Yoshio KAJITANI1, Hirokazu TATANO2 1Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University, Japan; 2Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University, Japan

1. IDRC, Davos, 2012
Production Capacity Losses Due to the 311 Disaster
–Facility Damage and Lifeline Disruption Impacts
Hirokazu Tatano and Yoshio Kajitani
1 Disaster Prevention Research Institute Kyoto University

2. Contents
 Production Capacity Loss Estimation
(production/operation ability under damaged
resources)
(supply side)
significant information
 Regional Economic Loss Estimation
(Spatial General Equilibrium Model (SCGE) )
(including demand side, supply-chain impacts, etc)
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3. Processed Food (Fish) Factory
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4. How to evaluate “Capacity Loss” of
industrial sector ?
Hazard
-Tsunami Exposure
-Ground Motion -Distribution of Firms
-Evacuation Area (Number of Employee)
（Nuclear）
Vulnerability
-Functional Fragility Curve
From
Capacity Losses previous
(Facility Damage) disaster
Lifeline and surveys
Disruption Resilience
Status -Lifeline Resilience Factor
-Recovery from Facility
Damage
Production Capacity Losses due to compared
Facility Damage/recovery and with actual
Lifeline Disruptions production index
(industrial sector)
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5. Hazards: Earthquake Ground Motion
Response Spectrum
for velocity
20 km radius h: damping Factor (20%)
From F1NP T: natural period
(Suetomi, 2011)
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6. Tsunami Inundated Area
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7. Functional Fragility Curve
1
State I 100% (No Damage)
0.9
Excess Probability of Occurance
0.8 State II
0.7
<100%
0.6
State III
0.5 <66% State
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
State IV
<33%
(Severe Damage)
0
0 25 50 75 100 125
Spectral Intensity
Based on the surveys to the firms damaged by 2004 earthquake disaster
Nakano, 2011
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8. Lifeline Resilience Factor
Production
level
Normal（=1）
Resilience factor
0 t1 t2 t3 Time
Lifelines Electricity Water Gas
(utilities) supply supply supply
disrupted restored restored restored
Kajitani and Tatano, 2005, 2009
Based on the surveys in
Tokai regions
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9. Recovery of Facilities from the EQ Damage
120
100
80
Create
Hazard curve type
60
function
40
Non-
Manufacturing
20
0
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200
Based on the Surveys by Nakano et al., 2012 (Manufacturing
700, Non-Manufacturing 1300 in the part of Tohoku
region, excluding Tsunami region)
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10. Loss Estimation with Resilience:
Production Capacity
Facility Damage+Recovery Business Interruption Losses
(Facility Damage+Recovery+Lifelin
Impacts)
Facility Damage+Recovery
+Lifeline Impacts
Facility Damage
Time
Facility Damage+Lifeline Impacts
Lifeline Resilience
1 Disaster
Recovery of Gas
Recovery of Water
Factor
0
Recovery of Electricity
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11. Est. Result (Transport. Manf. in Fukushima)
Facility Damage & Recovery & Lifeline Impacts
Facility Damage & Lifeline Impacts
Facility Damage & Recovery
1
0.9
0.8
0.7
Production Capacity
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
3/11 4/10 5/10 6/9 7/9 8/8 9/7 10/7 11/6 12/6
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12. 12
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
0
1
Mining
Construction
Food
Apparel & Textile
Wood & Wooden Products
Paper-Pulp
Chemicals
Refinery & Coal
Glass Stone Clay
Steel
Non-Ferrous
Metal Products
General Machinery
Electric Machinery
Information & Comm. Device
Electronic Parts
Transport Eq
Precision Machinery
Other Manufacturing
Estimated Capacity Losses
Communication
Transportation
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Ground Motion, Tsunami, and Nuclear(20 km radius)
Retail & Wholesale
Financial & Insurance
Real Estate
Medical Service
Other Services
Iwate
Miyagi
Ibaragi
Tochigi
Fukushima
Around 30% of capacity is lost

13. Index of Industrial Production (IIP)
All sectors Transportation Steel
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
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14. Estimated Results 1 (March, 2011)
Facility Damage
Facility Damage and Lifeline Impacts
Facility Damage and Recovery
Facility Damage, Recovery, and Lifeline Impacts
1
Tochigi
0.9
Ibaragi
0.8
0.7 Iwate
Estimated
0.6
0.5
Fukushima
0.4
Miyagi
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
Index of Industrial Production (Mar/Feb)
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15. Estimated Results 3 (May, 2011)
Facility Damage
Facility Damage and Lifeline Impacts
Facility Damage and Recovery
Facility Damage, Recovery, and Lifeline Impacts IbaragiTochigi
1
0.9
0.8 Iwate
0.7
Estimated
0.6
Fukushima
0.5
0.4
0.3 Miyagi
0.2
0.1
0
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
Index of Industrial Production (May/Feb)
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16. Conclusion (Capacity Loss Estimation)
 Development of Capacity Loss Estimation Model
(Hazard, Vulnerability, Exposure, Resilience)
 Relatively good relationships between “estimated”
and “observed”. (reasonable benchmark data is
used)
 To be continued for the latter part of study
(connection with regional economic models)
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