Pardoe_Vulnerability cascades3

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5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice 24-28 August 2014 in Davos, Switzerland

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Pardoe_Vulnerability cascades3

  1. 1. Vulnerability Cascades in Multiple Hazard Risk Assessment Joanna Pardoe United Nations University Institute for Environment and Human Security
  2. 2. Introduction • Single Rainy Season • Subsistence Agriculture • Floods and Droughts • Climate change
  3. 3. Multi-Hazard Risk Assessment Base Layer Hazard 1 Vulnerability Hazard 2
  4. 4. Single to Multi-Hazard Assessment Flood Impacts Drought Impacts Flood and Drought impacts Crop damage Rooms collapse Mosquitoes and malaria Household items damaged Less custom Livestock damage Temperature issues Poor road conditions Damp rooms General and exacerbated illness Roads blocked Livestock shelters damaged Crop damage Lack of water for animals Affects agenda Harder to find water Livestock damage Malnutrition and hunger Conflict and tension Time consuming Worry Temperature issues Hard soil General and exacerbated illness Less custom Flood Drought Crop damage 132 138 Rooms collapse 105 Mosquitoes and malaria 32 2 Poor road conditions 28 2 Livestock damage 7 21 Household items damaged 25 Lack of water for animals 25 Less custom 16 7 Harder to find water 21 Conflict and tension 4 15 Illness 10 8
  5. 5. Challenges – “We will not be able to predict” (GH Sumbrungo 1) – “If ever this happens, only god knows how I will deal with it” (BN Dassari 11) – “You know, here people do not like to think about bad events ” (BN Firhoun 5)
  6. 6. Game Aims: • Climate change • Hypothetical Data: • Decision making • Coping strategies • Adaptation options
  7. 7. Scenarios Scenario 2 Planting Day 30 Day 60 Scenario 1 Planting Day 30 Day 60
  8. 8. Results Cotton Groundnut Maize Rice Sorghum Drought R R Flood Flood Drought • Second hazard: additional impacts • Questions existing adaptation strategies
  9. 9. Added Value for Post – 2015 Framework • Critical Gap – Understanding if and how vulnerability cascades in multiple hazard contexts • Support/contribution – Revealed vulnerability cascades and complexity – Highlighted the need to prioritising vulnerability assessments in MHRAs
  10. 10. Thank you for your attention! pardoe@ehs.unu.edu

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