MENG-Risk differentiation for critical infrastructure protection-ID1504-IDRC2014_b

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5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice 24-28 August 2014 in Davos, Switzerland

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MENG-Risk differentiation for critical infrastructure protection-ID1504-IDRC2014_b

  1. 1. Risk Differentiation for Critical 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Infrastructure Protection Sascha Meng*, Marcus Wiens & Frank Schultmann Karlsruhe Institute of Technology Institute for Industrial Production Hertzstraße 16, Bldg. 06.33, 76187 Karlsruhe, Germany
  2. 2. Why protecting critical infrastructures? 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org
  3. 3. Characteristics of critical infrastructures 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org » essential for welfare » connected, interdependent, complex » exposed to risks
  4. 4. uncertainty event consequences knowledge 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Risk and risk types » risk = function risk type 1 chance risk type 2 choice
  5. 5. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Risks type 1 » caused by nature or randomness » unintentional » without interaction » safety-relevant  fire, floods, storms, earthquakes, …  technical failures, material defects, …  unintentional mistakes (errors), ignorance
  6. 6. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Risks type 2 » caused by malicious human behaviour » mainly intentional » with interaction » security-relevant (and safety-relevant)  fire (arson)  fraud, bribery, thievery  terrorism
  7. 7. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Risk management risk identification risk analysis risk evaluation risk treatment risk monitoring different risks, same approach?
  8. 8. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Risk analysis hitherto » one (standard) approach » probability based » interactions not considered  variance analysis, probability risk analysis, scenario analysis, bayesian analysis, …
  9. 9. type 1 type 2 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Risk analysis hitherto - example adverse event event 1 event 2 likelihood without protect. 1 > 2 3 > 4 likelihood with protect. 1 2 > 3 4 < > adaptability
  10. 10. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Risk analysis in future » different (suitable) approaches » probability based (where possible) » interactions considered (if necessary)  variance analysis, probability risk analysis, scenario analysis, bayesian analysis, …  game theory
  11. 11. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Conclusions » rethink risk analysis » improve risk analysis approaches » integrate different risk analysis approaches
  12. 12. Added value for the Post 2015 Framework for 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Disaster Risk Reduction • How did your work support the implementation of the Hyogo Framework for Action: – it provides a general approach, applicable to many fields – it focuses on general problems rather than on specific problems – the approach can be used to mitigate the consequences of man-made as well as of natural hazards • From your perspective what are the main gaps, needs and further steps to be addressed in the Post 2015 Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction in – Research: there is need to better understand complexity in systems – Education & Training: there is a need to improve risk perception – Implementation & Practice: there is a need for tailored risk analysis – Policy: there is a need for better risk policies
  13. 13. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Thank you for your attention. Contact details Dipl.-Ing. Sascha Meng Karlsruhe Institute of Technology Institute for Industrial Production Research Group on Risk Management Hertzstrasse 16, Bldg. 06.33, 76187 Karlsruhe, Germany +49 721 608 44577 sascha.meng@kit.edu

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