Moving your turtles to the margin 
Dr Carl A. Gibson 
Country Fire Authority Australia & 
La Trobe University 
Director Ri...
Origin of Margin of Maneuver
Normal Work? 
Workers make 
operational 
trade-offs. 
Normalization 
of risk. 
WE can’t agree 
about risk 
values!
Risk Perception 
• Risk is Conceived 
Perceived, 
Communicated 
very differently. 
• What is normal for 
one person is qui...
Perception of Safety 
• Safe operation, in reality, is a complicated and messy 
business. 
• We respond to the feeling of ...
9 
Resilience 
Individual 
Organizational 
Tactical 
Strategic 
Resilience 
Learning
10 
Resilience 
Individual 
Organizational 
Strategic 
Resilience 
Learning 
Tactical 
Tactical 
Margin
Problem 
Challenge of 
understanding 
Challenge of 
recognition 
Challenge of 
communication 
Challenge of 
action
Challenge of 
understanding 
Challenge of 
communication 
Challenge of 
action Problem 
Understand 
implications 
Challeng...
Social & cognitive network 
Easily applied 
Conceptualise 
Intuitive 
NXew 
What we already do
14 
Margin of Manoeuvre
15 
Margin of Manoeuvre 
Uncertainty 
Operating 
conditions
16 
Margin of Manoeuvre 
Volatility 
Uncertainty 
Operating 
conditions
Margin of Manoeuvre 
Uncertainty 
Operating 
conditions 
Volatility Ambiguity
18 
Margin of Manoeuvre 
Uncertainty 
Dysfunctional 
relationships 
Operating 
conditions 
Volatility Ambiguity
Margin of Manoeuvre 
Shared 
understanding
20 
Margin of Manoeuvre 
Shared 
understanding 
Emergent 
leadership
Margin of Manoeuvre 
Shared 
sensemaking 
Emergent 
leadership 
Innovation 
Adaptive capacity 
Relationships
Not just a theory 
In practice today 
Improving performance 
and saving lives
Dynamics of Influence & Change 
24
Questions/Discussion
26 
Resilience 
Individual 
Organizational 
Tactical 
Strategic 
Resilience 
Learning
Things that never happened before – 
happen all the time. Lee Clarke
28 
Resilience 
Individual 
Organizational 
Tactical 
Strategic 
Resilience 
Learning
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5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice 24-28 August 2014 in Davos, Switzerland

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  • What we will discuss
  • What we will discuss
  • In the ways that you discovered – margin was in creased through preparation, in real time and through reflection – or learning
  • In the ways that you discovered – margin was in creased through preparation, in real time and through reflection – or learning
  • davos3

    1. 1. Moving your turtles to the margin Dr Carl A. Gibson Country Fire Authority Australia & La Trobe University Director Risk Management Ivan Pupulidy PhDc US Forest Service Director Office of Learning
    2. 2. Origin of Margin of Maneuver
    3. 3. Normal Work? Workers make operational trade-offs. Normalization of risk. WE can’t agree about risk values!
    4. 4. Risk Perception • Risk is Conceived Perceived, Communicated very differently. • What is normal for one person is quite different for another.
    5. 5. Perception of Safety • Safe operation, in reality, is a complicated and messy business. • We respond to the feeling of safety in mysterious ways.
    6. 6. 9 Resilience Individual Organizational Tactical Strategic Resilience Learning
    7. 7. 10 Resilience Individual Organizational Strategic Resilience Learning Tactical Tactical Margin
    8. 8. Problem Challenge of understanding Challenge of recognition Challenge of communication Challenge of action
    9. 9. Challenge of understanding Challenge of communication Challenge of action Problem Understand implications Challenge of recognition Share information Action & experiment Recognise change in conditions Innovation
    10. 10. Social & cognitive network Easily applied Conceptualise Intuitive NXew What we already do
    11. 11. 14 Margin of Manoeuvre
    12. 12. 15 Margin of Manoeuvre Uncertainty Operating conditions
    13. 13. 16 Margin of Manoeuvre Volatility Uncertainty Operating conditions
    14. 14. Margin of Manoeuvre Uncertainty Operating conditions Volatility Ambiguity
    15. 15. 18 Margin of Manoeuvre Uncertainty Dysfunctional relationships Operating conditions Volatility Ambiguity
    16. 16. Margin of Manoeuvre Shared understanding
    17. 17. 20 Margin of Manoeuvre Shared understanding Emergent leadership
    18. 18. Margin of Manoeuvre Shared sensemaking Emergent leadership Innovation Adaptive capacity Relationships
    19. 19. Not just a theory In practice today Improving performance and saving lives
    20. 20. Dynamics of Influence & Change 24
    21. 21. Questions/Discussion
    22. 22. 26 Resilience Individual Organizational Tactical Strategic Resilience Learning
    23. 23. Things that never happened before – happen all the time. Lee Clarke
    24. 24. 28 Resilience Individual Organizational Tactical Strategic Resilience Learning

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