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Modeling drought risk assessment

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5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice 24-28 August 2014 in Davos, Switzerland

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Modeling drought risk assessment

  1. 1. Effects of Drought and Land Degradation on Agriculture Vegetation Losses in Sub-Saharan Africa, Southern Europe and the North Africa & West Asia Regions 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Prof. Wadid ERIAN The League of Arab States LAS Lead Author in IPCC - SREX , WGII Member in UNISDR GAR Advisory Board Advisor World Bank 2012 Bassem Katlan, GIS specialist. The Arab Centre for the Study of Arid Zones and Drylands ACSAD, Kishan Khoday, Regional Practice Leader for Environment & Energy and ZubairMurshed, Disaster Risk Reduction Advisor, United Nations Development Programme, UNDP Regional Center in Cairo
  2. 2. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Source: IPCC 2012
  3. 3. KEY MESSAGE “there is MEDIUM CONFIDENCE that since the 1950s some regions of the world have experienced more intense and longer droughts, in particular in SOUTHERN EUROPE, WEST AFRICA, AND EAST ASIA. Also new studies have improved the understanding of the mechanisms leading to drought. We could say that there is MEDIUM CONFIDENCE in a projected increase of duration and intensity of soil moisture and hydrological drought in some regions of the world, in particular in the MEDITERRANEAN, CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA, AND SOUTHERN AFRICA. We could have said stronger confidence than medium in the projections but definitional issues and lack of data preclude higher confidence than medium in observations of drought changes”.
  4. 4. Precipitation deficit is defined as a METEOROLOGICAL DROUGHT. A period of abnormally dry weather long enough to cause a serious hydrological imbalance. Drought is a relative term shortage of precipitation related to particular activity during the growing season affects yield - SOIL MOISTURE DROUGHT, or AGRICULTURAL DROUGHT, Storage changes in soil moisture and groundwater are also affected by increases in actual evapotranspiration in addition to reductions in precipitation. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org A MEGADROUGHT is drought, lasting much longer than normal, usually a decade or more. during the runoff season affects water supplies – HYDROLOGICAL DROUGHT. Source: Erian et al 2012 modified from IPCC 2012
  5. 5. AGRICULTURE DROUGHT HAZARD EXPO LAND COVER/USE SURE POPULATION Land Degradation Vegetation LAND –USE including Negative change in vegetation Cover Land degradation in Arab Countries and River’s Basins LOSS IN CROPS SPEI AGRICULTURAL DROUGHT SOCIO ECONOMICA LOSSES AVAILABLE STATISTICAL DATA ANALYSIS HAZ ARD VULNER ABILITY RISK Affected POPULATION COUNTRY CAPACITY Source: Erian et al 2012
  6. 6. Drought Hazard
  7. 7.  Class 1: No Drought hazard covers 2.50 Milliard Ha of the study area and represents 61.89%.  Class 2 Slight Drought Hazard covers 0.61 Milliard Ha of the study area and represents 15.16%  Class 3 Moderate Drought Hazard covers 0.57 Milliard Ha of the study area and represents 14.05% ; and  Class 4 High Drought Hazard covers 0.17 Milliard Ha of the study area and represents 4.28% 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org
  8. 8. Countries were ranked according to the total present of the ADH severity during the last decade (2000 – 2011), as follows: Group 1: extremely high : ADH affected, more than 85 % of the total country area, the 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org following countries: Lebanon, Gaza Strip, Portugal, Qatar, and Greece Group 2, Very high: ADH affected 75% - 85% of the total country area the following countries: . Morocco, Kuwait, West Bank, Syria, Eritrea and Equatorial Guinea Group 3, high: ADH affected 60 - 75% of the total country area, the following countries: Spain, Italy, Albania, Gabon, Tunisia, Iraq, Djibouti, Macedonia, Iran, Namibia, and Israel; Group 4, Moderate ADH affected 45 - 60% of the total country area, the following countries: Croatia, Somalia, South France, Ivory Coast, Turkey, Nigeria, Senegal, Liberia, Kenya’ Sierra Leanne and, Ghana; Group 5, low to moderate extend ADH affected 30 - 45% of the total country area the following countries: Serbia, Western Sahara, Ethiopia, Benin, Mali, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, South Africa, Burkina Faso, Togo, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Botswana, Sudan and south Sudan, Cameroon. Armenia and Chad, Group 6, Low ADH affected 15 - 30% of the total country area, the following countries: Yemen, Niger, Jordan, Congo, Algeria, Mauritania, Montenegro, Oman, , Libya and Egypt; and finally, Group 7, Very low ADH affected less than 15% of the total country area, the following countries: Zimbabwe, Guinea, Malawi, Gambia, Lesotho, Mozambique, Angola, Tanzania, Uganda, Burundi, Madagascar, Guinea-Bissau, Congo D R C, Rwanda, Zambia, Central African Republic and Swaziland
  9. 9. The high sensitivity of vegetation to climate forcing may result in rapid land use changes and high vulnerability to land degradation, as result of human action. When drought conditions end, recovery of vegetation may follow but such recovery process may last for longer periods of time. This is coupled with a population increase within this region rushing at scary rates further increase stresses on natural resources. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org
  10. 10. The overall countries affected areas by land degradation in percent shows that:  Very high affected in more than 75% of their areas: Lesotho, Kuwait, 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Djibouti, Sierra Leanne, Zambia, D R Congo and Andorra.  High affected in 50- 75% of their areas: France, Swaziland, Gaza Strip, Saudi Arabia, R Congo, Zimbabwe, San Marino, Guinea, Liberia, Ethiopia, Botswana, Comoros, Eritrea, Iraq, Syria, South Africa, Angola, Madagascar, Portugal, Mauritius, Uganda, CAR, Nigeria, Cameroon, Rwanda, Croatia, Equatorial Guinea, Mozambique, Tanzania, Guinea- Bissau, Burundi, Somalia and Benin.  Moderately affected in 25- 50% of their areas: Kenya, Niger, Gabon, Sudan & South Sudan, Egypt, Mali, Yemen, Qatar, Libya, Chad, Israel, Spain, Italy, Togo, Bahrain, Cote d'Ivoire, Algeria, Ghana, Gambia, Malawi, Oman, Cyprus, West Bank, S. T. & Principe, Burkina Faso, Mauritania, U A Emirates, Georgia, Iran, Jordan and Tunisia.  Low affected in1 less than 25% of their areas: Senegal, Namibia, Turkey, Morocco, Bulgaria, Albania and Greece.
  11. 11. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org
  12. 12. Approximately 14.1% of the studied area (0.52 billion hectares) is affected by both LD and ADH; out of this percentage : 1.6% is affected by severe levels of both LD and ADH, 4.4% is affected by severe LD and moderate ADH, 0.4% is affected by moderate LD and Severe ADH, and 1.4% is affected by moderate levels of both LD and ADH. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Country S HAZ_ M DEG S HAZ_ H DEG N M HAZ_ M DEG M HAZ_ H DEG H HAZ_ M DEG H HAZ_ H DEG Total Affected Kuwait 2.90 5.30 27.70 9.50 13.90 20.20 20.40 64.00 Bahrain - - 43.60 39.40 - 10.30 6.70 56.40 Djibouti 3.20 13.40 44.40 4.60 26.50 1.30 6.50 38.90 France 0.40 3.80 57.90 1.40 19.80 1.00 15.60 37.80 Syria 4.50 11.70 50.60 3.30 15.90 1.80 12.10 33.10 Portugal 1.70 21.60 44.10 1.00 12.70 1.30 17.60 32.60 Iraq 2.60 9.30 55.80 4.00 12.50 2.70 13.00 32.20 Croatia 0.10 0.40 68.80 2.60 17.40 1.60 9.10 30.70 Somalia 0.40 1.00 68.70 4.20 12.60 2.00 11.10 29.90 Qatar 12.80 4.20 56.80 13.20 6.00 4.20 2.90 26.30 Gaza Strip 0.90 32.50 41.90 - 17.90 4.70 2.10 24.70 Eritrea 5.40 19.60 50.50 4.70 15.60 1.20 3.20 24.70 Italy 0.60 3.50 71.40 1.60 12.70 1.00 9.30 24.60 Spain 0.90 7.90 67.80 1.60 12.10 1.10 8.50 23.30 Bosnia & Herzegovina 0.00 0.20 80.10 1.60 9.40 1.70 7.00 19.70 Equatorial Guinea 2.00 19.70 59.00 1.10 15.70 0.30 2.10 19.20 South Africa 0.90 2.60 77.90 5.40 13.10 - - 18.50 Gabon 1.50 12.70 67.40 1.10 9.90 0.60 6.80 18.40 Ethiopia 0.70 7.30 73.70 1.50 10.40 1.00 5.40 18.30 Kenya 0.50 4.00 77.80 1.70 10.30 1.00 4.80 17.80
  13. 13. Exposure to Drought
  14. 14.  Impacts on Rainfed Croplands The total affected area by combined ADH and LD is covering 239.86 million hectares represents 5.51% of the total studied area, almost 12.18 % from total Rainfed Croplands area, Countries affected over 15% could be ranked as follows: Lebanon, West Bank, Albania, Senegal, Macedonia, Serbia, Turkey, Italy, Croatia, Sierra Leone, Jordan, Burkina Faso, Israel, Cote d'Ivory, Nigeria, Greece, Morocco, Spain, Portugal, Armenia, Syria, Liberia, Bosnia & Herzeg, Ghana and Montenegro . 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org
  15. 15.  Impacts on Rangelands The total affected areas by combined ADH and LD is covering 418.76 million hectares represents 9.62 % of the total studied area, almost 42.5% of the total rangelands area, Countries affected over 15% could be ranked as follows: Namibia, Portugal, Spain, Somalia, Eritrea, Kenya, Jordan, South Africa, Ethiopia, Greece, Botswana, West Bank, Togo, Djibouti, Lebanon, Morocco, Benin, Syria, Sudan, Nigeria and Niger. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org
  16. 16. Impacts on Forests: The total affected Forests area by combined ADH and LD is covering 99.61 million hectares represents 2.29% of the total studied area, Almost 14.94% of the total forests area, Countries affected over 25% could be ranked as follows: Gabon, Eq. Guinea, Liberia, Macedonia, Cote d'Ivory, Cameroon, Greece, Italy, Ghana, Benin, Croatia, Sierra Leone, Albania , Portugal, Bosnia & Herzeg, Serbia, Congo and Nigeria 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org
  17. 17. Drought Vulnerability
  18. 18. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org i. ECONOMICAL INDICATOR (Ec) EcA : GDP in Million US$. EcB : GDP Growth rate NGI US$. EcC : Agriculture Share In GDP%. EcD : Labor Force% in Agriculture EcE : Unemployment Rate:%. EcF. : Below Poverty Line % EcG : Agriculture, value added per agri worker (USD) 2009-1999 EcH. : Evaluation of the Value of Total Agri.$ Food Production EcI : Value (millions of 2004-2006 in ($). EcJ : Change in crop production value per ha % ii. POPULATION (Po) PoA : Mean Population Density person/Km2 PoB : People in working age (15-64) years % PoC. : Population growth rate PoD. : Net migration rate: for each 1000 person PoE. : Females % of Labour force in Agriculture- 2011. PoF. : Average Agriculture population Change 2011 - 2001% iii. LAND USE (Lu) LuA. : Arable Area % from Total LuB : Change in Arable Areas 1999 - 2009 LuC : Permanent Crops Area % from Total LuD : Change in Permanent Crops Areas 1999 - 2009 LuE : Forest Area % from Total LuF. : Change in Forest Areas 1999 - 2009 iv. WATER AVAILABILITY WaA : Total Renewable Water Resources cu km WaB : Fresh water Withdrawal Total Cu km/y WaC : Fresh water Withdrawal agricultural % WaD : Fresh water Withdrawal per Capita Cu km/y
  19. 19. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Vulnerability classes Countries High to Moderate Vulnerability: moderate coverage of ADH 45-60 %, moderate severity and very Low to low capacity Somalia, Senegal and Kenya. Moderate Vulnerability: high coverage of ADH 75 – 85%, moderate severity and moderate capacity Eritrea, Morocco, Syria and Eq Guinea (Kuwait, has a very low vegetation cover). Moderate Vulnerability: high to moderate coverage of ADH 60-75 %, moderate severity and high to moderate capacity Tunisia, Djibouti, Namibia, Gabon, Iraq and Italy. Moderate to Low Vulnerability: high to moderate coverage of ADH 60-75 %, moderate severity and moderate to high capacity Spain, Portugal, Israel and Iran. Moderate to Low Vulnerability: very high coverage of ADH >85 %, high severity and very high capacity Greece and, Lebanon (Qatar, has a very low vegetation cover) Moderate to Low Vulnerability: moderate coverage of ADH 45-60 %, low severity and very low to low capacity Cote D Lvoire, Sierra Leanne, Ghana, Liberia and Nigeria Moderate to Low Vulnerability: moderate to low coverage ADH 30-45 %, moderate to low severity and moderate to low capacity South Africa, Burkina Faso, Chad, Benin, Togo, Ethiopia, Botswana, Cameroon, Sudan, Mali, Saudi Arabia and UAE ( UAE has a very low vegetation cover). Low Vulnerability: moderate coverage of ADH 45-60 %, moderate severity and high to moderate capacity France and Turkey Low Vulnerability: low coverage of ADH 15- 30 %, low severity and high to moderate capacity Jordan, Niger, Yemen, Mauritania, Algeria, Libya, Oman, Malawi, Burundi, Angola, Zimbabwe, Lesotho, Mozambique, Gambia, Tanzania, DR Congo, Zambia, Swaziland, and Rwanda Low Vulnerability: low coverage of ADH 15- 30 %, low severity and low capacity Egypt, Congo, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Low Vulnerability: low coverage of ADH less than 15 %, low severity and low capacity Madagascar, Uganda, Central Africa
  20. 20. ARAB REGION 3.d. Drought RISK – losses
  21. 21. Potential Estimated Losses TOTAL Studied Countries Losses in Million Ha Losses in Million US$ 235.22 82470 201490 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland No. of Worker lost Jobs in ‘000 www.grforum.org Few Countries Ranked Losses in Million Ha Losses in Million US$ No. of Worker lost Jobs in ‘000 Congo, DRC 28055794.1 11172.79 27912.00 Ethiopia 21878255.59 8418.26 20911.37 Nigeria 17538679.04 5717.73 13771.03 South Africa 16032279.37 6004.53 14846.67 Tanzania 12089148.92 4762.85 11877.77 Zimbabwe 9036187.4 3433.42 8510.55 Sudan 8806895.77 2306.84 5276.82 Somalia 8236064.16 2683.34 6461.93 Uganda 8039381.63 3213.51 8032.86 Kenya 7823062.7 2840.00 6983.38 Botswana 7009433.62 2501.73 6132.53 Zambia 6467461.31 2575.98 6435.53 Chad 6466895.06 2135.89 5157.93 France 6095833.07 1863.65 4427.40 Spain 5318089.94 1421.79 3270.03 Mozambique 5226077.9 2034.93 5064.95 Burkina Faso 5082968.03 1669.01 4025.68 Turkey 4993569.89 1509.69 3577.57 Italy 4166878.96 1228.04 2893.19 Mali 3446490.43 1076.53 2569.53 Cote d'Ivory 2921362.89 762.44 1742.33 Madagascar 2872512.67 1143.79 2857.36 Iran 2609328.87 697.26 1603.44 Guinea 2386557.87 907.66 2250.22 Cameroon 2343408.28 780.19 1887.10 Sierra Leone 2036319.53 656.00 1576.07 Senegal 1751423.53 511.31 1201.98
  22. 22. Potential Estimated Losses 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org TOTAL Studied Countries Losses in Million Ha Losses in Million US$ No. of Worker lost Jobs in ‘000 195.22 113797 36681.9 Few Countries Ranked Losses in Million Ha Losses in Million US$ No. of Worker lost Jobs in ‘000 South Africa 22318579.74 3153.29 5001313.44 Sudan 19837639.34 1795.65 3050895.59 Ethiopia 19174720.34 2457.87 3948947.89 Botswana 16889275.68 1773.38 2936139.99 Somalia 12605124.55 1951.65 3061040.64 Niger 12106218.71 1276.87 2112533.50 Namibia 10253835.66 1580.14 2479730.92 Kenya 9015467.87 1229.61 1959126.59 Spain 7819584.04 906.08 1477125.75 Mali 7414864.38 727.80 1218764.89 Nigeria 7249065.45 644.53 1098745.83 Chad 6572948.15 554.25 954499.77 Iran 6041217.29 424.37 759525.75 Iraq 4209875.92 504.62 818522.40 France 2710727.47 416.02 653176.64 Portugal 2608605.54 255.38 427842.30 Eritrea 2571093.61 231.92 394297.37 Syria 2042301.66 229.82 376332.50 Mauritania 1831670.96 204.31 335023.86 Angola 1808280.97 204.95 335245.10 Zimbabwe 1454235.96 180.04 290675.60 Congo 1410963.20 149.82 247600.58 Turkey 1374726.93 170.90 275758.87 Italy 1350422.29 185.24 294920.51 Burkina Faso 1300985.55 174.35 278436.06 Ghana 1074881.73 76.36 136322.86
  23. 23. Potential Estimated Losses TOTAL Studied Countries Losses in Million Ha Losses in Million US$ 62.53 28639 18361.9 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland No. of Worker lost Jobs in ‘000 www.grforum.org Few Countries Ranked Losses in Million Ha Losses in Million US$ No. of Worker lost Jobs in ‘000 Spain 9957652 5802.98 3854354 Gabon 5800186 2666.96 1710209 France 5611925 4479.10 3078726 Cameroon 5116982 1270.45 696985.8 Italy 4429314 3185.01 2167294 Nigeria 4312830 1481.81 895712.4 Portugal 3758955 2094.88 1383209 Congo 2500443 1179.78 759815.9 Cote d'Ivory 2413521 501.19 255214.9 Liberia 1817647 370.10 186690.6 Ghana 1783878 381.84 197184.9 Congo, DRC 1696863 478.93 274357.7 Benin 1219047 272.51 143433.9 Turkey 1095823 732.61 494665.5 Angola 1019811 278.33 157755.1 Guinea 896073.9 179.66 89943.88 Madagascar 825736.2 178.84 92840.58 Sierra Leone 793430.4 163.83 83200.47 Greece 725424.5 355.11 230059.2 Algeria 722952.3 146.34 73610.17 Croatia 684358.7 560.53 386180 Serbia 635307.7 527.30 363709.6 Equatorial Guinea 624223.2 173.06 98585.66 Sudan and South S 589337.2 160.04 90564.6 Mozambique 467505.9 101.95 53090.24
  24. 24. Potential Estimated Losses TOTAL Studied Countries Losses in Million Ha Losses in Million US$ 758.23 207682 8503.24 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland No. of Worker lost Jobs in ‘000 www.grforum.org Few Countries Ranked Losses in Million Ha Losses in Million US$ No. of Worker lost Jobs in ‘000 South Africa 38668525.31 9224.27 5050116.24 Nigeria 33957727.75 8476.41 3022016.93 Congo DR 31163620.3 11801.54 549870.28 France 30882478.41 8800.62 7032101.29 Sudan 29233872.31 4262.53 3146737.01 Ethiopia 24650857.6 8692.67 436997.1 Spain 23095325.98 8130.85 5334749.78 Somalia 20857862.96 4638.91 3069606.915 Bulgaria 16895488.1 1775.82 2936933.15 Tanzania 13074065.43 4889.67 157304.47 Niger 11588957.01 1952.32 2480600.729 Zimbabwe 10578517.09 3631.08 307995.523 Gabon 9086158.15 3254.58 2363791.04 Kuwait 9016274.27 1229.7 1959126.71 Italy 8701500.01 4423.4 2187509.7 Kenya 8123291.79 2880.74 42702.42 Uganda 8089480.96 3221.33 15362.969 Mauritania 7618158.07 768.29 1218849.66 Turkey 7464119.82 2413.2 774001.94 Cameroon 7460864.08 2050.66 698909.99 Iraq 7452251.97 770.96 761187.164 Oman 7268759.25 650.55 1098760.13 Zambia 7092178.92 2656.09 78092.3 Botswana 7056271.75 2511.1 10816.343 Chad 6894349.42 2264.4 96605.64 Comoros 6572948.15 554.25 954499.77 Mozambique 5992105.8 2159.6 98106.48
  25. 25. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org CONCLUSIONS: Farmers, poor people in rural areas are moving to cities creating pressure on housing and Random settlement areas. By the year 2050 almost 70% of population will be leaving in cities many of them without are jobless or work in informal business job . Loosing land and renewable water sources means less food production, degradation, reduction in biodiversity, instability, and increase conflicts, displacement and migration. Agriculture needs investment as the share in GDP vary In south Europe is 2.5%...In Arab countries 11% In Africa around 35% More INVESTMENT and ECONOMIC REFORM is REQUIRED Land degradation is a measure threat to Agriculture and when drought cycles increase in intensity, frequency and duration under high variability the threat tern to Crises. Prevention, Recovery and Building Resilience Require using our resources better in Research, Education & Training, Implementation & Practice and Policy. Nature resources are only decreasing in draylands, and shared water resources could become a real threat and reason for conflicts…….. SHARING and MANAGING is the Key “Drylands” which represent 41% of the globe and 2 billion people), they require better attention, “Oasis “ are under threat and severly affected by Nature Metrological Hazards.
  26. 26. Thank you 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org wadiderian@gmail.com wadiderian@yahoo.com

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