bound of 95% confidence Interval 12:00:35 AM Mean Travel Time Model Result 12:00:17 AM 12:00:00 AM 1 25 49 73 97 121 145 169 193 217 241 265 289 313 337 Hourly Time Series  68.46% estimated travel time of 241 records are in the range of 95% confidence interval  Relative error value varies from -19.23%~24.15%  mean value of overestimated relative error is 5.71%  mean value of underestimated relative error is 6.73% 4th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC Davos 2012 "Integrative Risk Management in a Changing World - Pathways to a Resilient Society" 26-30 August 2012 Davos, Switzerland
  10. 10. Model Result Analysis 12:02:36 AM  Trucks 12:02:18 AM 12:02:01 AM 12:01:44 AMTravel Time 12:01:26 AM Error 12:01:09 AM Upper Bound of 95% confidence Interval 12:00:52 AM Lower Bound of 95% confidence Interval Mean Travel Time 12:00:35 AM Model Result 12:00:17 AM 12:00:00 AM 1 25 49 73 97 121 145 169 193 217 241 265 289 313 337 Hourly Time Series  59.61% estimated travel time of 307 records are in the range of 95% confidence interval  Relative error value varies from -18.70%~26.51%  mean value of overestimated relative error is 5.98%  mean value of underestimated relative error is 6.00% 4th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC Davos 2012 "Integrative Risk Management in a Changing World - Pathways to a Resilient Society" 26-30 August 2012 Davos, Switzerland
  11. 11. Discussion & Conclusion Discussion  Regional Travel Time Estimation  Time Penalty Risk Analysis  Probability Distribution of Precipitation  Accurate disaster character data in high temporal-resolution Conclusion  Regional highway network travel time estimation in the condition of adverse weather  Fast evaluation of disaster impact immediately after disaster  Indirect loss assessment of transportation by disastrous events  Extended study of disastrous events impact on integrated CI systems 4th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC Davos 2012 "Integrative Risk Management in a Changing World - Pathways to a Resilient Society" 26-30 August 2012 Davos, Switzerland

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