GRF One Health Summit 2012, Davos: Presentation by Carl BEIERKUHNLEIN, University of Bayreuth, Germany, Federal Republic of

1. Potential Spread of
Vector Borne Diseases
in Face of Climate Change
Carl BEIERKUHNLEIN,
Stephanie THOMAS, Dominik FISCHER
Department of Biogeography,
University of Bayreuth, Germany
One Health Summit, Davos, CH, 2012

2. Decision Making
Beierkuhnlein C & Foken T 2008. Regional Climate Change and Adaptation Strategies for the State
of Bavaria. BayCEER 113: 500 pp. (in German)

3. Vectors
Arthropod vectors for human pathogens are
expected to spread due to changes in :
 temperature
 precipitation Climate
Change
 climatic variability (extremes)
 functional connectivity between continents

4. Case Studies / Diseases
Aedes albopictus
 Dengue
 Chikungunya
Phlebotomus spp.
 Visceral Leismaniasis

5. 1.) Connect 2.) Identify 3.) Relate to
climatic variables / bioclimatic climate change
presence records envelopes projections
IPCC scenarios
Humidity
Temperature
COSMO CLM
REMO
WETTREG
STAR
Fischer D, Thomas SM, Beierkuhnlein C 2010: Climate change effects on vector-borne diseases in Europe.
Nova Acta Leopoldina 112 (384): 99-107.

6. Ae. albopictus Dengue Virus

7. Aedes albopictus Risk Projection – Geostatistical
Fischer D, Thomas SM, Niemitz F, Reineking B, Beierkuhnlein C 2011 Projection of climatic suitability for Aedes
albopictus Skuse (Culicidae) in Europe under climate change conditions. Global Planetary Change 78: 54-64

8. Shifts in Bioclimatic Envelopes
Differences in climatic
conditions exposed to Aedes
albopictus between its native
and its invaded range
Native populations (SE Asia)
Invasive except Europe
Europe
Fischer D, Thomas SM, Niemitz F, Reineking B, Beierkuhnlein C 2011: Projection of climatic suitability for Aedes
albopictus Skuse (Culicidae) in Europe under climate change conditions. Global Planetary Change 78: 54-64

9. Aedes albopictus establishment combined with
lilkelihood of Dengue amplification
dengue amplification unfulfilled
Vector establishment unfulfilled
Vector almost fulfilled + dengue
Vector fulfilled + dengue
Thomas S M, Fischer D, Fleischmann S, Bittner T and Beierkuhnlein C 2011 Risk assessment of dengue virus
amplification in Europe based on spatio-temporal high resolution climate change projections Erdkunde 65 137-150

10. Aedes albopictus establishment combined with
lilkelihood of Dengue amplification
dengue amplification unfulfilled
Vector establishment unfulfilled
Vector almost fulfilled + dengue
Vector fulfilled + dengue

12. Current probability of dispersal of Aedes albopictus
by ship transport of goods inward EU from infested countries
currently

13. Projected probability of dispersal of Aedes albopictus
by ship transport of goods inward EU from infested countries
Vector requ.
Containers
In the first half of the century Italian seaports and Bilbao
provide climatic suitable conditions for Aedes albopictus,
from mid-century on this is true for Hamburg and Rotterdam.

14. Dengue and Chikungunya
for 2011 – 2040 period, based on IPCC A1B, geostatistical
Dengue Chikungunya

15. Case Studies / Diseases
Aedes albopictus
 Dengue
 Chikungunya
Phlebotomus spp.
 Visceral Leismaniasis

16. Bioclimatic suitability for Phlebotomus species
70 % training points
30 % test points
AUC-values > 0.9
For A1B-scenario and Cosmo
CLM regional climate model
(based on ECHAM5)

17. Bioclimatic suitability for Phlebotomus species
70 % training points
30 % test points
AUC-values > 0.9
Maxent considers „presence only“ points but no For A1B-scenario and Cosmo
CLM regional climate model
confirmed absence data.
(based on ECHAM5)

18. Bioclimatic suitability for Phlebotomus species A1B vs. A2-scenario
Cosmo CLM Regional Model
Fischer D, Thomas SM, Beierkuhnlein C 2010: Temperature-derived potential for the establishment of
phlebotomine sandflies and visceral leishmaniasis in Germany. Geospatial Health 5(1): 59-69.

19. Bioclimatic suitability for Leishmania infantum A1B vs. A2-scenario
Cosmo CLM Regional Model
Fischer D, Thomas SM, Beierkuhnlein C 2010: Temperature-derived potential for the establishment of
phlebotomine sandflies and visceral leishmaniasis in Germany. Geospatial Health 5(1): 59-69.

20. Probability of visceral leishmaniasis A1B vs. A2-scenario
Cosmo CLM Regional Model
Fischer D, Thomas SM, Beierkuhnlein C 2010: Temperature-derived potential for the establishment of
phlebotomine sandflies and visceral leishmaniasis in Germany. Geospatial Health 5(1): 59-69.

21. Moving Targets
Arthropod vectors are short-lived and may
exhibit evolutionary adaptation to novel
environments.
Arboviruses show modifications and the
development of regional variants too.
Average temperature and precipitation values are
insufficient proxies – windows of opportunity and
limitation must be identified.

22. Challenges
• Entomologicial and virological knowledge on climatic
constraints (e.g. for serotypes) is limited (for modeling)
• New IPCC Scenarios are on the way and will result in new
GCMs to be translated into Regional Climate Models
• Human vectors (network, hubs, and intensity of transport
and travelling activities) are changing too
• Human population density and landuse is changing
regionally different but this is not yet integrated in models
• Reservoir hosts have to be modeled too
• Bioclimatic Modeling Algorithms are developing rapidly
(BRT, RF, GLM, GAM) – true absence must be considered

23. Publications
Fischer D, Moeller P, Thomas S, Naucke, TJ, Beierkuhnlein C (2011) Combining climatic
projections and dispersal ability: a method for estimating the responses of sandfly vector
species to climate change. PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, 5(11), e1407
Fischer D, Thomas S, Niemitz F, Reineking, B, Beierkuhnlein C (2011) Projection of climatic
suitability for Aedes albopictus Skuse (Culicidae) in Europe under climate change conditions.
Global and Planetary Change, 78 54-64
Thomas S, Fischer D, Fleischmann S, Bittner T, Beierkuhnlein C (2011) Risk assessment of
dengue virus amplification in Europe based on spatio-temporal high resolution climate
change projections. Erdkunde, 65(2) 137-150 (2011)
Fischer D, Thomas SM, Beierkuhnlein C (2011) Modelling climatic suitability and dispersal for
disease vectors: the example of a phlebotomine sandfly in Europe. Procedia Environmental
Science 7, 164-169.
Fischer D, Thomas S, Beierkuhnlein C (2010) Temperature-derived potential for the
establishment of phlebotomine sandflies and visceral leishmaniasis in Germany. Geospatial
Health, 5(1), 59-69 (2010)
Fischer D, Thomas S, Beierkuhnlein C (2010) Climate Change Effects on Vector-Borne
Diseases in Europe. Nova Acta Leopoldina, 112 (384), 99-107 (2010)

25. Ae. albopictus Dengue Virus
Humidity Temperature

26. Ae. albopictus Dengue Virus
Feuchte Temperatur

27. Ae. albopictus Dengue Virus
Feuchte Temperatur
ships planes
Risk Assessment

28. Phlebotomus perniciosus
Potential current distribution / occurrence
Probability of
occurrence
Geostatistical calculations are based on confirmed locations / climatic data.
70 % training points, 30 % test points, AUC-values > 0.9

29. Least-cost path: Cost distance and cost backlink
P. perniciosus: current situation to upcoming time-period (2011-2040, A1B scenario)
- Cost distance: for orthogonal and diagonal movement
- Cost backlink: direction to the value of least costs for each raster cell
Fischer D, Thomas SM, Beierkuhnlein C 2011: Modelling climatic suitability and dispersal for disease vectors: the
example of a phlebotomine sandfly in Europe. Procedia Environmental Science 3, in press.

30. Cooperation is needed!
Feel encouraged to share data and to contribute
to the improvement of modeling projections.
Medicine
Climatology Population Biology
Entomology
Biogeography Parasitology
Ecology
Ornithology Virology
Human Geography Veterinary Medicine

31. Projected probability of Dengue dispersal by incoming
passengers by plane from endemic countries
Pathogen requ.
Passengers
Until the end of the century most airports (excl. nordic
countries and UK) exhibit thermal conditions that allow
dengue transmission.
Thomas S.M., Fischer D., Beierkuhnlein C.,(in prep.)

32. Dengue Incubation
Extrinsic incubation period
Mosquito Mosquito
bites 8 d at 22°C (Blanc) infected
Virus can be transferred
Days
Extrinsic incubation period
Mosquito Mosquito
bites 12 d at 30°C (Watts) infected
Virus can be transferred
Days
Extrinsic incubation period
Mosquito
bites
7 d at 32-35°C (Watts) Mosquito
infected
Virus can be transferred
Days

33. Biotic Effects of Global Change
Global changes are of many facets that are
influencing the decline but also the spread of
organisms AND pathogens.
Modifications of regional biodiversity patterns
are likely to occur.

34. Risk Assessment in Face of Climate Change
Interacting responses of organisms AND
pathogens have to be considered.
Effects of climatic changes AND of increased
transport and travelling activities must be
integrated.
Additionally

35. Projecting Biotic Responses to Climate Change
has to consider:
• Probabilities of occurrence of windows of
opportunity (based on Scenarios, GCMs,
Regional CMs)
• Human vectors (e.g. transport, travelling
intensity, harbors, airports, roads, railways)
• Human population density
• Physical barriers (relief, DEM)

36. Aedes albopictus
Until 1978

37. Aedes albopictus
until 1990

38. Aedes albopictus
until 2000

39. Aedes albopictus
In 2009

40. Dengue Risk Areas
Pathogen temperature restriction based on Watts et al. -> 7d 32-35 °C
Thomas S M, Fischer D, Fleischmann S, Bittner T and Beierkuhnlein C 2011 Risk assessment of dengue virus
amplification in Europe based on spatio-temporal high resolution climate change projections Erdkunde 65 137-150

41. Dengue Risk Areas
Pathogen temperature restriction based on Blanc –EIP > 8d > 22 °C
Thomas S M, Fischer D, Fleischmann S, Bittner T and Beierkuhnlein C 2011 Risk assessment of dengue virus
amplification in Europe based on spatio-temporal high resolution climate change projections. Erdkunde 65 137-150

42. Literature Survey
40
multidisciplinary Sciences
35 Geo- and Environmental Sciences
Ecology
30
# Publications ISI web of science
Biology
25 Entomology
Parasitology
20
Veterinary Science
15 Medicine
10
5
0
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
Topic=("dengue*" AND …), Topic=(“DENV" AND …), Topic=("chikungunya*" AND …), Topic=(“CHIKV" AND …),
Topic=("west* nil*" AND …), Topic=(“WNV" AND …)
( … AND"climat* chang*" OR "global* chang*" OR "global* warm*")

43. Indirect Impacts
Global & Climatic Changes
Reservoirs Vectors Pathogens
Humans

44. Chikungunya and Dengue
Chikungunya Dengue
currently
Fischer D., Thomas S.M., Fleischmann S. et al. (in prep.)

45. Chikungunya and Dengue
Chikungunya Dengue
2011- 2040
A1B

46. Chikungunya and Dengue
Chikungunya Dengue
2041- 2070
A1B

47. Impacts of Climate Change
Ecosystem Functioning
e.g.
soil formation carbon cycle photosynthesis
herbivory pollination mykorrhiza
Biodiversity and Ecological Complexity
Ecological Services to Mankind
maintenance protection regulation culture
• food • flooding • climate • recreation
Biological Control • pests • education
• potable water • land slides
of Diseases
• fuel • avalanches • water • aesthetics
• etc. • etc. • etc. • etc.

48. Climatic Data
Weather Stations in Worldclim
http://www.worldclim.com/methods.htm

49. Aedes albopictus
Occurrence probability based on
current climatic conditions

50. Climate Models, Environmental Envelopes and Future Projections of Vectors and Pathogens
In the face of climate change, responses of species distribution patterns to climate warming and
modified precipitation regimes are expected. Here, we scrutinize options for the detection of
environmental envelopes for Aedes albopictus comparing models that are based on its native
range with models that are considering the ecological conditions in its invasive range today. The
findings are used for the projection of future distribution patterns, which consider several IPCC
scenarios of possible global developments during the 21st century. These projections are
showing a spectrum of options for future occurrences of this important vector.
Then, we detect temperature requirements of important pathogens such as dengue. By
combining the climatic and especially thermal requirements of vectors and pathogens and
relating these to the projected climatic conditions, we model geographically explicit spatial
distributions of potential risks that may arise during the next decades.
Finally, we identify the most important pathways for the spread of vectors such as Aedes
albopictus. Human mobility, transport and trade are contributing to distribution of organisms. If
climatic niches are developed for vectors AND pathogens during climate change and if the
potentially appropriate regions can be accessed or are connected by infrastructure then risks for
disease outbreaks have to be detected. Early warning approaches may concentrate on such
regions in order to conduct activities in most efficient ways.

51. Aedes albopictus: Kälte-Toleranz der Eier

52. Klimaeignung für den Überträger: Aedes albopictus
currently
Bioclimatic Variables:
- Annual precipitation
- Annual mean temperature
- Mean temperature of the
warmest and coldest quarter
- Altitude
Climatic Suitability
Niemitz F., Fischer D., Thomas S.M. et al. (in prep.)

53. Klimaeignung für den Überträger: Aedes albopictus
2011-2040
A1B
Bioclimatic Variables:
- Annual precipitation
- Annual mean temperature
- Mean temperature of the
warmest and coldest quarter
- Altitude
Climatic Suitability

54. Klimaeignung für den Überträger: Aedes albopictus
2041-2070
A1B
Bioclimatic Variables:
- Annual precipitation
- Annual mean temperature
- Mean temperature of the
warmest and coldest quarter
- Altitude
Climatic Suitability

55. Ae. albopictus

56. Dengue in Deutschland – gemeldete Fälle 2001-2010
200
Bayern
180
Baden-Württemberg
160
Nordrhein-Westfalen
140 Berlin
120 Hessen
100 Hamburg
80
60
40
20
0
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Robert Koch-Institut: SurvStat, http://www3.rki.de/SurvStat, Datenstand: 28.02.2011

57. Dengue Amplifikation nicht erfüllt
Vektor Etablierung nicht erfüllt
Vektor und Pathogen noch suboptimal
Voraussetzungen für Vektor und Pathogen
sind optimal erfüllt
Abbildung 1: Modellierung der potenziellen Etablierung des potenten Vektors
Aedes albopictus und der Dengue Amplifikation in Europa für den Zeitraum 2011
bis 2040. Grundlage ist das A1B Klimaszenario des IPCC sowie die hierauf
basierenden 30-jährigen Mittelwerte modellierter Klimazeitreihen. Risikogebiete
sind klar zu erkennen.

58. GfOe
Invasive mosquitoes such as Aedes albopictus and Aedes japonicus received much attention
due to the possible expansion of new vector‐borne infectious diseases to Europe. Ae.
albopictus is in a rapid extension of its dispersal area: originally native in South‐East Asia, it
became a “global player” during the last decades and is now widely established in Southern
Europe. This potential vector of various infectious diseases (e.g. Chikungunya, Dengue and
West‐Nile) is listed as one of the 100 “Worlds Worst Invaders”. Moreover, Ae. japonicus was
recently found in Germany and Switzerland.
Especially the interplay between climate change and globalisation is of outmost interest for the
introduction and establishment of these disease vectors. Whereas introduction and spread of
vector species is mostly supported by human activities such as trade and traffic, colonization
and establishment with successful reproduction is mainly dependent on suitable environmental
conditions affected by climate change. Of further interest are the pathogens, which may be
imported by infected travellers coming from endemic areas. A growing number of dengue cases
have been reported at higher latitudes, for instance, as a consequence of increased
international travel and intensified and frequent outbreaks around the world.
Here we modelled a bioclimatic envelope of Ae. albopicuts and connected the results to future
climatic conditions in Europe using regional climate change projections. Furthermore, the
major thermal constraints of dengue virus are estimated and transferred to the expected
future climatic conditions. These results are combined with possible dispersal mechanisms of
vector and pathogen: introduction pathways such as harbours, airports and highways.
Combining climate projections for vector and pathogen and their dispersal mechanisms may
contribute to the identification of risk areas.

59. Climate Change and Globalization as Drivers
of Invasive Aedine Disease Vectors
Carl BEIERKUHNLEIN, Stephanie THOMAS, Dominik FISCHER
Department of Biogeography, University of Bayreuth

60. Aedes albopictus
after 2009 ?
?

61. Aedes albopictus Risk Projection – Expert Knowledge based
Fischer D, Thomas SM, Niemitz F, Reineking B, Beierkuhnlein C 2011 Projection of climatic suitability for Aedes
albopictus Skuse (Culicidae) in Europe under climate change conditions. Global Planetary Change 78: 54-64

62. Dengue Risk Areas
Pathogen temperature restriction based on Watts et al. EIP -> 7d mean 32-35 °C
Thomas S M, Fischer D, Fleischmann S, Bittner T and Beierkuhnlein C 2011 Risk assessment of dengue virus
amplification in Europe based on spatio-temporal high resolution climate change projections. Erdkunde 65: 137-150

63. Dengue Risk Areas
Pathogen temperature restriction based on Watts et al. 1987 EIP -> 12d > 30 °C
Thomas S M, Fischer D, Fleischmann S, Bittner T and Beierkuhnlein C 2011 Risk assessment of dengue virus
amplification in Europe based on spatio-temporal high resolution climate change projections. Erdkunde 65: 137-150