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EXPLORING THE FUTURE OF RESILIENCE AND
MITIGATION TO BETTER PLAN FOR DISASTER RISK
REDUCTION
Graeme Riddell, Hedwig van Delden, Holger Maier, Aaron Zecchin, & Graeme Dandy
Thinking about risk makes us consider
many factors….
EXPOSURE
HAZARDVULNERABILITY
Thinking about risk makes us consider
many factors….
EXPOSURE
RISK
HAZARDVULNERABILITY
Thinking about risk makes us consider
many factors….
EXPOSURE
RISK
HAZARDVULNERABILITY
Demographics
Technology
Climate Change
Healthcare
Social Welfare
Ageing
Community values
Economic development Population
Urbanisation
Conflict
Immigration
Extreme climates
Politics
Thinking about risk makes us consider
many factors….
VULNERABILITY
Population
Urbanisation
Thinking about risk makes us consider
many factors….
VULNERABILITY
Population
Urbanisation
VULNERABILITY
Demographics
Technology
Climate Change
Healthcare
Social Welfare
Ageing
Community values
Economic development
Conflict
Immigration
Extreme climates
Politics
Thinking about risk makes us consider
many factors….
VULNERABILITY
Demographics
Technology
Climate Change
Healthcare
Social Welfare
Ageing
Community values
Economic development
Population
Urbanisation
Conflict
Immigration
Extreme climates
Politics
Wicked problem of disaster risk:
- No one clear solution
- Unforeseen outcomes
- Socially complex
- Interdependent & multi-causal
- Involves changing behaviours
It’s hard but we need to do something
Global annual total damage from disasters from
1976 to 1985
Global annual total damage from disasters from
2005 to 2014
US$14billion
US$140billion
The making of a riskier future, GFDRR 2016
1,616,640
People
6,627
People
89,186
People
283,566
People
1,913
People
People impacted from disasters 2004 - 2013
EM-DAT, CRED, University of Louvain, Belgium
An approach for wicked problems:
Scenarios and scenario planning
Exploratory scenarios: What could happen?
Plausible descriptions of how the future might develop, as based on a coherent and
internally consistent set of assumptions (‘‘scenario logic’’) about the key relationships and
driving forces
The most likely future isn’t…
Herman Kahn
Benefits:
1. Unearth assumptions about future, reframe plausibility, not forecast the future
2. Stimulates the imagination and creativity while exploring the future
3. Capacity to deal with inherent uncertainties and value judgements
4. Helps identify broad response categories in an attempt to develop robust policies
An approach for wicked problems:
Scenarios and scenario planning
Challenges:
1. Connection to decision making process
2. Subjective in nature
3. Targeting to policy questions and specific policy options
4. Helps identify broad response categories in an attempt to develop robust policies
Approach:
1. Link directly to policy options by using their effectiveness to frame the future
2. Map out temporal changes in factors of policy effectiveness not generic uncertainties
3. Developed by policy makers and experts with full participatory process
The application: Greater Adelaide,
Australia
Question:
How do we plan to reduce risk into the future for Greater Adelaide from multiple
natural hazards (flood, bushfire, earthquake, coastal inundation)?
Stakeholders identified by SAFECOM - State Mitigation Advisory Group (SMAG)
- Policy processes dictated range of stakeholders to be identified
- SMAG: representatives from most government departments, NGOs, and
response agencies involved in natural hazards in the region.
Policy options
Policy options
Improve building codes
Extend hazards considered in
building code
Specific strengthening of
community buildings
Planned burns
Improved enforcement
mechanisms
Land reclamations
Arson reduction programs
Integration of risk into
school curriculum
Increase community awareness
Building hardening
Provide upgrade assistance to
property owners
Agreement on residual
risk between government
and community
Implementation of
business continuity plans
Framework for lessons
learnt
Establishment of multi-
hazard agencies
Tougher development
legislation
Adaptive policies
encouraged
Development exclusion
zones
Increase access to risk
information to owners
Regulatory emphasis on
risk in planning
Greater power to Hazard
Leaders to question
developments
Funding to support
institutional change
(increased coordination
and planning
Policy options
Improve building codes
Extend hazards
considered in building
code
Specific strengthening of
community buildings
Planned burns
Improved enforcement
mechanisms
Land reclamations
Arson reduction programs
Integration of risk into
school curriculum
Increase community awareness
Building hardening
Provide upgrade assistance to
property owners
Agreement on residual
risk between government
and community
Implementation of
business continuity plans
Framework for lessons
learnt
Establishment of multi-
hazard agencies
Tougher development
legislation
Adaptive policies
encouraged
Development exclusion
zones
Increase access to risk
information to owners
Regulatory emphasis on
risk in planning
Greater power to Hazard
Leaders to question
developments
Funding to support
institutional change
(increased coordination
and planning
Resilience – community led Mitigation – government led
Exploring the Future of Resilience and Mitigation to Better Plan for Disaster Risk Reduction, Graeme Angus RIDDELL
Resilience
• Available resources for action
• Stakeholder understanding and
knowledge of hazard/risk
• Social cohesion
• Efficacious policy
• Infrastructure
Mitigation
• Data and knowledge
• Governance structures
• Holistic policies
• Institutional culture and
perception
• Cost benefit considerations
Timeline development
Silicon Hills
Ignorance of the Lambs
Challenges to mitigation
Cynical Villagers
Appetite for Change
Internet of Risk
Challengestoresilience
Silicon Hills
Ignorance of the Lambs
Challenges to mitigation
Cynical Villagers
Appetite for Change
Internet of Risk
Challengestoresilience
Large immigration to SA from various
global areas of unrest. Increasing
reliance on Federal Government for
funding.
Increasing reliance on the internet for
social and work-related activities
decreases community connectedness
and resilience.
Growing valuation of nature and
stimulation of tech industries see
increase in skills for technology,
innovation and R&D.
Increasing reliance on the internet for
social and work-related activities
decreases community connectedness
and resilience.
Downturn in mining and ageing
population, shift towards nature and
high quality agricultural society.
Silicon Hills (Low Challenges)
Cynical Villagers (High Challenges Mitigation)
Ignorance of the Lambs: High Challenges Resilience
Appetite for Change: Intermediate Challenges
Internet of Risk: High Challenges
Resilience & Mitigation
Scenario drivers
Integrated Modelling & Scenario presentation
All 5 scenarios modelled, considering land use (exposure) changes and risk
profiles for bushfire, coastal inundation, riverine flood and earthquake.
Presented to stakeholders, questioned on representation, extremity and
plausibility, and internal consistency
Scenario modelling
RESIDENTIAL LAND USE CHANGES 2013 -
2050
Cynical Villagers
High challenges mitigation
Ignorance of the Lambs
High challenges resilience
Silicon Hills
Low challenges
Scenarios
Cynical Villagers
High challenges mitigation
Ignorance of the Lambs
High challenges resilience
Silicon Hills
Low challenges
RURAL RESIDENTIAL LAND USE CHANGES 2013 -
2050
Scenarios
Cynical Villagers
High challenges mitigation
Ignorance of the Lambs
High challenges resilience
Silicon Hills
Low challenges
COMMERCIAL LAND USE CHANGES 2013 -
2050
Scenarios
Cynical Villagers
High challenges mitigation
Ignorance of the Lambs
High challenges resilience
Silicon Hills
Low challenges
Total Damage ($million)
Value
High : 8.894
Low : 0
$million
CAPITAL DAMAGE 1/500 EVENT RIVERINE FLOOD
2050
Scenarios
Cynical Villagers
High challenges mitigation
Ignorance of the Lambs
High challenges resilience
Silicon Hills
Low challenges
ANNUAL AVERAGE DAMAGE BUSHFIRE 2050
Scenarios
1. Value in applying exploratory scenarios in disaster risk reduction planning
I. Allow decision makers to explore challenges and opportunities
II. Facilitates discussion with a common platform across what can be silo-ed
institutions in emergency management
III. Brings together many factors relevant to risk assessment and allows risk
assessment to be dynamic, capturing the influence of decisions
2. Choice of scenario factors is critical, some are easier than others.
3. Using policy responses as axis seemed to allow an easier connection for policy
and response orientated individuals.
4. Translating and integrating exploratory scenarios and modelling into policy
frameworks still a challenge.
Lessons learnt and next challenges
THANK YOU
GRAEME RIDDELL
graeme.riddell@adelaide.edu.au

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Exploring the Future of Resilience and Mitigation to Better Plan for Disaster Risk Reduction, Graeme Angus RIDDELL

  • 1. EXPLORING THE FUTURE OF RESILIENCE AND MITIGATION TO BETTER PLAN FOR DISASTER RISK REDUCTION Graeme Riddell, Hedwig van Delden, Holger Maier, Aaron Zecchin, & Graeme Dandy
  • 2. Thinking about risk makes us consider many factors…. EXPOSURE HAZARDVULNERABILITY
  • 3. Thinking about risk makes us consider many factors…. EXPOSURE RISK HAZARDVULNERABILITY
  • 4. Thinking about risk makes us consider many factors…. EXPOSURE RISK HAZARDVULNERABILITY Demographics Technology Climate Change Healthcare Social Welfare Ageing Community values Economic development Population Urbanisation Conflict Immigration Extreme climates Politics
  • 5. Thinking about risk makes us consider many factors…. VULNERABILITY Population Urbanisation
  • 6. Thinking about risk makes us consider many factors…. VULNERABILITY Population Urbanisation VULNERABILITY Demographics Technology Climate Change Healthcare Social Welfare Ageing Community values Economic development Conflict Immigration Extreme climates Politics
  • 7. Thinking about risk makes us consider many factors…. VULNERABILITY Demographics Technology Climate Change Healthcare Social Welfare Ageing Community values Economic development Population Urbanisation Conflict Immigration Extreme climates Politics Wicked problem of disaster risk: - No one clear solution - Unforeseen outcomes - Socially complex - Interdependent & multi-causal - Involves changing behaviours
  • 8. It’s hard but we need to do something Global annual total damage from disasters from 1976 to 1985 Global annual total damage from disasters from 2005 to 2014 US$14billion US$140billion The making of a riskier future, GFDRR 2016
  • 9. 1,616,640 People 6,627 People 89,186 People 283,566 People 1,913 People People impacted from disasters 2004 - 2013 EM-DAT, CRED, University of Louvain, Belgium
  • 10. An approach for wicked problems: Scenarios and scenario planning Exploratory scenarios: What could happen? Plausible descriptions of how the future might develop, as based on a coherent and internally consistent set of assumptions (‘‘scenario logic’’) about the key relationships and driving forces The most likely future isn’t… Herman Kahn Benefits: 1. Unearth assumptions about future, reframe plausibility, not forecast the future 2. Stimulates the imagination and creativity while exploring the future 3. Capacity to deal with inherent uncertainties and value judgements 4. Helps identify broad response categories in an attempt to develop robust policies
  • 11. An approach for wicked problems: Scenarios and scenario planning Challenges: 1. Connection to decision making process 2. Subjective in nature 3. Targeting to policy questions and specific policy options 4. Helps identify broad response categories in an attempt to develop robust policies Approach: 1. Link directly to policy options by using their effectiveness to frame the future 2. Map out temporal changes in factors of policy effectiveness not generic uncertainties 3. Developed by policy makers and experts with full participatory process
  • 12. The application: Greater Adelaide, Australia Question: How do we plan to reduce risk into the future for Greater Adelaide from multiple natural hazards (flood, bushfire, earthquake, coastal inundation)? Stakeholders identified by SAFECOM - State Mitigation Advisory Group (SMAG) - Policy processes dictated range of stakeholders to be identified - SMAG: representatives from most government departments, NGOs, and response agencies involved in natural hazards in the region.
  • 14. Policy options Improve building codes Extend hazards considered in building code Specific strengthening of community buildings Planned burns Improved enforcement mechanisms Land reclamations Arson reduction programs Integration of risk into school curriculum Increase community awareness Building hardening Provide upgrade assistance to property owners Agreement on residual risk between government and community Implementation of business continuity plans Framework for lessons learnt Establishment of multi- hazard agencies Tougher development legislation Adaptive policies encouraged Development exclusion zones Increase access to risk information to owners Regulatory emphasis on risk in planning Greater power to Hazard Leaders to question developments Funding to support institutional change (increased coordination and planning
  • 15. Policy options Improve building codes Extend hazards considered in building code Specific strengthening of community buildings Planned burns Improved enforcement mechanisms Land reclamations Arson reduction programs Integration of risk into school curriculum Increase community awareness Building hardening Provide upgrade assistance to property owners Agreement on residual risk between government and community Implementation of business continuity plans Framework for lessons learnt Establishment of multi- hazard agencies Tougher development legislation Adaptive policies encouraged Development exclusion zones Increase access to risk information to owners Regulatory emphasis on risk in planning Greater power to Hazard Leaders to question developments Funding to support institutional change (increased coordination and planning Resilience – community led Mitigation – government led
  • 17. Resilience • Available resources for action • Stakeholder understanding and knowledge of hazard/risk • Social cohesion • Efficacious policy • Infrastructure Mitigation • Data and knowledge • Governance structures • Holistic policies • Institutional culture and perception • Cost benefit considerations
  • 19. Silicon Hills Ignorance of the Lambs Challenges to mitigation Cynical Villagers Appetite for Change Internet of Risk Challengestoresilience
  • 20. Silicon Hills Ignorance of the Lambs Challenges to mitigation Cynical Villagers Appetite for Change Internet of Risk Challengestoresilience Large immigration to SA from various global areas of unrest. Increasing reliance on Federal Government for funding. Increasing reliance on the internet for social and work-related activities decreases community connectedness and resilience. Growing valuation of nature and stimulation of tech industries see increase in skills for technology, innovation and R&D. Increasing reliance on the internet for social and work-related activities decreases community connectedness and resilience. Downturn in mining and ageing population, shift towards nature and high quality agricultural society.
  • 21. Silicon Hills (Low Challenges)
  • 22. Cynical Villagers (High Challenges Mitigation)
  • 23. Ignorance of the Lambs: High Challenges Resilience
  • 24. Appetite for Change: Intermediate Challenges
  • 25. Internet of Risk: High Challenges Resilience & Mitigation
  • 27. Integrated Modelling & Scenario presentation All 5 scenarios modelled, considering land use (exposure) changes and risk profiles for bushfire, coastal inundation, riverine flood and earthquake. Presented to stakeholders, questioned on representation, extremity and plausibility, and internal consistency Scenario modelling
  • 28. RESIDENTIAL LAND USE CHANGES 2013 - 2050 Cynical Villagers High challenges mitigation Ignorance of the Lambs High challenges resilience Silicon Hills Low challenges Scenarios
  • 29. Cynical Villagers High challenges mitigation Ignorance of the Lambs High challenges resilience Silicon Hills Low challenges RURAL RESIDENTIAL LAND USE CHANGES 2013 - 2050 Scenarios
  • 30. Cynical Villagers High challenges mitigation Ignorance of the Lambs High challenges resilience Silicon Hills Low challenges COMMERCIAL LAND USE CHANGES 2013 - 2050 Scenarios
  • 31. Cynical Villagers High challenges mitigation Ignorance of the Lambs High challenges resilience Silicon Hills Low challenges Total Damage ($million) Value High : 8.894 Low : 0 $million CAPITAL DAMAGE 1/500 EVENT RIVERINE FLOOD 2050 Scenarios
  • 32. Cynical Villagers High challenges mitigation Ignorance of the Lambs High challenges resilience Silicon Hills Low challenges ANNUAL AVERAGE DAMAGE BUSHFIRE 2050 Scenarios
  • 33. 1. Value in applying exploratory scenarios in disaster risk reduction planning I. Allow decision makers to explore challenges and opportunities II. Facilitates discussion with a common platform across what can be silo-ed institutions in emergency management III. Brings together many factors relevant to risk assessment and allows risk assessment to be dynamic, capturing the influence of decisions 2. Choice of scenario factors is critical, some are easier than others. 3. Using policy responses as axis seemed to allow an easier connection for policy and response orientated individuals. 4. Translating and integrating exploratory scenarios and modelling into policy frameworks still a challenge. Lessons learnt and next challenges

Editor's Notes

  1. Also comment on that these generally hit low and medium development regions more than the high and very high meaning the impacts can be even more severe at a community level.