5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice 24-28 August 2014 in Davos, Switzerland

1. Vulnerability Cascades in
Multiple Hazard Risk
Assessment
Joanna Pardoe
United Nations University
Institute for Environment and Human Security

2. Introduction
• Single Rainy Season
• Subsistence Agriculture
• Floods and Droughts
• Climate change

3. Multi-Hazard Risk Assessment
Base Layer
Hazard 1
Vulnerability
Hazard 2

4. Single to Multi-Hazard Assessment
Flood Impacts Drought Impacts
Flood and Drought
impacts
Crop damage
Rooms collapse
Mosquitoes and malaria
Household items damaged
Less custom
Livestock damage
Temperature issues
Poor road conditions
Damp rooms
General and exacerbated illness
Roads blocked
Livestock shelters damaged
Crop damage
Lack of water for animals
Affects agenda
Harder to find water
Livestock damage
Malnutrition and hunger
Conflict and tension
Time consuming
Worry
Temperature issues
Hard soil
General and exacerbated illness
Less custom
Flood Drought
Crop damage 132 138
Rooms collapse 105
Mosquitoes and malaria 32 2
Poor road conditions 28 2
Livestock damage 7 21
Household items damaged 25
Lack of water for animals 25
Less custom 16 7
Harder to find water 21
Conflict and tension 4 15
Illness 10 8

5. Challenges
– “We will not be able to predict” (GH
Sumbrungo 1)
– “If ever this happens, only god knows
how I will deal with it” (BN Dassari 11)
– “You know, here people do not like to
think about bad events ” (BN Firhoun 5)

6. Game
Aims:
• Climate change
• Hypothetical
Data:
• Decision making
• Coping strategies
• Adaptation options

7. Scenarios
Scenario 2
Planting
Day 30
Day 60
Scenario 1
Planting
Day 30
Day 60

8. Results
Cotton Groundnut Maize Rice Sorghum
Drought R R
Flood
Flood
Drought
• Second hazard: additional impacts
• Questions existing adaptation strategies

9. Added Value for Post – 2015
Framework
• Critical Gap
– Understanding if and how vulnerability
cascades in multiple hazard contexts
• Support/contribution
– Revealed vulnerability cascades and
complexity
– Highlighted the need to prioritising
vulnerability assessments in MHRAs

10. Thank you for your attention!
pardoe@ehs.unu.edu