Potential Spread of Vector Borne Diseases in Face of Climate Change

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GRF One Health Summit 2012, Davos: Presentation by Carl BEIERKUHNLEIN, University of Bayreuth, Germany, Federal Republic of

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Potential Spread of Vector Borne Diseases in Face of Climate Change

  1. 1. Potential Spread of Vector Borne Diseasesin Face of Climate Change Carl BEIERKUHNLEIN, Stephanie THOMAS, Dominik FISCHER Department of Biogeography, University of Bayreuth, Germany One Health Summit, Davos, CH, 2012
  2. 2. Decision MakingBeierkuhnlein C & Foken T 2008. Regional Climate Change and Adaptation Strategies for the Stateof Bavaria. BayCEER 113: 500 pp. (in German)
  3. 3. VectorsArthropod vectors for human pathogens areexpected to spread due to changes in : temperature precipitation Climate Change climatic variability (extremes) functional connectivity between continents
  4. 4. Case Studies / DiseasesAedes albopictus Dengue ChikungunyaPhlebotomus spp. Visceral Leismaniasis
  5. 5. 1.) Connect 2.) Identify 3.) Relate toclimatic variables / bioclimatic climate changepresence records envelopes projections IPCC scenarios Humidity Temperature COSMO CLM REMO WETTREG STARFischer D, Thomas SM, Beierkuhnlein C 2010: Climate change effects on vector-borne diseases in Europe.Nova Acta Leopoldina 112 (384): 99-107.
  6. 6. Ae. albopictus Dengue Virus
  7. 7. Aedes albopictus Risk Projection – GeostatisticalFischer D, Thomas SM, Niemitz F, Reineking B, Beierkuhnlein C 2011 Projection of climatic suitability for Aedesalbopictus Skuse (Culicidae) in Europe under climate change conditions. Global Planetary Change 78: 54-64
  8. 8. Shifts in Bioclimatic Envelopes Differences in climatic conditions exposed to Aedes albopictus between its native and its invaded range Native populations (SE Asia) Invasive except Europe EuropeFischer D, Thomas SM, Niemitz F, Reineking B, Beierkuhnlein C 2011: Projection of climatic suitability for Aedesalbopictus Skuse (Culicidae) in Europe under climate change conditions. Global Planetary Change 78: 54-64
  9. 9. Aedes albopictus establishment combined with lilkelihood of Dengue amplification dengue amplification unfulfilled Vector establishment unfulfilled Vector almost fulfilled + dengue Vector fulfilled + dengueThomas S M, Fischer D, Fleischmann S, Bittner T and Beierkuhnlein C 2011 Risk assessment of dengue virusamplification in Europe based on spatio-temporal high resolution climate change projections Erdkunde 65 137-150
  10. 10. Aedes albopictus establishment combined withlilkelihood of Dengue amplification dengue amplification unfulfilled Vector establishment unfulfilled Vector almost fulfilled + dengue Vector fulfilled + dengue
  11. 11. Current probability of dispersal of Aedes albopictusby ship transport of goods inward EU from infested countries currently
  12. 12. Projected probability of dispersal of Aedes albopictus by ship transport of goods inward EU from infested countriesVector requ.Containers In the first half of the century Italian seaports and Bilbao provide climatic suitable conditions for Aedes albopictus, from mid-century on this is true for Hamburg and Rotterdam.
  13. 13. Dengue and Chikungunya for 2011 – 2040 period, based on IPCC A1B, geostatisticalDengue Chikungunya
  14. 14. Case Studies / DiseasesAedes albopictus Dengue ChikungunyaPhlebotomus spp. Visceral Leismaniasis
  15. 15. Bioclimatic suitability for Phlebotomus species 70 % training points 30 % test points AUC-values > 0.9 For A1B-scenario and Cosmo CLM regional climate model (based on ECHAM5)
  16. 16. Bioclimatic suitability for Phlebotomus species 70 % training points 30 % test points AUC-values > 0.9 Maxent considers „presence only“ points but no For A1B-scenario and Cosmo CLM regional climate model confirmed absence data. (based on ECHAM5)
  17. 17. Bioclimatic suitability for Phlebotomus species A1B vs. A2-scenario Cosmo CLM Regional ModelFischer D, Thomas SM, Beierkuhnlein C 2010: Temperature-derived potential for the establishment ofphlebotomine sandflies and visceral leishmaniasis in Germany. Geospatial Health 5(1): 59-69.
  18. 18. Bioclimatic suitability for Leishmania infantum A1B vs. A2-scenario Cosmo CLM Regional ModelFischer D, Thomas SM, Beierkuhnlein C 2010: Temperature-derived potential for the establishment ofphlebotomine sandflies and visceral leishmaniasis in Germany. Geospatial Health 5(1): 59-69.
  19. 19. Probability of visceral leishmaniasis A1B vs. A2-scenario Cosmo CLM Regional ModelFischer D, Thomas SM, Beierkuhnlein C 2010: Temperature-derived potential for the establishment ofphlebotomine sandflies and visceral leishmaniasis in Germany. Geospatial Health 5(1): 59-69.
  20. 20. Moving TargetsArthropod vectors are short-lived and mayexhibit evolutionary adaptation to novelenvironments.Arboviruses show modifications and thedevelopment of regional variants too.Average temperature and precipitation values areinsufficient proxies – windows of opportunity andlimitation must be identified.
  21. 21. Challenges• Entomologicial and virological knowledge on climatic constraints (e.g. for serotypes) is limited (for modeling)• New IPCC Scenarios are on the way and will result in new GCMs to be translated into Regional Climate Models• Human vectors (network, hubs, and intensity of transport and travelling activities) are changing too• Human population density and landuse is changing regionally different but this is not yet integrated in models• Reservoir hosts have to be modeled too• Bioclimatic Modeling Algorithms are developing rapidly (BRT, RF, GLM, GAM) – true absence must be considered
  22. 22. PublicationsFischer D, Moeller P, Thomas S, Naucke, TJ, Beierkuhnlein C (2011) Combining climaticprojections and dispersal ability: a method for estimating the responses of sandfly vectorspecies to climate change. PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, 5(11), e1407Fischer D, Thomas S, Niemitz F, Reineking, B, Beierkuhnlein C (2011) Projection of climaticsuitability for Aedes albopictus Skuse (Culicidae) in Europe under climate change conditions.Global and Planetary Change, 78 54-64Thomas S, Fischer D, Fleischmann S, Bittner T, Beierkuhnlein C (2011) Risk assessment ofdengue virus amplification in Europe based on spatio-temporal high resolution climatechange projections. Erdkunde, 65(2) 137-150 (2011)Fischer D, Thomas SM, Beierkuhnlein C (2011) Modelling climatic suitability and dispersal fordisease vectors: the example of a phlebotomine sandfly in Europe. Procedia EnvironmentalScience 7, 164-169.Fischer D, Thomas S, Beierkuhnlein C (2010) Temperature-derived potential for theestablishment of phlebotomine sandflies and visceral leishmaniasis in Germany. GeospatialHealth, 5(1), 59-69 (2010)Fischer D, Thomas S, Beierkuhnlein C (2010) Climate Change Effects on Vector-BorneDiseases in Europe. Nova Acta Leopoldina, 112 (384), 99-107 (2010)
  23. 23. Ae. albopictus Dengue VirusHumidity Temperature
  24. 24. Ae. albopictus Dengue VirusFeuchte Temperatur
  25. 25. Ae. albopictus Dengue Virus Feuchte Temperaturships planes Risk Assessment
  26. 26. Phlebotomus perniciosus Potential current distribution / occurrence Probability of occurrenceGeostatistical calculations are based on confirmed locations / climatic data.70 % training points, 30 % test points, AUC-values > 0.9
  27. 27. Least-cost path: Cost distance and cost backlinkP. perniciosus: current situation to upcoming time-period (2011-2040, A1B scenario)- Cost distance: for orthogonal and diagonal movement- Cost backlink: direction to the value of least costs for each raster cellFischer D, Thomas SM, Beierkuhnlein C 2011: Modelling climatic suitability and dispersal for disease vectors: theexample of a phlebotomine sandfly in Europe. Procedia Environmental Science 3, in press.
  28. 28. Cooperation is needed!Feel encouraged to share data and to contributeto the improvement of modeling projections. MedicineClimatology Population Biology Entomology Biogeography Parasitology EcologyOrnithology Virology Human Geography Veterinary Medicine
  29. 29. Projected probability of Dengue dispersal by incoming passengers by plane from endemic countriesPathogen requ.Passengers Until the end of the century most airports (excl. nordic countries and UK) exhibit thermal conditions that allow dengue transmission. Thomas S.M., Fischer D., Beierkuhnlein C.,(in prep.)
  30. 30. Dengue Incubation Extrinsic incubation period Mosquito Mosquito bites 8 d at 22°C (Blanc) infected Virus can be transferred Days Extrinsic incubation period Mosquito Mosquito bites 12 d at 30°C (Watts) infected Virus can be transferred Days Extrinsic incubation period Mosquito bites 7 d at 32-35°C (Watts) Mosquito infected Virus can be transferred Days
  31. 31. Biotic Effects of Global ChangeGlobal changes are of many facets that areinfluencing the decline but also the spread oforganisms AND pathogens.Modifications of regional biodiversity patternsare likely to occur.
  32. 32. Risk Assessment in Face of Climate ChangeInteracting responses of organisms ANDpathogens have to be considered.Effects of climatic changes AND of increasedtransport and travelling activities must beintegrated.Additionally
  33. 33. Projecting Biotic Responses to Climate Changehas to consider:• Probabilities of occurrence of windows of opportunity (based on Scenarios, GCMs, Regional CMs)• Human vectors (e.g. transport, travelling intensity, harbors, airports, roads, railways)• Human population density• Physical barriers (relief, DEM)
  34. 34. Aedes albopictusUntil 1978
  35. 35. Aedes albopictusuntil 1990
  36. 36. Aedes albopictusuntil 2000
  37. 37. Aedes albopictusIn 2009
  38. 38. Dengue Risk AreasPathogen temperature restriction based on Watts et al. -> 7d 32-35 °CThomas S M, Fischer D, Fleischmann S, Bittner T and Beierkuhnlein C 2011 Risk assessment of dengue virusamplification in Europe based on spatio-temporal high resolution climate change projections Erdkunde 65 137-150
  39. 39. Dengue Risk AreasPathogen temperature restriction based on Blanc –EIP > 8d > 22 °CThomas S M, Fischer D, Fleischmann S, Bittner T and Beierkuhnlein C 2011 Risk assessment of dengue virusamplification in Europe based on spatio-temporal high resolution climate change projections. Erdkunde 65 137-150
  40. 40. Literature Survey 40 multidisciplinary Sciences 35 Geo- and Environmental Sciences Ecology 30# Publications ISI web of science Biology 25 Entomology Parasitology 20 Veterinary Science 15 Medicine 10 5 0 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Topic=("dengue*" AND …), Topic=(“DENV" AND …), Topic=("chikungunya*" AND …), Topic=(“CHIKV" AND …), Topic=("west* nil*" AND …), Topic=(“WNV" AND …) ( … AND"climat* chang*" OR "global* chang*" OR "global* warm*")
  41. 41. Indirect Impacts Global & Climatic ChangesReservoirs Vectors Pathogens Humans
  42. 42. Chikungunya and Dengue Chikungunya Dengue currentlyFischer D., Thomas S.M., Fleischmann S. et al. (in prep.)
  43. 43. Chikungunya and DengueChikungunya Dengue 2011- 2040 A1B
  44. 44. Chikungunya and DengueChikungunya Dengue 2041- 2070 A1B
  45. 45. Impacts of Climate Change Ecosystem Functioning e.g. soil formation carbon cycle photosynthesis herbivory pollination mykorrhiza Biodiversity and Ecological Complexity Ecological Services to Mankind maintenance protection regulation culture • food • flooding • climate • recreation Biological Control • pests • education • potable water • land slides of Diseases • fuel • avalanches • water • aesthetics • etc. • etc. • etc. • etc.
  46. 46. Climatic DataWeather Stations in Worldclim http://www.worldclim.com/methods.htm
  47. 47. Aedes albopictus Occurrence probability based on current climatic conditions
  48. 48. Climate Models, Environmental Envelopes and Future Projections of Vectors and PathogensIn the face of climate change, responses of species distribution patterns to climate warming andmodified precipitation regimes are expected. Here, we scrutinize options for the detection ofenvironmental envelopes for Aedes albopictus comparing models that are based on its nativerange with models that are considering the ecological conditions in its invasive range today. Thefindings are used for the projection of future distribution patterns, which consider several IPCCscenarios of possible global developments during the 21st century. These projections areshowing a spectrum of options for future occurrences of this important vector.Then, we detect temperature requirements of important pathogens such as dengue. Bycombining the climatic and especially thermal requirements of vectors and pathogens andrelating these to the projected climatic conditions, we model geographically explicit spatialdistributions of potential risks that may arise during the next decades.Finally, we identify the most important pathways for the spread of vectors such as Aedesalbopictus. Human mobility, transport and trade are contributing to distribution of organisms. Ifclimatic niches are developed for vectors AND pathogens during climate change and if thepotentially appropriate regions can be accessed or are connected by infrastructure then risks fordisease outbreaks have to be detected. Early warning approaches may concentrate on suchregions in order to conduct activities in most efficient ways.
  49. 49. Aedes albopictus: Kälte-Toleranz der Eier
  50. 50. Klimaeignung für den Überträger: Aedes albopictuscurrently Bioclimatic Variables: - Annual precipitation - Annual mean temperature - Mean temperature of the warmest and coldest quarter - Altitude Climatic SuitabilityNiemitz F., Fischer D., Thomas S.M. et al. (in prep.)
  51. 51. Klimaeignung für den Überträger: Aedes albopictus2011-2040A1B Bioclimatic Variables: - Annual precipitation - Annual mean temperature - Mean temperature of the warmest and coldest quarter - Altitude Climatic Suitability
  52. 52. Klimaeignung für den Überträger: Aedes albopictus2041-2070A1B Bioclimatic Variables: - Annual precipitation - Annual mean temperature - Mean temperature of the warmest and coldest quarter - Altitude Climatic Suitability
  53. 53. Ae. albopictus
  54. 54. Dengue in Deutschland – gemeldete Fälle 2001-2010200 Bayern180 Baden-Württemberg160 Nordrhein-Westfalen140 Berlin120 Hessen100 Hamburg80604020 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Robert Koch-Institut: SurvStat, http://www3.rki.de/SurvStat, Datenstand: 28.02.2011
  55. 55. Dengue Amplifikation nicht erfüllt Vektor Etablierung nicht erfüllt Vektor und Pathogen noch suboptimal Voraussetzungen für Vektor und Pathogen sind optimal erfülltAbbildung 1: Modellierung der potenziellen Etablierung des potenten VektorsAedes albopictus und der Dengue Amplifikation in Europa für den Zeitraum 2011bis 2040. Grundlage ist das A1B Klimaszenario des IPCC sowie die hieraufbasierenden 30-jährigen Mittelwerte modellierter Klimazeitreihen. Risikogebietesind klar zu erkennen.
  56. 56. GfOeInvasive mosquitoes such as Aedes albopictus and Aedes japonicus received much attentiondue to the possible expansion of new vector‐borne infectious diseases to Europe. Ae.albopictus is in a rapid extension of its dispersal area: originally native in South‐East Asia, itbecame a “global player” during the last decades and is now widely established in SouthernEurope. This potential vector of various infectious diseases (e.g. Chikungunya, Dengue andWest‐Nile) is listed as one of the 100 “Worlds Worst Invaders”. Moreover, Ae. japonicus wasrecently found in Germany and Switzerland.Especially the interplay between climate change and globalisation is of outmost interest for theintroduction and establishment of these disease vectors. Whereas introduction and spread ofvector species is mostly supported by human activities such as trade and traffic, colonizationand establishment with successful reproduction is mainly dependent on suitable environmentalconditions affected by climate change. Of further interest are the pathogens, which may beimported by infected travellers coming from endemic areas. A growing number of dengue caseshave been reported at higher latitudes, for instance, as a consequence of increasedinternational travel and intensified and frequent outbreaks around the world.Here we modelled a bioclimatic envelope of Ae. albopicuts and connected the results to futureclimatic conditions in Europe using regional climate change projections. Furthermore, themajor thermal constraints of dengue virus are estimated and transferred to the expectedfuture climatic conditions. These results are combined with possible dispersal mechanisms ofvector and pathogen: introduction pathways such as harbours, airports and highways.Combining climate projections for vector and pathogen and their dispersal mechanisms maycontribute to the identification of risk areas.
  57. 57. Climate Change and Globalization as Drivers of Invasive Aedine Disease VectorsCarl BEIERKUHNLEIN, Stephanie THOMAS, Dominik FISCHER Department of Biogeography, University of Bayreuth
  58. 58. Aedes albopictusafter 2009 ? ?
  59. 59. Aedes albopictus Risk Projection – Expert Knowledge basedFischer D, Thomas SM, Niemitz F, Reineking B, Beierkuhnlein C 2011 Projection of climatic suitability for Aedesalbopictus Skuse (Culicidae) in Europe under climate change conditions. Global Planetary Change 78: 54-64
  60. 60. Dengue Risk AreasPathogen temperature restriction based on Watts et al. EIP -> 7d mean 32-35 °CThomas S M, Fischer D, Fleischmann S, Bittner T and Beierkuhnlein C 2011 Risk assessment of dengue virusamplification in Europe based on spatio-temporal high resolution climate change projections. Erdkunde 65: 137-150
  61. 61. Dengue Risk AreasPathogen temperature restriction based on Watts et al. 1987 EIP -> 12d > 30 °CThomas S M, Fischer D, Fleischmann S, Bittner T and Beierkuhnlein C 2011 Risk assessment of dengue virusamplification in Europe based on spatio-temporal high resolution climate change projections. Erdkunde 65: 137-150

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