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Carla Ximena SALINAS "Numerical model to assess the impact of the strategies to mitigate desertification"

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Carla Ximena SALINAS "Numerical model to assess the impact of the strategies to mitigate desertification"

  1. 1. NUMERICAL MODEL FOR SOCIAL, ECONOMICAND ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT OF SUPPORT MECHANISMS TO COMBAT DESERTIFICATION IN CHILE. PhD Carla Ximena Salinas Silva
  2. 2. INTRODUCTION
  3. 3. INTRODUCTION THE DESERTIFICATION IN CHILEIn Chile the desertification process covers 48,334,300hectares, which represents two thirds of the country.Thus, it is considered the largest environmental problem,generating a significant environmental and socioeconomicimpact which directly affects more than 1.3 million people, andin the municipalities most severely affected, poverty reaches60.2% of the population.According to the latest agricultural census, the 78% ofproductive land in Chile, showed degrees of erosion, rangingfrom moderate to very severe (CONAF 1999), and in theperiod 1997-2007, the country has lost 32% of fertile land (INE2009).
  4. 4. INTRODUCTION EVALUATION OF THE AGRICULTURE, LIVESTOCK AND FORESTRY DEVELOPMENT LAWS TO COMBAT DESERTIFICATION AND DROUGHT IN NORTHERN CHILEThe National Forestry Commission (CONAF), through its DecreeLaw No. 701 on forestry development includes the reforestation oflands for the purpose of encouraging the recovery of degraded forestlands.The Agriculture and Livestock Service (SAG) through SupremeDecree No. 202 incorporates the recovery of soils in agricultural landuse through conservation, reclamation and rehabilitation.Similarly Law No. 18,450 of the National Irrigation Commission(CNR) aims to increase the irrigated areas of the country byencouraging the irrigation of dry land, and incorporating new land tofarm.
  5. 5. INTRODUCTION OBJECTIVES• Objectives: – Developing an evaluation methodology based on descriptive and predictive capacity of territorial and socio-economic indicators. – Simulation of the state of desertification in the future, in different economic scenarios on a model for the proposition of possible improvements. – Evaluation of the impact of the combat against desertification and drought in the agriculture, livestock and forestry sector in Chile.
  6. 6. STUDY AREA•This work takes place in north-central Chile, between latitudes 17º30S and 36º 33S.•The areas between these latitudesare the administrative Regionsaffected to greater erosion anddrought in the country.•The total surface area of study is37,935,970 ha, representing 50.2%of the country.
  7. 7. STATE OF THE ARTSURFACE AFFECTED BY DESERTIFICATION The regions most affected by desertification are the IV, II, and XV V. This Regions have more than 50% of their territory in severe I conditions of desertification. II ​ These values are opposed to the Regions VI and VII which present the greatest part of its territory III ​ with values of moderate and lighter desertification respectively. IV V XIII VI VII
  8. 8. MATERIAL AND METHODS•Study indicators•Model development
  9. 9. MATERIAL AND METHODS STUDY INDICATORSThe selection of the territorial and socioeconomic variables was performed byreference to the indicators recognized by the United Nations Convention toCombat Desertification and Drought (UNCCD).The selected territorial indicators characterized the study area from ananalytical point of view. An important criterion for the selection of theseindicators lies in the fact that they relate directly to human activities on theterritory. The descriptors that are independent of human activity were notdirectly considered in this study.The selected socioeconomic indicators were related to the productionstructure of the territory under study, rates of poverty and humandevelopment, infrastructure and investments made by agriculture, forestry andlivestock promotion institutions.
  10. 10. MATERIAL AND METHODS STUDY INDICATORS Socioeconomic indicators Territorial indicators CNRs total investment in U.S. $ Surface intervened by the CNR SAGs total investment in U.S. $ Technical irrigation surface by the CNR CONAF´s total investment in U.S. $ New irrigation surface CNR Total population Surface intervened by the SAG Poor population Surface intervened by CONAF Non-poor population Surface in severe condition of desertification Number of vehicles Surface in moderate condition of desertification Employed population Surface in light condition of desertification Unemployed population Surface not affected by desertification Number of farms Surface without information about the status of Number of cattle heads desertification Forest fires Surface occupied by annual crops Overgrazing (number of goat and sheep) Surface occupied by sown pastures Population employed in agriculture Surface occupied by fallows Water reservoir capacity (m3) Surface occupied by improved grasslands Surface occupied by rangeland Surface occupied by forest plantations Surface occupied by native forests Surface occupied by infrastructure Surface occupied by barren landCNR: National Irrigation Comission CONAF: Forest Service SAG: Livestock & Forest Service
  11. 11. MATERIAL AND METHODS: APPLIED MODEL DEVELOPMENTThe data were homogenized in relation to the TERRITORIAL SOCIOECONOMIC ​total surface of the region to which they INDICATORS INDICATORSbelonged, and then were subjected to logarithmictransformation (log (α +1)).In order to determine the main territorial a) Ycomponents of the desertification a PCA to theterritorial variables and an ordination of the Xregions in two axes (x, y) were carried out.A relationship between the type of land and thesocioeconomic structure in the study area isestablished using multiple regression analysis.Independent variables were socioeconomic b) Y = a + b·X 1 + b 2·X 2 +b 3·X3 +……+b n ·Xndescriptors and the dependent variablescorresponded to the territorial variables.This equation was used to simulate a scenario XVextrapolating a situation to help reversing the VII VIdesertification process and another scenario V IVextrapolating a “no action " situation in which III c) IIthere were no bonuses given by the ALF I 0,0 0,1 0,1 0,2 0,2 0,3 0,3 0,4promotion agencies.
  12. 12. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION• Applied model development
  13. 13. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION ASSESSMENT OF THE SOCIO-ECONOMIC AND TERRITORIAL STRUCTURE INVOLVED IN DESERTIFICATION PROCESSES SUMMARY OF THE MODEL: it can be used as amethodology for the evaluation of development policies in the fight against desertification and drought.
  14. 14. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION ASSESSMENT OF THE SOCIO-ECONOMIC AND TERRITORIAL STRUCTURE INVOLVED IN DESERTIFICATION PROCESSES Desertification gradient obtained from the PCA for the Component 1. Component 1 (62,03 % of the variance) Negative end - Positive end +Severe desertification (-0,55) New irrigation surface CNR (0,99)Moderate desertification (-0,42) Technical irrigation surface by the CNR (0,98) Surface occupied by improved grasslands (0,93) Surface occupied by annual crops (0,93) Surface occupied by forest plantations (0,92) Surface intervened by the SAG (0,92) Surface occupied by native forests (0,90) Surface intervened by CONAF (0,90) Surface intervened by the CNR (0,864) Surface occupied by sown pastures (0,864)The gradient indicates the importance of the three development agencies,CONAF, SAG and CNR, in the fight against desertification and drought.
  15. 15. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION ASSESSMENT OF THE SOCIO-ECONOMIC AND TERRITORIAL STRUCTURE INVOLVED IN DESERTIFICATION PROCESSES Relation between desertification and the socioeconomic indicatorsDesertification = 0.269 – 0.021 CONAF´s subsidies - 0.08 CNR´ssubsidies – 0.632 SAG´s subsidies + 1.331 Total population – 0.218Number of farms +3.386 Grazing – 0.008 water reservoir capacity
  16. 16. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION ASSESSMENT OF THE SOCIO-ECONOMIC AND TERRITORIAL STRUCTURE INVOLVED IN DESERTIFICATION PROCESSES Simulation 1. Baseline and ACTION simulation XV VII VI REGIONS V IV III II I -0,3 -0,2 -0,1 0,0 0,1 0,2 0,3 0,4 DESERTIFICATION BASELINE ACTION SIMULATION ACCION INSTITUCUINES DE FOMENTO CNR INVEST. SAG INVEST. TOTAL RESERVOIR REGION CONAF INV. US$ FARM SURFACE GRAZING US$ US$ POPULATION CAPACITYI 25% 25% 25% 20% 1,10% 25% -50%II 25% 25% 25% 20% 1,10% 25% -50%III 50% 50% 50% 20% 1,10% 25% -50%IV 50% 50% 50% 20% 1,10% 50% -50%V 50% 50% 50% 20% 1,10% 25% -50%VI 15% 15% 15% 20% 1,10% 25% -50%VII 15% 15% 15% 20% 1,10% 25% -50%XV 25% 50% 0% 20% 1,10% 25% -50%
  17. 17. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION ASSESSMENT OF THE SOCIO-ECONOMIC AND TERRITORIAL STRUCTURE INVOLVED IN DESERTIFICATION PROCESSES Simulation 2. Baseline and NO ACTION simulation XV VII VI REGIONS V IV III II I -0,2 -0,1 0,0 0,1 0,2 0,3 0,4 0,5 0,6 0,7 DESERTIFICATION BASELINE NO ACTION SIMULATION NO ACCION INSTITUCUINES DE FOMENTO CNR INVEST. SAG INVEST. TOTAL RESERVOIR REGION CONAF INV. US$ FARM SURFACE GRAZING US$ US$ POPULATION CAPACITYI 0% 0% 0% 20% 1,10% 25% -50%II 0% 0% 0% 20% 1,10% 25% -50%III 0% 0% 0% 20% 1,10% 25% -50%IV 0% 0% 0% 20% 1,10% 50% -50%V 0% 0% 0% 20% 1,10% 25% -50%VI 0% 0% 0% 20% 1,10% 25% -50%VII 0% 0% 0% 20% 1,10% 25% -50%XV 0% 0% 0% 20% 1,10% 25% -50%
  18. 18. CONCLUSIONS
  19. 19. CONCLUSIONS• The mitigation strategies in the fight against desertification and drought in Chile are effective and the effectiveness varies by region.• The model shows that both the money invested by CONAF, SAG and CNR and the surface intervened by these institutions contribute to combat desertification and drought in Chile.
  20. 20. CONCLUSIONS• The result indicates that the overgrazing is a major cause of desertification in the regions studied. Desertification due to overgrazing is also documented for other areas of the world.• In the absence of subsidies, desertification increase in all regions, even in regions VI and VII, where climatic conditions are more favorable. This indicates the importance of Agriculture, Livestock and Forestry propmotion laws in the fight against desertification.• The model result also shows the reservoirs and successful agent in the fight against desertification and drought, as well as farms.
  21. 21. CONCLUSIONSIn areas affected by desertification and drought thanusual is that ecosystems are not given enough water orfunding. From an economic point of view, this situationleads to inadequate assessment of environmental goodsand services that provide the drylands, which results onimmediate misuse. That is, over use capacity, especiallybecause of the overexplotation of resources in arid,semiarid and dry sub-humid land. Therefore, sustainabledevelopment in desertified areas is to promoteinnovative schemes of economic production withenvironmental and social sound basis.
  22. 22. THANK YOU VERY MUCH MUCHAS GRACIAS

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