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CHINA'S ECONOMIC RECOVERY Near-Term Remains Doubtful As Causal Role of Tianjin Port Disaster Ignored by Auto Industry and Wall Street

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"We project that market volatility will continue for months as it tries to adjust \to the black hole effect of a arguably permanent contraction of the China economy. Moreover, there is no expectation of the Dow's sustainable recovery to pre-Tianjin levels in the foreseeable future. Although the expected US interest rate hike and active market stabilizing interventions - inclusive of China's predatory US treasury bond sell-offs in its continuing efforts to supplant the dollar as the dominant currency - will have a tactical effect, volatility will be a constant. "
- Myron D. Stokes, Automotive/Aerospace Analyst (9/2/15)

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CHINA'S ECONOMIC RECOVERY Near-Term Remains Doubtful As Causal Role of Tianjin Port Disaster Ignored by Auto Industry and Wall Street

  1. 1. eMOTION! REPORTS.com Automotive/Aerospace Industries Systemic Intelligence www.emotionreports.com "eMOTION! REPORTS.com is well placed to influence those who shape the opinions of those who buy the industry's product, buy its stock, set the price of its stock, and who regulate them." M.D. Stokes, Publisher Luxury Vehicles Destroyed in the Aftermath of the Tianjin Explosion, 15 August, 2015 - Image: Mashable CHINA'S ECONOMIC RECOVERY Near-Term Remains Doubtful As Causal Role of Tianjin Port Disaster Ignored by Auto Industry and Wall Street
  2. 2. Luxury Vehicles Destroyed in the Aftermath of the Tianjin Explosion, 15 August, 2015 - Image: Mashable CHINA'S ECONOMIC RECOVERY Near-Term Remains Doubtful As Causal Role of Tianjin Port Disaster Ignored by Auto Industry and Wall Street "We project that market volatility will continue for months as it tries to adjust to the black hole effect of a arguably permanent contraction of the China economy. Moreover, there is no expectation of the Dow's sustainable recovery to pre-Tianjin levels in the foreseeable future. Although the expected US interest rate hike and active market stabilizing interventions - inclusive of China's predatory US treasury bond sell- offs in its continuing efforts to supplant the dollar as the dominant currency - will have a tactical effect, volatility will be a constant. " - Myron D. Stokes, Automotive/Aerospace Analyst (9/2/15)
  3. 3. May 1, 2016 Bloomfield Hills, MI - "As was noted in our 8/19/15 Harvard Business Review analysis , the destruction and sodium cyanide contamination of this port wiped out 58pct of China's export/import capacity, shut down the production lines of major carmakers like Hyundai, Toyota, Honda, VW and Renault; injured or killed dozens of corporate/port support personnel, killed thousands of fish in the Haihe River, and destroyed thousands of vehicles including Land Rover and Hyundai Equus luxury models. "The impact of this disaster is still being assessed in terms of the near, mid and long term, but what should be clear is the ripple effect to the global supply chain and more disturbingly, to China's industrio-economic growth, remains profound. In fact, the impact is so massive - exacerbated by 2 subsequent and major explosions at chemical plants in critical Shandong - we remain convinced in the viability of our original assessment the disasters were not accidental. "What continues to confound, astound and disturb our analytical team is - with few exceptions like Morgan-Stanley - Wall Street, GM, Ford, the auto industry at large and the world's major firms continue to ignore the true impact represented by Tianjin on their operations, profitability and thus, their market value. "We project that market volatility will continue for months as it tries to adjust to the black hole effect of a arguably permanent contraction of the China economy. Moreover, there is no expectation of the Dow's sustainable recovery to pre-Tianjin levels in the foreseeable future. Although the expected US interest rate hike and active market stabilizing interventions - inclusive of China's predatory US treasury bond sell-offs in its continuing efforts to supplant the dollar as the dominant currency - will have a tactical effect, volatility will be a constant. "Perhaps, the comprehensive client analysis provided by the Emergency Response team of London-based legacy Maritime law and reinsurance firm Holman Fenwick Willan as the disaster unfolded, will be considered required reading by C-suite and financial sector executives..." From © Holman Fenwick Willan LLP 2015. (HFW). "At the start of the nineteenth century, the Holman family were sailing-ship owners in Topsham, Devon, where, in 1832, they established the West of England Marine Insurance Association, a mutual hull insurance organisation. Six years later they formed The Exeter Shipping Insurance Association on a similar basis." August 2015 Analysis Excerpt: Supply chain disruption "Motorola, Toyota, Samsung, Nestlé, Honeywell, Coca-Cola, Bridgestone, Lafarge and GlaxoSmithKline all have substantial facilities near to the explosion. 285 of the Fortune Global 500 companies are reported to have an office in Tianjin. "Entire supply chains could be affected by the closure of industrial and processing facilities within the port. Some goods manufactured inland which would ordinarily go through the port for further processing or value-added services may need to be diverted elsewhere. Manufacturers which import components and/or raw materials into Tianjin may no longer be able to get access to them. This could cause very considerable loss of revenue and supply chain problems. Exporters may need to look to other ports as outlets for their goods and create new supply chain
  4. 4. relationships with freight forwarders, road hauliers, shipping lines and logistics operators." http://www.hfw.com/downloads/HFW-Tianjin-Port-explosion-August-2015-1.pdf Related: The Guardian - http://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/may/01/chinas-factories- grow-less-than-expected-raising-recovery-doubts Forbes - http://www.forbes.com/forbes/welcome/#3ee14e3b47cd Recommended descriptor: Wikipedia - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Port_of_Tianjin Additional reporting: Dr. Thomas J. Miller contributed to analysis research # # # Editor's note: "Global HeavyLift Holdings, Inc. Managing Director and eMOTION! REPORTS Publisher Myron D. Stokes is an award winning veteran automotive/aerospace industry analyst and spent several years as an industry correspondent for Newsweek, Newsweek Japan and Newsweek International. His work as a journalist with special emphasis on business and technology has been published in a variety of other major print mediums including the Detroit News, Changing Times Magazine, Auto Week and corporate publications. Over the years, he has provided major corporations and media groups with “deep background” analyses that have helped shape the direction of some of the most significant news stories and industry strategies." eMOTION! REPORTS.com (http://emotionreports.com http://emotionreportscom.blogspot.com/ ) is an automotive/aerospace industries research and analysis site targeting professionals within the academic, media, corporate and government sectors. The site also created a pathway through which white papers and other scholarly works such as "Crisis On Asimov: A Vision of 2085" by national security strategist Dr. Sheila Ronis; "Quantum Parallel: The Saint-Hilaire Quasiturbine as the Basis For Simultaneous Paradigm Shift in Vehicle Propulsion Systems" and "Super-Globalism: Strategies For Maintaining a Robust Industrial Base Through Technological, Policy and Process Improvement", could be presented to a broadened yet specific audience. Related: http://www.slideshare.net/GHHLLC2/richard-holbrookes-world-memories-of-a- newsweek-special-correspondent-a-quasibiblios-by-myron-d-stokes-6378374?related=1

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