POLLACK_HaiyanindicatorsIDRCpres

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5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice 24-28 August 2014 in Davos, Switzerland

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  • Considering the crucial ITU-R14.3, we find a framework for ICT implementation based on verification by a multi-lateral network of information exchange. This framework’s success can be witnessed when looking at SRT-3 data and its corresponding UNGA’s resolution on global data or IOM’s “precision data”. In many cases, we find that these component parts of the international framework go beyond their immediate issue to address fundamental data-centric problems (in our case interpretability). For example ITU R. P. 1812-1 superseded by ITU R. P.3/94(Rev.1), addresses data sharing and computation processes. It may be the case that organizations will be induced to work together by financial pressures to avoid duplication.
    What’s certain is that a community approach will be more effective than piecemeal approaches to this problem of interpretability because of the move from databases to shared data in closed web-based access (distributed service) driven by the shift from data models towards dynamic integration. This breaks down the barriers between various agencies and services by creating common sources, platforms, clients, and content from distributed servers. Although we find a technology-driven legal requirement to appropriate data, solutions may lie in e-markets for example about geographical information (for logistics) or in common repositories. We’re also witnessing a technology-driven shift in the use of data from one scene over an area of interest towards panel data (20-40 years) which coincides with a shift in the types of applications from government- and university-use towards public good purposes (see AFRI GEOSS, GEO-XI, or geosec.org).
  • POLLACK_HaiyanindicatorsIDRCpres

    1. 1. Is VGI a good indicator of damage? Joseph Pollack, Statistics Without Borders, Norway 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Prateek Budhwar, Sankhya, India Prof. Marta Poblet, RMIT, Australia With Special Thanks to : Michiko Wolcott, Dung Minh Tran, Catherine Graham & Sara J. Terp
    2. 2. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Objectives • Analyze tweets from the days around the landfall of Typhoon Haiyan (a.k.a. Yolanda) in the Philippines – Insights – Identify important considerations and challenges in analyzing tweets for disaster response • Develop a guidelines document for analysis of tweets for disaster response purposes from the learnings
    3. 3. Geolocatable tweets are only 1.5% of total tweets 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Scrapper Data Count Total Tweets Initially Pulled 826,172 Excluded: Errors -4 Total Valid Tweets Initially Pulled 826,168 Tweets after Additional Filter for Relevance 111,598 Geolocatable (Device GPS or Internet Country) 1,680 All Tweets Philippines Total Relevant Tweets 111,598 620 #Unique Users 66,980 478 #Tweets/User 1.7 1.3 Average Tweet Length 115.1 106.4 #Unique Hashtags 5,826 189 #Hashtags/User 0.087 0.395 37% of all geolocatable tweets come from the Philippines
    4. 4. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Scrapping Criteria Rank Keywords Only Relevance Filtered 1 #yolandaph #haiyan 2 #haiyan #yolandaph 3 #philippines #philippines 4 #yolanda #typhoonhaiyan 5 #missuniverse2013 #yolanda 6 #dt #rescueph 7 #typhoon #typhoon 8 #rescueph #filipinas 9 #reliefph #news 10 #ph #vietnam • It is important to segment the tweets for their relevance and identify the parameters before they are analyzed: – Country – Keywords – Hashtags – Geolocation – Language – Retweets vs. organic contents • Criteria may be different if analyzing for aggregate decision vs. looking for Individual tweets • Inclusion or exclusion of the retweets and its implications must be considered carefully – Definition of “retweet”? Miss Universe Person named “Yolanda”
    5. 5. In summary the final dataset contained those entries geo-located in Phillipines with timestamps for their release to volunteers and colour codes based o onn sseevveerriittyy aanndd uurrggeennccyy.. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Human Sensed Data Count Total 3808 Philippines only 2192 The final dataset contained those entries geo-located in Phillipines with timestamps for their release to volunteers and colour codes based on severity and urgency.
    6. 6. Quality Assurance Workflow (Iacucci, 2013) 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org
    7. 7. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Descriptive Statistics - Scrapper Language #Tweets %Tweets English 94,294 84.5% Spanish 3,703 3.3% French 3,535 3.2% Tagalog 2,567 2.3% Malay 442 0.4% Indonesian 250 0.2% Other/Undetermined 6,807 6.1% Total 111,598 100.0% • Language is relevant • The nature of the tweets presents challenges in identifying the correct language – Length – Tweets consisting of pure hashtags – Tweeting style (use of spaces, abbreviations, etc.) – Etc. • The impact of language depends on the end objective of the analysis
    8. 8. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Descriptive Stats - Scrapper • Platform mix is dramatically different between geolocatable vs. non-geolocatable tweets • Of the geolocatable tweets, Instagram sees more volume in the Philippines than in other countries • Understanding the use of mobile devices may be useful in disaster response
    9. 9. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Analytical Protocol – Human Sensed • Damage Reference Maps from ACAPS • Make probability density plots using – Bayesian Kriging on Gaussian Geostatistic Model (KA) – Correcting for small # of obs. using Monte Carlo Markov Chain Simulation (Iglesias, Sabuncu, & Leemput, 2013) • Compare to Reference Maps • Correct for Spatial Bias due to categories • Correct for Spatial Bias due to Geography • Correct for Temporal Bias (using connectivity reference map)
    10. 10. Conclusions : new conceptual grounding 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Humanitarian- Level Perspective Telling Stories Needs and Damage Assessment Patient-Centric Approach Situation Assessment Surge and Programmatic Assessment Data Granularity Granular Aggregate
    11. 11. Information flow from Scrapper to Community 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org
    12. 12. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Statistics Without Borders • Whereas the relevance of the data-centric work is ensured by the activation criteria, and accuracy, timeliness, comparability, and accessibility are assured by the internal protocols and modalities to those effects. • The crucial quality dimension of interpretability is externalized to the end-users whom are not in a position to invest in guaranteeing it. • Therefore Humanitarian Organisations should invest in building their capacity and competency in communicating their results to end-users whom themselves should invest in the capability of properly understanding and digesting such outputs • A community approach to statistical capacity building?
    13. 13. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Statistics Without Borders • The need for a set of principles governing official statistics became apparent at the end of the 1980s when countries in Central Europe began to change from centrally planned economies to market-oriented democracies. It was essential to ensure that national statistical systems in such countries would be able to produce appropriate and reliable data that adhered to certain professional and scientific standards. Towards this end, the Conference of European Statisticians developed and adopted the Fundamental Principles of Official Statistics in 1991 (CES/702), which was subsequently adopted in 1992 at the ministerial level by ECE as decision C(47). Statisticians in other parts of the world soon realized that the principles were of much wider, global significance. Following an international consultation process, a milestone in the history of international statistics was reached when the United Nations Statistical Commission at its Special Session of 11-15 April 1994 adopted the very same set of principles – with a revised preamble – as the United Nations Fundamental Principles of Official Statistics. These principles were further reaffirmed on January 2014 with the adoption of A/68/716 by the General Assembly of the United Nations.
    14. 14. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Statistics Without Borders • Kindly contact SWB for statistical capacity building and support for: – Field studies Design – Education program development and delivery – Analytics support – Audit & validation – Field study implementation • Statistics Without Borders is the outreach arm of the American Statistical Association – SWB has over 1000 statisticians supporting its projects. • For more information : http://community.amstat.org/ StatisticsWithoutBorders/home
    15. 15. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Sankhya • For more information about Sankhya, including parameters and mathematical proof please visit: – http://sankhyakarika.webstarts.com/uploads/Secret_Sanhya_Part_2.pdf • Sankhya is a particle physics theory from India which has perfectly described all matter and interactions in the universe. • The unified field theory of Sankhya (logic of counting in Sanskrit) created by Maharishi Kapilla in a pre-Vedic period. • Sankhya forms the core of the Bhagavadgita, embedded in the Mahabharata. Its axiom based foundation is bounded by rigorous logic, using combinatorial mathematics.
    16. 16. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org RMIT • RMIT is a global university of technology and design offering a range of undergraduate, postgraduate and vocational degrees and diplomas. • Programs are global in focus and practical in application. With more than 120 years of education excellence backed by industry, RMIT’s qualifications give you the practical skills you need to succeed in a rapidly changing world. • Visit http://www.rmit.edu.au/ For more information
    17. 17. Added value for the Post 2015 Framework for 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Disaster Risk Reduction • How did your work support the implementation of the Hyogo Framework for Action: – Provides a statistically-grounded understanding of the place and proper application of social media for situation awareness during crises • The main gaps, needs and further steps Post 2015 Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction – Research: the only thing we should research is how to clean the ocean – Education & Training: The application of high-tech in civil protection inter-agency training – Implementation & Practice: Gap concerning good practices when taking a community approach to capacity building – Policy: Societal security is not addressed

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