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Idrc david alexander


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GRF Davos

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Idrc david alexander

  1. 1. Civil defence, civil protectionand sustainability David Alexander Global Risk Forum - Davos
  2. 2. Organisational Political Naturalsystems: systems: systems:management decisions function Hazard Vulnerability ResilienceSocial Technicalsystems: systems:behaviour malfunction
  3. 3. An evolutionary perspective
  4. 4. Technological,economic and External social issues hazards GOVERNMENTRegulatory Stewardship role role Management role Operational and policy risks
  5. 5. Mitigation Protection Hazard Threat Vulnerability Exposure RiskCivil protection Civil defence Response
  6. 6. Armed aggression on the part of states Natural disasters Civil defence Civil protection"Homeland security" "Civil contingencies" (civil defence) (resilience) Armed aggression "Generic" disasters on the part of groups of dissidents
  7. 7. Military CivilianArmed Civil administrationforces Volunteers (civil society) Emergency services(army) [residual role]Civil defence Civil protectionCommand and control Co-ordination and co-operationChain of command Autonomy
  8. 8. Emergency management: an evolutionary approachCivil defence...............Civil protection Proxy ParticipatoryCommand and control CollaborationVertical chain Task forcesof command Population consultedPopulation excluded and includedLaw and order Problem solvingSecrecy Openness
  9. 9. An organisational perspective
  10. 10. Command Locus of function control principleTension of Spectrum of opposites alternatives Locus of Support collaboration function (support) principle
  11. 11. organisation E E Command te me te c me r function c hn r ge hn ge c a nc iica nc y ll s y a s e r a nd e r v nd viic cees P P ub ub lliic c a a an ad nd dm d p mn p o iin s olliit iis t t c t ra Policies/Ethics iiciia ra t a ns t ors ns ors Operations Strategies GGen en pu er pu b er a b a lliic ll Tactics Results c O T S R E P
  12. 12. The command function (PESTOR) The command function (PESTOR)•• based on command and control based on command and control•• a clear division of responsibilities a clear division of responsibilities•• a residual component of authoritarianism a residual component of authoritarianism•• hierarchical decision-making processes hierarchical decision-making processes•• possibly not compatible possibly not compatible with collaborative models.. with collaborative models
  13. 13. The support function principle The support function principle•• non hierarchical and based on networks non hierarchical and based on networks•• encourages fllows and encourages fllows and cascades of information cascades of information•• it is easy to identify the manager of a it is easy to identify the manager of a particular function in a different unit particular function in a different unit•• difficult to apply the principle of difficult to apply the principle of command, which is poorly articulated command, which is poorly articulated•• difficult or impossible to integrate difficult or impossible to integrate with command function-based systems.. with command function-based systems
  14. 14. Communications Logistics Support Medical function Search & rescueorganisation Media liaison ...etc.
  15. 15. Command function principle: command and control modelInformation Management technology decisions Support function principle: collaborative and cooperation model
  16. 16. Hierarchical divisions: Geographical national, divisions: regional, catchments, local, etc. jurisdictions, areas, etc. Division and integrationFunctionaldivisions: Organisationalgovernment, divisions:healthcare, police, fire,commerce, etc. ambulance, etc.
  17. 17. Top-down Evolving Largestrategic technologicalsituation hazards Instability Complex threats hazards Na-tech Civil Defence (hybrid) Civil Protection hazards Enhanced Natural natural hazards hazardsEvolving Majorclimate geophysicalchange events Bottom-up
  18. 18. Civil contingencies Civil protection management ResilienceThe risk environment
  19. 19. Counter-terrorism activityOrganisation Stockpiling• procedures • equipment• event scenarios • supplies• emergency plansIntelligence Training• collection • plan dissemination• interpretation • exercises• warning Involvement of civil protectionSurveillance Analysis• automatic (CCTV) • laboratory• manual (personnel) • forensic
  20. 20. Into the future
  21. 21. THE KNOWN PROBABILITY Grey (constrained uncertainty) area Cause Single, multiple or cascading effectsPURE UNCERTAINTY Causal relationship unknown THE UNKNOWN
  22. 22. Indeterminacy Climate change Collateral Cascading vulnerability effects Interaction Secondary between risks disasters "Fat-tailed" distributions Probability of impacts
  23. 23. Hazards and risks: disaster preparedness Uncertain future:Governance: long-term democratic Livelihoods: trendsparticipation diversity climate in decision and security change making capacity to adapt RESILIENCE: managing risks adapting to change securing resources
  24. 24. SUSTAINABILITY disaster risk reduction RISKSdaily: unemployment, poverty, disease, etc.major disaster: floods, storms, quakes, etc. emerging risks: pandemics, climate change resource consumption stewardship of the environment economic activities lifestyles SUSTAINABILITY
  25. 25. Sustainable development and livelihoodsPublic and Sustainable political funding support Sustainable civil protection programmes
  26. 26. emergency-planning. Thank you for listening!