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Understanding your risk environment

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Sean MURPHY

Lootok, United States of America

Published in: Education, Business, Sports
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Understanding your risk environment

  1. 1. UNDERSTANDING YOUR RISK ENVIRONMENT SUN1.4 SESSION CHAIR: SEAN MURPHY
  2. 2. April 16-18, 2012 • Talking Stick Resort • Scottsdale, Arizona Lootok is the Hopi word for“The Day After Tomorrow.” Our mission is to help companies optimally manage and respond to threats.
  3. 3. April 16-18, 2012 • Talking Stick Resort • Scottsdale, Arizona Yes, we’re a bit different than most consulting companies. Activity-Based Business Continuity Research-Based Cognitive Data Collection Program Branding Learning TechniquesUNDERSTANDING YOURRISK ENVIRONMENT
  4. 4. April 16-18, 2012 • Talking Stick Resort • Scottsdale, Arizona Do you know what’s out there?UNDERSTANDING YOURRISK ENVIRONMENT
  5. 5. April 16-18, 2012 • Talking Stick Resort • Scottsdale, Arizona Our recipe for disasterRisk = Asset + Threat + VulnerabilityUNDERSTANDING YOURRISK ENVIRONMENT
  6. 6. April 16-18, 2012 • Talking Stick Resort • Scottsdale, Arizona Three types of threat actors Natural Natural Accidental IntentionalUNDERSTANDING YOURRISK ENVIRONMENT
  7. 7. April 16-18, 2012 • Talking Stick Resort • Scottsdale, Arizona Three types of threat actors Natural Natural Accidental Intentional Goal: preparedness What can we do? monitoring & exercisingUNDERSTANDING YOURRISK ENVIRONMENT
  8. 8. April 16-18, 2012 • Talking Stick Resort • Scottsdale, Arizona Three types of threat actors Natural Natural Accidental Intentional Goal: Goal: preparedness prevention What can we do? What can we do? monitoring & training & exercising vigilanceUNDERSTANDING YOURRISK ENVIRONMENT
  9. 9. April 16-18, 2012 • Talking Stick Resort • Scottsdale, Arizona Three types of threat actors Natural Natural Accidental Intentional Goal: Goal: Goal: preparedness prevention elimination What can we do? What can we do? What can we do? monitoring & training & deterrence & exercising vigilance precautionary measuresUNDERSTANDING YOURRISK ENVIRONMENT
  10. 10. April 16-18, 2012 • Talking Stick Resort • Scottsdale, Arizona Brainstorming ThreatsUNDERSTANDING YOURRISK ENVIRONMENT
  11. 11. UNDERSTANDING YOURRISK ENVIRONMENT
  12. 12. April 16-18, 2012 • Talking Stick Resort • Scottsdale, Arizona Why are we here? Risks that do not happen often, Risks that happen often, but have a big impact. and have a big impact. Risks that do not happen often, Risks that happen often, and do not have a big impact. but do not have a big impact.UNDERSTANDING YOURRISK ENVIRONMENT
  13. 13. April 16-18, 2012 • Talking Stick Resort • Scottsdale, Arizona Transfer your threats onto post-its. Tornado Contamination Computer Virus Wildfire Utilities Outage Theft Hurricane IT System Down Terroism Explosion Government Issues Sabotage Tornado Government Explosion IssuesUNDERSTANDING YOURRISK ENVIRONMENT
  14. 14. April 16-18, 2012 • Talking Stick Resort • Scottsdale, Arizona Place your threats onto the matrix.UNDERSTANDING YOURRISK ENVIRONMENT
  15. 15. April 16-18, 2012 • Talking Stick Resort • Scottsdale, Arizona How can we use the Risk Matrix? Debrief • What does the Risk Matrix give us? • What are challenges with the Risk Matrix?UNDERSTANDING YOURRISK ENVIRONMENT
  16. 16. April 16-18, 2012 • Talking Stick Resort • Scottsdale, Arizona Why are we here? Risks that do not happen often, Risks that happen often, but have a big impact. and have a big impact. Risks that do not happen often, Risks that happen often, and do not have a big impact. but do not have a big impact.UNDERSTANDING YOURRISK ENVIRONMENT
  17. 17. April 16-18, 2012 • Talking Stick Resort • Scottsdale, Arizona The 7 R’s of Resiliency™ • Relocate • Reassign Resiliency • Repair and Replace • Replicate Strategies • • Risk Transfer Reinforce • RelinquishUNDERSTANDING YOURRISK ENVIRONMENT
  18. 18. April 16-18, 2012 • Talking Stick Resort • Scottsdale, Arizona Strategy Option: Relocate • Physically move people and resources to work from another location - home, sister company, business partner site, etc. • Good for office areas with no specialized equipmentUNDERSTANDING YOURRISK ENVIRONMENT
  19. 19. April 16-18, 2012 • Talking Stick Resort • Scottsdale, Arizona Strategy Option: Reassign • Work is performed by a team at a different location or business partner • Good for processes that are very standardized • Allows local team to work on recoveryUNDERSTANDING YOURRISK ENVIRONMENT
  20. 20. April 16-18, 2012 • Talking Stick Resort • Scottsdale, Arizona Strategy Option: Repair & Replace • Repair and replace damaged assets at time of disruption • No advance expenditure • Indicates acceptance of downtime – only for non-critical processes • May be more costly to replace and repair than to reinforce or risk transferUNDERSTANDING YOURRISK ENVIRONMENT
  21. 21. April 16-18, 2012 • Talking Stick Resort • Scottsdale, Arizona How can we use the 7 R’s™? Debrief • What does the 7R’s give us? • What are the challenges with the 7R’s?UNDERSTANDING YOURRISK ENVIRONMENT
  22. 22. April 16-18, 2012 • Talking Stick Resort • Scottsdale, Arizona When it comes to risk, perception is reality.UNDERSTANDING YOURRISK ENVIRONMENT
  23. 23. April 16-18, 2012 • Talking Stick Resort • Scottsdale, ArizonaUNDERSTANDING YOURRISK ENVIRONMENT
  24. 24. RISK x x PerceptionUNDERSTANDING YOURRISK ENVIRONMENT
  25. 25. April 16-18, 2012 • Talking Stick Resort • Scottsdale, Arizona Let’s put your risk perception to the test. 1. Compare the two events. 2. Place a sticker by the one you believe is the higher estimate.UNDERSTANDING YOURRISK ENVIRONMENT
  26. 26. April 16-18, 2012 • Talking Stick Resort • Scottsdale, ArizonaUNDERSTANDING YOURRISK ENVIRONMENT
  27. 27. April 16-18, 2012 • Talking Stick Resort • Scottsdale, Arizona Scale People Hurt Dread When more people are affected by a single incident, dread increases.UNDERSTANDING YOURRISK ENVIRONMENT
  28. 28. April 16-18, 2012 • Talking Stick Resort • Scottsdale, Arizona 2010 Haiti earthquake Fire-related incidents 200,000 deaths 300,000 global annual deathsUNDERSTANDING YOURRISK ENVIRONMENT
  29. 29. April 16-18, 2012 • Talking Stick Resort • Scottsdale, Arizona Immediacy Immediacy Dread When time passes before negative consequences of the risk occur, dread decreases.UNDERSTANDING YOURRISK ENVIRONMENT
  30. 30. April 16-18, 2012 • Talking Stick Resort • Scottsdale, Arizona 2011 Queensland floods Global warming >$30 billion in damage $ in damage?UNDERSTANDING YOURRISK ENVIRONMENT
  31. 31. April 16-18, 2012 • Talking Stick Resort • Scottsdale, Arizona Imaginability Imaginability Dread When a risk is easy to imagine, dread increases.UNDERSTANDING YOURRISK ENVIRONMENT
  32. 32. April 16-18, 2012 • Talking Stick Resort • Scottsdale, Arizona Foodborne illness Drowning 1,800,000 400,000 annual global deaths annual global deathsUNDERSTANDING YOURRISK ENVIRONMENT
  33. 33. April 16-18, 2012 • Talking Stick Resort • Scottsdale, Arizona
  34. 34. April 16-18, 2012 • Talking Stick Resort • Scottsdale, Arizona Personal Control Control Dread When we feel we are not in control of a risk, dread increases.UNDERSTANDING YOURRISK ENVIRONMENT
  35. 35. April 16-18, 2012 • Talking Stick Resort • Scottsdale, Arizona Car accidents Plane crashes ~ 1,300,000 ~ 1,500 annual global deaths annual global deathsUNDERSTANDING YOURRISK ENVIRONMENT
  36. 36. April 16-18, 2012 • Talking Stick Resort • Scottsdale, Arizona Lack of Choice Choice Dread When we feel we don’t have a choice, dread increases. 36UNDERSTANDING YOUR 36RISK ENVIRONMENT
  37. 37. April 16-18, 2012 • Talking Stick Resort • Scottsdale, Arizona Shark attacks Skin cancer ~ 6 annual global deaths ~ 48,000 annual global deathsUNDERSTANDING YOURRISK ENVIRONMENT
  38. 38. April 16-18, 2012 • Talking Stick Resort • Scottsdale, Arizona Unfairness Randomness Dread When a risk affects people at random, dread increases.UNDERSTANDING YOURRISK ENVIRONMENT
  39. 39. April 16-18, 2012 • Talking Stick Resort • Scottsdale, Arizona Swine flu Seasonal flu ~ 20,000 ~ 250,000-500,000 global deaths annual global deathsUNDERSTANDING YOURRISK ENVIRONMENT
  40. 40. April 16-18, 2012 • Talking Stick Resort • Scottsdale, Arizona Lack of Familiarity ? Familiarity Dread When we are not familiar with a risk, dread increases.UNDERSTANDING YOUR 40RISK ENVIRONMENT
  41. 41. April 16-18, 2012 • Talking Stick Resort • Scottsdale, Arizona Annual lightning fatalities: around 24,000 deaths, 240,000 injuries Lightning Plane crashes 24,000 1,500 annual global deaths annual global deaths Annual lightning fatalities: around 24,000 deaths, 240,000 injuriesUNDERSTANDING YOURRISK ENVIRONMENT
  42. 42. April 16-18, 2012 • Talking Stick Resort • Scottsdale, ArizonaUNDERSTANDING YOURRISK ENVIRONMENT
  43. 43. April 16-18, 2012 • Talking Stick Resort • Scottsdale, Arizona Untrustworthy Origin Man-made origin Dread When a risk comes from an origin we do not trust, dread increases.UNDERSTANDING YOURRISK ENVIRONMENT
  44. 44. April 16-18, 2012 • Talking Stick Resort • Scottsdale, Arizona Leakage from BP Oil Spill Annual leakage from runoff, improper motor oil disposal, and pollution 5 million gallons 500 million gallonsUNDERSTANDING YOURRISK ENVIRONMENT
  45. 45. April 16-18, 2012 • Talking Stick Resort • Scottsdale, Arizona Media Coverage Media coverage Dread When there is a lot of media coverage of an incident, dread increases.UNDERSTANDING YOUR 45RISK ENVIRONMENT
  46. 46. April 16-18, 2012 • Talking Stick Resort • Scottsdale, Arizona Diabetes Car crashes 4.6 million 1.2 million annual global deaths annual global deathsUNDERSTANDING YOURRISK ENVIRONMENT 4
  47. 47. April 16-18, 2012 • Talking Stick Resort • Scottsdale, Arizona Guns Obesity 30,000 100,000 annual U.S. deaths annual U.S. deathsUNDERSTANDING YOURRISK ENVIRONMENT
  48. 48. April 16-18, 2012 • Talking Stick Resort • Scottsdale, Arizona Risk Processing In an incident, our stress levels can skyrocket above what our systems are used to dealing with.UNDERSTANDING YOURRISK ENVIRONMENT
  49. 49. April 16-18, 2012 • Talking Stick Resort • Scottsdale, Arizona Sources of Stress • Your values are threatened • You don’t feel in control of what happens • You don’t know that what you are doing is “right” • You don’t have enough information, and can’t get it • You are operating under the pressure of time What are some traditional sources of daily stress? What about during an incident?UNDERSTANDING YOURRISK ENVIRONMENT
  50. 50. April 16-18, 2012 • Talking Stick Resort • Scottsdale, Arizona Sources of Stress: Person-Role Conflict Individual, Work Environment, Family, Home Tasks, Role Person-Role ConflictUNDERSTANDING YOURRISK ENVIRONMENT
  51. 51. April 16-18, 2012 • Talking Stick Resort • Scottsdale, Arizona Reduced Mental Capability for Processing MessagesUNDERSTANDING YOURRISK ENVIRONMENT
  52. 52. April 16-18, 2012 • Talking Stick Resort • Scottsdale, Arizona Impact on Decision-Making “Cognitive Lock-In” “Task Saturation” “Groupthink” Sticking with your first Focusing on small problems Putting the well-being decision, no matter what and losing sight of the big of the group above picture making the right decisionUNDERSTANDING YOURRISK ENVIRONMENT
  53. 53. April 16-18, 2012 • Talking Stick Resort • Scottsdale, Arizona This isn’t happening. What should I do? What are you going to do? What do you want me to do? Let me help you.UNDERSTANDING YOURRISK ENVIRONMENT
  54. 54. April 16-18, 2012 • Talking Stick Resort • Scottsdale, Arizona 54

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