The Climate Crisis

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The Climate Crisis

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The Climate Crisis

  1. 1. The Climate Crisis Prof. Stefan Rahmstorf Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research Foto: S. Rahmstorf
  2. 2. Rise of CO 2 concentration
  3. 3. Oceans are getting acidic <ul><li>Acidification by CO 2 threatens marine ecosystems </li></ul>Plankton Korallenriffe
  4. 4. CO 2 is a Greenhouse Gas “ Climate Sensitivity” Arrhenius 1896 (4-6 ºC ) 3 ± 1 ºC Human-caused forcing until now should have caused 0,7 – 0,9 ºC warming
  5. 5. Global Temperature Global warming predicted (Sawyer, Nature 1972 , Broecker, Science 1975 )
  6. 6. Global Temperature in April 2010 1880-1920
  7. 7. Solar activit y We’re in the longest and deepest minimum of solar activity since at least 30 years.
  8. 8. The next 100 years A2 B1 A1FI High Emissions Lower Emissions
  9. 10. 1979
  10. 11. 2007
  11. 12. Shrinking Arctic Sea Ice 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 Year 0 2 4 6 8 10 Ice Area (Sept. minimum), millions of km 2 Observations IPCC models Model range 2009?
  12. 13. M u e l l e r G l a c i e r
  13. 14. Sea Level Rise Tide Gauges Gauges: Church & White Satellite: Cazenave et al. Sizewell B nuclear power station, Great Britain 20 cm rise since 1880
  14. 15. Rising Faster than Expected
  15. 16. Melting corresponds to 7 m global sea level rise! Greenland
  16. 17. Recent Sea Level Estimates Delta Comm. WBGU Data Data: Church and White (2006) Scenarios 2100: 50 – 140 cm (Rahmstorf 2007) 55 – 110 cm (“high end”, Delta Commission 2008) Scenarios 2200: 150 – 350 cm (“high end”, Delta Commission 2008) Scenarios 2300: 250 – 510 cm (German Advisory Council on Global Change, WBGU, 2006) Rahmstorf
  17. 18. Impacts of sea level rise Han, main island of Carteret-Atoll Tuvalu Birma, Typhoon Nargis (2008)
  18. 19. The 2 ºC Guardrail A2 B1 A1FI 2 ºC limit
  19. 20. <ul><li>To stay below 2 ºC (with probability 75%) we can still emit </li></ul><ul><li>700 Gt CO 2 </li></ul><ul><li>until 2050. </li></ul><ul><li>At current rate we will have used up this budget in 20 years. </li></ul>Meinshausen et al 2009
  20. 21. Thank you for listening! Foto: S. Rahmstorf

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