IDRC14-Kaveckispptx

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5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice 24-28 August 2014 in Davos, Switzerland

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IDRC14-Kaveckispptx

  1. 1. Land use modelling – a way of mapping future hazard-sensitive 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org population Giedrius Kaveckis Benjamin Bechtel Jürgen Ossenbrügge Thomas Pohl Institute of Geography, Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability, University of Hamburg, Germany
  2. 2. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Outline • Introduction/motivation; • Hazard-sensitive population; • Land use and population; • Residential local climate zones for Hamburg; • Future land modelling; • Disaggregation; • Future focus; • Future population mapping framework; • Conclusions and outlook; • Added value for the Post 2015 Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction.
  3. 3. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Introduction/motivation • Number of population exposed to natural hazards is increasing; • Intensive urbanization of hazard-prone areas; • Need to identify future hazard-sensitive population groups; • Aim of research – analyze if land use modelling can support future population mapping; • Our approach – disaggregation of future social projections.
  4. 4. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Hazard-sensitive population • More or less, all people are sensitive to hazards; • Losses of women and children are 14 times greater than than men during a disaster (UNDP 2010); • 82% of victims of 2003 heat wave in France were over 75 years old; • Sensitivity differs for specific hazard; • Common indicators: age, gender, race, ethnicity, employment, income, diseases, mobility, education etc. • Main problem – lack of future data; • Our selected indicators: age and gender, social status (may be included). Additional sources: Poumadère et al.2005, Cutter et al. 2001
  5. 5. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Land use and population • Land use – common term; • Land use does not fully represent urban diversity (i.e. residential); • Our solution – local climate zones (LCZ); • LCZ consider housing type, land cover, land use, morphology; • We enhanced LCZ scheme with European building structures; • 11 LCZ can be used for housing of population; • Assumption – social properties of population varies between LCZ; • To test assumption – quantitative LCZ and population count comparison analysis (outlook). Source: Stewart et al. 2012
  6. 6. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Residential local climate zones (LCZ)
  7. 7. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Future land use modelling • We use a commercial Metronamica future land modelling tool; • Metronamica is based on cellular automata and MOLAND model; • Through calibration of historical environment, it models future land use. Neighborhood potential between two local climte zones LCZ coverage (1990) of Hamburg case study area
  8. 8. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Disaggregation • Common mapping of population – spatial disaggregation of census data; • Disaggregation (downscaling) – transfer of coarse information into more detailed scale; • Zones’ types: source (known data), target (finer units); • Common methods: simple area weighting, binary dasymetric mapping, classified dasymetric mapping; • To improve accuracy, the ancillary information (i.e. land use with densities) is essential; • Usual techniques to deliver densities: regression model, locally fitted regression model; • We are disaggregating future social projections using local climate zones as a proxy.
  9. 9. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland Population www.grforum.org Future focus Census Data Land data + densities Future population projections (by gender and age) Future modelled land data + densities Time Today Future Source data Ancillary data Disaggregation Result Future hazard-sensitive population Disaggregation
  10. 10. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Future population mapping framework
  11. 11. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Conclusions and outlook • Our case study and test bed – Hamburg Metropolitan area in 2050; • Classified dasymetric mapping method with locally fitted regression model is most appropriate for our case study; • Our approach and framework contributes to future population’s vulnerability assessment at the local level; • Novelty – future vulnerability is based not on today’s, but on future’s exposure. • Need to compare densities of hazard-sensitive properties for each residential LCZ; • Future land modelling – tough task with a lot of uncertainty; • Population trends, land development scenarios, migration and time span should be considered.
  12. 12. Added value for the Post 2015 Framework for 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Disaster Risk Reduction • The following deliverables support the implementation of the Hyogo Framework for Action: – Selected indicators support decision-makers to assess future disasters; – Framework strengthens capacity to apply new methods to assess vulnerability and risk; – Our approach encourages to use the guidelines in the context of land use policy and planning. • The main gaps, needs and further steps to be addressed in the Post 2015 Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction in – Research: increase cooperation and coordination between research teams; – Education & Training: enhance research capacities and education in developing countries; – Implementation & Practice: strengthen cooperation between business, industry and science, especially at the local level; – Policy: apply great examples of effective policy to bring science, business and industry together.
  13. 13. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Thank you for your attention! Giedrius Kaveckis Institute of Geography, Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability, University of Hamburg, Germany Email: giedrius.kaveckis@uni-hamburg.de Tel.: +49 40 42838 7589

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