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A SIGNIFICANTLY bigger than expected global wheat crop continues to drive wheat prices down – the bellwether Chicago futures contract recently trading levels not seen since mid-2010. European wheat prices haven’t fallen quite as quickly or as far, largely because EU wheat is being drawn into world export markets in record volumes. However, prices here have at least shed about 8.5% basis the Paris milling futures market where nearby deliveries dropped back to their October 2013 lows and new crop November to its harvest lows. The weakest European sector this month was UK feed wheat, prices of which fell on the London futures market to their cheapest since late 2011. At this stage, EU futures tell us that milling wheat will be about 4.5% cheaper still by late 2014 whereas the US markets ‘forecast’ prices recovering by about 6% by then. Based on the supply, demand and stocks outlook, many observers think the EU scenario more accurate.