Dr. Walter HaysDr. Walter Hays
US Geological Survey (Retired)US Geological Survey (Retired)
Global Alliance for Disaster R...
PreparednessPreparedness Emergency ResponseEmergency Response
ESSENTIAL PILLARSESSENTIAL PILLARS
OF EARTHQUAKE DISASTER RE...
EVERY TIME AN EARTHQUAKE DISASTER OCCURS,
WE HAVE NEW KNOWLEDGE TO ADD TO OUR
“BOOKS OF KNOWLEDGE” ON
EMERGENCY RESPONSE
BREAKING NEWS
August 24, 2014
THE MAGNITUDE 6.0 NAPA
VALLEY, CA EARTHQUAKE
3:20 AM, AUGUST 24, 2014
Strongest in area since the M 6.9
1989 Loma Prieta Q...
LOCATION: AUGUST 24 NAPA
VALLEY EARTHQUAKE
LOCATION: AUGUST 24 NAPA
VALLEY EARTHQUAKE
USGS’ SHAKE MAP: AUGUST 24
NAPA VALLEY EARTHQUAKE
AUGUST 24: EARLY REPORTS OF
SOCIOECONOMIC IMPACTS
• Local damage to buildings and
houses, injuries, but no deaths (yet)
• ...
GLOBAL AN D LOCAL CONTEXTS
PACIFIC RING OF FIRE
Prone to earthquakes and tsunamis
STATES WITH THE MOST EATHQUAKE
ACTIVITY
At least one event every 30 yearsAt least one event every 30 years
0 events in 30 ...
YOUR
COMMUNITY
DATA BASESDATA BASES
AND INFORMATIONAND INFORMATION
HAZARDS:
GROUND SHAKING
GROUND FAILURE
SURFACE FAULTING...
TYPICAL SITUATIONS ENCOUNTERED
DURING EM. RESPONSE
• DAMAGE; DEBRIS
• COLLAPSE
• TRAPPED SURVIVORS
• SEARCH AND RESCUE
CLO...
THE GOAL:THE GOAL:
DEMANDS ONDEMANDS ON
COMMUNITYCOMMUNITY
DEMANDS ONDEMANDS ON
COMMUNITYCOMMUNITY
EARTHQUAKE DISASTEREART...
REALITY:REALITY:
UNANTICIPATEDUNANTICIPATED
DEMANDS ONDEMANDS ON
COMMUNITYCOMMUNITY
UNANTICIPATEDUNANTICIPATED
DEMANDS OND...
REALITY:REALITY:
URGENT DEMANDSURGENT DEMANDS
ON COMMUNITYON COMMUNITY
URGENT DEMANDSURGENT DEMANDS
ON COMMUNITYON COMMUNI...
WHAT IS EARTHQUAKE PREPAREDNESS?WHAT IS EARTHQUAKE PREPAREDNESS?
A state of readiness on individual, urban,
sub-regional, ...
ANTICIPATION IS THE KEY TO
PREPAREDNESS
• Strong ground shaking
• Tsunami wave run up
• Liquefaction
• Landslides
• Afters...
STRONG GROUND SHAKING
GROUND SHAKING CAUSES SOCIAL AND
ECONOMIC LOSSES
AS COMMUNITY PREPAREDNESS
INCREASES,
SO DOES PROTECTION OF BUILDINGS
AND INFRASTRUCTURE
WHAT IS PROTECTION?
A legally mandated state of planning and
verified robustness, strength, and
ductility for important bu...
WHAT IS EMERGENCY RESPONSE
All of the scripted and unscripted heroic
and historic responses during the “race
against time”...
KEY ELEMENTS OF PREPAREDNESS
• Know your seimic activity (i.e.,
Seismicity )
• Know your fault zones
• Know your Vulnerabi...
FAULTS
THE USA’S MOST NOTABLE PLATE BOUNDARY
FAULT ZONE
• San Andreas Fault
• 600 Miles long
• Source of M8
Earthquakes in 1847
a...
THE USA’S OTHER NOTABLE PLATE BOUNDARY
FAULT ZONE
• The Juan De Faca Plate
• Subducting beneath
Wash and Oregon
• Potentia...
ONE OF THE USA’S TWO NOTABLE
INTRA-PLATE FAULT ZONES
• Wasatch Fault, Utah
• 250 Miles long
• Potential source of
M7.0-7.5...
ONE OF THE USA’S TWO NOTABLEONE OF THE USA’S TWO NOTABLE
INTRA-PLATE FAULT ZONESINTRA-PLATE FAULT ZONES
• New Madrid Seism...
Community preparedness and emergency
management response increases as the
community’s capability to anticipate what
will i...
EARTHQUAKE SCENARIOS
A DISASTER RISK REDUCTION
TECHNIQUE FOR USE IN ANY
EARTHQUAKE-PRONE AREA
FACILITATES ADVANCE PLANNING FOR
IMPLEMENTING ”INTELLIGENT EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT” PRACTICES BEFORE PAST MAJOR
EARTHQUAKES R...
HAZARDSHAZARDS
ELEMENTS OF A SCENARIOELEMENTS OF A SCENARIO
EXPOSUREEXPOSURE
VULNERABILITYVULNERABILITY
LOCALOCA
TIONTION
...
INTEGRATED
KNOWLEDGE
• WHAT IS LIKELY TO
HAPPEN
• WHERE
• WHY
• HOW BAD
• WHAT CAN WE DO TO
MINIMIZE THE
SOCIOECONOMIC
IMP...
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
SCENARIO
(developed in 2008)
BASED ON INTEGRATED KNOWLEDGE
FROM MONITORING, RESEACH, AND
POSTEARTHQUAK...
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA: WHAT NEEDS
TO BE ANTICIPATED?
• How likely is a damaging
earthquake to occur?
• Where and when will i...
• The Bay Area is prone to large
earthquakes because it straddles the
boundary between two major
tectonic plates — the Nor...
• Much of the stress release happens
on the San Andreas fault, but some of
it is relieved by the Hayward fault and
other s...
• Because of its location in the densely
populated Bay area of 7 million
people, a Hayward fault quake is likely
to cause ...
DAMAGEDAMAGE
PHYSICAL EFFECTS CAUSE SOCIETALPHYSICAL EFFECTS CAUSE SOCIETAL
IMPACTS AND RISKIMPACTS AND RISK
COLLAPSECOLLA...
WHAT NEEDS TO BE ANTICIPATED
(Continued)?
• What kinds of buildings are at
risk?
• What kinds of basic, essential,
and cri...
• Potentially affecting 5 million people, a
Hayward fault quake damages homes,
schools, senior centers, hospitals,
busines...
WHAT NEEDS TO BE ANTICIPATED
(Continued)?
• What are the social
vulnerabilities?
• What is the likely damage
distribution?...
• Damage will be extensive to
buildings and infrastructure.
•The region's transportation
infrastructure and water delivery...
• A M7.0 earthquake on the Hayward
fault will cause an estimated $210
billion dollars in damage.
DAMAGE: AUGUST 24 NAPA
VALLEY EARTHQUAKE
DAMAGE TO HIGHWAY 12: AUGUST
24 NAPA VALLEY EARTHQUAKE
DAMAGE TO HIGHWAY 12: AUGUST
24 NAPA VALLEY EARTHQUAKE
CONCLUSION
EVERY TIME AN EARTHQUAKE DISASTER
OCCURS, WE HAVE NEW KNOWLEDGE TO ADD
TO OUR “BOOKS OF KNOWLEDGE”
ON ANTICIPAT...
2014 Breaking News 2 Earthquake Presentation - Hays AUGUST 2014
2014 Breaking News 2 Earthquake Presentation - Hays AUGUST 2014
2014 Breaking News 2 Earthquake Presentation - Hays AUGUST 2014
2014 Breaking News 2 Earthquake Presentation - Hays AUGUST 2014
2014 Breaking News 2 Earthquake Presentation - Hays AUGUST 2014
2014 Breaking News 2 Earthquake Presentation - Hays AUGUST 2014
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2014 Breaking News 2 Earthquake Presentation - Hays AUGUST 2014

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5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice 24-28 August 2014 in Davos, Switzerland

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2014 Breaking News 2 Earthquake Presentation - Hays AUGUST 2014

  1. 1. Dr. Walter HaysDr. Walter Hays US Geological Survey (Retired)US Geological Survey (Retired) Global Alliance for Disaster ReductionGlobal Alliance for Disaster Reduction
  2. 2. PreparednessPreparedness Emergency ResponseEmergency Response ESSENTIAL PILLARSESSENTIAL PILLARS OF EARTHQUAKE DISASTER RESILIENCEOF EARTHQUAKE DISASTER RESILIENCE ESSENTIAL PILLARSESSENTIAL PILLARS OF EARTHQUAKE DISASTER RESILIENCEOF EARTHQUAKE DISASTER RESILIENCE
  3. 3. EVERY TIME AN EARTHQUAKE DISASTER OCCURS, WE HAVE NEW KNOWLEDGE TO ADD TO OUR “BOOKS OF KNOWLEDGE” ON EMERGENCY RESPONSE
  4. 4. BREAKING NEWS August 24, 2014
  5. 5. THE MAGNITUDE 6.0 NAPA VALLEY, CA EARTHQUAKE 3:20 AM, AUGUST 24, 2014 Strongest in area since the M 6.9 1989 Loma Prieta Quake, BUT about 1/30th the energy release
  6. 6. LOCATION: AUGUST 24 NAPA VALLEY EARTHQUAKE
  7. 7. LOCATION: AUGUST 24 NAPA VALLEY EARTHQUAKE
  8. 8. USGS’ SHAKE MAP: AUGUST 24 NAPA VALLEY EARTHQUAKE
  9. 9. AUGUST 24: EARLY REPORTS OF SOCIOECONOMIC IMPACTS • Local damage to buildings and houses, injuries, but no deaths (yet) • Damage to contents • Loss of Power • Damage to Highway 12 • Local fires • Aftershocks
  10. 10. GLOBAL AN D LOCAL CONTEXTS
  11. 11. PACIFIC RING OF FIRE Prone to earthquakes and tsunamis
  12. 12. STATES WITH THE MOST EATHQUAKE ACTIVITY At least one event every 30 yearsAt least one event every 30 years 0 events in 30 years0 events in 30 years
  13. 13. YOUR COMMUNITY DATA BASESDATA BASES AND INFORMATIONAND INFORMATION HAZARDS: GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN UP AFTERSHOCKS RISK BOOKS OFBOOKS OF KNOWLEDGEKNOWLEDGE • MONITORING • HAZARD MAPS • INVENTORY • VULNERABILITY • LOCATION
  14. 14. TYPICAL SITUATIONS ENCOUNTERED DURING EM. RESPONSE • DAMAGE; DEBRIS • COLLAPSE • TRAPPED SURVIVORS • SEARCH AND RESCUE CLOCK • FIRES • INUNDATION • EVACUATION CENTERS • EM. MEDICAL • MASS CARE • HAZ MAT RELEASE • INJURIES • DEATHS
  15. 15. THE GOAL:THE GOAL: DEMANDS ONDEMANDS ON COMMUNITYCOMMUNITY DEMANDS ONDEMANDS ON COMMUNITYCOMMUNITY EARTHQUAKE DISASTEREARTHQUAKE DISASTER RESILIENCE:RESILIENCE: CAPABILITIES OFCAPABILITIES OF COMMUNITYCOMMUNITY CAPABILITIES OFCAPABILITIES OF COMMUNITYCOMMUNITY
  16. 16. REALITY:REALITY: UNANTICIPATEDUNANTICIPATED DEMANDS ONDEMANDS ON COMMUNITYCOMMUNITY UNANTICIPATEDUNANTICIPATED DEMANDS ONDEMANDS ON COMMUNITYCOMMUNITY LACK OF EARTHQUAKELACK OF EARTHQUAKE PREPAREDNESSPREPAREDNESS INSUFFICIENTINSUFFICIENT PREPAREDNESS OFPREPAREDNESS OF COMMUNITYCOMMUNITY INSUFFICIENTINSUFFICIENT PREPAREDNESS OFPREPAREDNESS OF COMMUNITYCOMMUNITY
  17. 17. REALITY:REALITY: URGENT DEMANDSURGENT DEMANDS ON COMMUNITYON COMMUNITY URGENT DEMANDSURGENT DEMANDS ON COMMUNITYON COMMUNITY LACK OF EMERGENCYLACK OF EMERGENCY RESPONSE CAPABILITYRESPONSE CAPABILITY INSUFFICIENTINSUFFICIENT CAPABILITY TOCAPABILITY TO RESPOND TORESPOND TO DEMANDS ONDEMANDS ON COMMUNITYCOMMUNITY INSUFFICIENTINSUFFICIENT CAPABILITY TOCAPABILITY TO RESPOND TORESPOND TO DEMANDS ONDEMANDS ON COMMUNITYCOMMUNITY
  18. 18. WHAT IS EARTHQUAKE PREPAREDNESS?WHAT IS EARTHQUAKE PREPAREDNESS? A state of readiness on individual, urban, sub-regional, and national scales that is sufficient to keep the expected and unexpected effects of an earthquake from causing a disaster
  19. 19. ANTICIPATION IS THE KEY TO PREPAREDNESS • Strong ground shaking • Tsunami wave run up • Liquefaction • Landslides • Aftershocks • Vulnerabilities
  20. 20. STRONG GROUND SHAKING
  21. 21. GROUND SHAKING CAUSES SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC LOSSES
  22. 22. AS COMMUNITY PREPAREDNESS INCREASES, SO DOES PROTECTION OF BUILDINGS AND INFRASTRUCTURE
  23. 23. WHAT IS PROTECTION? A legally mandated state of planning and verified robustness, strength, and ductility for important buildings and essential - critical infrastructure to prevent loss of function
  24. 24. WHAT IS EMERGENCY RESPONSE All of the scripted and unscripted heroic and historic responses during the “race against time” after a quake to save lives and protect property
  25. 25. KEY ELEMENTS OF PREPAREDNESS • Know your seimic activity (i.e., Seismicity ) • Know your fault zones • Know your Vulnerabilites
  26. 26. FAULTS
  27. 27. THE USA’S MOST NOTABLE PLATE BOUNDARY FAULT ZONE • San Andreas Fault • 600 Miles long • Source of M8 Earthquakes in 1847 and 1906
  28. 28. THE USA’S OTHER NOTABLE PLATE BOUNDARY FAULT ZONE • The Juan De Faca Plate • Subducting beneath Wash and Oregon • Potential for M9.0
  29. 29. ONE OF THE USA’S TWO NOTABLE INTRA-PLATE FAULT ZONES • Wasatch Fault, Utah • 250 Miles long • Potential source of M7.0-7.5 earthquake
  30. 30. ONE OF THE USA’S TWO NOTABLEONE OF THE USA’S TWO NOTABLE INTRA-PLATE FAULT ZONESINTRA-PLATE FAULT ZONES • New Madrid SeismicNew Madrid Seismic ZoneZone • Source of four (4)Source of four (4) M* earthquakes inM* earthquakes in 1811--18121811--1812
  31. 31. Community preparedness and emergency management response increases as the community’s capability to anticipate what will increases
  32. 32. EARTHQUAKE SCENARIOS A DISASTER RISK REDUCTION TECHNIQUE FOR USE IN ANY EARTHQUAKE-PRONE AREA
  33. 33. FACILITATES ADVANCE PLANNING FOR IMPLEMENTING ”INTELLIGENT EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT” PRACTICES BEFORE PAST MAJOR EARTHQUAKES RECUR AND READINESS WHEN THEY DO Source: US Geological Survey and many public-private sector partners
  34. 34. HAZARDSHAZARDS ELEMENTS OF A SCENARIOELEMENTS OF A SCENARIO EXPOSUREEXPOSURE VULNERABILITYVULNERABILITY LOCALOCA TIONTION RISKRISK
  35. 35. INTEGRATED KNOWLEDGE • WHAT IS LIKELY TO HAPPEN • WHERE • WHY • HOW BAD • WHAT CAN WE DO TO MINIMIZE THE SOCIOECONOMIC IMPACTS INTEGRATED KNOWLEDGE • WHAT IS LIKELY TO HAPPEN • WHERE • WHY • HOW BAD • WHAT CAN WE DO TO MINIMIZE THE SOCIOECONOMIC IMPACTS EARTHQUAKE SCENARIO EARTHQUAKE SCENARIO EARTHQUAKE RISK REDUCTION POSTDISASTER INVESTIGATIONS POSTDISASTER INVESTIGATIONS MONITORING AND RESEARCH MONITORING AND RESEARCH
  36. 36. NORTHERN CALIFORNIA SCENARIO (developed in 2008) BASED ON INTEGRATED KNOWLEDGE FROM MONITORING, RESEACH, AND POSTEARTHQUAKE STUDIES SINCE APRIL 1906
  37. 37. NORTHERN CALIFORNIA: WHAT NEEDS TO BE ANTICIPATED? • How likely is a damaging earthquake to occur? • Where and when will it occur? • How big will it be? • How strong will its potential disaster agents be?
  38. 38. • The Bay Area is prone to large earthquakes because it straddles the boundary between two major tectonic plates — the North American and Pacific plates.
  39. 39. • Much of the stress release happens on the San Andreas fault, but some of it is relieved by the Hayward fault and other smaller parallel faults.
  40. 40. • Because of its location in the densely populated Bay area of 7 million people, a Hayward fault quake is likely to cause worse societal impacts than a San Andreas quake and be one of the nation's largest natural disasters.
  41. 41. DAMAGEDAMAGE PHYSICAL EFFECTS CAUSE SOCIETALPHYSICAL EFFECTS CAUSE SOCIETAL IMPACTS AND RISKIMPACTS AND RISK COLLAPSECOLLAPSE LOSS OFLOSS OF FUNCTIONFUNCTION ECONOMICECONOMIC LOSSLOSS RISKRISK
  42. 42. WHAT NEEDS TO BE ANTICIPATED (Continued)? • What kinds of buildings are at risk? • What kinds of basic, essential, and critical infrastructure are at risk? • What are the physical vulnerabilities?
  43. 43. • Potentially affecting 5 million people, a Hayward fault quake damages homes, schools, senior centers, hospitals, businesses, the Bay bridge, and the campus of University of California, Berkeley.
  44. 44. WHAT NEEDS TO BE ANTICIPATED (Continued)? • What are the social vulnerabilities? • What is the likely damage distribution? • What are the HAT ARE THE LIKELY CASUALTIES, SOCIO- ECONOMIC, AND ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS?
  45. 45. • Damage will be extensive to buildings and infrastructure. •The region's transportation infrastructure and water delivery systems are expected to take a major hit in a M7.0 or greater earthquake.
  46. 46. • A M7.0 earthquake on the Hayward fault will cause an estimated $210 billion dollars in damage.
  47. 47. DAMAGE: AUGUST 24 NAPA VALLEY EARTHQUAKE
  48. 48. DAMAGE TO HIGHWAY 12: AUGUST 24 NAPA VALLEY EARTHQUAKE
  49. 49. DAMAGE TO HIGHWAY 12: AUGUST 24 NAPA VALLEY EARTHQUAKE
  50. 50. CONCLUSION EVERY TIME AN EARTHQUAKE DISASTER OCCURS, WE HAVE NEW KNOWLEDGE TO ADD TO OUR “BOOKS OF KNOWLEDGE” ON ANTICIPATING FUTURE IMPACTS

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