6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 Integrative Risk Management - Towards Resilient Cities. 28 August - 01 September 2016 in Davos, Switzerland
Study on the Impact of Economic Growth on Meteorological Disaster Losses in C...
Exploring the Future of Resilience and Mitigation to Better Plan for Disaster Risk Reduction, Graeme Angus RIDDELL
1. EXPLORING THE FUTURE OF RESILIENCE AND
MITIGATION TO BETTER PLAN FOR DISASTER RISK
REDUCTION
Graeme Riddell, Hedwig van Delden, Holger Maier, Aaron Zecchin, & Graeme Dandy
2. Thinking about risk makes us consider
many factors….
EXPOSURE
HAZARDVULNERABILITY
3. Thinking about risk makes us consider
many factors….
EXPOSURE
RISK
HAZARDVULNERABILITY
4. Thinking about risk makes us consider
many factors….
EXPOSURE
RISK
HAZARDVULNERABILITY
Demographics
Technology
Climate Change
Healthcare
Social Welfare
Ageing
Community values
Economic development Population
Urbanisation
Conflict
Immigration
Extreme climates
Politics
5. Thinking about risk makes us consider
many factors….
VULNERABILITY
Population
Urbanisation
6. Thinking about risk makes us consider
many factors….
VULNERABILITY
Population
Urbanisation
VULNERABILITY
Demographics
Technology
Climate Change
Healthcare
Social Welfare
Ageing
Community values
Economic development
Conflict
Immigration
Extreme climates
Politics
7. Thinking about risk makes us consider
many factors….
VULNERABILITY
Demographics
Technology
Climate Change
Healthcare
Social Welfare
Ageing
Community values
Economic development
Population
Urbanisation
Conflict
Immigration
Extreme climates
Politics
Wicked problem of disaster risk:
- No one clear solution
- Unforeseen outcomes
- Socially complex
- Interdependent & multi-causal
- Involves changing behaviours
8. It’s hard but we need to do something
Global annual total damage from disasters from
1976 to 1985
Global annual total damage from disasters from
2005 to 2014
US$14billion
US$140billion
The making of a riskier future, GFDRR 2016
10. An approach for wicked problems:
Scenarios and scenario planning
Exploratory scenarios: What could happen?
Plausible descriptions of how the future might develop, as based on a coherent and
internally consistent set of assumptions (‘‘scenario logic’’) about the key relationships and
driving forces
The most likely future isn’t…
Herman Kahn
Benefits:
1. Unearth assumptions about future, reframe plausibility, not forecast the future
2. Stimulates the imagination and creativity while exploring the future
3. Capacity to deal with inherent uncertainties and value judgements
4. Helps identify broad response categories in an attempt to develop robust policies
11. An approach for wicked problems:
Scenarios and scenario planning
Challenges:
1. Connection to decision making process
2. Subjective in nature
3. Targeting to policy questions and specific policy options
4. Helps identify broad response categories in an attempt to develop robust policies
Approach:
1. Link directly to policy options by using their effectiveness to frame the future
2. Map out temporal changes in factors of policy effectiveness not generic uncertainties
3. Developed by policy makers and experts with full participatory process
12. The application: Greater Adelaide,
Australia
Question:
How do we plan to reduce risk into the future for Greater Adelaide from multiple
natural hazards (flood, bushfire, earthquake, coastal inundation)?
Stakeholders identified by SAFECOM - State Mitigation Advisory Group (SMAG)
- Policy processes dictated range of stakeholders to be identified
- SMAG: representatives from most government departments, NGOs, and
response agencies involved in natural hazards in the region.
14. Policy options
Improve building codes
Extend hazards considered in
building code
Specific strengthening of
community buildings
Planned burns
Improved enforcement
mechanisms
Land reclamations
Arson reduction programs
Integration of risk into
school curriculum
Increase community awareness
Building hardening
Provide upgrade assistance to
property owners
Agreement on residual
risk between government
and community
Implementation of
business continuity plans
Framework for lessons
learnt
Establishment of multi-
hazard agencies
Tougher development
legislation
Adaptive policies
encouraged
Development exclusion
zones
Increase access to risk
information to owners
Regulatory emphasis on
risk in planning
Greater power to Hazard
Leaders to question
developments
Funding to support
institutional change
(increased coordination
and planning
15. Policy options
Improve building codes
Extend hazards
considered in building
code
Specific strengthening of
community buildings
Planned burns
Improved enforcement
mechanisms
Land reclamations
Arson reduction programs
Integration of risk into
school curriculum
Increase community awareness
Building hardening
Provide upgrade assistance to
property owners
Agreement on residual
risk between government
and community
Implementation of
business continuity plans
Framework for lessons
learnt
Establishment of multi-
hazard agencies
Tougher development
legislation
Adaptive policies
encouraged
Development exclusion
zones
Increase access to risk
information to owners
Regulatory emphasis on
risk in planning
Greater power to Hazard
Leaders to question
developments
Funding to support
institutional change
(increased coordination
and planning
Resilience – community led Mitigation – government led
17. Resilience
• Available resources for action
• Stakeholder understanding and
knowledge of hazard/risk
• Social cohesion
• Efficacious policy
• Infrastructure
Mitigation
• Data and knowledge
• Governance structures
• Holistic policies
• Institutional culture and
perception
• Cost benefit considerations
19. Silicon Hills
Ignorance of the Lambs
Challenges to mitigation
Cynical Villagers
Appetite for Change
Internet of Risk
Challengestoresilience
20. Silicon Hills
Ignorance of the Lambs
Challenges to mitigation
Cynical Villagers
Appetite for Change
Internet of Risk
Challengestoresilience
Large immigration to SA from various
global areas of unrest. Increasing
reliance on Federal Government for
funding.
Increasing reliance on the internet for
social and work-related activities
decreases community connectedness
and resilience.
Growing valuation of nature and
stimulation of tech industries see
increase in skills for technology,
innovation and R&D.
Increasing reliance on the internet for
social and work-related activities
decreases community connectedness
and resilience.
Downturn in mining and ageing
population, shift towards nature and
high quality agricultural society.
27. Integrated Modelling & Scenario presentation
All 5 scenarios modelled, considering land use (exposure) changes and risk
profiles for bushfire, coastal inundation, riverine flood and earthquake.
Presented to stakeholders, questioned on representation, extremity and
plausibility, and internal consistency
Scenario modelling
28. RESIDENTIAL LAND USE CHANGES 2013 -
2050
Cynical Villagers
High challenges mitigation
Ignorance of the Lambs
High challenges resilience
Silicon Hills
Low challenges
Scenarios
29. Cynical Villagers
High challenges mitigation
Ignorance of the Lambs
High challenges resilience
Silicon Hills
Low challenges
RURAL RESIDENTIAL LAND USE CHANGES 2013 -
2050
Scenarios
30. Cynical Villagers
High challenges mitigation
Ignorance of the Lambs
High challenges resilience
Silicon Hills
Low challenges
COMMERCIAL LAND USE CHANGES 2013 -
2050
Scenarios
31. Cynical Villagers
High challenges mitigation
Ignorance of the Lambs
High challenges resilience
Silicon Hills
Low challenges
Total Damage ($million)
Value
High : 8.894
Low : 0
$million
CAPITAL DAMAGE 1/500 EVENT RIVERINE FLOOD
2050
Scenarios
32. Cynical Villagers
High challenges mitigation
Ignorance of the Lambs
High challenges resilience
Silicon Hills
Low challenges
ANNUAL AVERAGE DAMAGE BUSHFIRE 2050
Scenarios
33. 1. Value in applying exploratory scenarios in disaster risk reduction planning
I. Allow decision makers to explore challenges and opportunities
II. Facilitates discussion with a common platform across what can be silo-ed
institutions in emergency management
III. Brings together many factors relevant to risk assessment and allows risk
assessment to be dynamic, capturing the influence of decisions
2. Choice of scenario factors is critical, some are easier than others.
3. Using policy responses as axis seemed to allow an easier connection for policy
and response orientated individuals.
4. Translating and integrating exploratory scenarios and modelling into policy
frameworks still a challenge.
Lessons learnt and next challenges
Also comment on that these generally hit low and medium development regions more than the high and very high meaning the impacts can be even more severe at a community level.