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ICT vs Risks Disasters

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• Need to understand all structural and electronic dielectric properties of materials. In the movie, we see a so-called ball-and-stick graphical representation, where the balls represent atoms and the sticks represent the chemical bonds. On the basis of these models, we can calculate the important electronic properties and behavior of various materials. In this case we are interested in the behavior of the atoms at the interface of the Silicon substrate with the SiO2 insulator. The moving contour is the contour of the electrostatic potential
• As we said previously, the NWS uses a synoptic scale model to provide weather forecasts for the entire United States. These models are run using as 29 km grid. Typically, synoptic scale models use a mixture of: 40% physics 50% dynamics 10% micro-physics Events like thunderstorms, wind shear, land-sea breezes, and other small scale phenomena cannot be “seen” at this level of resolution. They most likely fall entirely within a grid space. Since computational models solve the equations for the points at which the grids meet, these events are not forecast. It’s like trying to catch small fish using a net with large holes. each piece must be sized on a certain scale. These models are classed as “synoptic” scale models. The current technology uses a 29 x 29 kilometer scale. That is each square is 29 kilometers on a side. Thus each square covers an area of 841 km2. Because of the size of atmospheric events such as thunderstorms, or wind-shear, they cannot be “seen” in synoptic scale models. Meso-scale models by definition, use a smaller grid size. In the case of the Olympic Games, we used 8 x 8 kilometer and 2 x 2 kilometer grids. Thus each square represented either 64 km2 or 4 km2. By using these smaller scale grids, we can now “see” events like thunderstorms. be aware of any hazards the weather may impose in determining routing and evacuation plans.
• ICT vs Risks Disasters

1. 1. ICT vs. Risks & Disasters Dr. Abdel Labbi IBM Research - Zurich
2. 3. Some high potential technologies … <ul><li>Information Capture and Sharing (Collaboration) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Social Media </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Speech/Language technologies </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Wireless revolution </li></ul></ul>
3. 4. Wireless Hope in Developing Countries <ul><li>The many challenges in Africa – huge geographic distances, widely dispersed populations, little existing telecommunications infrastructure – have conspired to create a wireless hotbed </li></ul><ul><li>African use of mobile phones has been far more innovative than in Europe, largely because the specific needs of Africa require innovation </li></ul><ul><li>Mobile device as electronic wallet, among other things … </li></ul><ul><li>Opportunities </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Identity, Address & Location </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Healthcare & Disease Management </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>News, Collaboration, Democratic Participation </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Financial Transactions & Banking Services </li></ul></ul>
4. 5. Supercomputers … super fast and super cheap! 1 Teraflop is equivalent to: 10’000 Cray 1s 287 Pentium 4s 5’000 iPods 1 Game Console x 1700 <ul><li>IBM Develops the World’s Fastest Option Pricing Module </li></ul><ul><li>Uses Blue Gene to do 5 million option valuations a second </li></ul><ul><li>20 times faster than the previous record </li></ul><ul><li>Finds the most accurate price of stock options depending on market data including stock prices and trading volumes </li></ul><ul><li>Then performs arbitrage (buy-low sell high) </li></ul>IBM Roadrunner World’s Fastest Computer 1700 Teraflops
5. 6. The Spoken Web: why we need it? <ul><li>Impact of WWW is restricted: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>to a small percentage of human population (e.g. 4% in India) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>barely 17% of world’s population has access to Internet [IWS] </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Causes </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Affordability </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Of the other 83%, about 53% of the population lives below USD 2 per day [WPDS] </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Literacy </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>a significant portion of the remaining 30% is semi-literate or illiterate </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Relevance </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Information and services on WWW are not very relevant for this section of the population </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><li>Challenge: Bringing Internet to the masses ! </li></ul>
6. 7. The Spoken Web: Internet on GSM …
7. 8. Some high potential technologies … <ul><li>Information Capture and Sharing (Collaboration) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Social Media </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Speech/Language technologies </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Wireless revolution </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Early Warning and Response Planning Systems </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Weather Fore/Nowcasting </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Large Scale Simulations (e.g. pandemics) </li></ul></ul>
8. 9. Forecasts for Weather-Sensitive Operations/Locations <ul><li>Problem : Weather has a significant impact on our society and economy </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Weather is not just an environmental issue, it is a major economic factor </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Recent studies estimate US weather sensitivity at ~\$3T annually (~1/3 GDP), and growing, partially due to climatic change </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Many applications rely on weather, including energy emergency management and disaster warning, transportation, agriculture, insurance, sports, entertainment, broadcasting, tourism, construction, communications, etc. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>7000 people are killed and 800,000 injured each year on US highways due to weather, and airlines in the US lose about \$4B/year due to weather-related delays </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Businesses & Governments are driven by weather but decision making is often reactive not proactive, especially on a local, short-term scale </li></ul></ul>
9. 10. Classes of Weather Models for Different Geographic Scales, Time Ranges & Applications <ul><li>US National Weather Service uses a model on a 12 km grid, available on three-hour intervals </li></ul><ul><li>40% physics, 50% dynamics, 10% microphysics </li></ul><ul><li>Thunderstorms, wind shear, land-sea breezes, circulation induced from topography cannot be seen at this resolution </li></ul><ul><li>Regional models employ meso- and cloud-scale grids (e.g., 1-10 km) </li></ul><ul><li>50% physics, 20% dynamics, 30% explicit cloud microphysics </li></ul><ul><li>Can resolve storms, winds, etc. </li></ul>
10. 11. DeepThunder Fore/Nowcasts Visualization of Clouds, Wind and Precipitation, including Rain Bands and Eye Wall <ul><li>Experimental windcast with 12 and 4 km nests with 4 km coverage for all of Florida </li></ul><ul><li>Heavy rainfall predicted with similar distribution to reported rainfall </li></ul>
11. 12. Better Forecast, Better Response … Visualization of Winds and Hurricane Eye
12. 13. Thank You !