How do different geohazards affect mortality and economic losses?

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Brian G. MCADOO, Nicole KRENITSKY, Jared AUGENSTEIN, Matthew ZELTZER

Yale-NUS College, Singapore

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How do different geohazards affect mortality and economic losses?

  1. 1. How do geohazards affectmortality and economic losses? Brian G. McAdoo, Nicole Krenitsky, Jared Augenstein, Matt Zeltzer, and Ming-Wen An
  2. 2. Natural disaster summary, 1900-2010 (EM-DAT, 2012) this study 2000-20091900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Year
  3. 3. FurcyAbove Port-au-Prince, HaitiMay 2010
  4. 4. Port-au-Prince, HaitiMagnitude 7.080,000-310,000 deadMay 2010
  5. 5. San Francisco Bay Port-au-Prince1989 ‘Loma Prieta’ 2010 Haiti• M=7.1 • M=7.0•7.4 M exposed population • 10 M in Haiti• 6,688 p/km2 (SF) • 28,353 p/km2 (P-au-P)• 63 deaths • 300,000 deaths• Bay Area GDP- $300 B • Haiti GDP- $11 B• $5.6 B in losses • $8 B in losses•42 Fire Stations • 2 Fire Stations in Haiti
  6. 6. Port-au-PrinceGDP GDP
  7. 7. Atmospheric Cyclone Nargis- 25000 138,366 deaths deaths 1000000 $1,300 per capita GDP damage trend damages y = 0.17x0.68 100000 Estimated Damage (US$ Million) R² = 0.15 20000 10000 1000 15000Deaths 100 10 10000 1 5000 mortality trend 0.1 y = -87.66ln(x) + 1135 R² = 0.0006 0.01 0 0.001 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000 GDP per capita (2000 US$)
  8. 8. Surface 1400 deaths 100000 damages damage trend y = 0.68x0.49 10000 1200 Estimated Damage (US$ Million) R² = 0.09 1000 1000 100 800Deaths 10 600 1 400 mortality trend 0.1 y = -28.0n(x) + 280 200 R² = 0.08 0.01 0 0.001 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000 GDP per capita (2000 US$)
  9. 9. Tectonic 180000 100000 deaths Indian Ocean Tsunami damages 160000 Estimated Damage (US$ Million) 10000 140000 y = 1.452x0.4917 1000 R² = 0.07268 120000Deaths 100000 100 80000 10 60000 1 40000 y = -1721ln(x) + 17463 0.1 20000 R² = 0.01758 0 0.01 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000 GDP per capita (2000 US$)
  10. 10. What about the hazard? Geohazard lower income nation higher income nation increasing mortality increasing economic losses
  11. 11. 1 All Disasters DroughtDeath (log scale, normalized) Earthquake High per capita GDP Extreme Temperature Low per capita GDP Flood 10-1 Mass Movement Storm Volcano Wildfire 10-2 10-3 no deaths 10-5 10 -4 10 -3 10 -2 10 -1 1 Economic Loss (log scale, normalized)
  12. 12. Medium income nations HighLow income nations income nationsGDP/capita US $2,500 <GDP/capita > US $10,000 < US $2,500 GDP/capita < US 10,000n=658 n=380 n=182 Drought Earthquake Extreme Temperature Flood Mass Movement Storm Volcano Wildfire no deaths
  13. 13. 1 0.8 Drought (n=61) 0.6 Disaster Type Atmospheric Hazards 0.5 Drought 0.4 Extreme Temperature 0.3 Storm 0.2 (log scale, normalized) 0.1 0.07 Drought (n=61) 0.05 0.04 Extreme Temperature (n=25) 10-1 0.03 0.02 Storm (n=473)Deaths 0.01 0.007 0.005 0.004 0.003 Number Killed normalized 0.002 0.001 10-2 0.0007 0.0005 0.0004 0.0003 0.0002 1 Disaster Subtype 0.0001 0.7 Cold wav e 0.00007 0.5 Extreme winter conditions Cold wave (n=8) 0.4 Heat wav e 0.00005 0.3 0.00004 0.2 0.00003 10-3 0.00002 0.1 0.07 Extreme winter (n=3) Heat wave (n=14) 0.05 0.04 0.00001 0.03 0.000007 0.02 0.000005 Deaths 0.000004 0.01 0.007 0.000001 0.000003 0.000005 0.00001 0.00003 0.00006 0.0001 0.0002 0.0004 0.0006 0.001 0.002 0.003 0.005 0.007 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.05 0.07 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 0.005 10-5 10-4 10-3 10-2 10-1 1 0.004 Number Killed Estimated Damage Normalized 0.003 normalized 0.002 Economic Loss 0.001 0.0007 0.0005 (log scale, normalized) 0.0004 0.0003 0.0002 0.0001 0.00007 0.00005 0.00004 0.00003 0.00002 0.00001 80 0.000007 y = -1.4x + 64 0.000005 0.000004 number of disasters 70 0.000001 0.000003 0.000005 0.00001 0.00003 0.00006 0.0001 0.0002 0.0004 0.0006 0.001 0.002 0.003 0.005 0.007 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.05 0.07 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 R² = 0.21 Estimated Damage Normalized 60 Extratropical cyclone (n=39) 50 Local storm (n=165) z Tropical cyclone (n=269) 40 30 20 10 0 Economic Loss
  14. 14. Flash flood (n=89) 1 1 0.7 Disaster Type General flood (n=378) Surface Hazards f lood 0.5 Coastal flood (n=13) 0.4 Mass Mov ement 0.3 Wildf ire 0.2 (log scale, normalized) 0.1 Flood (n=480) Mass movements (n=23) 0.07 0.05 0.1 0.04 0.03 0.02 Wildfire (n=43)Deaths 0.01 0.007 0.005 0.004 Number Killed 0.003 normalized 0.002 0.001 0.001 0.0007 0.0005 0.0004 0.0003 0.0002 0.0001 0.00007 Avalanche (n=1) Landslide (n=22) 0.00005 0.00004 0.0001 0.00003 0.00002 0.00001 0.000007 Deaths 0.000005 0.000004 0.000001 0.000003 0.000005 0.00001 0.00003 0.00006 0.0001 0.0002 0.0004 0.0006 0.001 0.002 0.003 0.005 0.007 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.05 0.07 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 0.00001 0.0001 0.001 Estimated Damage Normalized 0.01 0.1 1 Economic Loss (log scale, normalized) Brush fire (n=2) number of disasters 80 y = -2.22x + 66.8 R² = 0.31 Forest fire (n=33) 70 Grassland fire (n=8) 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Economic Loss
  15. 15. 1 1 Disaster Type Tectonic Hazards 0.7 Earthquake (seismic activ ity ) 0.5 0.4 Volcano 0.3 0.2 Earthquake (n=108) (log scale, normalized) 0.1 0.07 0.05 0.04 Volcano (n=7) Earthquake (n=95) 0.1 0.03 0.02 Tsunami (n=13) 0.01Deaths 0.007 0.005 0.004 Number Killed 0.003 normalized 0.002 0.001 0.001 0.0007 0.0005 0.0004 0.0003 0.0002 0.0001 0.00007 0.00005 0.00004 Deaths 0.0001 0.00003 0.00002 0.00001 0.000007 0.000005 0.000004 0.000001 0.000003 0.000005 0.00001 0.00003 0.00006 0.0001 0.0002 0.0004 0.0006 0.001 0.002 0.003 0.005 0.007 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.05 0.07 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 0.00001 0.0001 0.001 Estimated Damage Normalized 0.01 0.1 1 Economic Loss Volcano (n=7) (log scale, normalized) 20 y = -0.38x + 13.6 18 R² = 0.07 number of disasters 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 Economic Loss 2 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
  16. 16. Earthquakes affect poorer nations with highermortality and comparatively less economicslosses. Port-au-Prince, Haiti May 2010
  17. 17. Extreme temperatures affect wealthycountries disproportionately- highermortality and economic losses.In the ‘global south’ temperature swingsaren’t so extreme.
  18. 18. Storms in wealthy nations have highereconomic losses and poorer nations highermortality from storms that cause a similar levelof economic loss.
  19. 19. Floods are responsible for the most disasters-wealthy nations limit death toll whileeconomic losses continue to climb.
  20. 20. Mass movements affect poorcountries almost exclusively
  21. 21. Wildfires affect wealthy nationsexclusively- perhaps those withaggressive fire suppression programslike the United States.
  22. 22. Nächste Halten• Better data!• Longer time window…• Poll nations on DRR spending – What constitutes DRR spending? – Are priorities appropriate?
  23. 23. Banda Aceh, 2009 mitigation resilience risk = (hazard x vulnerability / resilience) - mitigation
  24. 24. functionally useless in near field works in near field > $60 M 2 chickens Asili +/- a goat Am. Samoa

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