André Bationo - Agricultural risks linked to soil, water and climate in Sub-Saharan Africa

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André Bationo - Agricultural risks linked to soil, water and climate in Sub-Saharan Africa

  1. 1. Agricultural risks linked to soil, water and climate in Sub-Saharan Africa Bationo A., Dougbedji F., Kapran I.; Vlek P., Naab J., Zougmore R., Ouattara M., Tabo R., Mando A.,
  2. 2. Contents Introduction Risk: links to inherent low soil fertility and low use of inputs Risk: links to water and climate Risk mitigation Conclusion
  3. 3. The Gloomy Picture Number of Africans living below the poverty line (<USD 1/day) has increased by 50% over the past 15 years 200 million people - over one-third of the population - suffers from hunger The number of undernourished children has increased by 12% over the last 5 years 3
  4. 4. Low Investment by Banks
  5. 5. yield in ton/ha 18 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 66 18 71 18 76 18 81 18 86USA 18 91 18 96 19 01 19 06 19 11 19 16 19SSA 21 19 26 19 31 19 36 19 41 19 46 19 51 19 56 19 61L America 19 66 19 71 19 Growth in yields 76 19 81 19 86 19 91 19 96China 20 01 Low in Africa due to inability of farmers to mitigate risks
  6. 6. Cereal production per capita in SSA 220 200 180Productio (Kg) 160 140 y = -0.6484x + 176.83 R² = 0.3695 120 100 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 Source: FAOSTATS (2010)
  7. 7. Africa is spending 50 billion dollars annually on food importAfrica Population (Billion)
  8. 8. Arable Land and Land in Permanent Crops Per Capita0.480.440.390.350.30 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88
  9. 9. The yield gap and limiting factors Biophysical limitations Potential - Soil fertility yield - Water(Experimentation) - Germplasm -etc Which inputs are lacking? Yield gap Socio economic and policy limitations - Knowledge - Credit Availability - Input/output Market access Actual - Policy, e.t.c yield Why inputs are not used?
  10. 10. The Yield Gap: Some observations fromsub-Saharan Africa 8 7 Zambia 6 TanzaniaGrain yield (t ha ) -1 5 4 3 2 1 0 On-farm On-station Commercial
  11. 11.  Risk: link to inherent low soil fertility and low use of fertilizers
  12. 12. Land degradation  Africa loses equivalent of $4b per year due to soil nutrient mining  An estimated $42b in income are lost and 6 million hectares of productive land threatened every year due to land degradation  Despite about U$ 20b of commercial imports and U$ 2b of food aid, 26% of the people are undernourished  Unsustainable soils for crop production occupy 55%, prime 9.6%, high potential 6.7% and medium and low potential 28.3% 12
  13. 13. Vent de sable
  14. 14. Macronutrient application versus loss in Africa 5.0 4.4 Loss 4.5 AppliedMillion tons per year 4.0 3.5 3.0 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.0 N P K Nutrients
  15. 15. Per Hectare Fertilizer Use by Markets, 2002/03 (kg/ha)Sub-Saharan Africa 8 Eurasia 20 Developing Markets Developed Markets Africa 20 Oceania 59 Transitional Markets World Central America 60 South Africa 61 North Africa 69 West Asia 72 Latin America 78 Eastern Europe 80 South America 84 World 93 North America 98 South Asia 102 Asia 146 Western Europe 175 East Asia 202
  16. 16. Depleted soils reduce payoffs onagricultural investments and ecosystem services• Efficiency of fertilizer and water inputs is reduced• Profitability and returns on labour are reduced• Vegetative cover is reduced• Water quality is reduced• Natural habitats are encroached upon• Above and below ground biodiversity is reduced• Carbon storage is reduced
  17. 17. Risk: Link to water and climate
  18. 18. Global Food Markets ̶ Food Supply Climate vulnerability is already high and will worsen with climate change 20 Rainfall variability & GDP growth 3.5 15 Zimbabwe 1979-1997 2.5 Rainfall variability (%)GDP growth (%) 10 1.5 5 0.5 0 -0.5 -5 -1.5 -10 -2.5 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 GDP growth (annual %) Rainfall 19
  19. 19. Burkina Faso: Relation between rainfall and cereal production 250 800 200 National rainfall index 600 Cereal production Total cereal production - Variation from trend (000 tons) 150 National rainfall index: Variation from trend (mm) 400 100 200 50 0 0 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 -50 -200 -100 -400 -150 -600 -200 -250 -800 Years
  20. 20. Country Rainfall (R Potential R/PET (%) Average Annual - mm) Evapotranspira Temperature tion (PET - mm) (oC)Niamey 580 2046 28 29(Niger)Lome 927 1243 75 28(Togo)Kumasi 2788 1216 229 26(Ghana)Paris 607 538 113 12(France)Sources:(1). Agroclimatologie de lAfrique de lOuest: Le Niger. M. V. K. Sivakumar et al. 1984. ICRISAT Buletin dinformation N o 19(2). Analyse pluviometrique du Togo pour une planification a long term(3). Cartograhie de levapotransporation potentiel: son utilisation pour la determination des besoin en eau dirrigation. A. Darlot et C. Lecharpentier
  21. 21. Low Water Storage Capacity of Most African Soils Soil A: Soil B: 3% Clay and 1% 33% Clay and 5% Organic Matter Organic MatterTypical soil of Sahel Good soil .ECEC (nutrient reserves):  ECEC (nutrient reserves): 1.0 15 Low water storage  Five times more water stored
  22. 22. Africa’s natural legacy: extreme rainfall variability which reduces hydrological security • Endemic droughts & floods: 5%-25% GDP lossesRisk ofrecurrent • High temporal rainfalldrought variability and high spatial soil nutrient heterogeneity
  23. 23. KENYAAnnual rainfall in Kenya 1956 –1982 Variability of 35-40% around the mean Floods 1997-1998 : $2.39 Droughts 1998-2000 : $2.41 billion billion infrastructure losses (16% of GDP) damage
  24. 24. IPCC PROJECTIONS FOR AFRICA CO2 enrichment Temperature rise of 1.5 to 4 ⁰C this century Fewer colder days and nights Frequent hot days and nights Arid areas will get drier, humid areas wetter Increase in droughts and floods Sea-level rise Major desertification and soil salinization in some countries
  25. 25. Risk – mitigation and adaptation
  26. 26. Conclusion Our dream is to have a continent where children do not go to bed on empty stomachs
  27. 27. 3000 Control 2500 Fert + Manure FertilizerGrain yield (kg/ha) 2000 1500 1000 500 0 1960 1970 1980 1990 Sorghum grain yield as affected by mineral and organic fertilizers over time.
  28. 28. Grain yield (GY) and water use efficiency (WUE) for millet in NigerTreatments SADORE DOSSO GY WUE GY WUE- Fertilizers 460 1.25 780 2.04+Fertilizers 1570 4.14 1700 4.25Improved soil fertility enhances the water use efficiency of crops in the Sahel
  29. 29. Signs of Hope:Rehabilitation, Prevention,
  30. 30. Water-nutrient interactions: Zai example Technology Sorghum yield (kg/ha) Only planting pits 200 Pit + cow dung 700 Pit + Mineral fertilizers 1400 Pit + Dung and fertilizers 1700
  31. 31. Field multiplying of hybrid sorghum seeds
  32. 32. P fertilizer use:- SSA: 1.6 kg P/ha- Latin America: 7.9 kg P/ha- Asia: 14.9 kg P/haAbout 80% of SSA soils are short of P
  33. 33. 80% of World ReservesPhosphate rock deposits in SSA

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